What is the annual number of primary school children from 2000 to date with demographic profiles, current births trends and associated inward migrant numbers and what are the predictions up to 2020

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WRITTEN QUESTION TO THE MINISTER FOR EDUCATION, SPORT AND CULTURE BY DEPUTY P.V.F. LE CLAIRE OF ST. HELIER

ANSWER TO BE TABLED ON TUESDAY 7th JUNE 2011

Question

Would the Minister state the annual number of primary school children in Jersey from 2000 to date and, given demographic profiles, current births over deaths trends and associated inward migrant numbers, advise what the predicted primary school numbers are, on an annual basis, from now until 2020?

Answer

The annual numbers of primary school children in Jersey from 2000 to date, as measured in January each year, are as follows

It should be noted that although the number of pupils has reduced by approximately 550 over the period 2000 to 2011, the last six years have remained relatively constant. In order to manage falling pupil numbers there has been a reduction in the number of forms of entry at Rouge Bouillon and Samarés schools. In addition, La Pouquelaye and St. Mark's schools have been closed and replaced by a two-form entry school (d'Auvergne School), resulting in a reduction in fixed costs.

Taking into account demographic profiles, current birth trends, and associated inward migrant numbers, the predictions for future years are as follows:

Student numbers are predicted to increase by approximately 360 over the period 2012-2020.

Immigrant numbers do of course contribute to the changes but the largest factor is the recent increase in the birth rate, with the number of births being in excess of 1000 per year for the last 4 years. This will result in an increased demand on places in primary schools. The Department is continuously monitoring the situation, and will respond as necessary to any changes in the forward projections for student numbers.