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States of Jersey Housing Waiting List Independent report
prepared by
D e pu ty Pa u l Le C la ire 20 1 1
Table of Contents
- States of Jersey Waiting List 2007 to July 2011 1
- Comparison of Units required June-July 2011, by type. 1
- The Minimumnumbers of people waiting June -July 2011 1
- Confirmation, methodology used to calculate a minimum number is accurate. 1
- Average waiting time in months for States Social Housing June 2011 1
- Data for All States Income Support June 2011 1
- Rent Rebate 1
- States of Jersey Transfer List 2007 to July 2011 1
- Comparison of States of Jersey Transfer Lists June-July 2011 1
- Comparison of States of Jersey Transfer list June-July 2011 1
- States of Jersey Social Housing Projections 1
- Supply and Demand for Affordable Housing in the States. 1
- The correlation betweensupply and waiting list level over the past 6 years. 1
- States of Jersey Housing Predictions as of May 2011 1
- Historical reference 1
- Total Population above 55 years of age for the same periods 1
- This represents an increase of 10,300 people above the age of 55 . 1
- These people will qualify in terms of age under current policies, to 1
- access social housing from the States of Jersey, in the future. 1
- Population Trajectory at current inward migration trends 1
- The following chart indicates the population that Jersey will have, if as for the last 4 years of published data it averages 725 people inward migrants a year . Not including births over deaths , which instead of
the 150 Heads of Households, represents 325 Heads of Households, which is 725 people, in addition to those alive in Jersey today. 2
- Current Status of 2008 Category A Sites June 2011 2
- P.75/2008 SITES APPROVED BY THE STATES OF JERSEY ON 16 JULY 2008 2
States of Jersey Waiting List 2007 to July 2011
This table shows the waiting list, of the States of Jersey Housing Department from 2005 until July 2011. On the 1st of July the number of units required was 461, this is 36 higher than in the briefing paper issued by the Housing Minister during the Island Plan debate, on the 23rd June, which then stood, at 425. The waiting list represents the number of units required, it does not reflect the number of individuals waiting to be housed. The actual number of adults and children waiting, is currently not published, by the housing department.
Statistics from States of Jersey Housing Department 2011
Comparison of Units required June-July 2011, by type.
This graph represents units required in June and July 2011.
During this period the Salisbury Crescent development completed for occupancy comprising of 34 units. This site originally purchased by the States in 2002, took 9 years, to become available for occupancy. As is evidenced by the increase of demand these 34 units have not decreased the need for States housing.
The Minimum numbers of people waiting June -July 2011
Numbers may be higher than shown but they can be no lower, or they would not meet the criteria for the housing units they have been assigned.
Numbers have been calculated by assigning a count of;
1 person for a 1 bed, 2 persons for a 2 bed and 3 persons for a 3 bed etc.
These people have been recognised as being in the most vulnerable section of our community. Many of these people are likely to be living in the private sector at this time and will most likely be in receipt of a States rental subsidy. Private rental subsidy is currently costing the States in excess of £10.5 Million a year, which arguably, could be better spent, on developing our own stock for the identified needs of the community.
Confirmation, methodology used to calculate a minimum number is accurate.
I received this response confirming the accuracy of my approach in estimating a minimum number of people waiting on the list, from the Director of Strategic Development in June 2011
Paul
Simple answer is yes, at least 900 if we use the assumptions you have used elsewhere, i.e. if we assume that a 1 bed unit is occupied by at least 1 person, a 2 bedroom by at least 2 people (1 parent + 1 child), a 3 bedroom unit by at least 3 people (1 parent plus 2 children of oppos- ing sex) and a 4 bed unit by at least 5 people (1 parent with 4 children assuming that there will be at least 2 who will share) then the 507 unit demand breaks down as a minimum of 955 people:-
Unit type unit demand Number of people (minimum)
1 bed 162 162 minimum 2 Bed 250 500 minimum 3 Bed 91 273 minimum 4 Bed 4 20 minimum
|Director of Strategic Development |Housing Department
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Average waiting time in months for States Social Housing June 2011
In response to questions the Housing Minister said in 2007 that the average wait for a 3 bedroom home was 3 months.
That waiting period has increased by 11 months and now on average people wait 14 months. (States Hansard)
Data for All States Income Support June 2011
Data supplied by Social Security June 2011
Rent Rebate
Rent rebate is now calculated to be costing the States of Jersey the following.
Statistics provided by the Social Security Department in June 2011
States of Jersey Transfer List 2007 to July 2011
It is noticeable that the number of applicants on the states housing Transfer list has dropped in this period, possibly as a result of some liquidity provided by Salisbury Crescent. Although this may appear to be good news, there are still some people waiting on average 33 months for appropriate housing to fit their needs. There is currently no reduction in rent payable to those who have excess rooms to requirements. If they wish to move to a 1 bed but occupy a 3 bed, they are charged for a 3 bed. It would be interesting to know if those in 1 beds waiting for 2 or 3 beds have any allowance made for inadequate supply against their rent. In H.M. Armed Forces there has long been a policy, of extra pay for sub standard accommodation to members of the Armed Forces. This helps to alleviate the difficulties experienced and engenders a tangible amount of "Good Will!"
Comparison of States of Jersey Transfer Lists June-July 2011
Comparison of States of Jersey Transfer list June-July 2011
States of Jersey Social Housing Projections
The States of Jersey Housing department use a model to predict housing need, developed in partnership with planning and the States Statistics unit, to help predict likely demand going forward. This model looks at historic application trends as well as tenancy turnover. The model takes into account assumptions on supply. The supply/completions end of the equation is vital and must be factored in if the outputs from the model are to be considered robust. The model is updated each month.
Housing expect 89 completions this year.
The model presently suggests that if new applications and turnover continue at the current rate and all the planned supply due this year materializes then the end of year waiting list will be somewhere in the order of 507 (broken down below). This will be an increase of 82 on the 1st January 2011 position of 425.
1 bed 162 2 Bed 250 3 Bed 91 4 Bed 4
The Chart on the next page shows predicted year end based upon this data from States of Jersey Housing department in May 2011.
Supply and Demand for Affordable Housing in the States.
States Housing
I contacted the housing department to ask about waiting lists for social housing.
Currently there 453 applicants on the list, waiting an average of 14 months for housing of which 10 families, are at the worst end of the spectrum with 3 families in the officers opinions effectively, homeless.
States housing is also importantly not accessible to singles and couples under the age of 55 without children.
Some anecdotal evidence suggests there is a limited amount of young women having children as this will get you housed and then obviously there are subsequent social issues arising from those that choose this path in order to achieve independent living and the social costs incurred to manage the outcomes of these choices for children and young Mothers in the long term.
The officers informed me that estimating forward for affordable housing' is complex.
The term affordable housing includes all Category A' housing, Social Rent, Homebuy, First Time Buyer and over 55's)
Set out below is the current social housing need, the historic waiting lists and how this has increased once supply dried up in 2008 and the projected waiting lists
(assuming current trends and existing supply provision)
The correlation between supply and waiting list level over the past 6 years is shown next. ( Data supplied by The States of Jersey Housing Department )
The correlation between supply and waiting list level over the past 6 years.
Looking forward, it is generally the supply uncertainty that complicates things and so housing prefer to state demand as a range at this stage.
This is set out in the next graph.
Housing have run 2 scenario's from their model.
A worst case scenario which only assumes that those sites presently underway are delivered. A best case scenario which assumes that all existing zoned sites are delivered in the next 5
years.
States of Jersey Housing Predictions as of May 2011
Either scenario is unlikely to be totally accurate and we are likely to see delivery somewhere in between. Housing has added a mid point figure for that reason. Interestingly though we are currently on target for mid point numbers estimated to be 456 for the end of June. Here we are on the 1st of June with 453 applicants currently on the list, representing a minimum of 882 people, a minimum of which, 411 are children.
The IP suggests that 475 affordable homes will be delivered in the first 5 years of the plan (proposal 17 – page 242).
It should be noted that the model is updated monthly as new application and void turnover data is available. The numbers do therefore change and are likely to be sensitive to economic conditions. Economic conditions and relatively high levels of Jersey un-employment with corresponding high priced private accommodation, mean that if they cannot go on the list then they will qualify for income support. A component of that is rent rebate. This is effectively a gift to the landlords courtesy of the tax payer and purchases no asset for the States, unlike social housing developed for the States or donated to it which is a tangible asset in terms of commodity and revenue through rents or deferred public expense by way of rent rebate credit.
Below is a list of the application numbers by bed type – only applicants who are successful in getting onto the waiting list are included here
The Future - "History has a habit of repeating itself!"
As the States Housing department's mid point indicators, seem to track fairly accurately, we are likely to see about 1500 families on the list by the end of the current Revised Island Plan period in ten years time in 2021.
History so often repeating itself, inspired me to research our recent past and what that is likely to mean in terms of predicting waiting times in the future.
At this time 452 families represent 882 people, of which an absolute minimum of those are 429 children, currently the waiting period is 14 months on average.
If we continue as planned and if we compare existing numbers in crude statistical terms with existing bed demand, by 2021 we are likely to see
2700 people waiting
3 and a half years to be housed
1500 of them children.
by definition, all are locally qualified people, representing the most vulnerable in our community, most of whom, will be waiting up to 3 and half years on average to be housed !
All States members are currently in possession of the following 3 key findings from the Independent Inspectors report in June 2011, ahead of the planned debate on the revised Island Plan.
- "There is a housing crisis in Jersey."
- "There is a serious danger that States Members risk failing in their
collective responsibility to deal with
this crisis."
- "Deferring the problem will do nothing to solve it and indeed will only make it worse"
Historical reference
The waiting period to achieve housing when the numbers were at similar levels in 1973 was up to 3 and half years on average, according to reports in the Jersey Evening Post on Thursday Oct 24th 1974 (Research conducted from microfilm from States of Jersey archive St Helier public library)
On the front page under the heading
"Housing to act to free homes for waiting list"
Mr. Mike Bisson reported the following;
In 1973 people were being re-housed after an average waiting period of 2 and a half to three and a half years.
His report went on to say;
The housing department were using a points system to award housing. 10 points were awarded if both husband and wife were Jersey born, 5 if only one party was Jersey born, 10 points if accommodation was condemned by the Public Health Committee, 5 for sub standard accommodation, 5 points for each child over 10 having to share a bedroom with a child of the opposite sex and 5 for accommodation unsuitable in another way;15 points for immediate medical grounds, ten for urgent medical grounds and 5 for less urgent cases. 5 points were awarded on financial grounds, 5 if the applicant was over 60 (difficult to see number from print out but that might be 50) and 5 for every year on the waiting list. The Housing office could award up to 10 discretionary points for other considerations and deduct 10 points for unreasonable refusal for accommodation offered and 5 for failure to renew an application. Families at the top of the queue could have had, in the region of 50 points but 50 points is the more general level for families near the top of the lists for each type of accommodation, who were not eviction cases or similar.
JEP Thursday Oct 24th 1974
A year Later on Saturday the 5th of October 1975 the JEP front page read;
Delays hit housing programme.
Liz Horn, reported, that delays had meant the housing programme was only "half way to target" in an interview with the States Housing Committee President, Senator Averty.
Remarkably it was reported that this was only being achieved, due to the recent introduction of the Control of undertakings and Development Law which had enabled a greater part of the building industry to be diverted to essential housing work.
(Under the forthcoming proposals for Migration and Housing due for debate on the 5th of July , changes will mean that the Regulation of Undertakings law will be scrapped! )
"Senator Averty re affirmed his belief, that five years should be allowed,
between the States approving a site and families moving in !"
The latest available housing waiting lists Statistics at the time, were for August the 31st 1974 showing that there were 1250 families on the list.
This total was 41 higher than June the 30th. In July 23 new applicants were accepted and a further 24 were added to the list in August
Only six families were re-housed in this period, four in July and 2 in August.
The Silver Tsunami
Recently published indicators from the States Statistics department show that Jersey is at a crossroads in terms of social provision for the elderly. The housing department have no role to play in the lives of single people or couples without children under the age of 55 as stated earlier but after this time they do.
So if we look at the current numbers of people who are of 55 years of age in our community to the end of the island plan period of ten years we will see what is the likely number of people who will migrate into this territory.
If we take that forwards until the housing is available 3-5 years from 2021 we can examine the demographic shift or as the transition is currently being labeled the "Silver Tsunami !"
This is a period where we will not only see a shift in mortality but also in the decreasing size of households because more and more people are living alone , divorcing or not getting married at all.
The current projections of those above 55 years of age by age group to 2025. This data was used by KPMG for their analysis of the future health care issues for Jersey
Total Population above 55 years of age for the same periods
Statistics supplied by the States of Jersey Statistics Unit
This represents an increase of 10,300 people above the age of 55 . These people will qualify in terms of age under current policies, to access social housing from the States of Jersey, in the future.
Population Trajectory at current inward migration trends
The following chart indicates the population that Jersey will have, if as for the last 4 years of published data it averages 725 people inward migrants a year . Not including births over deaths , which instead of the 150 Heads of Households, represents 325 Heads of Households, which is 725 people, in addition to those alive in Jersey today.
Statistics supplied by the States of Jersey Statistics Unit.
Current Status of 2008 Category A Sites June 2011
P.75/2008 SITES APPROVED BY THE STATES OF JERSEY ON 16 JULY 2008 On 16 July 2008, the States of Jersey approved Projet 75/2008 which rezoned 8 sites throughout the Island for Category A housing.
On 25 February 2009, the Minister approved the Planning Briefs and interested parties were invited to submit applications.
The planning department has held discussions on all of the sites, which are being progressed and are at different stages of advancement.
Fields 818 and part of Field 873, Trinity
An application was received from the Parish of Trinity on 25 November 2008 for 14 lifelong dwellings.
The application was approved on 18 February 2009. Development completed August 2010. Land north east of Maison St. Brelade
An application was received from the Parish of St Brelade on 19 September 2008 for an 21 bedroom extension to Maison St Brelade.
The application was approved on 18 February 2009. Project started on site January 2011. Fields 561 and 562, St. Mary
An application was received from a private developer on 21 August 2009 for 33 dwellings, providing a mix of first-time buyer, open market lifelong dwellings for the over-55s and lifelong dwellings for social rent.
The application was approved on 15 December 2009. Project started on site June 2010.
Field 274, La Lourderie, St. Clement
Following the issue of the development brief in February 2009, an initial design meeting took place on 12 June 2009 between the developers architect and the planning officer to provide a mix of approximately 42 lifelong dwellings for older people (over 55).
A planning application was approved June 2010.
Field 605, St. John
An application for 14 life-long homes was approved December 2010 Field 148, Rue des Maltières, Grouville
An application for 20 life-long homes was approved December 2010
Note: Field 605, St. John and Field 148, Grouville will be tied together with a planning obligation agreement which will deliver a 45% open market life-long homes on Field 605 and 55% social rent homes on Field 148.
Fields 516, 516A, 517 and 518, St. Saviour
Discussions have been underway with the developer to develop a mixed tenure retirement village of approximately 98 no. open market and 80 no. social rent lifelong dwellings (for people over 55). The developer has also reached an agreement with the Parish of St Saviour to provide them with thirty social rent lifelong dwellings free of charge.
The proposals also include a residential care and dementia home, guardian accommodation, and ancillary facilities. A public car park to relieve potential on-street parking in Chasse Brunet and amenity open space will also be provided as part of the development.
Since the release of the planning briefs in February 2009, the developer and his architect held an initial design meeting with planning officers on 4 March and several more meetings have taken place since to resolve the design issues, and a planning application is expected shortly.
Field 578, Trinity
The site could accommodate approximately 36 no. Category A homes, providing a mix of 30 no. first-time buyer and 6 no. one-bedroom lifelong dwellings.
A planning application is expected shortly.