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James Marshall, 21st June 2019
- The net migration of permanent residents should be significantly reduced.net migration of temporary workers (seasonal or multiple years, but with a time limit) is quite adequate for dealing with demographic changes - see Guernsey (we could learn something from them!). Additionally, short-, medium- and long-term plans should accurately account for recent and current migration trends. For example ensuring infrastructure and services are sufficient for the population, and ensuring the cost of this is accounted for.
- Naturally all of these areas are of some importance. I think work and housing control is the simplest way to reduce net migration; use the existing laws and reduce the number of registered and licensed permissions, introduce temporary work permits to make up the difference.
The aging demographic won't be helped by high net migration, it will just mean there are more old people to care for in the future. To deal with the problem, and not just delay it, we need *temporary* workers to offset the dependency ratio while the population ages, as the temporary workers will not stay to become old themselves Also tax / fiscal policy is relevant to the affordability of lots of low-paid migrants, who do not contribute to the tax take sufficiently to pay for the services they use. See the report published this year on household tax https://www.gov.je/Government/Pages/StatesReports.aspx?ReportID=4492 where the breakeven point for a couple with two children is £105,000 annual income. Endless migration of people into low value-added jobs is not sustainable!
- I think the better long-term solution is to greatly reduce net migration of permanent residents and use temporary workers to fill jobs traditionally filled by registered staff. At current net migration rates the population will double every few decades - we have had this rate for ten years, and it is obviously not sustainable for ever! If net migration is to continue in any form, it needs to be costed. Jersey needs to either raise significant tax revenue in other ways, or limit those coming in to jobs which will pay sufficiently, as they do for licenses in the finance sector.
- To reduce it to a level that is sustainable in the longterm. This should be much lower, for example the carefully calculated 350 annually. We would likely be in a better position now if leaders had taken steps to reach this level.
- Of the five suggestions, the first and last are the same. I think the first suggestion is ok for a small number of licensed permissions. I think registered permissions should largely be granted on a temporary basis.
I think suggestion two is very good, it just needs to be enforced properly. The CHWL would help as it is, if the number of permissions were controlled more. I think the requirement for licenses staff would be lower if temporary work permits were numerous and easy to get.
The third suggestion mostly seems to be a figleaf; trying to look tough on immigration, while having very little impact. However, it would be prudent to have criminal checks by default for all people travelling into and out from the Island. Using e.g. digital passport details to do a quick check.
Photos on registration cards seems fair enough. CLS should keep your status updated, and there should be an impetus for employees and employers to update it as well. Currently it seems some people are left as registered even when they are not, so long as they haven't had cause to go to CLS and update their status.
- As a member of the public, I think that organisations that rely on migrant labour could largely operate as they currently do with time-limited work permits. If they have positions that are skilled and are reluctant to retrain staff every few years, they can weigh that cost against paying a living wage and making those positions viable careers for permanent residents.
The longer net migration is unrestrained, the more every organisation and person in Jersey will pay (financially and otherwise). There is not such thing as a free lunch with migration; every person increases the infrastructure, services etc. required to serve the population, adds to housing pressure and so on.