Island Plan 2011: approval (P.48/2011): eleventh amendment (P.48/2011 Amd.(11)) – amendment.

STATES OF JERSEY

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ISLAND PLAN 2011: APPROVAL (P.48/2011): ELEVENTH AMENDMENT (P.48/2011 Amd.(11)) – AMENDMENT

Lodged au Greffe on 10th May 2011 by Deputy P.V.F. Le Claire of St. Helier

STATES GREFFE

2011   Price code: B  P.48 Amd.(11)Amd.

ISLAND PLAN 2011: APPROVAL (P.48/2011): ELEVENTH AMENDMENT (P.48/2011 Amd.(11)) – AMENDMENT

PAGE 2, PARAGRAPH (a) –

Delete field numbers 21A, 38, 38A, 39 and 59A.

DEPUTY P.V.F. LE CLAIRE OF ST. HELIER

REPORT

The Fields that I am asking to be deleted in this amendment to the 11th amendment by Deputy Gorst make up Samarès Nurseries, which is a site that is key to the supply of affordable family housing, sheltered housing and a potential new location for a Good Companions Club. The owners are willing sellers to the States of Jersey.

In removing these fields from this amendment, it will be possible to deliver these much-needed houses and community facilities without further complication in my view.

It will also require the approval of my subsequent amendment to the Island Plan, Amendment 12.

It is important to realize that there is considerable uncertainty about the proposed delivery of homes in the Revised Draft Island Plan, and in particular for the affordable housing sector.

Predicting  the  future  delivery  of  homes  is  never  an  exact  science,  because  it  is dependent on so many variables, for example –

• The preparedness of landowners to release their land
• Can the developers obtain financing?
• Are mortgages readily available for purchasers?
• What have been the short-term effects of the recession?

i.e. will the proposals deliver the required numbers of affordable and market homes?

There has also been a significant increase in the Housing Department's waiting list over the last 12 to 18 months, primarily due to tenants wishing to move from the private rental to social rental markets and potential First-Time Buyers (FTBs).

In the late 1980s there were demonstrations in the Royal Square of potential FTBs because the States were not allocating sufficient land for such accommodation.

Why additional sites are needed.

1. The 10 year predicted requirement for 4,000 homes, of which about 1,000 are affordable,  is  generally  accepted  (Table 6.2.  Revised  Draft  Island  Plan (RDIP-2011)).
2. Sites for approximately 350 homes are already designated (2002 Island Plan and 8 sites in P.75/2008 – first-time buyer and lifelong homes.
3. The Consultation  Draft  Island  Plan  (CDIP-2009)  made  provision  for 600-650 affordable  homes  through  a  combination  of  7 designated  sites (Policy H1) and the provision of affordable homes as a proportion of private residential developments (Policy H3).
4. There was considerable opposition to Policy H3, and genuine concerns in the short term at least, that it will act as a disincentive to developers, but more likely landowners, to bring sites forward because the policy hits land values. This may create a highly significant shortfall in the number of windfall' and

St. Helier town capacity' sites anticipated (predicted to be 3,200 homes over the Plan Period).

5. The 7 designated sites were put forward to provide 200-300 new affordable homes in the interim period before Policy H3 becomes established.
6. The Minister has removed 3 of the sites (Samarès, Longueville and Cooke's Nurseries) because of assurances he gave the Constables. It does not remove the need for the homes that would have gone on those sites (between 123 and 195 homes, depending on density, in the CDIP-2009).
7. The Examination  in Public  Inspectors  criticized  the  decision  to remove Samarès  and  Longueville,  because  they  accepted  the  need  to designate additional sites for affordable housing.
8. The Minister  has  not  accepted  their  recommendations.  Accordingly,  it  isnecessaryto designate additional sites for affordable housing. Alternate sites have been set out at paragraphs 6.59 and 6.60 of the RDIP-2011, but it will be some years before these come forward, and to deliver affordable homes on them  the  Public  will  have  to take  a  significant  hit'  on  their  previously assessed value (the anticipated receipts from which are intended to fund the States capital expenditure programme in the coming years).

Affordable Housing

One of the key identified objectives of the Island Plan is to ensure there is an adequate supply of new homes over the next 10 years, particularly for first-time buyers. The Island Plan therefore contains detailed projections as to the number of homes and the housing mix' required, taking into account the acute shortage of affordable housing and, in particular, the need to build family' homes (i.e. 3/4 bedroom houses). Samarès Nurseries was carefully considered by the professional civil servants employed by the Planning  Department  and  was  recommended  as  a  site  particularly  suitable  for development.  Their  recommendation  was  supported  by  the  independent  Planning Inspectors  who  led  the  Island  Plan  consultation  process.  The  final  report  of  the Inspectors noted that "The Inspectors conclude, with conviction, that the merits of this site are considerable. The site is well located in relation to the Built-up Area; it has good services (buses, schools, etc.); little damaging impact on the countryside, and is previously developed land which is falling into dereliction". It is also abundantly clear from the initial draft of the Island Plan that the development of Samarès Nurseries is crucial to meeting the objective of supplying affordable homes. This is because the site will yield as many homes in isolation as all of the other proposed sites put together. There are no better or more suitable sites available.

Demand Homelessness

It was interesting to see the new home for men, Sanctuary House, run by the Caring Hands Christian charity, opening this week in St. Aubin. It is supported by the ex- Chief Minister and within the first week it was full.

It is housing men from 19 to 66 years of age and it has a waiting list of 20 further men already who are waiting for access to a home (4th May 2011).

As you drive into town for a bit of shopping in King Street, it is sometimes too hectic a place to notice the homeless people, some of whom are walking alongside you and others who are picking food from the dustbins, but they are there.

There was opposition from residents in St. Aubin to this shelter when it was first raised, as people wanted it elsewhere. The same can be said about opponents to housing in this instance.

The reality is though, that there is a shortage and there will be a greater shortage in the future without more being built now.

States Housing

I contacted the Housing Department to ask about waiting lists for social housing. There are on the housing waiting list 10 families which are at the worst end of the spectrum with 3 families currently effectively classified as homeless.

The officers said that estimating forward for affordable housing' is complex (this term obviously includes all Category A housing, Social Rent, Homebuy, First-Time Buyer and over-55s).

Set out below is the current social housing need, the historic waiting lists and how this has increased once supply dried up in 2008 and the projected waiting lists (assuming current trends and existing supply provision).

The correlation between supply and waiting list level over the past 6 years is shown here.

(Data supplied by The Director of Strategic Development States Housing Department)

The correlation between supply and waiting list level over the past 6 years is shown here.

Looking forward, it is generally the supply uncertainty that complicates things and so we'd prefer to state demand as a range at this stage.

This is set out below. We have run 2 scenarios from our model.

A worst-case scenario which only assumes that those sites presently underway are delivered.  A  best-case  scenario  which  assumes  that  all  existing  zoned  sites  are delivered in the next 5 years.

2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016 Projected Year end

Waiting List (existing

sites underway)  530  608  732  872  1,014  1,160

Projected Year end

position (absolute best

case)  382  345  349  452  550  642 Mid-Point  456  477  541  662  782  901

Continued  2017  2018  2019  2020  2021 Projected Year end

Waiting List (existing sites

underway)  1,295  1,432  1,572  1,712  1,852

Projected Year end

position (absolute best

case)  739  836  933  1,029  1,125 Mid-Point  1,017  1,134  1,253  1,371  1,488

Either scenario is unlikely to be totally accurate and we are likely to see delivery somewhere in between. We have added a mid-point figure for that reason.

The IP suggests that 475 affordable homes will be delivered in the first 5 years of the plan (proposal 17 – page 242).

It should be noted that the model is updated monthly as new application and void turnover data is available. The numbers do therefore change and are likely to be sensitive to economic conditions.

Below is a list of the application numbers by bed type – only applicants who are successful in getting onto the waiting list are included here –

The Plan has not taken into account the fact that the population is increasing at a much faster rate than we have planned for. The 2002 Island Plan based its needs on a plan that set an increase of no more than 200 people a year. It has exceeded that number on average by 190 people every year since it was adopted. The average number of people

increasing in Jersey over the last 5 years has been 640, with an additional 250 births over deaths.

This Plan is worse. It sets the increase at 325 per year for all policies –

ISLAND PLAN 2011: APPROVAL – Lodged au Greffe on 29th March 2011 by the Minister for Planning and Environment (P.48/2011)

At the bottom of page 8 it defines the criteria for all of the policies in the Plan!

5.3  The States of Jersey has considered and adopted a strategy to respond to and best manage the demographic shift in the Island's population, represented by the  ageing  society.  In  doing  this,  it  has  addressed  the  issue  of  inward migration  and  the  Island  Plan  responds  to  this  key  strategic  direction. Specifically, in the short term, the States have adopted a policy which allows maximum  inward  migration  at  a  rolling  5 year  average  of  no  more  than 150 heads of household per annum (an overall increase of c.325 people per annum). This is to be reviewed and reset every 3 years. And it is this that has been used to assess and formulate all of the planning policies contained in the Island Plan, such as, for example, the level of provision that needs to be made to meet the potential housing demand over the Plan period.

and  over  the  last  4  years  that  number  has  been  700 people  on  average,  with  an additional  250  every  year  of  births  over  deaths  which  takes  that  number  to,  on average, 950 a year.

(Data supplied below from Head of States of Jersey, Statistics Unit, April 2011)

Scenario 1 as per Draft Island Plan, +325 people per year (+150 households) sees population peak at around 97,000 in 2035-2040 ...... and then stay around 96,000 until 2060.

(Data supplied below from Head of States of Jersey, Statistics Unit, April 2011)

Scenario 2  as  per  actual  numbers  of  people  arriving,  +700 people  per  year (+325 households) see population increase steadily ...... to 108,000 by 2035 ...... and continuing to rise to 123,000 by 2060.

The Plan as tabled by the Minister, Senator F.E. Cohen, and his 2 Assistant Ministers, Deputy R.C. Duhamel of St. Saviour and Deputy C.H. Egré of St. Peter , will fail to produce the requirements without cramming higher densities into St. Helier .

The Plan as tabled by the Minister and his Assistants will fail in many policy areas, as only half the numbers have been included that should have been.

It will fail for many reasons on many issues and which ones first will be a matter of debate, but one thing is for certain: it will fail on the provision of housing, especially Category A housing.

And it will fail in all areas of affordable housing', which includes all Category A housing, Social Rent, Homebuy, First-Time Buyer and over-55s.

Having discussed Deputy I.J. Gorst of St. Clement 's other amendments for a netball court, I was surprised to hear that he had not mentioned the 30 or so Category B homes that he says are required to deliver this sports facility, and wonder where the extra protection he mentions he is seeking in this amendment is being guaranteed in his own proposals for the wealthy and their houses!

Financial and manpower implications

There are no financial or manpower implications arising from this amendment to Amendment 11.