Submission - Teacher Recruitment and Retention - NASUWT - 31 January 2020

CONSULTATION RESPONSE

States of Jersey

 Education and Home Affairs Scrutiny Panel Teacher Recruitment and Retention Review 31 January 2020

1. The  NASUWT  welcomes  the  opportunity  to  submit  comments  to  the Education  and  Home  Affairs  Scrutiny  Panel's  teacher  recruitment  and retention review.
2. The NASUWT is the largest union in Jersey representing teachers and school leaders.
3. Having considered the remit for the Inquiry carefully, the NASUWT believes it would be most helpful to the Panel for the Union to give an overview of those factors that pose the greatest risk to the maintenance of adequate teacher supply in the Island. The NASUWT's observations on these matters are set out below.

Prospects for teacher supply  

4. Jersey is very largely, if not totally, dependent on the UK for the training of teachers. The vast majority of off-island appointments come from the UK.
5. The dependence on the UK means that Jersey will continue to be vulnerable to the crisis in teacher recruitment and retention in England. The increasingly parlous  teacher  supply  situation  was  acknowledged  by  the  House  of Commons Public Accounts Committee in the findings of its inquiry into these matters published in November 2017. In particular, the Committee made clear its view that the Westminster Department for Education (DfE) had failed to get a grip on teacher retention'.

6. In January 2019, the DfE published its Teacher Recruitment and Retention Strategy. The DfE acknowledged in this document that factors in respect of growing pupil numbers, the increasing uncompetitiveness of teachers' pay in comparison with other graduate professions and declining levels of retention would need to be addressed to improve the current state of teacher supply.
7. However, the NASUWT is clear that the DfE's analysis underplays the scale and severity of the teacher recruitment and retention crisis significantly. While some of the proposals set out in the strategy may help to secure marginal improvements, the fundamental drivers of the crisis, including teachers' pay and their opportunities to achieve pay progression, remain substantially unaddressed.
8. These concerns have been echoed in the report of the investigation undertaken by the National Audit Office (NAO) into these matters. The NAO's report on teacher supply makes clear that the extent of teacher recruitment and retention problems confronting the system are currently reaching unsustainable levels and that the DfE has no coherent plan for addressing the teacher supply crisis, which can only have a detrimental impact on the ability of Jersey to recruit teachers from England.
9. The most recent data from the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) End of Cycle Analysis Report confirms that approximately 45,410 people applied for an initial teacher training place through the UCAS Teacher Training (UTT) application scheme in 2018.
10. This quantity of applicants represents a decline on the equivalent figure for 2017 and confirms a 16% fall in the number of applicants since 2014. Between 2010, when 67,289 applicants entered the formal initial teacher training (ITT) recruitment process, and 2018, the number of applicants has fallen by 32%. This period coincides with the imposition of significant pay freezes and restraints on the teaching profession.

11. Interim data from UCAS for the 2018/19 UTT application round indicates that mid-phase applications for ITT remain at historically low levels. By 16 September 2019, 116,270 individual applications had been made through the UCAS UTT process. At the equivalent stage of the 2014 cycle, 153,850 applications had been made, a decline of 24%.
12. It remains important to recognise that the significant fall in the number of applicants for courses of ITT since 2010 contrasts starkly with experience during previous periods of economic contraction or constrained growth, which were strongly correlated with increases in applications for such courses.
13. The most recent DfE data for the number of new entrants who have started, or expect to start, an ITT programme confirm that the number of new entrants into training programmes only reached 88% of the central target set for 2017/18, a substantial decline from the 94% of target figure achieved in 2016/17. Official data show that overall teacher recruitment was above target in each year from 2006/07 to 2011/12 but has been below target in each subsequent year. In this context, it is essential to recognise legitimate concerns that the targets based on the DfE's Teacher Supply Model may significantly underestimate the number of teachers required to sustain adequate levels of workforce supply.
14. In light of this evidence, it is clear that problems with recruitment into teaching are intensifying and creating significant barriers to ensuring adequacy of teacher supply, underlining the status of the current teacher supply position as a crisis.
15. Additionally, as the number of teachers decreases, the number of pupils, both in the UK and Jersey, is increasing. In England alone, DfE data confirm that the state-funded school sector will continue to experience significant and sustained increases in pupil numbers over the next decade. In the secondary sector, the overall population is projected to reach 3,267,000 in 2027, 14.7% higher than the current secondary cohort.
16. The substantial number of additional teachers required, combined with the shrinking pool of available staff, will make it increasingly difficult for Jersey to attract high-quality teachers. Jersey itself will also need additional numbers of teachers, given that primary pupil numbers have been rising steadily since 2011, with a 7.75% increase, which will feed through into secondary schools in the coming years.

17. There is continuing evidence that the 11-16 high schools in Jersey are having some difficultly in recruiting teachers, where the uncompetitiveness of teacher salaries forms a double whammy' with limited career progression opportunities, given that these schools have no sixth-form and very low numbers of able pupils due to Jersey's selective education system.
18. Further evidence suggests that, for the first time, UK recruits are being sought for primary teacher positions. Previously, Jersey has been self-sufficient in the primary phase.

Pay, cost of living and salaries in other comparable occupations

19. Cost of living pressures in Jersey are significant. In addition to the erosion of teachers' pay through inflation, other pressures are more acute on Jersey compared to other jurisdictions.
20. The mix-adjusted average house price in Jersey is around £483,000, nearly £30,000 higher than the corresponding period in 2016,  and considerably higher than the UK, which is around £226,000. It is also substantially higher than any region of the UK.
21. It should be noted that the average house price in Jersey has now equalled that of London.
22. The average price of a three-bedroomed house (i.e. a normal family dwelling) in Jersey stood at £573,000 in Q4 2017 – a substantial rise of £13,000 from Q3 2017 alone.
23. The price of a three-bedroomed house in Jersey is almost 11 times the salary of a teacher on spine point U5, whereas the average value of a one bedroomed flat, being £235,000, is 6.8 times the salary of a newly qualified teacher. For comparison, in 2016 this ratio stood at 5.5.

24. These high ratios make it exceedingly difficult for newly qualified teachers likely saddled with student debt and/or moving from the UK to take up a teaching post in Jersey to buy property, and thus act as major disincentives for teachers looking to work on the Island.
25. For comparison, in 2005 these ratios stood at 8.8 times and 3.9 times; which, although still high, is considerably less than the current situation, particularly for teachers on the lower end of the salary scale. This demonstrates how teachers' salaries have failed to keep pace with house prices over the last decade.
26. Nevertheless, the commitment given by the SEB to the NASUWT in the recent pay settlement that extension of key worker housing eligibility to teachers would be explored was welcome.
27. A similar picture also exists for essential commodities. A study in 201414 and reported in the Jersey Evening Post found that basic foodstuffs cost 32% more in Jersey than the UK, and when taxes and duties are stripped out, the actual cost is 50% higher. Given that Jersey inflation has been running at a slightly higher level than UK inflation since 2014, it is likely that this differential has increased.
28. Other essential commodities are also more expensive in Jersey than the UK. Electricity is around 16% more expensive per kilowatt-hour (kWh). Gas is considerably more expensive. As of 2018, the cheapest tariff offered by Jersey Gas is 12.1442p per kWh, whereas there are many UK tariffs charging less than 3p per kWh. This represents a huge Jersey premium of more than 300%.
29. Although teachers' pay rates are higher than the equivalent reference point in the UK, the cost of basic commodities means that the purchasing power of Jersey teachers is actually considerably less than their colleagues in the UK, again acting as a significant disincentive to teachers looking to relocate.

30. Graduates are currently in high demand across the UK for professions other than teaching. The NASUWT draws to the Panel's attention the intensification of competition for graduates in the UK. High Fliers Research carries out an annual survey of graduate labour market trends, which includes researching employers' intentions in graduate recruitment. Its research reveals that:

• the number of graduates hired by the UK's top 100 graduate employers increased by 1.6%;

• 800 graduate positions remained unfilled this year because graduates turned down positions which they had previously accepted;

• only eight of the UK's leading employers have opted to reduce their graduate recruitment targets for 2017 because of the uncertainty following the Brexit vote.

31. This significant rise in graduate vacancies for 2017 takes recruitment well beyond the pre-recession peak in the graduate job market in 2007, to its highest-ever level.
32. The evidence presented in the High Fliers Research shows that starting salaries at the UK's leading graduate employers stood at a median of £30,000 in 2017. Whilst this is less than the current starting salary of teachers in Jersey, it should be noted that the High Fliers Research has identified that at least a sixth of places on the top graduate programmes now provide starting salaries of more than £40,000 and 13 of the country's best-known graduate employers are paying salaries of at least £45,000 in2017, which is in excess of the starting salary for teachers.
33. In addition, the median starting salary for investment banks is now £47,000 and for law firms £43,000, the latter showing a £2,000 rise between 2016 and 2017.
34. For comparison, Aldi pays graduates training to become area managers a first-year salary of £42,000, a considerable premium over the starting salary of Jersey teachers.

35. The above figures relate to the UK and not Jersey. As the Jersey graduate market is going to be heavily skewed towards the financial services industry, it is likely that the median salary for graduates in Jersey is going to be considerably higher than that in the UK.
36. The High Fliers Research found the median starting salary in investment banks was £47,000, whilst for banking as a whole this figure stood at £32,500, although again it should be noted that these are UK figures, not Jersey figures. Median figures for Jersey do not exist, but it is reasonable to assume they will be higher than that of the UK.
37. Employment in Jersey's financial services sector increased by 250 in the year to June 2017, with total employment now higher than at any point since December 2008. Employment in financial institutions accounts for 22% of all FTE employment in Jersey, and the starting salaries greatly exceed that of teachers.
38. Given all the evidence above, there exist powerful disincentives for Jersey- born graduates to return to the island to teach, and for non-native graduates and teachers to come to Jersey.
39. In the case of Jersey-born graduates, this constitutes a considerable brain drain' off the island. In 2016, 50% of Jersey-born graduates did not return within ten years of graduating, up from 40% in 2012.21/22 For demographic, population control and economic reasons, it is better for Jersey-born graduates to return, yet teachers' pay is simply not competitive enough to attract them back into teaching. Graduates who do return find that much more lucrative salaries exist in other sectors; therefore, teachers from the UK must be recruited. Again, teachers' pay is simply not competitive with that of the UK, despite being superficially higher for all the reasons previously stated.
40. On pay more broadly, while the NASUWT was able to secure an acceptable pay settlement with the SEB during the last round of pay negotiations, it is clear that salaries of teachers in Jersey have suffered from significant erosion in the recent past.

41. An analysis of the loss in real terms of gross pay for teachers shows losses of thousands of pounds compared to what teachers would have earned had their pay kept pace with inflation.
42. Teachers have been subjected to a pay freeze in 2009 and 2012, followed by a 1% consolidated increase in 2013. The 4% increase in 2014 was then followed by another effective freeze in 2015, with a derisory 1% applied in. An uplift of 2% in respect of 2017 was recently imposed.
43. There has been an increase in inflation as measured by the RPI to date of 17% between 2008 and 2017.
44. These factors have a significant cumulative impact on teachers' pay over time. Analysis by the NASUWT shows, for example, that for a teacher paid on U5 of the pay spine, the failure of their pay to keep pace with inflation means that they have suffered a cumulative pay shortfall of over £20,000 between 2008 and 2018. Teachers' pay has been eroded significantly since 2008. Taking into account the September 2017 RPI figure, since 2008 teachers' pay has reduced by 8% in real terms.
45. It is, therefore, clear that urgent action is required to address pay-related barriers to sufficient teacher supply.

Workload, teacher wellbeing and pupil behaviour

46. Evidence from other jurisdictions confirms that workload, teacher wellbeing and pupil behaviour are significant contributors to rates of wastage from teaching for reasons other than retirement and to deterring graduates from entering the profession. Feedback from teachers in Jersey confirms that they attach similar importance to these issues in terms of their relationship with securing sufficient teacher supply.
47. The Jersey Teachers' Survey provides a valuable insight into the opinions of teachers and school leaders on key issues affecting the workforce and the pupils they teach. It provides critical intelligence to the Children, Young People, Education and Skills Department to guide the development of policy and to ensure that Jersey's teachers are respected, valued and well-placed to support the learning of children and young people.

48. The most recent Survey confirms that teachers are dedicated public servants, committed to providing high-quality learning experiences for all pupils. The continued increase in standards of achievement across the Island is a testament to their diligence and professionalism.
49. However, the Survey's findings on teachers' health and wellbeing and their workload are especially concerning and show that more needs to be done to give staff in schools the working environment they need and deserve. Particularly troubling is the high proportion of teachers reporting poor pupil behaviour and incidents of verbal abuse. Addressing these issues must remain an urgent priority for the Department.
50. Tackling these concerns requires practical and meaningful action and it is important to recognise the positive steps that the Department has taken to date. In particular, the guidance published by the Department on marking and planning, and the further work being taken forward on data and assessment, are welcome. The guidance shows that there is absolutely no excuse for these activities to generate excessive burdens on staff as the best educational approaches are also those that manage workload most effectively. It is important for all concerned to ensure that the words in the guidance become a reality in the classroom.
51. In other areas, the NASUWT has been encouraged by steps the Department has taken to embed workload and wellbeing considerations into the development of policy. This was particularly evident during the development of the Jersey Review Framework. The Department was clear from the outset that while the process of review should be challenging, it should never be overly time-consuming or cause unnecessary anxiety to school staff, or result in them facing excessive and unnecessary workload burdens.
52. In their engagement on the development of the framework, both the NASUWT and the Department acknowledged that in other jurisdictions, particularly in England, misconceptions about inspections had led to schools introducing inappropriate practices on the basis that inspectors would expect to see such practices in place. A significant amount of work had to be undertaken to address the myths that had become associated with inspection in England.

53. The development of the Review Framework was characterised by a clear determination to ensure that these issues did not become established in Jersey. Reviews have been designed to ensure that they are focused on "what works". They do not look for particular lesson structures, lengthy policy documents or types of marking schemes. They are focused on how pupils are learning rather than what the teacher is doing. Schools are realising that there are no advantages to be gained by seeking to "game" the process by introducing policies and procedures solely for the purpose of "getting through" the Review.
54. More broadly, it is welcome that the ongoing Jersey Reform Programme is based on the unequivocal understanding that tackling workload, promoting teacher wellbeing, securing good discipline and order in schools and raising standards of educational achievement are all mutually inclusive goals that should be at the heart of workforce development policy.
55. There is, however, no room for complacency in these respects. All stakeholders recognise that there is much more to do to ensure that workload, wellbeing and pupil behaviour issues support rather than detract from securing sufficient levels of teacher supply in future.

NASUWT Jersey Association