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STATES OF JERSEY
COMMON POPULATION POLICY ANNUAL REPORT 2024
Presented to the States on 19th December 2024 by the Council of Ministers
STATES GREFFE
2024 R.184
December 2024
Common Population Policy Annual Report 2024
Contents
Ministerial Foreword............................................................................................................... 3 Executive Summary................................................................................................................ 4 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 6 Data ...................................................................................................................................... 8
Future data improvements ............................................................................................ 18 Flexibility ............................................................................................................................. 19
Island Plan Long-Term Planning ..................................................................................... 24 Ageing Well Roadmap .......................................................................................................... 25
We are pleased to present the 2024 Common Population Policy report, the first from this Council of Ministers.
This report sets out the main themes and areas of focus identified by the Housing and Work Advisory Group Plus (HAWAG+). This Ministerial group has met regularly throughout 2024 to discuss matters relating to population, migration, skills and our economy. These discussions were informed by the improved data supplied by Statistics Jersey.
Our aim has been to utilise current population data to better understand the island context and the latest population projections for effective forward planning, to sustain and improve outcomes for islanders. Migration (whether that is people from the UK and Ireland, Europe, or further afield) has stabilised after the global political and economic events of recent years. It is
a priority for this Council of Ministers to ensure that the needs of our population now, and in the future, are addressed. This report signifies the importance of balancing demand for economic growth and maintaining affordable living standards (housing, income) against the necessity to prepare for our growing ageing population.
This report sets out the work that has been undertaken in 2024, and is being planned for 2025, to develop flexible migration and immigration controls. These are required to ensure that Jersey can continue to attract the skills and labour important for our economy and society, and so that all workers in Jersey are treated and rewarded fairly.
A key takeaway from our data is that Jersey’s population is getting older and will continue to do so in the medium term. We are delighted that people are living longer and we set out an ‘Ageing Well Roadmap’ to set out how we will provide adequate provisions and opportunities for our projected demographic changes.
Deputy Lyndon Farnham Deputy Carina Alves Chief Minister Assistant Chief Minister
The Council of Ministers has identified the following three areas of focus for this year’s annual report on population issues
• Data. The improved levels of analysis provided in the Statistics Jersey reporting on population issues are giving us a more detailed understanding of our resident and temporary population. Continuing to improve the collection and analysis of data to track population trends is a key priority.
• Flexibility. The Council of Ministers is committed to improving the flexibility of the island’s migration and immigration controls, to ensure that Jersey has the required workforce to maintain and build on our current standards of living.
• Ageing Well. The data clearly show a move towards an ageing island demographic. The fact we are living longer is a positive one. In this report, we lay out an Ageing Well Roadmap.
The report identifies actions and objectives under these themes to guide work across government, to ensure that population issues are fully considered within policy and decision - making. In addition to these formal themes, this Council is also clear in its aim to ensure that all workers in the Island are well supported and valued, paying particular attention to migrant workers and their specific needs
Data
The Council of Ministers believes it is important that considerations around population policy are informed by detailed and accurate data. The significant progress made in this area allows access to much richer and more timely data assisting decision making.
The analysis in respect of 31 December 2023 has highlighted that:
• Jersey’s overall population has remained stable in the last 5 years. A marked difference from the high levels of population growth seen in the preceding 5 years.
• Jersey has required inward migration to maintain its working age population, which has also remained stable over the last 5 years.
• Jersey’s population is getting older, both in the population aged 65 or over, and those aged 80 and older.
• There has been an increase in the number of people in Jersey from outside the United Kingdom and Europe (‘rest of the world nationality’), while the number of people with a European nationality has reduced.
Flexibility
Ensuring that controls are flexible and can adapt quickly to support changing market conditions is a key priority for this government. Work to improve flexibility is well advanced: the Work Permit Policy has recently been updated; and changes to the operation of the Control of Housing and Work Law (CHWL), will be proposed in the new year.
Work permits – improved flexibility
• Expand the roles eligible for the long-term work permit, to provide more options for individuals and businesses.
• Grant permissions to carry out supplementary part-time work, to increase the productivity of those already on the island.
• Revise the salary thresholds, to ensure fair pay for those moving to the island for work.
• Permit workers able to seek new employment after 6 months, to create flexibility for employees.
CHWL legal framework – improved flexibility
• Update the CHWL Regulations, to allow legal controls to be updated quickly in light of changing circumstances.
• Consider the expansion of roles eligible for Licensed permissions, to improve the supply of workers into key sectors.
• Consider the number of years required to access the qualified rental market, to ease barriers to workers finding accommodation.
Flexible workforce – Skills and productivity
As part of the Common Strategic Policy 2024-2026, the Council of Ministers pledged to bring the minimum wage to two-thirds of the median wage. Alongside this, the Government will provide employers with a package of financial support measures worth £20 million over the next 2 years to improve their skills, productivity and competitiveness. The ongoing Future Economy Programme also emphasises the importance of creating a skilled workforce to enable long-term sustainable economic growth.
Ageing well roadmap
People in the western world can now expect to live almost twice as long as they would have 100 years ago. Many governments are taking action to prepare for the changes that this will bring.
Ministers consider that the Better Later Life strategy set out by the New Zealand government provides a useful basis for the Ageing Well roadmap for Jersey.
Issues and actions will be embedded across all government activity and will be considered across 5 areas:
- Financial Security and Economic Participation
- Healthy Ageing and Access to Services
- Diverse Housing Choices and Options
- Participation and Social Inclusion
- Accessible Environments.
The Council of Ministers has a legal responsibility to maintain a common population policy and to review this policy on an annual basis.
This Council has brought together a wide range of Ministers into a formal group (Housing and Work Advisory Group Plus) to oversee areas of government policy and administration connected with population issues. The Chief Minister chairs HAWAG+ and the full group comprises:
• Chief Minister
• Minister for Justice and Home Affairs - responsible for immigration rules
• Minister for Sustainable Economic Development
• Minister for Education and Lifelong Learning
• Minister for Housing
• Minister for Social Security
• Minister for External Relations
Deputy Alves , as Assistant Chief Minister with delegated responsibility for the Control of Housing and Work Law, and Deputy Scott , as Assistant Minister for Sustainable Economic Development, also sit on this group. The group meet on a regular basis and have overseen the development of this annual report.
The aim of the annual report is to summarise the themes that are driving ministerial policy, and report on how these polices are being turned into tangible actions.
The annual report draws heavily on the reports published by Statistics Jersey in recent months and so can present the most up-to-date position on these matters.
Within this report, ‘migration’ means the movement of any person to Jersey, regardless of their nationality. This includes UK and Irish nationals, as well as Europeans and nationals of other countries. The actions set out in this report are framed by the long-term challenges of ageing demographics and low productivity as identified in the Strategy for Sustainable Economic Development[1]. These challenges included the possibility of population controls having a negative impact on the Island’s economy, which might, in turn, impact the productivity and competitiveness of Jersey-based firms.
Without significant economic growth, either from new sectors or from increased productivity of existing sectors, then the Future Economy Programme projections indicate that by 2040 the likely consequences would be:
- Lower living standards for islanders from a reduced level of income, and/or
- Lower levels of Government revenue which might result in lower quality of Government services for residents or require higher taxes to pay for them.
Inward migration can help to grow a country’s economy. Whilst sole reliance on immigration for economic growth is not sustainable for a small island economy, a reasonable and balanced form of immigration is necessary and beneficial to the Island’s future. This allows new businesses to be established on the Island; provides a greater range of skills in the labour market; and helps to replace workers retiring from the labour market.
The global context is shaped by several interrelated factors, including worldwide elections, ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, and the rising number of global migrants driven by climate change. These factors have created a challenging environment which, alongside the opportunities of technological advancement and environmental sustainability, underscore the necessity of prioritising long-term sustainable economic growth through population policy.
The Council of Ministers believes it important that considerations around population policy are informed by detailed and accurate data. We are therefore very pleased to have improved statistics to report. The 2023 Population and Migration Statistics,[2] published by Statistics Jersey in September, contain the most comprehensive data on population to have ever been published by the Government of Jersey. It is the third such report to use “linked administrative data”, meaning that it uses evidence of people accessing government services to determine whether someone is on the island, and whether they are in work.
The significant recent progress made in this area allows us to access much richer and timelier data. It also allows us to review that data in different ways and to produce additional analyses for particular users or uses. We are now accessing accurate data on an annual basis, rather than relying on projections from an historic census, a significant step forward.
Experimental data has also been developed this year by Statistics Jersey, which is yielding population insights in new areas. While this analysis needs to be interpreted with care, it allows us to better understand what proportion of the population has a specific residential and employment status, and the various nationalities of the resident population.
Statistics Jersey have also timed their annual population estimate to ensure that this up-to-date information can be incorporated into the annual Common Population Policy report.
In addition to the population estimates for 2022 and 2023, Statistics Jersey have also published population projections, based upon the 2022 population estimates.
Useful data relevant to population policy is also provided within a number of other reports published by Government of Jersey, including:
Labour Market Report, June 2024 – Statistics Jersey
Births and Breastfeeding Profile 2023 – Public Health Jersey Key findings from these reports are presented below.
Changes in Jersey’s resident population are made up of two components:
• natural change – the number of births minus the number of deaths
• net migration – the number of people arriving minus the number of people leaving
• natural change was – 100 (more deaths than births)
• net migration was +200 (more immigration than emigration)
• total population change was +110
In 2023:
• natural change was -110 (more deaths than births)
• net migration was +470 (more immigration than emigration)
• total population change was +350.
Figure 1: Rolling 12-month natural change, net migration, and total change between 2012 and
2023 (Source: Statistics Jersey)
The estimated total population of Jersey at the end of 2023 was 103,650. The population has remained relatively stable over the last five years, a marked change from the previous five-year period, which saw rapid population growth (from 99,300 in 2013 to 103,290 in 2018).
Figure 2: Total population size in December between 2012 & 2023 (Source: Statistics Jersey) From 2019 onwards, the total population figure has remained relatively static with a small dip in
2021 and then small increases in the last two years.
These years have represented a period of great uncertainty globally. The United Kingdom has left the European Union, Covid-19 has affected millions of people and Europe has seen its largest conflict since the second world war. This contrasts sharply with the less turbulent situation prior to 2019, when Jersey’s population had been steadily increasing (through the 2010s) due to net inward migration, primarily from European Union countries under freedom of movement rights.
Looking at the population aged 65 and above in more detail
There has been a shift in the make-up of the population over the last ten years towards older ages. For example, in 2023, the number of people in the island aged between 55-64 was 15,350, and the number of people aged between 5-14 was 10,340. Put simply, this means that (without inward migration) as many as 15,000 people might leave the workforce in the next ten years while, in the same period, a maximum of 10,000 young people will enter it.
As migration is minimal for the 65+ groups, the change in the size of these age groups is mainly attributable to ageing and deaths. The chart below shows the change in the size of the older age groups between 2018-2023: all these age groups are increasing in size, with the most growth seen in the number of people aged 85 and older.
• 65 to 74 + 6.4%
• 75 to 84 + 15.7%
• 85+ + 22.4%
As the population ages, illnesses affecting predominantly older people are projected to have the largest proportional increase[4]. Average health costs per person rise sharply in the oldest age groups. Supporting these costs will be a significant challenge for the government in future decades.
Population aged 65 and older
12000
10490
9850
10000
8000 7650
6610
6000
4000
2900 2370
2000
0
Population 65 to 74 Population 75 to 84 Population over 84
2018 2023
Figure 3: Comparison of population aged 65 and older between 2018 and 2023 (Source:
Statistics Jersey)
The 2023 report from the Superintendent Registrar notes that there were 888 deaths which occurred in Jersey between 1st January 2023 and 31st December 2023 – 25 less than in 2022.
The Public Health Mortality report notes that:
• the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) for Jersey was 820 per 100,000 population, which is statistically similar to each annual ASMR for Jersey within the last decade, and significantly lower than the ASMR for England (965 per 100,000) and Wales (1,087 per 100,000) in 2023.
• the ASMR for males (1,040 per 100,000) was significantly higher than that for females (656 per 100,000):
Figure 4: Annual number of deaths, Jersey (2000 to 2023) (Source: Public Health Jersey)
• The mean age at death for women has increased by 9 years between 1960 and 2023 (from 72 to 81 years), while the mean age at death for men has seen a greater increase of 15 years over the same period (62 to 77 years):
Figure 5: Average age of death, Jersey (1960 to 2023) (Source: Public Health Jersey)
Looking at the population with CHW Entitled status in more detail
This section utilises new ‘experimental’ data from Statistics Jersey on residential and employment status and nationality[5]. While this analysis needs to be interpreted with care, it allows us to better understand what proportion of the population has a specific residential and employment status, and the various nationalities of the resident population.
People with an Entitled status have, generally, spent a period of more than 10 years in Jersey. The additional statistics available this year provide information on movements by CHW status for the first time. For example, anecdotal evidence of large numbers of people leaving Jersey can now be judged against objective evidence. Between 2017 and 2019 there were net outflows of between 620 and 740 CHW entitled people each year. This net outflow decreased in 2020 (Covid) and then increased to nearly 1,000 a year in 2022 and 2022. The figures for 2023 show a welcome reduction to a net figure of 760 people, which is similar to the 2019 figure. However, Ministers are not complacent and will continue to keep this issue under careful review.
Whilst the net migration within the entitled status group has been negative in each of the last 5 years, the total number of entitled people is now 70,010, representing an increase of 2% in the last five years.
By age:
• Comparing 2023 to 2018, net outward migration of people with Entitled status is greater, and this is mainly relating to a change in the 20 – 29 age group (see graph on next page):
Net migration of Entitled by age
20-29 years 30-49 years 50-64 years
0
-50
-100
-150
-140 -150 -200
-200
-250 -220 -220
-300
-350
-350
-400
2018 2023
Figure 6: Comparison of net migration of the population by age group between 2018 and
2023 (Source: Statistics Jersey)
• Looking at the in and outward flows for the 20-29 age group, the increase in net outward migration is a result of both a reduction in inward AND an increase in outward flows for this age group:
Migration of 20 - 29 year olds with Entitled status
600
520 500 430
400
300
210
200 170
100
0
Inward Outward
2018 2023
Figure 7: Comparison of migration of 20 – 29-year-olds, with Entitled Status between 2018
and 2023 (Source: Statistics Jersey)
Looking at the total working age population in more detail
Figure 8: Annual (12-month rolling total) net effects and total change between 2012 and 2023 for
people of working age (Source: Statistics Jersey)
In the last five years, the size of the working age population has been kept relatively stable by the inward migration of working-age people. At the same time, the size of the pensioner population is increasing steadily, and it is likely that further population growth (meaning, an increase in the number of working-age people) will be necessary to maintain a successful economy.
Historically, our workforce has benefited from the island’s geographical proximity to France, and by developing cultural ties with Poland and Portugal; however, the latest Statistics Jersey report explains that we are now attracting greater numbers of workers from non-European countries.
The number of people with a ‘rest of world’ nationality (i.e. excluding Jersey, British, and European) increased between 2018 and 2023, from 1,720 to 4,300 people. In the same period, the number of people of European nationality decreased from 16,740 to 15,610:
|
|
|
People |
|
|
|
|
Dec 2018 |
|
Dec 2023 |
Change |
|
Jersey or British |
64,120 |
63,890 |
-230 |
|
|
European |
16,740 |
15,610 |
-1,130 |
|
|
Rest of world |
1,720 |
4,300 |
2,580 |
|
|
Total |
82,570 |
83,790 |
1,220 |
|
Table 1: Population size, aged 20 years or older, by nationality in 2023 compared to 2018
(Source: Statistics Jersey)
Figure 9: Count of inward migration (not net migration) in previous 12 months, by self-declared[6]European nationality, aged 20 years and above (Source: Statistics Jersey)
Figure 10: Count of inward migration (not net migration) in previous 12 months, by self-declared Rest of World nationality, aged 20 years and above (Source: Statistics Jersey)
The business community has seen a significant decline in interest from European workers – this is likely to be driven by Brexit restrictions and a changing labour market in the EU. Businesses have adapted to these changes by recruiting workers from non-European countries. This change in migration patterns requires the Government to adapt its population controls, to ensure that:
• local businesses can continue to make effective use of migrant labour
• Jersey remains an attractive destination for workers to come to.
With workers coming from farther afield, employers need to plan further ahead to apply for work permits and help employees arrange visas and flights. Once they are in Jersey, those employees also require time to plan trips home and are restricted in how many such trips they can make, which can result in feelings of isolation. This Government has been working to alleviate a number of these issues, and these are covered in more detail in the next section.
Looking at children and birth rates in more detail
795 children were born in Jersey in 2023. This was 40 less than in 2022 (a 5% decrease) and the lowest number of births recorded since 1955[7]. In addition, more than 300 children aged under 15 arrived in Jersey as dependents of their inwardly migrating parents. Since December 2018, the population aged under 16 has decreased by 5%:
|
|
|
People |
|
|
|
|
Dec 2018 |
|
Dec 2023 |
Change |
|
Under 16 |
16,570 |
15,730 |
-840 |
|
|
16 to 64 |
68,730 |
67,770 |
-950 |
|
|
Over 64 |
18,000 |
20,150 |
2,150 |
|
|
Total |
103,290 |
103,650 |
360 |
|
Table 2: Population size by age at the end of 2018 and 2023 (Source: Statistics Jersey)
The total fertility rate (TFR) refers to the total number of children born to a woman in her lifetime if she were subject to the current rates of age-specific fertility in the population.
• the TFR in Jersey during the period 2021-2023 was 1.29 births per woman, equivalent to 1,290 births per 1,000 women. This is lower than the latest available 3-yearly rate for England and Wales, where the TFR was 1.54 births per woman (2020-2022).
• the latest TFR for Jersey is the lowest recorded since 2001-2003.
• between 2001-2003 and 2011-2013 the total fertility rate (TFR) in Jersey had increased from 1.35 to 1.58, but since 2012-2014 has been decreasing:
Figure 11: Three-yearly total fertility rate (TFR) (Jersey, 2001-2003 to 2021-2023) (Source: Public
Health Jersey)[8]
The OECD [9]estimates a total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is required to ensure a broadly stable population, assuming no net migration and unchanged mortality, and that OECD countries have experienced a sharp decline in fertility rates with TFR more than halving on average from 3.3 in 1960 to 1.5 in 2022[10].
The Lancet[11] reports that fertility is declining globally with more than half of all countries in 2021 below replacement levels, and that “Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and
declining workforces in higher-income countries”.
A number of countries have sought to utilise pro-natal policies to seek to reverse declining fertility rates. Whilst there is little data presently to suggest that pro-natal policies result in significant increases in the TFR, such policies can have a positive effect in respect of improving gender equality and female participation within the workforce.
Building on the work of previous governments, this Council of Ministers is taking practical steps to support families with children through improved nursery provision, support for primary school lunches, and funding of in vitro fertilisation.
Changes to work permit rules recently approved by MJHA include an expansion of the number of long-term work permit routes. Given an appropriate salary, these routes allow the worker to bring children with them.
The total number of jobs in Jersey in June 2024 was 65,290. This was made up of 55,590 jobs in the private sector and 9,710 jobs in the public sector. The number of jobs, in both private and public sectors, were at their highest recorded to date. Job numbers presented are a count of
jobs filled and are not a count of unique individual employees.
Figure 12: Total jobs in Jersey in June and December for 2000 to 2024 (Source: Statistics Jersey)
Table 3: Total job count for the private and public sectors, June 2019 to June 2024 (Source:
Statistics Jersey)
Whilst acknowledging the significant progress that has already been made in this area, the Council of Ministers is committed to making the reports produced in future even more comprehensive. To achieve this, the following areas of focus have been identified for future iterations:
• Better data sharing/more departmental collaboration – Ministers have committed to facilitate more data sharing from departments to Statistics Jersey to enable production of statistics on households, alongside more detailed breakdowns
• Resident Population Data - developing analysis to differentiate between seasonal workers and permanent residents
• Working age Population Data – developing analysis to differentiate within the working age population – e.g. employed, full time student, retired etc
For Jersey to continue to flourish in a fast-changing world, it is vital that the government is able to act quickly to take advantage of new opportunities and to react to new situations. It is also crucial for the Island and local businesses to remain globally competitive as this will assist in attracting investment and global talent to fill skills gaps within our economy. Attracting talent from around the world can provide a diverse and skilled workforce improving the island’s productivity and driving innovation.
The Fiscal Policy Panel (FPP) annual report 2024[12] comments that Jersey's economy typically operates at full employment with a reliance on migrant workers to fill additional and seasonal roles. These, often seasonal, workers are increasingly being recruited from further afield which requires forward planning and longer timelines. This may be making it harder for businesses to match employment with actual business activity. The FPP Report highlights that this change suggests that the labour market is not functioning as well as it could be due to this reduction in flexibility. Ministers appreciate the challenges that businesses face, and a key theme of this government is ensuring that our population controls remain relevant and can be updated
quickly. Embedding a framework of flexible population controls to respond to market conditions will help local businesses to quickly adapt to changing circumstances and improve their efficiency.
Ministers are reviewing both the CHWL Regulations and the island’s Work Permit Policy to provide for further flexibility. Alongside these legal frameworks, actions under the 5 themes of the Future Economy Programme and the project to transition towards a living wage, all seek to create an economy that is:
• Resilient - improving the government’s ability to respond quickly to changing market conditions
• Innovative – maintaining and growing a prosperous economy by increasing productivity
• Skilled - making better use of the resources we already have on-island by improving skills
• Fair – supporting individuals who are already here; treating those who are new to the island fairly
• International - increasing Jersey’s attractiveness to key workers from other countries
Flexibility in migration controls (CHWL)
The Control of Housing and Work Law (CHWL) outlines who may legally work, set up a business, and access accommodation in Jersey. These restrictions apply to everyone on the island, regardless of their nationality (including people already resident in Jersey). By restricting access
to employment opportunities and housing, the CHWL acts as a control on the overall
population of Jersey.
Events over the last five years have shown the CHWL, in its current form, to lack the flexibility to adapt to external influences on the island and its workforce. The Council of Ministers recognises the impact of recent events (particularly the restrictions enforced during the pandemic, and the UK’s withdrawal from the EU) on local businesses and is acting to create additional flexibility by amending the CHWL’s Regulations. The intention is to introduce additional responsiveness while maintaining the robustness of the island’s population controls.
The Control of Housing and Work Law controls the overall population density, and the availability of work and housing in Jersey for people with strong connections or associations with Jersey, and in the best interests of the community.
The CHWL establishes two categories of accommodation: ‘Qualified’ or ‘Registered’ (often referred to, colloquially, as ‘unqualified’). The CHWL also establishes four statuses, which determine a person’s ability to access work or housing:
|
CHW Status |
Who? |
Housing |
Work |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Entitled |
Someone who has lived in Jersey for at least 10 years |
Can buy, sell or lease any property |
Can work anywhere |
|
Licensed |
Someone who is an 'essential employee' |
Can buy, sell or lease any property, apart from first time buyer restricted or social rented housing. Only available while the worker retains “licensed” status |
Employer needs a CHW permission to employ a 'licensed' person |
|
Entitled for Work |
Someone who has lived in Jersey for at least 5 years; or Someone who is the spouse /civil partner of someone who is 'entitled', 'licensed', or 'entitled for work' |
Can buy property jointly with an 'entitled' spouse / civil partner. Can lease 'registered' property in their own name. |
Can work anywhere |
|
Registered |
Someone who does not qualify under the other categories (i.e. someone who has lived here for less than 5 years) |
Can only lease 'registered' property in their own name |
Employer needs CHW permission to employ a 'registered' person |
Since its introduction in 2013, one of the impacts of the CHWL has been to progressively reduce the number of ‘Registered’ or ‘unqualified’ housing units. Census information shows a fall of 1,399 Registered accommodation units, and an increase of 4,404 Qualified units in the same period (2011–2021). This equates to a 25% reduction in the number of Registered units.
Change in Units of accommodation in Registered & Qualified categories:
|
2021 Census information |
||
|
Housing category |
Registered |
Qualified |
|
|
4,550 0-5 years Registered |
2,106 0-10 years Licensed |
|
|
5,454 5-10 years EFW only |
74,682 10+ years Entitled |
|
Total |
10,004 Adults |
76,788 Adults |
|
Accom Units |
4,160 Units |
40,440 Units |
|
2011 Census Information |
||
|
Housing category |
Unqualified |
Qualified |
|
Total |
10,577 Adults |
71,067 Adults |
|
Accom units |
5,559 Units |
36,036 Units |
|
10 year change (2011 – 2021) |
||
|
|
Unqualified |
Qualified |
|
Net change |
-573 Adults |
+ 5,721 Adults |
|
|
- 1,399 Units |
+ 4,404 Units |
Table 4: Comparison of Registered and Qualified Units of accommodation between 2011 and
2021 census (Source: Statistics Jersey)
This Council of Ministers acknowledges that this has resulted in a shortage of accommodation for workers who cannot access Qualified accommodation, which is likely to have impacted the ease with which businesses can attract workers to Jersey.
Work has begun on increasing the flexibility of the CHWL. The States Assembly has already approved amendments to the primary legislation which maintain the CHWL’s current structure, while improving its flexibility through increased use of Regulations and Orders.
This year, Assistant Chief Minister Deputy Alves , has developed new Control of Housing and Work Regulations to support the amended law. These revised Regulations are due to be lodged and debated in the Assembly in early 2025. Once the new law and associated Regulations take effect, the Chief Minister and Assistant Chief Minister will be able to swiftly amend the legislative framework in response to future economic and social developments.
The priority is to mitigate the difficulties many employers and employees experience when trying to source accommodation within the Registered sector. Ministers intend to take action in this area in 2025. Two approaches are under consideration: an expansion of the range of jobs that qualify for licensed status; and a review of the number of years residency needed to occupy qualified accommodation. In both cases, any expansion would be limited to private rental properties. Ministers view the restrictions on buying property in Jersey as vital to supporting the long-term needs of Jersey – to maintain housing stock to house our key workers and local families.
Flexibility in immigration controls
Jersey is a member of the Common Travel Area (CTA), a long-standing arrangement that predates the UK’s previous membership of the European Union. The arrangement allows islanders to travel anywhere within the CTA without an immigration control. This also gives residents of the other members of the CTA – the United Kingdom, the Republic of Ireland and the other Crown Dependencies – the right of free movement to Jersey. These individuals are still subject to the CHWL Controls and therefore do not have unrestricted rights to work and live here.
All individuals who are not British or Irish nationals will require an immigration permission to visit, work, study or settle in the Common Travel Area. Any individuals not within the CTA who wish to work in Jersey, even on a temporary basis, will require a work permit (issued by the Government of Jersey) and a Visa (issued by the UK government), or they must hold a visa that enables them to take on employment without a work permit. As Jersey is an entry point into the CTA (eg from France) it is vital that our immigration controls are maintained robustly.
Provided the security of the border (i.e., into the Common Travel Area) is maintained, the Minister for Justice and Home Affairs may amend work permit controls to suit the island’s specific needs. Short-term work permit routes have been set up in Jersey for the agricultural, hospitality, construction and fishing sectors – routes which are not available in the UK.
The Minister for Justice and Home Affairs will continue to adopt a flexible approach to requests from local businesses to establish new short-term routes as needed. Further flexibility has already been introduced in the latest edition of the work permit policy, which now includes:
Changes of employment
The Minister for Justice and Home Affairs has reviewed the restriction preventing individuals on a Work Permit from changing employer for at least a year. This restriction can create an imbalance of power between employer and employee; the Minister for Justice and Home Affairs has accordingly decided to reduce this period to six months.
Supplementary part-time employment
This policy allows an individual on a long-term work permit to take on up to 20 hours of supplementary part-time work in any role that would qualify for a work permit. This change allows businesses to use resources which are already on-island to improve local productivity.
Eligibility criteria
The Minister for Justice and Home Affairs has updated which occupations are eligible for the long-term Work Permit, to more closely align it with the UK Skilled Work Visa. This change expands the routes available, allowing more flexibility for both individuals and businesses.
Increased salary thresholds
After consideration of the existing salary thresholds, the Minister for Justice and Home Affairs has updated the thresholds for long-term work permits to provide a more realistic minimum salary threshold per occupation. Employers are expected to pay the specified threshold or the going rate, whichever is higher. This is to ensure that individuals who travel to the island to work are not paid less than people already in Jersey. The updated guidance will also include clarification on what the salary threshold means in terms of hourly rate and working week.
The Minister for Justice and Home Affairs continues to monitor the Work Permit Policy and is ready to make modifications where appropriate.
The recent changes to the Work Permit Policy highlighted above will mitigate the risk of exploitation of workers allowing for further transparency and understanding prior to individuals arriving on island.
The Future Economy Programme
The Future Economy Programme continues to support progress across Government and beyond towards the collective vision - to become a consistently high-performing, environmentally sustainable and technologically advanced small island economy by 2040. This support is guided by the 5 themes for the economy:
Resilient: An economy resilient to economic shocks and global trends, and agile to change. Innovative: An economy with a culture of entrepreneurialism and innovation.
Skilled: An economy which is enhanced by expertise, and which supports Jersey’s future needs.
Fair: Economic growth that benefits all Islanders equitably.
International: Protect our global reputation and diversifies our export opportunities.
Inward Investment and Entrepreneurs
As part of reviewing the government’s flexibility, Ministers have committed to undertaking further work to review the current inward investment process for businesses and particularly entrepreneurs. This review will be undertaken in 2025; any recommendations made will take account of the start-up support that is available to entrepreneurs who are already in Jersey.
Skills and Productivity
As part of the Common Strategic Policy 2024-2026, the Council of Ministers pledged to bring the minimum wage to two-thirds of the median wage. Alongside this, the Government has
proposed a package of financial support measures worth £20 million to help employers improve skills, productivity and competitiveness over the next 2 years. This significant government funding will help local businesses to improve their productivity and competitiveness towards
our long-term priority of sustainable economic growth.
As a result of a changing pattern of migration and a move towards recruitment from further afield the island now faces challenges of competing within a global market. The transition towards the living wage will help attract workers to Jersey, in turn assisting to alleviate labour shortages and making the island more competitive with global contenders.
Island Plan Long-Term Planning
The issue of population is fundamental to the Island Plan – it provides the starting point for understanding how many homes need to be planned for and is linked to the likely scale of economic activity and the demand for different types of commercial floorspace. A reasoned and justifiable planning assumption ensures that appropriate provision of land and development opportunities are made in the Island Plan in order that a sustainable balance is struck overall.
The Bridging Island Plan was prepared in the period just before the CV-19 pandemic and Brexit, and was based, having regard to the best information available at the time, on a planning assumption of a growth in the island’s population of about 800 people/year. As we have seen, however, from 2019 onwards, the total population figure has remained relatively static.
This means that the provisions made in the bridging Island Plan, particularly for the supply of homes, will have a greater longevity and that the current plan period can be extended. It is still important to keep delivering homes, particularly on the grounds of affordability.
Looking forward, it is important to have regard to a whole range of issues presented by population change, and other factors such as climate change, in planning for the future and the sustainable wellbeing of islanders. The next island plan will likely have to deal with, amongst others, issues associated with the land use implications of ensuring an adequate supply of drinking water; an adequate supply of minerals and aggregates to support development and construction; and that appropriate provision can be made for the management of liquid and solid waste. Work is underway to look at how these critical issues might be addressed.
The policy intent of Ministers is that the focus on flexibility through the measures highlighted in this section will ensure the Island is well placed to meet future challenges. The implementation of updated and new policies will promote the island’s adaptability and responsiveness to changing circumstances and look to improve the local economy making Jersey a vibrant place to live.
Ministers are taking actions to ensure that the population controls which are applied to businesses, and working-aged people, are flexible and supportive of a sustainable and prosperous economy. At the same time, we know that the population is ageing.
A leading expert in the economics of longevity, Professor Andrew J Scott has described the “ageing society narrative” as follows:
“The ageing society narrative encourages seeing longer lives as a problem and not an opportunity. It leads to the damaging idea that there are too many old people and we are living too long… [That is] a perverse way of seeing a triumph of human development”. [13]
This Council of Ministers agrees with Professor Scott that this is the wrong approach and wish to articulate a different vision. The fact that we are living longer is extremely positive and Ministers are working together to make sure that older people in the Island have access to the services, opportunities and support that they need. This follows up on the commitments in our Common Strategic Policy, approved earlier this year, including:
“We will provide adequate provisions and opportunities for lifelong learning retraining and attractive flexible roles to ensure that age and disability are not barriers to islanders continuing to participate in an evolving job market”
“[We will] make preparations for our projected demographic changes, including our ageing population…to ensure the sustainability of our health provisions and to protect economic prosperity into the future”.
This section provides the data that identifies the ageing demographic shift and outlines the Jersey Ageing Well Roadmap that government has adopted to support islanders, now and in the future, to adapt to these societal changes.
Figure 13: Population pyramids at the end of 2013, 2018 and 2023 (Source: Statistics Jersey)
Regardless of how much net migration we experience in the future, the older-aged population is expected to increase rapidly over the next 20-30 years. This is particularly the case for the older age groups (over 75) which are expected to increase by around 50% over the next 20-30 years[14].
These statistics show that Jersey, in line with many other developed countries, has an ageing population. Improvements in healthcare and public services have dramatically improved life expectancy over the last century, and we can expect to enjoy better health, and live longer, than people from only 2 generations ago.
Governments around the world are making plans to support this increase in the population of older people. Jersey can learn from the work that has already been done to support our own preparations. Planning ahead now will ensure that we are well prepared for the challenges and opportunities ahead.
The Jersey Ageing Well roadmap adopted by Ministers is based on the New Zealand “Better Later Life” strategy. Ministers will coordinate activity across their individual responsibilities,
The table and section below set out some examples of actions that are already planned. Many other areas will need to be addressed, and Ministers will continue to take action across all areas of government activity.
|
|
Short-term |
Medium-term |
Long-term |
|
Financial Security and Economic Participation |
Supporting people who wish to stay in the workforce |
Helping people to upskill or retrain |
Improving pension provision |
|
Healthy Ageing and Access to Services |
Reducing the risk of age-related illness |
Using technology to support people to stay independent |
Ensuring our health system is fit for purpose |
|
Diverse Housing Choices and Options |
Helping Islanders who receive care at home |
Making ‘right sizing easier’ |
Giving Islanders more choice |
|
Participation and Social Inclusion |
Listening to the views of older Islanders |
Linking Islanders to social activities |
Supporting community networks |
|
Accessible Environments |
Providing services across the Island |
Improving access to public spaces |
Planning for accessibility |
The HAWAG + group of Ministers will discuss these issues on a regular basis during 2025 and support and encourage all Ministers to understand the nature and size of changes ahead and to work together to ensure that Jersey is well prepared.
Financial Security and Economic Participation
|
Short-term |
Medium-term |
Long-term |
|
Supporting people who wish to stay in the workforce |
Helping people to upskill or retrain |
Improving pension provision |
Short-term - Supporting people who wish to stay in the workforce
The WorkWell pilot service that started in 2023 has now been permanently established by the Minister for Social Security in 2024. WorkWell helps people who are off work due to a health condition manage their return to work on a phased basis while still receiving sickness benefits. This support can help people remain economically active rather than withdraw completely from the workplace. As the average age of workers increases, it is vital that we support people living with a chronic health condition to remain in employment. WorkWell is an entirely voluntary service; it is one part of a plan to redesign Jersey’s incapacity benefits so that they support workers with health conditions to remain in work.
Medium-term - Helping people to upskill or retrain
The Minister for Education and Lifelong Learning is committed to providing older adults with more opportunities for higher education and for upskilling or retraining. The 2025-2028 Budget provides enhanced grants for distance learning.
The significant increase in financial support for this type of study will benefit people who need to balance study with other commitments (such as work, or caregiving responsibilities). The changes will make it easier to re-enter education later in life, without having to leave Jersey.
Long-term - Improving pension provision
Jersey’s latest Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (published in 2023) evidenced that two-thirds of us (66%) are worried about what our standard of living will be in retirement. With longer life expectancy, retirement today can last for many years and ensuring adequate incomes in retirement is an important long-term aim. 48% of JOLS survey respondents said they did not feel they currently had an adequate occupational pension – an increase of 9 percentage points since 2015.
The great majority of local pensioners receive a Jersey Social Security pension, and the Government has confidence in the sufficiency of the Social Security Fund, both now and for generations to come. However, this pension is not designed to provide a full income for old age.
Building on previous work, the Minister for Social Security will be undertaking research and preparatory work during 2025 and 2026 to develop a framework for a secondary pension scheme which will give all workers the opportunity to access a workplace pension.
Healthy Ageing and Access to Services
|
Short-term |
Medium-term |
Long-term |
|
Reducing the risk of age- related illness |
Using technology to support people to stay independent |
Ensuring our health system is fit for purpose |
Short-term - Reducing the risk of age-related illness
In June the Minister for Health and Social Services published “Strong Foundations: A Dementia Strategy for Jersey”. This strategy was jointly developed with Dementia Jersey. As well as setting out plans for supporting people with a dementia diagnosis, the strategy also sets out a key priority to raise awareness of brain health and dementia.
Dementia Jersey and Public Health will run a Boost Your Brain campaign in early 2025. The aim of the campaign is to raise awareness of the modifiable lifestyle factors which are believed to reduce the risk of developing dementia.
The campaign will have three areas of focus during 2025 including looking after your heart (for example by not smoking, exercising regularly and avoiding excessive alcohol), staying sharp (building up your cognitive reserve, protecting your brain from injury and challenging your brain) and keeping connected (staying social and wearing your hearing aids).
Medium-term - Using technology to support people to stay independent
Earlier this year, the Government funded Impact Jersey programme launched a major grant programme to support developments in CareTech - Impact Jersey’s CareTech Challenge.
Nearly 70 applications were received from both local and international organisations. Worth up to £2 million, the programme is “aimed at developing and deploying tech-driven solutions to address the health, independence and safety of Jersey’s ageing population”.
The successful bids are due to be announced shortly with products and services being developed over the next few years.
Long-term - Ensuring our health system is fit for purpose
Previous governments have struggled over many years to provide a clear vision for Jersey’s future health system. The Minister for Health and Social Services has now set out clear plans for modern healthcare facilities and health services that are coordinated across community and hospital providers working closely together.
The Minister is proposing a new Partnership Board, bringing together primary care, community care, public health, government services and the charitable sector to oversee development and delivery of a whole-system strategy, to plan joined-up services and recommend spending priorities.
The planned Healthcare Facilities will be developed over the next 10 years and will include:
• Enid Quenault Health and Wellbeing Centre at Les Quennevais - a newly operational facility which is home to a range of therapies and services formerly located at Overdale.
• Samarès Ward at St Ewold’s - a newly refurbished facility located at St Ewold’s Residential Care Home, which includes rehabilitation services, overnight beds and therapies.
• An Acute Hospital at Overdale will include an emergency department, critical care, women and children’s services, elective and emergency operating theatres, and all inpatient wards where an overnight stay is required.
• Outpatients and Ambulatory facility at Kensington Place and Gloucester Street will include a walk-in treatment centre, diagnostic testing, outpatient clinics and day surgery.
• A Health Village in St Saviour will include services such as mental health, rehabilitation and stepdown beds, and hydrotherapy and therapies.
Diverse Housing Choices and Options
|
Short-term |
Medium-term |
Long-term |
|
Helping Islanders who receive care at home |
Making ‘right-sizing’ easier |
Giving Islanders more choice |
Short-term - Helping Islanders who receive care at home
The Government is committed to supporting people to stay in their own home for as long as possible, so they can remain close to their family, friends and the wider community. In 2024, the Minister for Social Security introduced a new “Ancillary Home Care Costs” benefit.
The benefit is available to anyone with an income support claim who is receiving care via the island’s Long-Term Care scheme. This change is intended to assist with the extra costs these Islanders face as a result of care being provided at home (e.g. higher utility costs) and provide support both for older Islanders and for young adults. It has helped over 260 families so far.
As part of a wider project to ensure a sustainable and equitable long-term care scheme, the Minister for Social Security published a report earlier in 2024 setting out her intention to introduce a standard hourly rate for domiciliary care, as well as further plans to develop and improve how the scheme operates in the domiciliary care sector.
Medium-term – Making ‘right-sizing’ easier
For many (if not most) owner-occupiers, their most significant asset – acquired over a lifetime of work – is their home. A property can provide significant financial security but can also create concerns as to upkeep and maintenance costs for older homeowners.
The Bridging Island Plan seeks to ensure that there is a range of housing types and sizes to better meet the island’s housing needs, including the provision of smaller homes, to encourage and enable ‘right-sizing’, where appropriate.
In May 2024, the Government published the island’s first “Right-Sizing Policy”, which outlines how the Minister for Housing is working with Jersey Development Company, social housing providers, and our parishes to help people find and relocate to a property that is right for them.
In addition, the government’s Housing Advice Service is available for people looking to move home, which provides support to prospective right-sizers.
Long-term - Giving Islanders more choice
While receiving care at home would be the choice many of us would like to make, often this is not possible as many existing older buildings are difficult to access or don’t have the facilities needed to provide the care needed. There are limited options today for people who would like to stay in their own home but require some extra help or a resident warden. Technology will help in many cases – providing alarms and safety devices, but Jersey also needs to invest in its building stock - creating more homes that are comfortable and equipped to provide the support needed for people living independently with care needs.
Since 2007, the island’s building byelaws technical guidance have sought to ensure that new dwellings provided in Jersey are accessible and adaptable to residents’ long-term needs, to enable them to cope better with reducing mobility and remain longer in their own homes. The Bridging Island Plan includes Policy H7 to encourage the development of supported housing in built up areas and on 3 specific rezoned sites. In general, therefore, the need for homes that better meet the needs of older people might be met by the provision of smaller units of accommodation as part of the overall supply of homes, whether that be in the open market or as affordable homes. These are best provided in those parts of the island’s built-up area with best access and proximity to local services, facilities, and public transport; or where people are best able to remain connected to their existing support network of family and friends.
The extent to which this approach can meet the challenges of an ageing society is something that will need to be considered as part of the next island plan review. This is a long term aim that Ministers will seek to explore further in the next Island Plan cycle.
Participation and Social Inclusion
|
Short-term |
Medium-term |
Long-term |
|
Listening to the views of older islanders |
Linking Islanders to social activities |
Supporting community networks |
Short-term - Listening to the views of older Islanders
The Older Persons’ Living Forum has met every quarter in 2024. It is attended by representatives from a range of community groups who are over the age of 65. This year the Forum has discussed such topics as the Community Transport Scheme, Blue Badge space misuse,
women’s health, Closer to Home, the development of the new hospital, assisted dying, cash payments, social security benefits, online accessibility and the closure of bank branches.
The Minister for Social Security has attended a Forum meeting in person to hear directly from older people. Officers from a range of departments attend each Forum meeting, providing an invaluable opportunity for older Islanders to speak directly to Government officials.
Medium-term - Linking Islanders to social activities
The Minister for Social Security has launched an online directory this year for Islanders to find activities and community groups in Jersey. During 2025, the Government will work with local GPs so they can refer their patients to activities as well as to more specialist care (this approach, called ‘social prescribing’, is already in use by the NHS).
By 2026, any GP in Jersey will be able to refer a patient to a Link Worker, to assess their individual needs. The Link Worker will then introduce that person to any relevant local community programs/services, or social activities, that might benefit their wellbeing.
Long-term - Supporting community networks
Jersey has a strong community spirit and looking forwards, Ministers will work together to encourage the community and voluntary networks that support that spirit. With an increasing number of old and very old people in Jersey, we will need to find new ways to support each other to ensure that everyone can feel part of a community. In particular, we will seek to alleviate loneliness amongst older people, many of whom live alone.
|
Short-term |
Medium-term |
Long-term |
|
Providing services across the island |
Improving access to public spaces |
Planning for accessibility |
Short term - Providing services across the island
The Government has invested significant resources, in recent years, towards providing more services outside of St Helier. In 2024, four Closer to Home events were held across the island, enabling more people to access the support of between 20-30 charities, community organisations and government services.
Closer to Home events include health checks, career advice, and physical and cultural activities – all provided to the public free of charge. Some events are themed to provide targeted support; for example, previous events have focused on cost-of-living increases, the over 55s community, and carers.
Medium term - Improving access to public spaces
Ensuring the accessibility of public buildings is vital. The design of the new Government building in Union Street has been completed with accessibility in mind. Bringing together a wide range of public services into a new accessible building will ensure that all Islanders can access the services they need in the medium-term.
During 2025, Jersey’s first Community Transport initiative will be fully operational. A not-for- profit entity has been established, and a board has been appointed to oversee the Community Transport initiative. Separately, government will work with parishes to increase the proportion of parking spaces that are available for Blue Badge holders.
Long term - Planning for accessibility
The 2024 CSP includes a commitment to revitalise St Helier, including making the town more accessible. The design of urban areas and the location of shops, leisure activities and other services can make a real difference in creating accessible environments. Future planning will take full account of the needs of older islanders to be able to move safely around the Island and have easy access to the services that they need.
[1] published as part of the Future Economy Programme
[3] Population and Migration Statistics Update 2022: note that the 2022 figures were revised as part of the 2023 report
[5] Statistics Jersey: Residential and employment status and nationality statistics are reported here ‘experimentally’ to highlight that the methodology and figures are in the testing phase. The statistics potentially have a wider degree of uncertainty and should be interpreted with care. Publishing experimental statistics gives an opportunity to involve potential users and stakeholders in assessing their quality and suitability, while still providing useful information for users.
[6] A person may be eligible for more than one nationality or hold multiple passports. A person is only able to declare one nationality for these purposes. Where a person self-declares their nationality, this may not match the country that they have migrated to Jersey from.
[9] Fertility rates | OECD, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
[11] Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 - The Lancet
[13] Scott , Andrew J. “The Longevity Imperative: Building a Better Society for Healthier, Longer Lives” (p.4).