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WRITTEN QUESTION TO THE MINISTER FOR HOUSING BY DEPUTY R.G. LE HÉRISSIER OF ST. SAVIOUR
ANSWER TO BE TABLED ON TUESDAY 23rd FEBRUARY 2010
Question
"What statistical sources do the Minister and his Assistant draw upon in making their estimates of overall housing and social housing supply and demand?"
Answer
Estimates of housing supply are primarily established using:
• The Department of Planning and Building Services records on housing completions and outstanding commitments which include planning and building permits issued and those sites under construction;
• Other known sites already zoned or earmarked for housing purposes;
• Relevant Housing Department projects and home sales identified in the Property Plan; and
• Other potential future sources of housing identified on proposed in the draft Island Plan, including :
- St. Helier Waterfront;
- Town of St. Helier (informed by the Town Capacity Study); and
- Windfall developments elsewhere (based predominantly on past trends).
On the question of demand, the Housing Department works closely with both the Statistics Unit, Population Office and the Planning Department in the collection of information which contributes to the assessment of the overall need for housing and social housing in the Island. These sources include;
• The Housing Needs Survey - this is undertaken regularly by the Statistics Unit on behalf of the Housing and Planning and Environment Ministers. The latest survey was conducted at the end of 2007. Surveys look to establish housing requirements based on expressed housing aspirations.
• An Island wide census, planned for 2011
• Population projections in the Statistics Unit's 'Population Model' combined with an assessment of potential private household formation. In this instance, each potential future private household is taken as
an expression of demand for a home. Such information was used to inform the Council of Ministers in its review of the population issue for Jersey, the latest 'Imagine Jersey' exercise and the current Island Plan review process.
Both of these sources allow for proper account to be taken of the States' strategic decisions regarding the level of controlled future net in-migration.
• States Rental Waiting and Transfer Lists; The Housing Department administers and manages applications for States rental housing, shifts in demand can be quickly identified and trends plotted
Other sources of information on housing demand include:
• Quarterly house price statistics;
• Industry views of the local housing market ;
• The Jersey Annual Social Survey which enables ongoing monitoring of household variables such as size, structure, tenure and occupancy issues
In future, we plan to develop the 'Affordable Housing Gateway' which is a specific objective of Aim 14 of the States Strategic Plan. This gateway will provide a single point of access for all applicants requiring affordable housing and will include all local providers, the Housing Department, Housing Trusts and all of the Parishes. In this way we will have a complete picture of the demand for affordable housing, whether that be homes to rent or homes to buy and we can be confident that all of that need has been means tested on a consistent basis.