Residential land availability at January 2013.

Residential land availability

at January 2013

R.115/2013

Preface

The purpose of this report is to provide more up-to-date knowledge on housing supply over the next five years, to allow comparisons with identified requirements for new homes in the Island Plan, and to assist in ensuring that an adequate supply of suitable housing will be available to meet the community's needs.

It is the intention to provide regular monitoring reports on housing land availability and the performance of related planning policies over the Plan period of the 2011 Island Plan.

Policy and Projects Team, Department of the Environment September 2013

Contents

Page No.

1. Introduction  1
2. Summary of findings  1
3. Defining Category A and Category B Homes  3
4. Identified housing requirements  5
5. Housing requirements for next five years  7
6. Potential housing supply identified in the Island Plan  7
7. Housing supply for the next five years  10
8. Recent completions  11

 Annual completions  11

Distribution of completions  12

Completions by type and size  13

9. Outstanding commitments  14

Commitments by type  14

Distribution of commitments  15

Commitments by type and size  17

Outstanding commitments for older persons' housing  18

10. Completions and outstanding commitments in the  18 unqualified sector
11. Performance in meeting 2011 Island Plan housing  18 requirements
12. Comparing known housing supply with overall  21 requirements for homes in the next five years
13. Future considerations  23

Tables

1. Estimated demand for housing over the period 2011-2020  5
2. Estimated demand for housing over the period 2013 to 2020  6
3. Estimated five year demand for housing over the period 2013-2017  7
4. Supply of homes provided for in the 2011 Island Plan, 2011-2020  8
5. Supply of homes 2013-2020  9
6. Supply of homes 2013-2017  10
7. Housing completions in the qualified sector  12
8. Net completions of new homes in the qualified sector, by parish, 2002–end 2012  13
9. Net completions of new homes in qualified sector, by type and size, 2012  13
10. Outstanding commitments for new homes, at start 2013  14
11. Housing commitments for net new homes, by parish, @ start 2012  16
12. Outstanding commitments for new homes, by type and size, @ start 2013  18
13. Outstanding commitments for older persons' homes @ start 2013  19
14. Performance against demand for housing in first five years of the Island Plan  20
15. Comparison between estimated requirements for new homes, 2013-2017 and  21 predicted supply

Appendices

1. Schedule of social rented housing completions, since 2002  25
2. Schedule of purpose-built first-time buyer housing completions, since 2002  30
3. Schedule of purpose-built open market lifelong homes completions, since 2009  33
4. Schedule of social rented housing property sales on the open market, by type,  34 2004-2012
5. Schedule of social rented housing property sales to social rent tenants (as first- 36 time buyers), by type, 2007 - 2012
6. Schedule of known completions due for social rented housing, by type, by end  38 2017
7. Schedule of known completions due for first-time buyer housing, by type, by end  41 2017
8. Schedule of known completions due for open market lifelong homes, by type, by  42 end 2017
9. Schedule of known completions due for social rented lifelong homes, by type, by  43 end 2017
10. Schedule of projected sales of social rented housing property to tenants, by type,  44 by end 2017
11. Known major sites with potential to deliver homes after 2017  45
12. Status of sites previously zoned for Category A sites (at 9th September 2013)  49

1. Introduction

The purpose of this report is to provide more up-to-date knowledge on housing supply, to allow comparisons with identified requirements for new homes in the Island Plan, and to assist in ensuring that an adequate supply of suitable housing will be available to meet the community's needs over the next five years.

The information provided here describes the situation at the start of 2013 and is the latest in a series of monitoring reports on residential land availability and the performance of related planning policies.

One of the main advantages of keeping the housing situation under close scrutiny is that it allows timely and appropriate responses to be made to any previously unseen changes in circumstances.

This report is written in the light of:

A re-estimation of housing requirements for the remainder of the Island Plan period, by the States of Jersey Statistics Unit, based on population and household modelling using the 2011 Census figures and on the findings of the 2012 Housing Needs Survey;

The States Strategic Plan priority objective to ensure that all Island residents are adequately housed;

The Council of Ministers' recently restated aims to boost the supply of affordable homes for social rental and purchase;

The recent decision of the Minister for Planning and Environment not to pursue Island Plan Policy H3, which required applications for new private residential developments over a certain size to allocate a proportion of homes for affordable social rental or purchase;

The Council of Ministers' decision to bring forward for rezoning sites set aside in Policy H1 of the 2011 Island Plan as a potential alternative means of meeting identified needs for affordable homes; and

The Minister for Planning and Environment's current proposed revisions to the Housing Chapter of the 2011 Island Plan, to address the above points.

2. Summary of findings

In February 2013, the Council of Ministers requested the Minister for Planning and Environment to identify sites with the potential for re-zoning to facilitate the short-term supply of affordable homes. The request has been addressed as part of the current proposed revisions to the 2011 Island Plan, which were drafted for consultation purposes in July 2013. These events have informed the findings of this report.

The evidence available on housing supply suggests that the Island will be in a good position to meet identified overall demand for new homes during the next five years. This is based on the assumption that certain private sites will be brought forward for rezoning to provide Category A affordable homes (see Section 12).

Current outstanding housing commitments and other sources of housing supply identified in proposed revisions to the Housing Chapter of the Island Plan (including proposals for rezoning), should be sufficient to meet identified requirements for Category B market housing and could exceed requirements for Category A affordable homes over the next five years (at about 2,250) by the order of some 280 homes, providing a buffer of about 12%. UK planning guidance[1] suggests local planning authorities should aim to provide a buffer of between 5-20% in their five year housing land supply, so Jersey's position is considered to be reasonable in comparison.

The Category B predictions rely on fairly conservative estimates of potential supply from private windfall developments in the town of St. Helier and elsewhere in the built-up area.

In terms of the anticipated provision of Category A homes over the next five years, it is considered that there is a supply of over 980 dwellings, set against an estimated demand, between 2013 and 2017, of 700 homes, providing a potential buffer of around 40%.

In addition to the sites which are being proposed for rezoning in the 2011 Island Plan interim review (i.e. with a potential yield of approximately 190 affordable homes by the end of 2017 out of 290 in total to the end of the Plan period in 2020), the anticipated supply of Category A homes relies heavily on assumed yields from:

• the timely redevelopment of various States owned housing sites (approx. 390 homes, excluding the Summerland Factory and Ambulance Station HQ sites); and
• the development of outstanding sites already zoned for Lifelong Homes and First-time Buyer homes (approx. 296 homes, including 126 open market lifelong homes).

It is also relevant to note that this supply includes the provision of over 125 open market Lifelong homes for the over-55s. Under the proposed change to the definition of Category A housing, set out in the interim review of the 2011 Island Plan, these homes would not be included as contributing to the supply of Category A affordable homes as they are unlikely to truly affordable', based on the proposed new definition (i.e. accessible to people on or below the median income).

The scale of any potential buffer of supply of Category A affordable homes is thus considered to be more realistically assessed at just over 20%, relative to estimated demand over this five year period.

This supply of Category A homes is also predicated on the approval of those sites proposed for rezoning to meet the need for Category A affordable homes in the 2011 Island Plan interim review: this is, of course, not certain. In order to deliver, these sites must first go through the formal Island Plan Review process, including public consultation and an Examination in Public, before obtaining States approval and the necessary planning permission.

Given the chronic need for affordable homes in Jersey, the buffer in the provision of Category A homes relative to anticipated demand should be welcomed on the basis that:

it would help to provide affordable homes for those least able to secure adequate housing for themselves (e.g. social rented accommodation and affordable homes for purchase) sooner rather than later;

it would provide an element of flexibility to allow for loss of certain assumed supply sources, lesser yields than anticipated and time slippage on various development sites.

any surplus' land availability can, be rolled forward to meet identified needs in the years following 2017.

Despite the findings of this review and the apparent generally favourable land availability situation at the start of 2013, there can be no room for complacency. The findings are based on various assumptions about potential supply, which can not all be guaranteed at this time. There are also some significant challenges facing the Island in relation to the continuing difficult economic circumstances and the ongoing problems affecting the local housing market and the development industry, which will require on-going consideration and continued scrutiny (see Section 13).

The five year land supply situation for Category A homes could be improved still further, if the development of the Summerland and Ambulance Station sites could be brought forward earlier, as a consequence of the recent decision to approve relocation of the Police Station HQ to Green Street. Conversely, however, the situation could be significantly less favourable, if the States decide against the proposed rezoning of land for Category A affordable homes and/or open market over 55's Lifelong homes are no longer counted as meeting Category A needs.

3. Defining Category A and Category B homes

The terms Category A and Category B homes are used throughout this report. They have been in common usage in the Jersey planning and housing sectors since they were first introduced in the 1987 Island Plan to distinguish between need' (Category A) and demand' (Category B) housing requirements.

Historically, Category A housing has included: social rented homes (provided by the States, a Parish or a housing trust); purpose-built homes for first-time buyers; and, more recently, lifelong homes' for over 55's (social rented and open market); and affordable intermediate housing (i.e. former Jersey Homebuy homes or their equivalent). Category B has included private sector demand housing (or market housing') and has effectively been used to address all other housing not included in the Category A definition.

Current proposals to amend the Housing Chapter in the Island Plan, now seek to redefine Category A and B housing to reflect the aims of the 2012 Strategic Plan, which most notably looks to ensure that homes in the Island are made more affordable and that affordable housing is targeted at those who need the support.

The proposed new definitions of Category A Affordable Housing' and Category B Market Housing' are based on the legal definition in article 4(4) of the 2002 Planning and Building (Jersey) Law and are set below, for ease of reference:

It should be noted that, in view of the emphasis now being placed on providing homes that are affordable', conventional first-time buyer homes have been removed from the definition of Category A housing. First-time buyer homes per se are not currently reflective of housing need, given the near parity between their price and that of equivalent market housing.

4. Identified housing requirements

The 2011 Island Plan includes estimations of the total demand for homes over the plan period (2011-2020), as set out in Table 1. The estimates were generated by the Statistics Unit and were primarily based on a combination of:

Population modelling – to generate estimates of the Island's future population, assuming an inward migration scenario of +150 heads of household per annum; and

Average household size modelling.

For the purposes of this work, potential future private household numbers (i.e. excluding households living in communal establishments) were taken literally as an expression of demand for homes, by assuming that each additional household represents an increase in demand for a housing unit. Provision was also made for latent' demand for homes, using base information from the 2007 Housing Needs Survey, in order to establish total demand.

Demand estimates from the 2011 Island Plan are set out in Table 1. This indicates an identified requirement for some 4,000 new homes over the ten year plan period 2011-2020, of which half are required in the first five years.

Table 1: Estimated demand for housing over the period 2011 to 2020

Source: States of Jersey - Island Plan 2011, Table 6.2, p.212

The requirement figures for new homes set out in the 2011 Island Plan have recently been reviewed, updated and rolled forward as part of proposed changes to the Housing Chapter of the Plan. Revised estimates of housing requirements are included in Table 2 and are based on:

population and household modelling using the 2011 Census results, which has been undertaken by the Statistics Unit;

the findings of the 2012 Housing Needs Survey (i.e. Jersey's housing assessment 2013-2015), which was prepared by the Statistics Unit and based on a set of need-based housing questions in the 2012 Jersey Annual Social Survey';

evidence from the Affordable Housing Gateway; and

records of recent housing completions.

Table 2: Estimated demand for housing over the period 2013 to 2020

Source: 2011 Island Plan: interim review - draft for consultation (July 2013), Table 6.2

The figures show an estimated requirement for 3,450 new homes over the remaining Plan period 2013-2020, including 1,000 affordable homes. The more immediate requirements for 500 affordable homes up to the end of 2015 reflect housing aspirations expressed in the 2012 Housing Needs Survey, which have been moderated by considerations of realistic affordability. The estimated demand for affordable homes includes 400 social rented homes (driven by households currently living in the private sector and a shortfall of 2- bedroom homes) and 100 affordable homes for purchase (driven by a shortfall in smaller 1-bedroom owner-occupied homes).

Affordable Housing Gateway

The Affordable Housing Gateway, currently administered by the Housing Department, is a single point of access for all social housing in the Island. Those applicants who have been assessed and qualify through the gateway are included on the Affordable Housing Gateway waiting list and all social housing providers must allocate their homes to those on the list. The Gateway waiting list provides an accurate indication of real-time social rental housing needs and summary statements are issued on a monthly basis.

The Statistics Unit has confirmed that the magnitude of the potential shortfall of affordable social rented homes identified in the 2011 Housing Needs Survey is in close agreement with that implied in the Housing Department's Affordable Housing Gateway waiting list of early 2013.

The latest monthly statistics from the Affordable Housing Gateway (end August 2013) identify a net requirement for 763 social rented homes (mainly 1- and 2-bedroom).[2] This requirement is based on demand in the top priority bands 1, 2, 3 and 6. It is important to note, however, that Band 3 comprises nearly 300 applicants who are already adequately housed, but whose current accommodation is unaffordable given their personal circumstances. Building new homes to meet demand in this band is not considered to be an immediate land use issue. There are other options that need to be explored relating, for example, to income support and rental control.

5. Housing requirements for the next five years

This report looks to address residential land availability over the five year period from the start of 2013 to the end of 2017. The estimated demand for this period is shown in Table 3 and has been calculated by rolling forward the latest Island Plan estimates for additional dwellings on a pro rata basis.

Table 3: Estimated five year demand for housing over the period 2013-2017

Housing requirements for the five year period 2013-2017 are estimated to number 2,280 homes. The average annual building rate required to deliver these estimated requirements for new homes is 456 homes per year, including an average of 140 Category A affordable homes per year.

Non-qualified sector

The estimated Category B demand figures in Table 3 incorporate requirements for non-qualified accommodation. The 2012 Housing Needs Survey shows a small overall shortfall in demand for unqualified accommodation on historic migration trends. This is because the identified demand for some 250 x 1-bedroom units is likely to be off-set by a potential surplus of some 200 x 2-bedroom properties.3 The survey also shows that we can expect to see some surplus arising in this sector through managed immigration at lower levels.4 This will have the added benefit of incentivising landlords to improve standards in the face of increasing competition for tenants.

6. Potential housing supply identified in the Island Plan

The 2011 Island Plan identified a range of supply sources which could potentially generate over 2,400 new homes during the first five year period 2011-2015 and over 4,600 new homes during the full 10 year plan period. These supply sources are set out in Table 4 below.

It can be seen that heavy reliance was placed at that time on the opportunities presented by the St. Helier Waterfront, town regeneration and private windfall developments located elsewhere in the built-up area.

Table 4: Supply of homes provided for in the 2011 Island Plan, 2011-2020.

*1 This is an outdated figure, in that only two sites remained to be completed at the start of 2011, with an estimated yield of 41 homes (see Appendix 12).

*2 This refers to an estimated loss of the total number of units associated with the planned re- development and upgrading of old outworn housing estates owned and managed by the States of Jersey

Housing Department.

Source: States of Jersey – Island Plan, 2011, Table 6.3, p.219

Estimates of supply have recently been reassessed and rolled forward to cover the remaining period of the Island Plan, as part of the proposed changes to the Housing Chapter of the Plan. Revised estimates of housing supply from known sources are included in Table 5.

The figures indicate a potential supply of 3,670 homes up to the end of 2020, with the principal source of anticipated supply (69%) coming from private sector Category B windfall' developments in the Built-up area, including conversions, redevelopment and infill development.

Key sources of supply for Category A homes include:

1. States owned sites – conservatively estimated to yield 190 Category A homes, reflecting in particular the potential offered by the former Jersey College for Girls, Summerland and Ambulance Station sites.
2. Sites proposed for rezoning – four sites with an estimated potential yield of over 290 homes. These are brownfield' glasshouse sites, which were originally identified in Policy H1 of the 2011 Island Plan, as potential future sources of affordable homes to be triggered if needs

are not being met (i.e. De La Mare, Samares, Longueville and Le Quesne nursery sites).

3. States owned housing land – it is estimated that the redevelopment of outworn housing developments will yield 400 Category A homes (including sites atLe Squez, 2-4 Journeaux Street, Le Coin, Belle Vue, Ann Court and La Collette).
4. Other Category A sites – an estimated yield of 170 homes from the remaining undeveloped/ unfinished development sites zoned for Category A housing and identified in Island Plan Policy H2 (including Field 873 St. Lawrence , Field 148 Grouville , Field 578 Trinity and Fields 516, 517 and 518 St. Saviour ).
5. Sites proposed for rural centre housing - an estimated yield of 70 homes from potential development sites identified for supporting the viability and vitality of rural villages under Island Plan Policy H5 (including Fields 622 and 785 in St Ouen and Field 402 St Martin).

Table 5: Supply of homes 2013-2020.

Source: 2011 Island Plan: interim review - draft for consultation (July 2013), Table 6.3

The above supply sources for new homes no longer include the St Helier Waterfront as a separate source. This assumes that further housing yields from Castle Quays (Phase 2), Zephyrus, or the Esplanade Quarter are unlikely to be delivered by the end of 2020.

7. Housing supply for the next five years

For the purposes of this report, the estimated supply of homes set out in Table 5 of the Island Plan has been re-estimated to cover the five year period 2013- 2017. The details are included in Table 6, which estimates the housing supply from known sources to be nearly 1,000 Category A homes and 1,650 Category B homes.

Table 6: Supply of homes 2013-2017.

Notes:

*1.  The proposed interim review of Policy H1 includes the Summerland and Ambulance Station sites

(170 Cat A homes) and the former JCG site (40 Cat A homes and 143 Cat B homes). The first two sites are unlikely to deliver until 2018.

*2.  The proposed interim review of Policy H1 includes anticipated yields from the following proposed

rezoned sites of approx. 290 homes. An estimated 190 homes should be delivered by the end of 2017 (subject to States approval and planning permission):

De La Mare Nurseries, La Rue a Don, Grouville (Mid-range est. 45 homes)

Longueville Nurseries, New York Lane, St. Saviour (Mid-range est. 17 homes)

Le Quesne Nurseries, Rue de Jambart, St. Clement [N.B. It is anticipated that half the potential (mid-range) yield of approx. 60 homes will be delivered by the end of 2017]

Samares Nursery, Grande Route de St. Clement , St. Clement [N.B. It is anticipated that only half of the potential (mid-range) yield of approx. 190 homes will be delivered by the end of 2017]

*3.  The proposed interim review of the Island Plan anticipates yields of some 143 Category A homes

from the following existing Housing Department sites by the end of 2017:

2-4, Journeaux Street, St. Helier (9 homes)

Le Squez (Phase 2c), St. Clement (24 homes)

Le Squez (Phases 3 and 4), St. Clement (32 net homes)

Le Coin, Ann Street / Charles Street, St. Helier (Est. 23 homes)

Belle Vue (Phase 1), Les Quennevais, St. Brelade (35 homes)

Belle Vue (Phase 2), Les Quennevais, St. Brelade (20 homes)

To this can be added the 30 homes currently under construction at Clos Paradis.

The proposed interim review of the Plan also anticipates additional yields of some 218 Category A homes from the following sites, which could be available by the end of 2017:

Belle Vue (Phase 2), Les Quennevais, St. Brelade (27 homes in addition to current permit)

Ann Court, Ann Place, St. Helier (Est. 140 homes)

La Collette Low Rise (Phase 1) (Est. 51 homes)

Another potential site is La Collette Low Rise (Phase 2), but it is presently anticipated that the est. yield of 51 homes will not be available until the end of 2018.

*4.  The proposed interim review of Policy H2 includes anticipated yields from the following sites of

approx. 170 Category A homes by end 2017. The estimated yield, however, excludes the 126 open market Lifelong homes that are planned for the sites in question. These were always intended as Category A homes, but may no longer be so, if the States approve the new definition of Category A homes, as set out in the current proposed revisions to the Island Plan.

Field 873, Rue de Haut, St. Lawrence (12 homes)

Fields 516, 517 and 518, St. Saviour (80 social rented Lifelong homes + 100 open market Lifelong homes)

Field 148, Grouville (20 homes)

Field 578, Trinity (39 homes)

Field 274, St. Clement (16 social rented Lifelong homes + 26 open market Lifelong homes)

*5.  The proposed interim review of Policy H5 includes anticipated yields from the following sites of

approx. 65 Category A homes by the end of 2017:

Field 622, Rue de la Croute, St. Ouen (mid-range est. 25 homes)

Field 785, Rue des Cosnets, St. Ouen (mid-range est. 20 homes)

Field 402, Grande Route de Faldouet, St Martin (mid-range est. 20 homes)

*6.  The proposed interim review of the Island Plan estimates a windfall yield of approx. 150 Category

B homes per year from private developments in the town of St. Helier (i.e. 750 homes by end 2017).

*7.  The proposed interim review of the Island Plan estimates a windfall yield of approx. 150 Category

B homes per year from private developments outside St. Helier (i.e. 750 homes by the end 2017).

8. Recent completions

Annual completions

Table 7 shows the net number of completions of new homes in the qualified sector since 2002 (i.e. the adoption of the 2002 Island Plan) and allows a comparison with earlier trends.

In 2011, despite the ongoing economic downturn, the number of private Category B homes completions rose considerably and to record levels (682 homes). However, last year saw Category B home completions plummet to a new low of only 126, mirroring previous poor performances in 2008 and 2010.

In 2012, there was a significant net increase in the number of purpose-built Category A homes completed (158 homes), in stark contrast to the weak performance in this sector, which had been a feature of the preceding two years.

Looking in overall terms, it is clear that residential construction work over the past eleven years since 2002 has been impressive, resulting in some 5,600 new homes. The average building rate during this period was a healthy 510 new homes per year, which significantly exceeds the average rate of completions achieved in the preceding 16 years (366) during the life of the 1987 Island Plan. It should be recognised, however, that the average annual net completion rate has fallen by 45% to 352 homes per year in the last five years. This compares unfavourably with a rate of 640 homes / year for the period 2002 to 2007 and is significantly below the new target rate of 450 homes / year.

The average rate for purpose-built Category A and Category B homes during the period 2002 to 2012 was approximately 145 and 366 homes per year respectfully. However, these figures take no account of the proportion of the completions currently included in Category B private developments, which have contributed to meeting identified Category A requirements.

Table 7: Housing completions in qualified sector

*1 see Appendix 1 for details; *2 see Appendix 2 for details; *3 includes lodging and staff accommodation; *4 excludes lodging and staff accommodation; *5 includes Jersey Homebuy; *6 includes social rental

lifelong homes

Distribution of completions

Most of the net increase in homes over this 10 year period (63%) was in the urban parishes of St. Helier (46%), St. Saviour (7%) and St. Clement (10%), as indicated in Table 8 below. This is very much in line with the spatial strategies' for new development set out in the 2002 and 2011 Island Plans,

which promote more sustainable development concentrated in urban areas. The concentration of housing completions in the urban parishes (particularly St. Helier ) has been even greater in the last two years (73%).

Table 8: Net completions of new homes in qualified sector, by parish, 2002–end 2012

*1 excluding contribution from private Category B developments.

Completions by type and size

Table 9 gives an indication of the types and sizes of the homes which were completed for Category A and Category B purposes in 2012.

Table 9: Net completions of new homes in qualified sector, by type and size, 2012

*1 includes apartments, studios, bedsits and maisonettes; *2 includes bungalows and cottages

The completions in 2012 were fairly evenly spread between flats and houses. This marks a change from 2011 when the completed homes were nearly all flats, and is similar to the situations in 2009 and 2010. The majority of the completions in 2012 (70%) were 2- and 3-bed homes.

9. Outstanding commitments

Commitments by type

Table 10 provides details of outstanding commitments for new homes at the end of 2012. It illustrates good levels of commitments (i.e. approx. 2,900 homes), which comfortably exceed the target requirements for new homes in the period up to the end of 2017.

Table 10: Outstanding commitments for new homes at start 2013

*1 net of permissions which have not been advanced for 4 years or more; *2 see Appendix 7 for details; *3 see Appendix 8 for details; *4 see Appendix 9 for details; *5 see Appendix 6 (less Lifelong homes) for details; *6 These figures take no account of the potential 130 or so owner occupied homes which would

be released when the owners downsize to open market Lifelong homes.

It is important to note that the realisation of these commitments is not entirely within the control of the Department of the Environment and will undoubtedly be influenced by the wider economic situation and commercial decisions taken by landowners and the development industry. The outstanding commitments include:

• the 484 Category B homes under construction at the end of 2012;
• a proportion of the 1,900 or so Category B homes with existing consents, which had yet to start (supplemented by an unknown number of proposed homes which will be granted consent during the five year period 2013- 2017);
• the 45 outstanding commitments for first time buyer homes (whether or not they were under construction at the start of 2013);
• the commitments for Lifelong homes (approx. 290 homes) and for other social rented homes (approx. 180 homes).

The commitments for other social rented homes during the period exclude the planned developments at the Summerland Factory and the Ambulance Station HQ sites (170 homes), which are considered more likely to deliver in 2018.

As can be seen from Appendices 6 - 9, the commitment figures for Category A homes rely to a significant degree on

• other States owned sites (e.g. Le Squez, Belle Vue, Le Coin, former JCG); and
• the remaining sites zoned by the States in July 2008, primarily for Lifelong Homes (P.75/2008) and included in the 2011 Island Plan (see Appendix 12 for current status). A significant proportion of these lifelong homes are open market and, in future, such homes may fall outside the new definition of Category A homes, as set out in the proposed revisions to the Island Plan (see Section 3).

Distribution of commitments

Table 11 illustrates the availability of housing commitments by parish. As with completions over the last 10 years, most of the commitments are concentrated in the main urban parishes (75%), including St. Helier (55%) and St. Saviour (14%). The low level of net commitments in St. Clement (6%) is due, in part, to losses of homes associated with redevelopment and refurbishment of outworn housing.

Table 11: Housing commitments for net new homes, by parish @ start 2013

Table 11: (continued)

Commitments by type and size

Table 12 gives an indication of the types and sizes of the homes to be provided from known Category A and Category B commitments at the start of 2013. The commitments cover a range of dwelling types and include approximately 1,860 flats (64%) and approximately 1,050 houses (36%).

The evidence also suggests that currently in the pipeline, there are considerable additional supplies of 2-bedroom accommodation and reasonably healthy supplies of 1- and 3-bedroom homes. Taken together, 70% of these are flats and 81% are private Category B homes.

Table 12: Outstanding commitments for new homes, by type and size, at start 2013

*1 includes apartments, studios, bedsits and maisonettes; *2 includes bungalows and cottages

Outstanding commitments for older persons' housing

At the beginning of 2013 there were outstanding commitments for approximately 350 homes aimed at the older members of the community. These might be variously described as Lifelong Homes or retirement homes and they are either for sale in the private sector or provided in the social rented sector (i.e. by Parishes, Trusts and the States). The homes in question are set out in Table 13.

Table 13: Outstanding commitments for older persons' homes @ start 2013

Notes: *This table does not include:

1. redevelopments and refurbishments at existing Housing Department sites, which are producing numbers of units aimed at older, less mobile members of the community; or
2. nursing homes or residential care homes.

10. Completions and outstanding commitments in the unqualified sector

There is currently a lack of good, comprehensive data on the supply of non- qualified accommodation (including Registered Lodging Houses, private lodgings with 5 or less lodgers and staff accommodation) and this is likely to remain the case until the new system for monitoring and regulating migration is properly up and running. A description of the situation, based on the limited information available at the time (including the Lodging House Inspector's 2009 report) was set out in An Interim Review of Residential Land Availability', Planning and Environment Department, 2010.

11. Performance in meeting 2011 Island Plan housing requirements

Table 14 shows that good progress was made in meeting previously identified demand for homes for the first five years of the 2011 Island Plan. With three years of completions still remaining, over two thirds of the identified requirements had already been met. Completions of Category A and Category B homes up to the end of 2012 represented three quarters and two thirds of identified requirements respectively.

Table 14: Performance against demand for housing in first five years of the Island Plan

Notes:

*1.  These 2010 completions were not taken into account when the identified requirement figures were

rolled forward during the Island Plan Review process.

*2.  This includes some Category B homes that will have contributed to meeting f-t-b needs.

*3.  In 2011, 30% of all share transfer flats (1 and 2 bed) were sold to first-time buyers (90 no.). In

2012, 29% were sold to first-time buyers (approx. 100 no) – source: Statistics Unit

12. Comparing known housing supply with overall requirements for homes in the next five years

The figures in Table 15 look to apply known and likely housing supply to estimated requirements for new homes during the five year period between 2013 and 2017.

Table 15: Comparison between estimated requirements for new homes, 2013 – 2017 and predicted supply

Notes:

*1. See Appendix 8 for details. These were always intended as Category A, but, in future, such homes

may not fall within the Category A definition, as set out in the proposed revisions to the Island Plan.

*2. See Appendix 9 for details.

*3. See Appendix 6 for details.

*4. See Appendix 7 for details.

*5. This is a very conservative estimate and takes no account of:

• Cat B consents not commenced at start 2013 but which will complete by end of 2017;
• Cat B consents which will be granted and could complete in the period.

However, it does include some Category B homes that will contribute to meeting f-t-b needs.

*6. The proposed interim review of Policy H1 includes the Summerland, Ambulance Station and

former JCG sites. The first two sites are more likely to deliver Category A affordable homes in 2018. All but 87 Cat B homes on the JCG site have already been accounted for as commitments at the end of 2013.

*7. The proposed interim review of Policy H1 includes anticipated yields from four sites proposed for

rezoning of approx. 290 homes (see Table 6, note 2). An estimated 190 homes should be delivered by the end of 2017 (subject to States approval and planning permission):

*8. The proposed interim review of the Island Plan anticipates yields of some 361 Category A homes

from existing Housing Department sites by the end of 2017 (see Table 6, note 3). 143 of these are already accounted for as commitments.

To this can be added the 30 homes currently under construction at Clos Paradis, which are also already accounted for as commitments.

This leaves a potential supply of 218 homes not accounted for.

*9. The proposed interim review of Policy H2 includes anticipated yields of approx. 170 homes from

Category A housing sites by end 2017 (see Table 6, note 4). This excludes the 126 open market Lifelong homes which are also planned for the sites in question. All these potential yields are already accounted for as commitments:

*10. The proposed interim review of Policy H5 includes anticipated yields from sites in rural centres of

approx. 65 Category A homes by the end of 2017 (see Table 6, note 5).

*11. The proposed interim review of the Island Plan estimates a windfall yield of approximately 150

Category B homes per year from private developments in the town of St. Helier (see Table 6, note 6). 134 Category B homes are already accounted for as being under construction at the start of 2013, including two major sites at Wesley Chapel (57 units) and Uplands Hotel (16 units).

*12. The proposed interim review of the Island Plan estimates a windfall yield of approximately 150

Category B homes per year from private developments outside St. Helier (see Table 6, note 7). 350 homes are already accounted for as being under construction at the start of 2013. This leaves a potential supply of 400 homes not accounted for.

*13. The provision above the target figure may be more, if certain planned private Category B

developments contribute directly to meeting some first-time buyer needs. However, the proposed redefinition of Category A, to include a true test of affordability related to median income levels or below, will likely suppress the level of Cat B homes that fall within this definition.

It can be seen that, in broad terms, the known outstanding commitments and the identified supply sources in the proposed revisions to the Housing Chapter of the Island Plan, more than match the identified total requirements up to the end of 2017. Indeed, they exceed identified total requirements by just under 300 homes (a 12% buffer). This reflects UK National Planning Policy Guidance, which advises planning authorities to provide a land supply buffer of 5-20%, depending on past records of delivery. The buffer is effectively seen as a means to provide a realistic prospect of achieving the required supply of homes and to ensure choice and competition in the market for land.

The current potential excess of supply is largely down to current proposals to increase the land supply available for Category A Affordable homes (including draft proposals to rezone four private glasshouse sites for the purpose).

It is important to emphasise that the conclusions reached from Table 12 rely heavily on the following housing yield assumptions:

• the draft proposals to rezone private sites for affordable homes survive the Island Plan Review Process, including public consultation, the Examination in Public, the Independent Inspector's report, any subsequent amendments by the Minister for Planning and Environment, States Members' amendments and the States Debate;
• existing States owned sites are brought forward for development in a timely manner;
• developments are completed on the remaining sites already zoned for Lifelong Homes and First-time Buyer homes in P.75/2008 (The current status of these sites is given in Appendix 12).
• new homes will continue to arise in good numbers from town of St Helier; and
• there will be a continuing healthy supply of private windfall developments elsewhere in the built-up area.

It should also be acknowledged that the reliance placed by the States on private developers to provide need housing on zoned sites has implications for delivery times. It means that the decision about when to develop sites is a matter for the land owner and the developer and this can be affected by all manner of influences, including availability of development funding, views on the market, availability of resources to undertake development and constraints imposed by planning policies and obligation agreements. This together with the challenging economic circumstances and more restrictive mortgage lending requirements have accounted for the delays experienced in advancing a number of previously allocated sites and approved developments.

Looking immediately beyond 2017, it is encouraging to note that there are large numbers of known future supply sources with the potential to deliver both Category A Affordable homes and market housing (see Appendix 11).

13. Future considerations

Notwithstanding the relatively healthy overall land availability position, there are a number of housing issues which will continue to present significant challenges for the Island and require continued detailed consideration. These issues have previously been addressed in An Interim Review of Residential Land Availability', Planning Department, 2010 and include:

• The level and type of affordable homes required for residents and key workers;
• The future role of social rented housing (in the light of the Whitehead Report' and the States' recent agreement to reform the way social housing is provided in the Island; and
• Planning to meet the future housing needs of a rapidly growing elderly population.

Housing affordability remains the most important issue requiring attention at this time, given the current difficulties for people on low or modest incomes gaining access to suitable housing that they can afford[3]. To assist the procurement of required affordable homes, the Minister for Planning and Environment has reviewed the housing policies in the 2011 Island Plan and has brought forward proposals for rezoning of suitable land. Suitable States owned sites that are surplus to requirements are also to be released for affordable housing purposes.

In addition, a primary function of the recently established Strategic Housing Unit (SHU) will be to coordinate a cross-tenure Island wide Housing Strategy. To assist this process, it is envisaged that the SHU will undertake necessary research into housing affordability and other key issues, such as accommodation for key workers and the ageing population.

On the demand side, going forward, there is a need for more up-to-date, readily available and in-depth information about housing requirements to help ensure appropriate delivery of new homes across all tenures. The new Affordable Housing Gateway', which has recently been transferred to the SHU from the Housing Department, will help provide increasingly robust information about the numbers of affordable homes required (including social rented, intermediate housing and self-build or other housing developed specifically at reduced costs and available through the gateway).

Appendix 1

Schedule of social rented housing completions since 2002