Population figures used for the proposed new hospital with supplementary questions

3.8  Senator S.C. Ferguson of the Minister for Health and Social Services regarding the size of population upon which the size of the proposed new hospital was being based:

Would the Minister confirm the size of population upon which the size of the proposed new hospital is being based?

Deputy A.E. Pryke of Trinity (The Minister for Health and Social Services):

The hospital pre-feasibility spatial assessment project uses a bed model generated from the most recent activity data plus a projected population growth of additional 150 households per year. The base data was an analysis of actual inpatient data from a 3-year period which incorporated key assumptions about demographic change and service change. The 150 additional households per year is a population growth projection endorsed by the States Statistics Unit.

The Bailiff :

So what was the answer to the question? [Laughter]  

The Deputy of Trinity :

As I said, on base data already given and base data on the 150 heads of household per year. The Bailiff :

The question was what the size of the population was. Ministers really should focus on the question. What was the size of the population upon which the proposals for the hospital has been based, 100,000, 110,000, 95,000?

The Deputy of Trinity :

I have not got that exact figure.

The Bailiff :

Ministers should concentrate on the question and answer it.

1. Senator S.C. Ferguson:

The new hospital must have been planned for a range of population numbers. What is that range?

The Deputy of Trinity :

Some of the key assumptions were mostly on demographic change as we know that we are an ageing population and that was part of it and key assumptions too.

2. Deputy G.P. Southern of St. Helier :

For the Minister to suggest that the Statistics Unit has endorsed a figure, whether she likes it not, is misleading the House. The Statistics Unit will endorse any projection that you like, 150, 100, 200, 500, and say this is what the population will end up looking like. Will the Minister retract the statement that that figure is endorsed by the Statistics Unit because that is misleading?

The Deputy of Trinity :

The 150 households is a States decision and that number was put into the base analysis plus - very importantly - on our 3-year recent data because that data is very important because we are seeing a significant increase in the number of people using inpatient care.

3. Deputy G.P. Southern :

In the absence of an up-to-date population policy, will the Minister engage in urgent discussions with the Council of Ministers so we can have a debate on what is the appropriate population in this Island so that decisions like this can be made?

The Deputy of Trinity :

I understand that has already been processed and it is coming back towards the end of the year in the spring.

4. Deputy J.H. Young:

The Minister has informed us that the scale of the hospital will be based on existing clinical practice plus growth but could I ask the Minister to give us her opinion on how is it possible to plan for the future site of the hospital and look at available options if we do not know what the size of the clinical space is that we need?

The Deputy of Trinity :

As I said the current activity based on the 2011 data clearly demonstrates there is a considerable pressure on bed complements but also at present we are at 95 to 98 per cent capacity which is too high when thinking of infection control. For a safe level, that number needs to be in the region of 85 per cent. The number of beds will increase if we also do not put community strategies, which we passed in P.82, in place.

5. Deputy J.H. Young:

Could the Minister just tell us what is the size of the existing hospital in terms of square footage, on which we could make sense of that answer?

The Deputy of Trinity :

The current hospital size is approximately 38,000 square metres and we need to increase that because current hospital standards fall short of what are the recognised national standards within the H.O.S. (Hospital Operating System) of bed spacing for infection control, et cetera. The projected size will be approximately 64,000 square metres.

6. Deputy M. Tadier :

We know the square meterage of the hospital but not the population for which it will cater. Will the Minister confirm when she received notice of this oral question and does she not think that by failing to provide an answer to this Assembly, she is showing contempt for this Assembly?

[10:30]

The Deputy of Trinity :

As you know, the oral questions come in on Thursdays so as I said, it is on current data and the actual number of our current use and the bed occupancy, I can easily give that to States Members.

7. Deputy M. Tadier :

If she can so easily give it to us, why has she not been able to prepare it between Thursday and today, Tuesday, which I think is 5 days and if it is so easy, will she at least prepare it after the Assembly has withdrawn and circulate it by email?

The Deputy of Trinity :

Yes, I have just said that.

8. The Deputy of St. Ouen :

I am well aware that the Chief Minister and other Ministers are on a particular oversight group supporting the Minister as she looks at the hospital and other matters. Would she confirm that the Chief Minister has publicly stated that he would seek to maintain the population levels at 100,000 and that that is the figure that has been used to determine the future size of the hospital?

The Deputy of Trinity :

It is very difficult for me to confirm what the Chief Minister said but I shall ask him.

9. Deputy G.C.L. Baudains of St. Clement :

I believe my question was partly at least covered by that from Deputy Tadier . I am disappointed with the Minister's non-answer to what is a very straightforward question. Would she agree to circulate the correct answer - a straightforward answer to a straightforward question - as soon as possible?

The Deputy of Trinity :

I think I already said that.

10. Deputy M.R. Higgins:

Can the Minister tell us what population figure was used to determine the size of the hospital? Was it based on the existing 97,000? Was it based on some projection forward when our population policy fails and we get up to 110,000, or what figure was used to calculate the size of the hospital?

The Deputy of Trinity :

As I said, on our 3-year recent data because that is an important figure because we know that there is an increased number - and I will get the inpatient numbers to you - but the present capacity of inpatient numbers is running at 95 to 98 per cent. Sometimes it goes over the 100 per cent which is not right in this day and age because it raises the risk of infection control, and also we know that the hospital with 6 bays to a ward, does not allow the flexibility. But as I said, I will get that information.

Deputy M.R. Higgins:

With respect, the Minister waffled on about something that was not even related to the question. The question was quite specifically what population figure for the Island did the Minister base the size of the hospital on?

The Deputy of Trinity :

I said I will come back with some more information.

11. Senator S.C. Ferguson:

The cost, as we know, of the new hospital is now projected to be £430 million. Will the Minister explain why the new hospital being planned is for a high-end range size of 300,000 in population?

The Deputy of Trinity :

I do not know where she got that figure from and I would like to know where she got that figure from.