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WRITTEN QUESTION TO THE MINISTER FOR TREASURY AND RESOURCES BY DEPUTY J. H. YOUNG OF ST BRELADE
ANSWER TO BE TABLED ON TUESDAY 9th SEPTEMBER 2014
Question
Will the Minister inform the Assembly of the latest forecast revenue surpluses and deficits for the years 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019, based on the financial and expenditure commitments which have been submitted for approval in the Budget 2015 and will he give his assessment of the implications of these forecasts for the future management of States finances?
Answer
The draft Budget 2015 provides a revised financial forecast to 2015 at Figure 10.1 page 55.
The work being carried out by officers on Long Term Revenue Planning is considering all aspects of existing expenditure budgets and the requests for additional funding from departments for the next Medium Term Financial Plan (MTFP) period 2016-2019, alongside the projections for States revenues. The work of the new Council of Ministers will be to consider which expenditure areas and services align with its strategic priorities and propose the allocation of available resources accordingly.
The Budget deals with 2015. It will be for the new Council of Ministers to propose appropriate tax and spending measures to deliver a sustainable MTFP for 2016-2019. The next Council of Ministers and Assembly will agree their priorities.
However, the draft Budget 2015 also provides, in Figure 12.8 on page 64, an indicative financial forecast for 2016 and 2017 as part of an indicative economic impact assessment.
This indicates a breakeven position on a comparable basis to the existing financial forecast and is based on the latest income forecasts which extend to 2017.
As stated in the draft Budget 2015, page 63, the current assumption is that the next MTFPs will follow a strategy of balanced budgets, but this will be a decision for the next Council of Ministers and States Assembly.