Guernsey's Carbon Emissions

Guernseys Carbon Emissions

Briefing Paper

Background:

This briefing paper is intended as an updated analysis of Guernsey's annual carbon emissions using the latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory data provided by AEA. For the first time, historical data showing the carbon content of fuel types are also included. Since Guernsey joined the UK in 2002 to ratify the Kyoto Protocol and UN Convention on Climate Change the Island has established with the support of Defra a local emissions inventory. This is now updated annually providing estimates of the six designated greenhouse gases and carbon equivalents.

Headlines:

• 618 kilotonnes (kt) of greenhouse gases (expressed as Carbon Dioxide equivalent) were emitted in 2007 compared with 622 in the previous year. This is a drop of 4 kts or 0.64%.

• The annual average emissions figure for the last 18 years is 668.7kts. This is 104.3kts higher than the target average requiring a reduction of 15.6%.

• To fulfil the Island's commitment to the UK's Kyoto Protocol target, emissions would need to drop by 80.6kt per annum to 2012.

• CO2 and Methane (CH4) are the most prevalent greenhouse gases which in 2007 contributed 96% of all six pollutants.

• Since 1990, emissions of carbon from stationary combustion, which includes emissions from boilers, combustion turbines, engines, incinerators, and process heaters have decreased from 82 to 60 kt Carbon, in 2008. Total emissions from stationary combustion accounted for between 46 and 100kts of carbon per annum, for the last 18 years. A significant source of stationary combustion in Guernsey is the Island's main electricity generating station, which in 2007 accounted for around 20 kt Carbon. However since the turn of the century total emissions have broadly halved which is largely due to the submarine electricity cable link with France.

Kyoto Protocol and UN Convention on Climate Change:

• Guernsey has signed up to the UK's instruments of ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. The UK's target under the Kyoto Protocol is a 12.5% decrease in emissions of the basket of 6 Greenhouse Gases from the Base Year by 2008-2012.

• Emissions inventories calculated under the Kyoto Protocol are Source Based – which means that the emissions are included at the point of release.

• Based on the 1990-2007 greenhouse gas inventory for Guernsey, emissions have fallen by 4.4% since the 1990/1995 Base Year. In order for Guernsey's emissions to achieve the same decrease in emissions as the UK target, emissions would need to fall to around 566 kt CO2 equivalent.

• This would require an average per capita reduction of 9.2 tonnes over the next four years.

Data from Guernsey's Greenhouse Gas Inventory are presented in Appendix 1.

Carbon Emitted by Source:

The emissions data presented here are not taken directly from the Greenhouse Gas Inventory, but are calculated using similar methods and source data.

Electricity Generation

Table 1: Total Fuel Burnt and Emissions

Fuel burnt Fuel burnt

Year CO emitted (tonnes)

(litres) (tonnes) 2

2004/5 11,376,023 10,955.11 35,148

2005/6 16,955,733 16,328.37 52,389

2006/7 33,700,022 32,453.12 104,120

2007/8 24,215,795 23,319.81 74,818 Source: Guernsey Electricity Ltd

Imported Electricity

The Greenhouse Gas Inventory for Guernsey does not include emissions associated with imported electricity, following the guidelines set out by the IPCC. The following table presents an estimate of emissions for the imported portion of electricity in Guernsey for information.

Table 2: Carbon Content of Imported Electricity

Units imported at Units exported at EDF carbon Total CO2 Year Barkers Quarry La Haye content emissions (MWh) (6% losses) (KgCO2/kWh) (tonnes)

2004/5 288,463 305,771 0.042 12,781

2005/6 276,812 293,421 0.052 15,277

2006/7 197,020 208,841 0.044 9,189

2007/8 257,093 272,518 0.047 12,790 Source: Guernsey Electricity Ltd

Table 3: Total Imported and Locally Generated CO2 Emissions

Units

Import Generate Total imported and

Year KgCO2/kWh

(tonnes CO2) (tonnes CO2) (tonnes CO2) generated

(MWh)

2004/5 12,781 35,147.64 47,928.87 341,556 0.140 2005/6 15,277 52,386.84 67,664.29 356,267 0.190 2006/7 9,189 104,120.43 113,309.43 355,195 0.319 2007/8 12,790 74,817.71 87,607.89 367,748 0.238 Source: Guernsey Electricity Ltd

The five year rolling average for KgCO2/kWh is 0.2118.

Oil based products

Table 4: Total Imported Oil Based Products

Transport (000's Heating/Electricity

Year Total (000's litres)

litres) (000's litres)

2003 38,224.00 75,797.00 114,621.00

2004 38,360.00 63,825.00 102,185.00

2005 40,984.00 68,372.00 109,356.00

2006 45,000.00 79,673.00 124,673.00

2007 44,362.00 81,176.00 125,538.00

2008 46,420.59 64,695.93 111,116.52 Source: Customs and Excise

Note: Methodological changes in the way diesel is classified in 2008 resulted in 10,000,000 litres being transferred from heating/electric to the transport category – in real terms there has been a significant decrease in fuel imported for transport since 2007. Included in the Heating/Electricity category is a small proportion (approximately 2% -2008 ) of diesel for electricity generation, the majority is used for commercial and domestic heating requirements.

Table 5: CO2 Emissions from Transport and Heating/Electricity

Transport CO2 Heating/Electricity

Year emissions (tonnes CO2 emissions KgCO2/kWh CO2) (tonnes CO2)

2003  90,236  196,962  0.244 2004  90,559  165,853  0.244

Liquid Petroleum Gas

Table 6: Consumption of Mains and Bottled Gas

Year Mains Gas Bottled Gas Total (000's KWh) (000's kWh) (000's kWh)

2003 103,690 23,170 126,860 2004 103,100 29,100 132,200 2005 100,565 28,975 129,540 2006 101,994 30,840 132,834 2007 85,959 25,218 111,177 2008

Source: Guernsey Gas

Note: 2008 data currently not available

Table 7: Total CO2 Emissions

KgCO /kWh Year CO2 Emitted (tonnes) 2

2003 27,148.04 0.214

2004 28,290.80 0.214

2005 27,721.56 0.214

2006 28,426.48 0.214

2007 23,791.88 0.214

2008 Source: AEA

Policy and Research Unit 16 June 2009

Calculation Methodology Greenhouse Gas Inventory:

Guernsey together with Jersey and the Isle of Man are included in the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory which is updated annually by AEA and is published by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (www.decc.gov.uk). Emission estimates are calculated by applying emission factors (carbon content of fuels) on processes producing emissions as opposed to measurements at the point of emission. Greenhouse gas emissions are calculated in the format required by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The UK inventory is reviewed every year, and the whole historical data series is revised to incorporate methodological improvements and the new data.

Carbon Intensity of Energy Sources:

Electricity:

Using Defra's Greenhouse Gas conversion tables each local fuel type (electricity, LPG gas and petroleum based products) is converted to measure its carbon emissions based on the gross calorific content. For local fuel types, the base data for electricity is sourced from Guernsey Electricity Ltd which is the quantity of fuel burnt for power generation together with electricity imported from France via EDF. Adjustments are made to take account of an average 6% per annum transmission losses between the point of despatch at La Haye and the point of entry at Barkers Quarry.

Due to fluctuations in imported power supply and to more effectively monitor trends over time a five year rolling average is calculated. This will reduce the distorting effect of the despatch regime in any one year.

Oil Based Products:

The calculation for determining the carbon content of transport and heating/electricity is based on a weighted average of the carbon content of fuels imported to Guernsey.

Transport fuels comprise aviation spirit, jet fuel and unleaded petrol. Fuels used for Heating/ Electricity comprising Kerosene, gas oil (diesel) and fuel oils.

LPG Gas:

To produce an annual carbon intensity figure for LPG gas, both bottled and mains are amalgamated providing an overall carbon emissions figure which is based on consumption data rather than imports. All data are supplied by Guernsey Gas Ltd.

Appendix 1

Table 1: Greenhouse Gas Pollutants (ktonnes )

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 548 609 565 578 587 606 637 660 649 654 703 529 514 516 483 504 541 537 CH4 (as CO2) 83 87 91 78 82 85 86 89 93 96 54 48 41 42 43 58 59 59

HFC, PFC & SF6 (as CO2) 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 8

TOTAL (as Carbon) 176 194 183 183 187 193 202 209 208 210 212 163 157 158 150 160 170 169

Source: AEA Technolology

Note: All greenhouse gases (GWP)

Chart 1: Guernsey Green House Gas Emissions (as CO2 equivalents)

900

800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

HFC, PFC & SF6 (as CO2) N2O (as CO2) CH4 (as CO2) Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

Table 2: CO2 Emissions by Sector (ktonnes)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Energy road transport 26 26 25 25 25 25 25 27 26 28 28 29 25 25 25 27 30 29

Source: AEA Technolology Note: CO2 emissions only

Chart 2: Carbon Emissions by Sector, 1990 – 2007

250

200 150 100 50 0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

Energy stationary combustion Energy road transport

Shipping Aviation

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Energy other mobile sources Industrial/domestic machinery TOTAL