Migration and Population Data (P.120/2020): amendment (P.120/2020 Amd.) – amendment [P.120-2020 Amd.Amd.]

STATES OF JERSEY

MIGRATION AND POPULATION DATA (P.120/2020): AMENDMENT

(P.120/2020 AMD.) – AMENDMENT

Lodged au Greffe on 30th October 2020 by the Chief Minister

STATES GREFFE

2020  P.120 Amd.Amd.

MIGRATION AND POPULATION DATA (P.120/2020): AMENDMENT (P.120/2020 AMD.) – AMENDMENT

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1  PAGE 2, PARAGRAPH 1 –

For the words "deliver a Common Population Policy to the Assembly to be debated" substitute the words "publish an interim Population Policy".

2  PAGE 2, PARAGRAPH 2 – Delete the word "such".

3  PAGE 2, PARAGRAPH 3 –

For  the  words  "this  Population  Policy"  substitute  the  words "any  Common Population Policy".

CHIEF MINISTER

Note:  After the amendment, as amended by this amendment, the proposition would

read as follows –

THE STATES are asked to decide whether they are of opinion

1. that the Council of Ministers should publish an interim Population Policy before 31st December 2021;
2. that any such common policy on Population informs and underpins the planning assumptions in future Island Plans, and that any population targets in the Population Policy are matched in the Island Plan;
3. that any Common Population Policy should present sustainability data showing the infrastructural, educational, health-related, environmental and social requirements of the proposed population size across the period to 2070 and include an explicit prediction of the population size for 2030, 2040,  2050,  2060  and  2070  based  on  its  proposed  rate  of  tolerable population growth;
4. that  this  sustainability  data  should  incorporate  all  required  major infrastructure projects (in 10-year intervals) arising from the forecast rate of population growth, including but not limited to: the number of new primary and secondary schools, hospital facilities and staff accommodation, affordable homes for first-time buyers and for elderly residents, social housing, the required road maintenance and construction, the impact on carbon neutrality goals and the provision of utilities;

5. that this data should also include, for every 10-year interval across the period to 2070, any anticipated additional funding required for Income Support, pensions, Long-Term Care and all other contributory benefits;
6. that, as part of the development of the Population Policy, the public shall be consulted on its views regarding a sustainable population size across a 50-year period; a representative and proportional sample of the Island's population must be included, that being a sample whose gender balance, residential statuses, ages, ethnicities, and other key characteristics reflect that of the Island's overall population;
7. that the Population Policy should demonstrate reasonable and thorough consideration has been given to a net-zero inward migration policy and provide a clear rationale (with supporting data) for why such a policy has not been proposed, should that be the case;
8. to request the Council of Ministers to take the necessary steps to implement paragraphs (a) to (h) when developing a forthcoming Population Policy for debate by the States Assembly.

REPORT

This amendment to the amended P.120/2020 replaces the proposal to present a common population policy for debate during 2021. Seeking to achieve this timescale would not allow this important subject to be developed with the rigour and attention that it deserves.

The amendment provides an alternative outcome in the form of an interim population policy to be published before the end of 2021.

Existing commitment

The Chief Minister, in the foreword to Migration Control Policy' (P.137/2020), has already given the following commitment:

"Ministers will work  individually  and jointly  on this  project during 2021 providing a strong framework for the next Council of Ministers to develop its own population policy. If this proposition is adopted in December, we will then be in a position to produce an interim population policy in advance of the statutorily required policy that will be required under the proposed law changes. Following the election in 2022, the new Council of Ministers will be required to make full use of the new legal and political structures available to them and will be obliged to publish their full population proposals during 2022." (emphasis added)

It would be irresponsible to support the timing set out in P.120/2020. However, there is an existing commitment to work on a joint population policy in 2021 and to publish an interim policy.

Updated commitment

The Deputy 's desire to move to a population policy as soon as possible is acknowledged. The Chief Minister will commit to publishing an interim population policy by the end of December 2021. This will not have been subject to public consultation but will provide a full summary of all the progress made during 2021 and the likely options that could be developed and finalised by the next Council of Ministers.

Discussion

The development of a robust and sustainable population policy will have an impact across multiple government areas and will require difficult decisions from politicians and the public as to the balance between the competing demands of the economy, the environment and the community.

To provide for a debate before the end of 2021, a proposition would need to be lodged in early November. If this is based on a public consultation, the consultation exercise would need to start in early August to provide time for appropriate consultation and analysis. It is not considered realistic to:

• develop and implement the migration control proposals set out in P.137/2020;

• assemble and analyse all the data set out in P.120/2020;

• develop all of the economic and skills policies that will lie at the heart of a population policy;

• align the proposed draft population policy with all other government policies that it will affect and be affected by;

• undertake a public consultation on the draft policy;

• provide time for a Scrutiny review of the draft policy;

• agree a joint final policy based on the results of the data analysis, the public consultation and the Scrutiny findings; and

• prepare and lodge a proposition.

in the time available, particularly given the additional and unknown continued pressures of COVID-19.

Conclusion

The important political and public consultation and debate on this matter should not be squeezed into a few weeks to meet a deadline. This would not support the rigorous approach favoured by the Deputy . This amendment to publish an interim population policy before the end of 2021 will still set a challenging pace.

Members are asked to support this amendment and to reject part (a) of the proposition as amended.

Financial and manpower implications

There are no financial or manpower implications of this amendment.