Population Policy Report

POPULATION POLICY REPORT _______________

Lodged au Greffe on 5th November 2002 by the Policy and Resources Committee

______________________________

STATES OF JERSEY

STATES GREFFE

150 2002 P.205

Price code: C

PROPOSITION

THE STATES are asked to decide whether they are of opinion -

( a) to refer to their Act dated 4th November 1997, in which they approved existing policies in relation to

population and, having full regard to the Island's international obligations and the U.K. Immigration Act 1971, as extended to the Island and within a detailed licensing framework to be agreed by the States, to agree in principle new policies as follows -

   ( i) a l l n e w ly arriving persons who are not residentially qualified under Regulation 1(1)(a)-(h) of the

Housing (General Provisions) (Jersey) Regulations 1970, as amended, and who seek to occupy property or work in the Island, will require a licence;

   (ii  ) a ll  p e rs ons who are not residentially qualified under Regulation  1(1)(a)-(h) of the Housing (General

Provisions) (Jersey) Regulations 1970, as amended, and who already occupy property in the Island at the date it is agreed these new policies should commence, will be entitled to a licence by virtue of that occupation;

   (ii  i) a sin  g le authority should be established for the purposes of determining applications for licences to

occupy property or work in the Island;

   ( iv ) a l l p e r sons who are residentially qualified under Regulation  1(1)(a)-(h) of the Housing (General

Provisions)(Jersey) Regulations 1970, as amended, should, subject to proof of qualification, have no obligation to apply for a licence whether to occupy property or to work in the Island and nor should their employers, (if any), need to seek consent for them to work in the Island;

   ( v ) a s tr a te gic objective be set, such that within ten years of the States agreeing detailed proposals in

relation to (a)(i) to (a)(iv) above, all persons who establish themselves in the Island by virtue of (a)(i) and (a)(ii) above, excluding seasonal and short-term workers, as being entitled to occupy property or to work in the Island, should be enabled to participate in the Island's housing market so that all long-term residents have fair and just access to residential accommodation; and,

  (b ) in order to give effect to the policies established by (a)(i) to (a)(iv) above and the strategic objective set by

(v) above to charge -

   ( i) th e In d ustries and Housing Committees, in consultation with other committees as appropriate, to

review the Housing (Jersey) Law 1949, the Housing (General Provisions) (Jersey) Regulations 1970, the Lodging Houses (Registration) (Jersey) Law 1973 and the Regulation of Undertakings and Development (Jersey) Law 1973, together with other related legislation, and to bring forward, through the Policy and Resources Committee, detailed proposals to give effect to (a)(i) to (a)(v) above;

( ii ) th e In d ustries, Education and Human Resources Committees, working together, to review current

policies with a view to encouraging the increased employment in the Island, in both public and private sectors, of skilled workers who have benefited from the Island's education system, and;

(ii i ) th e P o lic y and Resources Committee to -

    ( A ) d e v e lo p a n d bring forward proposals for the introduction of a system to create an electronic or

other suitable means to provide evidence of individual entitlement pursuant to (a)(i), (a)(ii), (a)(iv) and (a)(v) above in relation to the housing and labour markets;

( B ) s e e k to d e v elo p robust economic modelling techniques that will support the timely introduction

and operation of the licensing scheme envisaged in paragraph  (a) above and, having regard to Census data and all relevant economic, social and environmental factors, will facilitate a considered view of the desirable size and skills mix of the Island's population to be taken by the States from time to time;

    ( C ) p u b lis  h s t a tis  tics and information regularly on the situation regarding the population of the Island

and to present to the States annually a review of the situation regarding the population of the Island, beginning in 2004.

POLICY AND RESOURCES COMMITTEE

Notes:  1. T h e Finance and Economics Committee's comments are to follow.   2 . T h e Human Resources Committee's comments are to follow.

  3 . T h e Industries Committee's comments are to follow.

  4 . T h e Housing Committee's comments are to follow.

REPORT

Members will recall that, following a three-day debate on this subject in July 2002, there was a tied vote on the Committee's Proposition P.101/2002, which accordingly was not endorsed by the States. The Committee announced afterwards that it would take stock and revert to the States in the autumn.

The Proposition now brought back to the States is very similar to the earlier version. It reflects the fact that there was a fair consensus in the States during the debate in July that it was essential to tackle the inequities that were arising from the two- tier' housing market and that work therefore needed to be put in hand on a new, single licensing scheme to govern all newly- arrived persons who seek to occupy property or work in the Island. An approach on these lines was seen as the key to enabling the much needed housing market reforms to begin to progress.

The revised Proposition equally reflects the fact that there was clearly a degree of unease on the part of some Members about the proposal to introduce an assumption, for policy planning purposes (including the framing of the new licensing scheme) of annual net inward migration of 200 persons. An amendment to put this assumption at zero was defeated, but concern remained about the 200 figure, notwithstanding the reasons for it advanced by the Committee.

In the light of these considerations, the Committee believes that the most immediate task should be to seek agreement in principle on the strategic objective of ending the two-tier housing market over time and to get endorsement by the States for a start to be made in the New Year by the new Housing and Economic Development Committees on detailed work on a licensing scheme to facilitate the objective. The question of what given migration assumption should eventually underpin such a licensing scheme can be left to one side for the time being. The implications of an ageing population and a projected decline in the size of the workforce will have to be addressed eventually but the States can revert to this once they have before them the results of more detailed work on a housing scheme from the Housing and Economic Development Committees. This should be as soon as practicable during 2003 and that discussion will be able to be informed by the most up-to-date information about the population.

The Committee therefore commends the revised Proposition to the States on this basis.

Appended to this Report is a summary of main relevant statistics, prepared by the Statistics Unit. This is an updated and slightly expanded version of the summary that was circulated for the July debate. The Committee's previous report accompanying P.101/2002 remains relevant to the revised Proposition now presented.

Financial and manpower implications

There are no immediate implications. The policy work entailed in taking forward the Proposition, if it is agreed, will be handled from within existing resources. Looking ahead, the proposals in this report offer, the Committee believes, significant scope for streamlining and reducing existing functions of government, leading to resource savings. The proposals also have the potential to reduce regulatory burdens on the private sector.

APPENDIX

Statistics Unit Policy & Resources Department

Background statistics for the debate on Population Policy

Total Population:

March 2001 Census:  8 7 , 1 8 6

Census Change Natural growth Migration

(Births-Deaths) and other

5-year change 1996-2001 +2,040 68% 32% 10-year change 1991-2001 +3,100 81% 19%

March 2002 (estimated): 8 7 , 275

Ebb and Flow: (average number of persons per year, 1996-2000)

IN OUT

Seasonal (< 1year) 4,000 4,000

Transient Residents 2,500 2,445

Net 55 persons IN per year

Annual migration pattern

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000 Net

0 Transient -2,000 Seasonal

-4,000

-6,000

-8,000

Immigration Emigration Net

Annual net migration:

Annual net migration: 1991-2001

1,000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Population Projections:

The model for projecting the population (undertaken by the U.K. Government Actuary's Department) assumes that - any net migration (whether immigration or emigration) occurs -

• in the 16-25 year age band

for persons who are -

• re s identially non-qualified

• sin  gle

• ec o nomically active (with a job or seeking work)

w it  hout dependants.

The Census data showed that the model assumption was true for 82% of residentially non-qualified persons aged between 16 and 25 years who arrived in the Island in calendar year 2000.

Immigrants, once resident in the Island, are then assigned the age-specific Jersey fertility and mortality rates, i.e. they have children and die with the same probabilities as the resident population.

Definitions:

  Wo   r k in  g Age: men aged 16-64 years

      w  o m e n ag e d 1 6 - 5 9 y e a r s

  D e p e n d ants: th e sum of:

      c h ild  r e n a g e d 1 5 o r u n d e r

      r e ti r em  e n t a g e ( w o m  e n /m  en aged 60/65 and over)

Projections for year 2031 Summary  of  population  projections

from 2001 to 2031:

2001 Census

Total population 87,186 Working age 57,010 Under 16 years 15,670

Retired 14,510 (aged 70 years or 8,700 over)

Net migration scenario (persons

per year)

Projected numbers of Working Age and Dependants:  2001-2031:

+200  Zero -200 under  +200,  zero  and -200  net

migration per year

97,340 88,620 79,850

Number of people of worki 55,240 48,790 42,310 under +200, zero, -200 ne

70,000

15,270 13,000 10,710

60,000

26,830 26,830 26,830 =>+85% 50,000

16,900 16,900 16,900 =>+93%

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

2001 2006 2011 201

Dependency Ratio

=  ( U n d e r 1 6 + R  e tir  ed )

        W o r k ing A g e    

Projections for year 2031

Historical average 2001 Net Migration scenario

(persons per year)

(1931-2001 Censuses) Census +200 Nil -200

0.54 0.53 0.76 0.82 0.89

• N e t immigration of +400 persons per year can be expected to maintain the current dependency ratio (0.53) until 2011;

• a fte  r this date, much greater immigration would be required to maintain the ratio due to the ageing of the population;

Jersey's Dependency Ratio : 1931 - 2031

Historical and under different Net Migration Scenarios

1.0

0.9

Historic

0.8 -400 -200

0.7 Nil +200

0.6 +400 Average 0.5

0.4

1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

Population structure over the very long-term (2001-2061): Zero net migration

Projected population structure with Zero net migration

120,000

90,000

60,000

Above working age Working age

30,000 0-15

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

• u n der zero net migration the population rises to a peak of 89,200 in 2023, and then decreases due to the mortality of the ageing population.

+200 net migration per year

Projected population structure with +200 net inward migration per annum

120,000

100,000

80,000 60,000

Above working age

40,000 Working age

0-15

20,000

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

• u n der net immigration of +200 persons per year, the population rises to a peak of 98,100 in 2040 and then remains effectively constant (mortality of ageing residents balances the effect of immigration).

Labour Market: 1996-2001

• Pe  ople employed:  s tatic since December 1999;  peaked in late 1998

• Pu  blic sector: 5% increase since 1996 (mostly before June 1999)

    h a s r e m a in  e d a t 1 2 %  of total employment 1996-2001

• Fin  ancial sector: 2 5 % of total employment at December 2001

      h a s i n c re a s e d f r o m 2 2% of total at December 1996

• E mployment Qualifications (includes 5-year rule)

   D e c e m b e r 2 0 0 1:   8 4 % locally qualified;

          2 %  " (j ) " c a te g o r y ;               1 4 % n o n - lo  c all  y q u a l if ie d    

• U nemployment (Census figures)

      f e ll b y 3 4 %  f ro m   1 , 5 4 9 i n 1996 to 1,022 in 2001

• V acancies

Total Vacancies

5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000

0

Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01

Vacancies and shortfall of skill-base => wage-led inflationary pressure

Manifested in:

  R e ta il P rice Index (RPI) + 4 .2% per annum (Sept 2002)   A v e r ag e Earnings Index  + 4.2% per annum (June 2002)

Housing

• H ouseholds gaining residential qualifications:

a p proximately 120  households per year under current 18 year rule;

a  one-year  reduction  in  the  qualifying  period  brings  approximately  an  additional  140  households  into qualified status

• D welling units required over the next 5 years:

  (r e - a n a lysis of Couttie survey data by the Statistics Unit: January 2002)   in c lu  d es the effect of migration

Net Migration scenario (persons per year) +200 Nil -200

Qualified sector 3,180 3,110 3,020 Non-qualified sector 1,160   990   840

• Po  tential surplus in private rental accommodation:

th e requirement in the non-qualified sector could be met by a substantial surplus in private rental accommodation which

would appear if appropriate numbers of owner-occupier and social rented housing were built over the five-year period;

th e Island Plan implies building 90% of the qualified sector requirement; the projected private rental surplus would then

be at the level of 2,000 units by 2007;

if non-locally qualified residents were permitted access to private rental accommodation, the potential surplus could

accommodate all the unqualified demand under any of the migration scenarios. The Current Resident Population: 2 0 01 Census

Residential Qualifications:

2001 Census: (a-h):  77% ( j- k ):  2% N  o  n  -qualified:  21%

"(j)" category:

  to ta  l = 1 ,100; Public sector = 40%;  arrival rate = 240 per year

1 1 % o f qualified teachers are "(j)" category; 31% of doctors; 2 5 % o f dentists;  16% of nurses, midwives, health visitors.

Economic Activity:

• 8 2% of working age population were economically active,

i. e. eith  er working or seeking employment; (4 %   p o in  ts higher than U.K., both genders)

• 6 7% of total population; (constant 1991-2001:  male rate decreasing;

              f e m a le   r a te in c r e a sin g )        

• 2 9% of the economically active were not residentially qualified

Skill-base: (working age population)

• 1 1% at d egree level (U.K. = 16%)

• 3 4% n o f ormal academic qualifications (U.K. = 16%)    (in  c lu d in  g 1 in 5 managers/senior officials)

Comparisons with other jurisdictions: (2001 Censuses) Change in resident population:

5 yr change (1996-2001) 10 yr change (1991-2001)

Jersey Guernsey Jersey Guernsey

otal population

% change in total ue to:

  N a tu  ral growth

  N e t

immigration

+2,040 +1,130 +2.4% +1.9%

68% 43% 32% 57%

+3,100 +940 +3.7% +1.6%

81% 99% 19% 1%

Jersey: 1996-2001

Guernsey: 1996-2001

32%

Natural Growth

Net Immigration 43%

57%

68%

Dependency Ratio:  (for 2001 unless specified)

1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0

Jersey Guernsey Isle of Man UK UK in 2031 Jersey in 2031

(nil net migration)

For  comparative  purposes,  dependency  ratios  have  been  calculated  with  working  age  defined  as  16-59/64  years (women/men) for all jurisdictions. In Guernsey the working age is actually 15-64 for both sexes. For the U.K., the state pension age will change to 65 for both sexes between 2010 and 2020, resulting in the projected dependency ratio in 2031 reducing to 0.66.

Ageing of the population

Percentage of the total population above a given age:

Jersey Guernsey 65+ 14.1 15.7 85+ 1.9 2.0

Economic activity of the working age population

(figures are percentages)

Isle of Man U.K.

16.7 15.9

2.3 1.9

Jersey Guernsey* Isle of Man U.K. Men 87 86 86 83

Women 76 71 76 72

All 82 78 81 78

* for Guernsey working age is defined as 15-64 for both men and women; in the other jurisdictions it is defined as 16-59/64 for women/men, respectively.

Population Density

Population density: (persons per square kilometre)

1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0

Jersey Guernsey Isle of Man UK

• If the 2 km2 of the St. Helier reclamation site are included in the total area of Jersey, the population density is 738 per km2.

• Ju risdictions with magnitudes of population density comparable to the Channel Islands include Barbados (629), Bahrain (910) and Bermuda (1,128 per km2).

Statistics Unit

Policy and Resources Department October 2002