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Name: phil perchard
Comments: Following on from my second submission I would like to add the following comment.
The Population Policy for Jersey is based on assumptions of fertility and mortality rates which have been derived from inaccurate and unreliable data. Furthermore, the degree of error in the data is 'unknowable but possibly large'
The unreliability of the data is exemplified by the fact that the ONS , where necessary, will modify the underlying assumptions every two years according to the latest, up to date population figures. This regular adjustment of the theory to fit the facts clearly demonstrates the unreliability of the population model as a forecasting tool. When gaps appear in the theory they are patched up with statistical polyfilla .
The proposal to grow the population by 150 households per year until 2035 has been made on the back of assumptions regarding fertility and mortality rates which are likely to be out of date within two years.