Residential land availability at January 2012.

Residential land availability

at January 2012

Preface

The purpose of this report is to provide more up-to-date knowledge on housing supply, to allow comparisons with identified requirements for new homes in the Island Plan, and to assist in ensuring that an adequate supply of suitable housing will be available to meet the community's needs.

It is the intention to provide regular monitoring reports on housing land availability and the performance of related planning policies over the Plan period of the 2011 Island Plan.

Policy and Projects Team, Department of the Environment September 2012

Contents

Page No.

1. Introduction 1
2. Summary of findings 1
3. Future considerations 1
4. Defining Category A and Category B Homes 2
5. Identified housing requirements 3
6. Potential housing supply identified in the Island Plan 5
7. Recent completions in the qualified sector 7

Annual completions 7 Distribution of completions 8 Completions by type and size 8

8. Outstanding commitments in the qualified sector  9 Commitments by type 9 Distribution of commitments 10 Commitments by type and size 13 Outstanding commitments for older persons' housing 14
9. Completions and outstanding commitments in the  15 unqualified sector
10. Comparing known housing supply with overall  15 requirements for homes in the qualified sector
11. Key issues arising 17
12. Unqualified sector 17

Tables

1. Estimated demand for housing over the period 2011-2020 3

2. Estimated 5 year demand for housing over the period 2012-2016 4

3. Supply of homes provided for in the 2011 Island Plan, 2011-2020 5

4. Estimated supply of homes from known sources, 2012-2016 6

5. Housing completions in the qualified sector 7

6. Net completions of new homes in the qualified sector, by parish, 2002 – end  8 2011

7. Net completions of new homes in qualified sector, by type and size, 2011 9

8. Outstanding commitments for new homes in qualified sector, at start 2012 10

9. Housing commitments for net new homes in qualified sector, by parish, @  11 start 2012

10. Outstanding commitments for new qualified sector homes, by type and size,  13

@ start 2012

11. Outstanding commitments for older persons' homes @ start 2012 14

12. Comparison between estimated requirements for new homes, 2012-2016 and  16 supply

Appendices

1. Schedule of social rented housing completions, since 2002 19
2. Schedule of purpose-built first-time buyer housing completions, since 2002 24
3. Schedule of purpose-built open market lifelong homes completions, since  26 2009
4. Schedule of social rented housing property sales on the open market, by type,  27 2004-2011
5. Schedule of social rented housing property sales to social rent tenants (as  29 first-time buyers), by Type, 2007 - 2011
6. Schedule of known completions due for social rented housing, by type, by end  30 2016
7. Schedule of known completions due for first-time buyer housing, by type, by  34 end 2016
8. Schedule of known completions due for open market lifelong homes, by type,  36 by end 2016
9. Schedule of known completions due for social rented lifelong homes, by type,  37 by end 2016
10. Schedule of projected sales of Housing property to first-time buyers, by type,  38 by end 2016
11. Status of zoned Category A sites at 27 July 2012 39

1. Introduction

The purpose of this report is to provide more up-to-date knowledge on housing supply, to allow comparisons with identified requirements for new homes in the Island Plan, and to assist in ensuring that an adequate supply of suitable housing will be available to meet the community's needs.

The information provided here describes the situation at the start of 2012 and is the latest in a series of such reports on residential land availability.

Following the approval of the 2011 Island Plan, it is the intention to provide regular monitoring reports on housing land availability and the performance of related planning policies.

2. Summary of findings

The evidence available on housing supply suggests that the Island is in a good position to meet overall demand for new homes during the next 5 years up to the end of 2016. Current outstanding housing commitments and other identified sources of housing supply considerably exceed the overall requirement for some 1,600 homes during the period (i.e. by nearly 900 homes). This is largely down to an excess in land availability for private Category B development. Nevertheless, the evidence also suggests that the existing and potential overall supply for Category A homes at this time will exceed identified requirement for 500 homes up to the end of 2016 by approximately 170 homes.

Despite the findings of this review and the apparent generally favourable land availability situation at the start of 2012, there can be no room for complacency. There are some significant challenges facing the Island at this time in relation to housing provision, which require more detailed consideration. Furthermore, it is important to keep the housing situation under close scrutiny, to provide regular up-to-date information, identify any unforeseen changes in circumstances and ensure that such changes are responded to effectively and in a timely manner.

3. Future considerations

Examples of key areas which present significant challenges and require more detailed consideration, including:

• The provision of affordable homes for residents and key workers;
• The future role of social rented housing (in the light of the Whitehead Report' and the Housing Department White Paper Achieving decent homes – An affordable housing framework for the future');
• Matching the type and size of homes supplied to updated identified requirements;
• Planning to meet the future housing needs of a rapidly growing elderly population; and
• The continuing economic downturn and the current depressed nature of the local housing market and development industry.

Housing affordability remains the most important issue requiring attention at this time, given the current difficulties for people on low or modest incomes

gaining access to suitable housing that they can afford[1]. To assist the procurement of required affordable homes, the Department of Environment is currently conducting a review of the draft supplementary planning guidance for Island Plan Policy H3 (Affordable Housing), including the associated standard viability assessment model for new housing developments. It is doing so in consultation with the construction industry.

Work is also currently being undertaken with the Director of Corporate Policy (Chief Minister's Department) and the Housing Department to create a Strategic Housing Unit (SHU) within the States of Jersey. This will set Island wide strategic housing policy and will undertake necessary research into housing affordability and other key issues, such as accommodation for key workers and the ageing population.

On the demand side, there is a need for more up-to-date in-depth information about housing requirements to help ensure appropriate delivery of new homes across all tenures. When it is comprehensively established, the new housing gateway', currently administered by the Housing Department (until the SHU is set up), will help provide better information about the numbers of affordable homes required (including social rented, intermediate housing, designated first-time buyer, and self-build or other housing developed specifically at reduced costs and available through the gateway). The latest Jersey Annual Social Survey' will also provide valuable up-to-date and detailed information on housing requirements, including the types and sizes of homes required in each tenure group.

4. Defining Category A and Category B homes

The terms Category A and Category B homes are used throughout this report. They have been in common usage in the Jersey planning and housing sectors since they were first introduced in the 1987 Island Plan to distinguish between need' (Category A) and demand' (Category B) housing requirements. Category A includes: social rented homes provided by the States, a Parish or a housing trust; purpose-built homes for first-time buyers; and, more recently, lifelong homes' for over 55's and affordable intermediate housing (i.e. former Jersey Homebuy homes or their equivalent). Category B is intended to denote private sector demand housing and covers all other housing not included in the Category A definition.

Although the above definitions are used for the purposes of this report, it should be noted that there are current moves to amend them to reflect changing circumstances. For example, consideration is being given to removing conventional first-time buyer homes from Category A, because of the near parity between their price and that of equivalent market housing. It is argued that first-time buyer homes per se are not currently reflective of housing need and that the emphasis should be placed on providing homes that are affordable'.

5. Identified housing requirements

The 2011 Island Plan includes estimations of the total demand for housing over the plan period (2011-2020), as set out in Table 1. The estimates were generated by the Statistics Unit and were primarily based on a combination of:

• Population modelling – to generate estimates of the Island's future population, assuming an inward migration scenario of +150 heads of household per annum; and
• Average household size modelling.

For the purposes of this work, potential future private household numbers (i.e. excluding households living in communal establishments) were taken literally as an expression of demand for homes, by assuming that each additional household represents an increase in demand for a housing unit. Provision was also made for latent' demand for homes, using base information from the 2007 Housing Needs Survey, in order to establish total demand.

Table 1 indicates an identified requirement for some 4,000 new homes over the ten year period, of which half are required by the end of 2015. These requirement figures will be reviewed and updated towards the end of the year, when the Statistics Unit will be carrying out further population modelling, based on the 2011 Census and the findings from housing need-based questions in the current Jersey Annual Social Survey'. It is anticipated that this work should produce up-to-date estimates of housing requirements based on both tenure and size.

Table 1: Estimated demand for housing over the period 2011 to 2020

Source: States of Jersey - Island Plan 2011, Table 6.2, p.212

This report looks to address land availability over the five year period from the start of 2012 to the end of 2016. The estimated demand for this period is shown in Table 2 and has been calculated by:

• rolling forward the Island Plan estimates for additional dwellings between 2011 and 2015 on a pro rata basis; and
• factoring in known dwelling completions up to the end of 2011.

Table 2: Estimated 5 year demand for housing over the period 2012-2016

Notes:

*1. These 2010 completions were not taken into account when the identified requirement figures were

rolled forward during the Island Plan Review process.

*2. This includes some Category B homes that will have contributed to meeting f-t-b needs. *3. In 2011, 30% of all share transfer flats (1 and 2 bed) were sold to first-time buyers (90 no.) –

source: Statistics Unit

Housing requirements for the five year period 2012-2016 are estimated to number 1,600 homes. The average annual building rate required to deliver these estimated requirements for new homes is 320 homes per year.

6. Potential housing supply identified in the Island Plan

The 2011 Island Plan identifies a range of supply sources which can potentially generate over 2,400 new homes during the first five year period 2011-2015 and over 4,600 new homes during the full 10 year plan period. These supply sources are set out in Table 3 below.

It can be seen that heavy reliance is placed on the opportunities presented by the St. Helier Waterfront, town regeneration and private windfall developments located elsewhere in the built-up area.

Table 3: Supply of homes provided for in the 2011 Island Plan, 2011-2020.

*1 This is an outdated figure, in that only two sites remained to be completed at the start of 2011, with an estimated yield of 41 homes (see Appendix 12).

*2 This refers to an estimated loss of the total number of units associated with the planned re- development and upgrading of old outworn housing estates owned and managed by the States of Jersey Housing Department.

Source: States of Jersey – Island Plan, 2011, Table 6.3, p.219

For the purposes of this report, the estimated supply of homes set out in Table 3 for the first five years of the Island Plan has been rolled forward to cover the five year period 2012-2016. The details are included in Table 4, which estimates the housing supply from known sources to be approximately 360 Category A homes and over 1,850 Category B homes.

Table 4: Estimated supply of homes from known sources, 2012-2016 (N.B. Island Plan estimates rolled forward)

Notes:

*1. See Appendix 11 – Status of zoned Category A sites.

*2. From affordable homes policy H3.

*3 This refers to an estimated loss of the total number of units associated with the planned re-

development and upgrading of old outworn housing estates owned and managed by the States of Jersey Housing Department.

*4 Sites at Hotel Rex, Salisbury Crescent, and Gardener House/Sussex House.

7. Recent completions in the qualified sector

Annual completions

Table 5 shows the net number of completions of new homes in the qualified sector since 2002 (i.e. the adoption of the 2002 Island Plan) and allows a comparison with earlier trends.

Table 5: Housing completions in qualified sector

*1 see Appendix 1 for details; *2 see Appendix 2 for details; *3 includes lodging and staff accommodation; *4 excludes lodging and staff accommodation; *5 includes Jersey Homebuy; *6 includes social rental

lifelong homes

In 2011, despite the ongoing economic downturn, the number of private Category B homes completions rose considerably and to record levels (583 homes). This rise is in stark contrast to the reduced number of net Category B completions which had been a feature of the preceding three years.

Unfortunately, there was a net decrease in the number of purpose-built Category A homes completed in 2011 (-7 homes), mirroring the weak performance in this sector in 2010.

Looking in overall terms, it is clear that residential construction work over the past ten years since 2002 has been impressive, resulting in nearly 5,300 new homes. The average building rate during the last ten years of some 528 new homes per year is very healthy and significantly exceeds the average rate of completions achieved in the preceding 16 years (366) during the life of the 1987 Island Plan and the target rate set in the 2011 Island Plan (400).

The average rate for purpose-built Category A and Category B homes during the 10 years to the end of 2011 was approximately 150 and 380 homes per year respectfully. However, these figures take no account of the proportion of the completions currently included in Category B private developments, which will have contributed to meeting identified Category A requirements.

Distribution of completions

Most of the net increase in homes over this 10 year period (63%) was in the urban parishes of St. Helier (46%), St. Saviour (7%) and St. Clement (10%), as indicated in Table 6 below. This is very much in line with the spatial strategies' for new development set out in the 2002 and 2011 Island Plans, which promote more sustainable development concentrated in urban areas.

Table 6: Net completions of new homes in the qualified sector, by parish, 2002– end 2011

*1 excluding contribution from private Category B developments.

Completions by type and size

Table 7 gives an indication of the types and sizes of the homes which were completed for Category A and Category B purposes in 2011. The majority of completions (86%) were 1- and 2-bed homes and nearly all of these were flats. This mirrors the situation prior to 2007 and marks a change from 2009 and 2010 which saw a fairly even spread between flat and house completions and from 2007 and 2008 when the great majority of completed homes were houses.

Table 7: Net completions of new homes in qualified sector, by type and size, 2011

*1 includes apartments, studios, bedsits and maisonettes; *2 includes bungalows and cottages

8. Outstanding commitments in the qualified sector

Commitments by type

Table 8 provides details of outstanding commitments for new homes in the qualified sector' at the end of 2011. It illustrates good levels of commitments (i.e. approx. 2,850 homes), which combined with recent completions, comfortably exceed the target requirements for new homes in the first part of the 2011 Island Plan period up to the end of 2016. Of course, it is relevant to note that the realisation of these commitments is not entirely within the control of the Department of the Environment and will undoubtedly be influenced by the wider economic situation and commercial decisions taken by landowners and the development industry. The outstanding commitments include:

• the 582 Category B homes under construction at the end of 2011;
• a proportion of both the nearly 1800 Category B homes with existing consents, which had yet to start (supplemented by an unknown number of proposed homes which will be granted consent during the five year period 2012- 2016);
• virtually all the 99 outstanding commitments for first time buyer homes (whether or not they were under construction at the start of 2012);
• the commitments for Lifelong homes (approx. 400 homes) and for other social rented homes under construction (approx. 60 homes).

The commitments for other social rented homes during the period show a net gain of only 13 homes, which reflects the Housing Department's ongoing programme of redeveloping its outworn housing developments.

Table 8: Outstanding commitments for new homes in qualified sector, at start 2012

*1 net of permissions which have not been advanced for 4 years or more; *2 see Appendix 7 for details ; *3 see Appendix 8 for details; *4 see Appendix 9 for details; *5 see Appendix 6 for details; *6 These figures

take no account of the potential 160 or so owner occupied homes which would be released when the owners downsize to open market Lifelong homes.

As can be seen from Appendices 6 - 9, the commitment figures for Category A homes rely to a significant degree on:

• the remnants of development sites rezoned for the purpose under Policy H2 of the 2002 Island Plan;
• the remaining sites zoned by the States in July 2008, primarily for Lifelong Homes (P.75/2008) and included in the 2011 Island Plan; and
• States owned sites which are or will be surplus to requirements.

The current status of the first two groups of sites is outlined in Appendix 11. Distribution of commitments

Table 9 illustrates the availability of housing commitments by parish. As with completions over the last 10 years, most of the commitments are

concentrated in the main urban parishes (73%), including St. Helier (59%) and St. Saviour (12%). The low level of net commitments in St. Clement (2%) is due, in part, to losses of homes associated with redevelopment and refurbishment of outworn housing.

Table 9: Housing commitments for net new homes in qualified sector, by parish @ start 2012

Commitments by type and size

Table 10 gives an indication of the types and sizes of the homes to be provided from known Category A and Category B commitments at the start of 2012. The commitments cover a range of dwelling types and include approximately 1,800 flats (63%) and approximately 1,060 houses (37%). The evidence also suggests that currently in the pipeline, there are significant additional supplies of 1- and 2-bedroom accommodation, 81% of which are flats and 73% of which are private Category B homes. There are also reasonably healthy supplies of 3-bedroom and above family homes (80% of which are houses and 61% of which are private Category B homes).

Table 10: Outstanding commitments for new qualified sector homes, by type and size, at start 2012

*1 includes apartments, studios, bedsits and maisonettes; *2 includes bungalows and cottages

Outstanding commitments for older persons' housing

At the beginning of 2012 there were outstanding commitments for approximately 400 homes aimed at the older members of the community. These might be variously described as Lifelong Homes or retirement homes and they are either for sale in the private sector or provided in the social rented sector (i.e. by Parishes, Trusts and the States). The homes in question are set out in Table 11.

Table 11: Outstanding commitments for older persons' homes @ start 2012

* This does not include redevelopments and refurbishments at existing Housing Department sites, which are producing numbers of units aimed at older, less mobile members of the community.

9. Completions and outstanding commitments in the unqualified sector

There is currently a lack of good, comprehensive data on the supply of non- qualified accommodation (including Registered Lodging Houses, private lodgings with 5 or less lodgers and staff accommodation) and this is likely to remain the case until the new system for monitoring and regulating migration is properly up and running. A description of the situation, based on the limited information available at the time (including the Lodging House Inspector's 2009 report) was set out in An Interim Review of Residential Land Availability', Planning and Environment Department, 2010.

10. Comparing known housing supply with overall requirements for homes in the qualified sector

The figures in Table 12 look to apply known and likely housing supply to estimated requirements for new homes during the five year period between 2012 and 2016.

It can be seen that, in broad terms, the known outstanding commitments and identified supply sources more than match the identified total requirements up to the end of 2016. In fact, they greatly exceed identified total requirements by the order of 1,000 homes. This is largely down to an excess of land availability for private Category B development. The potential supply of Category A homes, however, is shown to exceed identified requirement by some 170 homes.

It is important to emphasise that the conclusions reached from Table 12 rely heavily on the following housing yield assumptions:

• new homes will continue to arise in good numbers from town regeneration and the St Helier Waterfront;
• there will be a continuing healthy supply of private windfall developments elsewhere in the built-up area; and
• all the remaining sites zoned for Lifelong Homes and First-time Buyer homes in P.75/2008, will come forward for development (The current status of these sites is given in Appendix 11).

It should also be acknowledged that the reliance placed by the States on private developers to provide need housing on zoned sites has implications for delivery times. It means that the decision about when to develop sites is a matter for the land owner and the developer and this can be affected by all manner of influences, including availability of development funding, views on the market, availability of resources to undertake development and constraints imposed by planning policies and obligation agreements. This together with the recent economic downturn and more restrictive mortgage lending requirements have accounted for the delays experienced in advancing a number of allocated sites and approved developments.

Table 12: Comparison between estimated requirements for new homes, 2012 – 2016 and supply

Notes:

*1. This takes no account of:

• Cat B consents not commenced at start 2012 but which will complete by end of 2016;
• Cat B consents which will be granted and could complete in the period.

However, it does include some Category B homes that will contribute to meeting f-t-b needs.

*2. Table 4 estimates a potential yield of 66 Category A homes and 717 Category B homes in the town

between 2012 and 2016. 87 Category B homes are already accounted for as being under construction at the end of 2011. The sites include: Sunshine Hotel (17 units), Wesley Chapel (57 units) and Sacre Coeur (13 units).

*3. Table 4 shows an estimated yield for 910 private windfall units over the 5 years between 2012 and

2016. 374 homes are already accounted for on sites outside St. Helier , as being under construction at the end of 2011. This leaves a potential supply of 536 homes not accounted for. The Island Plan affordable housing policy will have some impact in the timeframe. It is anticipated that this will contribute the 110 affordable homes required during the period.

*4. Table 4 shows an estimated yield of 339 homes on St Helier Waterfront over the 5 years between

2012 and 2016. 43 homes at Castle Quays are already accounted for as being under construction at the end of 2011. This leaves a potential supply of 296 homes not accounted for. The balance is likely to be met from outstanding permits for Zephyrus (59 homes) and Caste Quays Phase II (280 homes). At some point in the future, there will also be the development of the Esplanade Quarter (388 homes).

*5. The 2011 Island Plan estimates a net loss of 300 social rented homes between 2011 and 2015,

associated with planned redevelopment and upgrading of old outworn housing estates. The Housing Department has previously advised that this figure should probably be revised down to 100-150 units, given where it is currently with its refurbishment programme and taking into account recent losses and planned losses over the first 5 year period of the Island Plan.

*6. The provision above the target figure is likely to be more if one takes into account that certain

planned private Category B developments are likely to contribute directly to meeting some first- time buyer needs.

*7. Island Plan Policy H1 requires planning permissions to be secured for 150 affordable homes on

States owned land within 2 years of the Plan's adoption. The policy specifically identifies 5 sites in Public ownership, including: Le Coin (not advanced), former JCG site (detailed planning application being prepared); former D'Hautrée School site (not advanced); South Hill Offices (to be subject of a Master Plan); and the Summerland and Ambulance Station sites. In June 2012, outline planning applications was submitted for:

• the Summerland Factory (PP/2012/0832), proposing 85 apartments and 9 townhouses; and
• the States of Jersey Ambulance Service HQ (PP/2012/0825), proposing 76 apartments.

It is realistic to expect that the majority of these homes will be delivered at the beginning of the second 5-year Island Plan period.

There are other Public owned sites which may come forward, including Belle Vue (Planning Permit for 55 affordable and soc. rented units - accounted for elsewhere).

11. Key issues arising

Notwithstanding the relatively healthy overall land availability position, there are a number of housing issues which present challenges for the Island and require further consideration. These issues have previously been addressed in An Interim Review of Residential Land Availability', Planning Department, 2010 and include:

• the provision of affordable homes' for residents and key workers;
• the future role of social rented housing, in the light of the Whitehead Report' and the Housing Department White Paper Achieving Decent Homes – An affordable housing framework for the future';
• the need to identify the type and size of homes required and to match these with supply; and
• planning to meet the future housing needs of a rapidly growing elderly population.

12. Unqualified sector

This matter is also addressed in An Interim Review of Residential Land Availability', Planning Department, 2010. Assessing the current position continues to be hampered by a lack of available data. However, from the evidence available at the time, the above report concludes that there seems no reason why the market cannot continue to be successful in meeting estimated requirements in the foreseeable future.

Appendix 1

Schedule of social rented housing completions since 2002

Appendix 2

Schedule of purpose built first time buyer housing completions since 2002

Appendix 3

Schedule of purpose built open market lifelong homes completions since 2009

Schedule of social rented housing property sales on the open market, by type, 2004- 2011