‘j’ category employees and ratio of dependents per immigrant worker figures arising from 2001 census

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WRITTEN QUESTION TO THE CHIEF MINISTER BY DEPUTY G.P. SOUTHERN OF ST. HELIER

ANSWER TO BE TABLED ON TUESDAY 27th MARCH 2007

Question 1

1. W  ill the Chief Minister advise whether the ratio of1.8dependants per immigrantworker arising from the 2001 census is still applicable to new j' category employees today, and ifnot will he inform members what the correct figure is?
2. W i llhe further inform members –

(i )  w  hat overall change occurred in j'category consent activity between the first half of 2006 (to June

1st) and the second half in real and percentage terms?

(i i) w hat change occurred in the proportions of time-limited and unlimited consents over this period?

3. D o es the Chief Minister consider that there is a link between the 77%rise (from 84 to 149)in j' category purchaseconsents between 2005 and 2006, theincreaseinpermanent j' category licencesand the change in policy to allow private sector j' categories to purchase in their ownnames?Isthetrendin increased j' category numbers and j' category purchaseconsentspredictedto continue?
4. G i ven that the 2%oftheworking population who are j' categories were responsiblefor7.3%ofhouse purchaseconsents in 2006, does the ChiefMinister still maintain that j' category activity hasno effect on house-price inflation whichwe have witnessedin the latter half of2006 and into 2007?
5. D o es the Minister anticipate that therateatwhich j' category approvalsbecomeconverted into j' category housingconsents will increase now that most j' categories will bepermanentappointments?

Answer

1. T h e ratioof 1.8 dependents per 'j' categoryemployeewas calculated at the timeofthe 2001 census. The Jersey AnnualSocialSurvey provides a good pointof reference, andthe next roundof the survey - which will be taking place later this year - should provide a sampleof sufficient size to be able tocomment on any change in the average numberofdependents, and there will be a further opportunity toassess the ratio of dependents after the 2011 census.
   2. Fifty-seven j' category purchaseconsents were issued over the five month period to 31st May2006, and  92forthesevenmonthperiod to 31st December2006.On a like for like basis, this represents a 15% increase (accountingforthe different time frames).

It is worth noting that the  latter part of the year, covering the summer months,  is a traditionally busie period for the whole housing market. In 2005, for example, 31 j' category consents were issued in the period to 31st May, and 53 in the period from 1st June to 31st December.

(i i)  O  ver the first five months to 31st May 2006, 95% of applications were granted with a time limit; over the

seven months between 1st June and 31st December 2006, 32% of applications were granted with a time limited consent.

3. It i s interesting to note that growth in j' purchaseconsentswashigherbeforetheintroductionof the new Contract Policy than it wasafter the policy was introduced, as evidencedby the table below.

j' purchase consents 2005 2006 % increase on

prior period Pre-new Contact Policy

Five Months to 31st May 31 57 84%

Post-new Contract Policy

Seven Months to 31st December 53 92 74% 12 Month Period 84 149 77%

This is the case because it is the performance of the economy, and financial considerations, which overridingly drives housing demand, as opposed to something like a new Contract Policy. At the same time, and vitally, this consequence of economic success needs close monitoring. This is taking place, with decisions on j' applications being made within the overall States approved target of 2% economic growth and no more than 1% average annual working population growth.

4. It h asnever been stated that j' category purchases have noimpacton the housingmarket,simply that any impact is minimalinlightof the fact that 92% of purchases are madeby locally qualified individuals. This was clearly stated in a previous responsegivenon the 21stNovember 2006. As also stated in the same response -

" i t is simply not plausible, in the context of large increases in local employment and real economic growth for the first time in 5 years, to ascribe the increase in house prices to a small number of essential employees.".

It s h o uld be noted that 3% of the total working population are  'j' category employees (Manpower Survey–

30th June 2006). The figure of 2% comes from the manpower survey, but is a private sector comparison only.

5. T h e statistics in the tableinanswer (c) aboveare clear. Growth in j' purchases did not accelerate on introduction of the new contract policy, but is rather a consequenceof economic growth.

T h e n ew contract policy reduces staff turnover and encourages stability in the labour market, and by the

same token, over the medium term, the new policy will also reduce turnover and volumes in the housing market.

Question 2

Will the Minister reveal to members what figures are projected for possible net annual inward migration to achieve the 2% economic growth called for in the economic growth plan and whether this figure refers to heads of households only or includes dependants?

Answer

The  States target of 2% real economic growth is based on  1% growth in theworkforce.   The growth in the workforce will be achieved through increased participation  of local people,  and inward migration will only b allowed  where  key  skills  (that  will  facilitate  growth  and  employment)  are  required  and  where  housing requirements  be accommodated within existing  projections.