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WRITTEN QUESTION TO THE CHIEF MINISTER
BY DEPUTY M.R. HIGGINS OF ST. HELIER ANSWER TO BE TABLED ON TUESDAY 16th NOVEMBER 2010
Question
Does the Council of Ministers have aneconomic growth plan for 2011, 2012 and 2013 and, if so, will the Chief Minister publish it and would he explain to members where he sees the growth coming from in the economy during this period?
Will he further publish the Council of Ministers' estimates for the percentage level of economic growth in these periods for the economy for a whole and for identifiable sectors of the economy; and estimates of when it is expected that the Jersey economy will reach the overall level of GDP/GVA that existed in the Jersey economy immediately prior to world wide financial crisis and Jersey entering the recession?
Answer
The 2009-2014 Strategic Plan sets out the Council of Ministers approach to economic policy, which is covered largely in Chapter 2:"Maintain a strong, environmentally sustainable and diverse economy". The Council of Ministers in response to the forecast structural deficits have committed to a three part plan which includes boosting the economy in order to maximise jobs for Islanders and tax revenues. The Economic Development and Treasury and Resources Ministers have already started work to examine how current policies can be improved to meet this objective and any findings will be published in due course.
The Council of Ministers' estimates for economic growth between 2010 and 2012 are published in the Draft Budget Statement 2011 in Chapter 3: Economic Outlook. A further decline in GVA is anticipated this year, followed by weak growth of 1% in 2011 and further moderate growth of 2% in 2012. The assumption for 2013 is that growth will continue in the region of 2%. Given the severe nature of the global recession and its impact on the finance industry the Council of Ministers is not expecting the economy to return to the overall level of activity before the global financial crisis for many years to come.
The Fiscal Policy Panel will publish its latest assessment of the Economic Outlook on November 29 ahead of the Budget debate, which will give their perspective on these issues.