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STATES OF JERSEY
Corporate Services Scrutiny Panel Population and Migration Review
FRIDAY, 23rd MARCH 2012
Panel:
Senator S.C. Ferguson (Chairman)
Deputy J.G. Reed of St. Ouen (Vice Chairman) Connétable D.J. Murphy of Grouville
Deputy R.J. Rondel of St. Helier
Deputy S. Power of St. Brelade
Witnesses:
The Chief Minister
Assistant Chief Minister Director of the Population Office
Also Present:
Mr. T. Oldham , Scrutiny Officer
[14:01]
Deputy J.G. Reed of St. Ouen (Vice Chairman):
While you are just getting yourselves settled I would, first of all, like to welcome both the Chief Minister and members of the public to this hearing of the Corporate Services Scrutiny Panel, Population and Migration public hearing. If I could draw everyone's attention to the code of behaviour for members of the public displayed on the wall and, in particular, to the following: all electronic devices, including mobile phones, should be switched to silent. The taking of visual images or audio recordings by the public is not permitted. If you wish to eat and drink, please leave the room and I also ask that members of the public do not interfere in the proceedings and as soon as the hearing is closed, please leave quietly. Members and witnesses may wish to make themselves available afterwards but any communication should take place outside of the building. Finally, for the sake of the witnesses, may I confirm that you have read and understood the witness statement of it in front of you?
The Chief Minister: Yes, thank you.
Assistant Chief Minister: Yes.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Chief Minister, just to be clear, although the public hearing is scheduled to last for 2 hours, I believe you are required to leave at 3.30 p.m.
The Chief Minister:
I am, unfortunately, yes.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Is it your intention that your Assistant Minister will remain?
The Chief Minister:
He is happy to remain, should you so wish.
The Deputy of St. Ouen : Thank you very much.
The Chief Minister:
It depends on whether we have answered your questions succinctly or not, I suppose, does it?
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Further, well just for the sake of clarity, although the Chairman of the panel is here, as I have been leading for the most part on this particular review I will be chairing today's meeting. Thank you. Right, maybe Senator Ferguson would like to ...
Senator S.C. Ferguson: Introductions?
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Sorry, yes, for the recorder and the people that are going to be undertaking the transcripts, could we quickly go around the table, introduce ourselves and state our position?
Deputy S. Power of St. Brelade :
Yes, for the record I am Deputy Sean Power of St. Brelade .
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
I am Deputy James Reed, Vice Chairman of the panel.
Senator S.C. Ferguson: Senator Sarah Ferguson.
Deputy R.J. Rondel of St. Helier : Deputy Richard Rondel, St. Helier .
Connétable D.J. Murphy of Grouville : Constable Dan Murphy, Grouville .
Assistant Chief Minister:
Senator Paul Routier, responsible for the Migration Advisory Group.
The Chief Minister: I am Ian Gorst .
Director of the Population Office:
Paul Bradbury, Director of Corporate Policy.
The Deputy of St. Ouen : Right, Senator Ferguson.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
Right, at the moment we are in the process of transition from the Migration Advisory Group to the Migration Advisory Panel. How are you dealing with this and how do you view the operation of it going forward?
The Chief Minister:
I am not sure that transition is a word that I would use but perhaps Paul is better suited to deal with that. In effect, the old laws continue to operate with responsibilities for Economic Development around R.U.D.L (Regulation of Undertakings and Development Law), Housing for housing and then the day that the new law comes into force it will move across and the responsibilities obviously there will change and the Migration Advisory Group, which now is helping to bring in the law and to help with the decisions, will then become the decision-making body, the new panel. But I do not know if you want to talk about the actual practicalities and how you are trying to administer the laws in line with what the new law will be.
Assistant Chief Minister:
Yes, sure, certainly. Firstly, I will just point out that the new body will be under the control of the Work and Housing Advisory Panel - that is what it will be called - and it is legally based. It is in the legislation and so it is something that is there and a matter of law and the structure of it is outlined in the new law. With regards to how we are operating now during this transition period is we do get applications from businesses that are wanting to establish and wanting to employ people and we are currently, because of the amount of unemployment that is in the Island and the number of people who are looking for work, being very tight on allowing non-local people to be employed in new businesses; it has to have a very high economic value for that to happen. We do have to make judgments; the judgments that we are making are not around. We do not want a situation to be that the Island is closed for business because the Island is open for business; I make that very clear. But we do make valid judgments on the economic benefits and the social benefits of somebody coming to this Island and that is how we are operating. But, I have to say, it is tighter now than what it has been in the past.
Senator S.C. Ferguson: Thank you.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Can you just inform us who will be the member of the Work and Housing Advisory Panel?
Assistant Chief Minister:
Yes, it will be the Assistant Chief Minister, the Minister for Economic Development and also the Minister for Housing. Those are legally constituted within the legislation. Then there is the possibility for other Ministers, on an ad hoc basis, to work on the panel, for instance, the Minister for Social Security, which is a very vital person to have involved.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
This group will advise the Chief Minister, I presume?
Assistant Chief Minister: Yes.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Ultimately, the Chief Minister will be responsible for the overall management of the 2 laws.
Assistant Chief Minister:
Yes, the Control of Housing and Work Law and the Names and Address Register is what you are referring to, is it?
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Yes, you have just said that we are going to have 2 new laws, we have got an Advisory Group; the Advisory Group has got to report to somebody and we know that currently the Population Office's position within the Chief Minister's Department.
Assistant Chief Minister: Yes.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
What I would like it to be made clear is who is responsible and who is going to be held to account for delivering the population policy decisions made by the States?
Assistant Chief Minister:
My understanding is the Chief Minister will delegate it to the Assistant Chief Minister and that is where the responsibility will lie.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
So, if the Chief Minister ... sorry, maybe I will ask the Chief Minister directly; it is suggested that you are going to delegate responsibility to your Assistant Chief Minister. In reality, what ability will they have to ensure that the policies, as agreed by the States, are implemented?
The Chief Minister:
That will be exactly the policy to which they will work. That is what they will have to do. That is how they will operate the law in line with the policy. I imagine that, as we sit here today, I intend to delegate the responsibility for those issues to the Assistant Chief Minister.
The Deputy of St. Ouen : What power will they have?
The Chief Minister:
They will have the powers that are given to them under the law.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Are you suggesting that the Assistant Minister, through delegated powers that you will confer upon him, will have the same powers as, for arguments sake, the Minister for Housing may have?
The Chief Minister:
It will be the group that comes to the decision but, ultimately, the responsibility for the decision will lie with the Chief Minister's Department; either the Chief Minister or the Assistant Chief Minister, so in this instance it will be the Assistant Chief Minister. However, as you know, when a Minister delegates responsibilities to carry out a function to an Assistant Minister, they are carrying out that function on behalf of that Minister. If an Assistant Minister ... I would say I cannot imagine that it would happen in this instance but when a decision is made that perhaps is inappropriate then ultimately it is the Minister and the Assistant Minister who would take responsibility.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Right, so ultimately what we are saying is that it is the Chief Minister that will be ultimately responsible and accountable for ensuring that these laws are implemented properly and appropriately and meet the policies that are set by the States.
The Chief Minister:
Indeed, as with any responsibility under any Minister, whether it is delegated or not.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
Chief Minister, do you not think it would be advisable to have the Minister for Social Security as a permanent member of the Work and Housing Panel, rather than just delegated from time to time?
The Chief Minister:
Well, currently the Assistant Minister for Social Security attends the meetings. I cannot imagine that there will be a time when either that Assistant Minister does not attend or the Minister for Social Security does not attend. You will probably be aware from a previous debate about where the Population Office or responsibility was going to lie and I think that it is very important that the social elements of this policy are understood and the implications, thereof, are considered. That is why in that vote I voted for it to sit with Social Security. The States agreed with what was the proposal at the time and which was that it remained with the Chief Minister. But I am very supportive of the continued role of Social Security in those decisions.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
Yes, but should they not be, under the law, a permanent member of that?
The Chief Minister:
The law is as the law was approved by States Assembly.
Assistant Chief Minister:
Yes, if I just sort of develop on that because the reason that the Minister for Housing and the Minister for Economic Development were put in the legislation, along with the Chief Minister, was because that those 2 Ministers currently administer the laws
that exist at the present time. They were right, there was some debate about having the Minister for Social Security in the legislation but in practice the Minister for Social Security, I would expect and hope, would take full part in those discussions because it is important that the Minister for Social Security does have that input.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Moving on to the census results, please, Deputy Rondel?
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
Yes, thank you. Chief Minister, what was your reaction to the latest census results and the fact that the population levels were much higher than the figures projected in the last Strategic Plan?
The Chief Minister:
I think I am on record as saying they were slightly higher than I expected them to be.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
What then was your most disconcerting result of the whole census we have seen to date?
The Chief Minister:
I do not think there is any element of the census which I find disconcerting. The census is one of those things that factually tells us how many people are in our community. I suppose there were some areas that I wondered about and that was the number of people in our community perhaps who are not in work and yet are not receiving benefits and this question about how are they supporting themselves and what implications are there for us, as a Government, arising out of those sorts of statistics rather than being disconcerted? I mean a census gives us a whole host of information and then it is for us to go away and develop policies and try and understand the implications for us as a Government.
[14:15]
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
Were you surprised at the figure?
The Chief Minister: Which figure?
Deputy R.J. Rondel: 97,857.
The Chief Minister:
I suppose I am the sort of person that you give me the information and that is the information I go away and deal with it. It was, as I said, higher than I personally thought that it might be.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
As the Minister now responsible, individual shall I say, for the Chief Minister's Department, what has your department's reaction been to the news that we are very close to the overall target that was set by the States back in 2009 that your department has been responsible to deliver?
The Chief Minister:
I am not really sure what question you are asking me there because if you are saying that I am responsible for the department and you are asking me what my view is, then ...
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
No, I am asking, what has been the view that your department officers have conveyed to you, since you took office, over the results contained in the census figure and the implications on future policy?
The Chief Minister:
I am not sure that there is a departmental view in the respect that you might be trying to indicate. Obviously, the Assistant Chief Minister is at the coalface, as it were, of dealing with licences and job opportunities and housing issues across the community. There is more work that needs to be done to understand exactly how the figure that the Statistics Department had produced from their annual updates to the figure that was in the census, which I think you have spoken to Duncan and he is doing work on that to understand what happened there. There is also work that, I think, Paul is doing to look at annualising the figures and that will arise from those figures that Duncan is going to do. Although it might appear, on the surface, that perhaps migration has been out of kilter with the policy, and I suspect that it has but that is only a feeling, there is extra work that needs to be undertaken to say, one way or the other but Paul might explain how that worked.
Director of the Population Office:
Just to add, as the Chief Minister says and he will probably even explain it to you, the head of the Statistics Unit is analysing the data with more depth. One of the things he is going to produce is net annualised immigration figures, so, at the moment, we do not know the annual figures and therefore we do not know precisely how we have performed against the 2009 Strategic Plan targets. My other thought coming out of the census results is it stresses the importance of the new law; it stresses the importance of having a population register on an ongoing basis.
Senator S.C. Ferguson
Out of the various analyses that you have seen, what is the most surprising result that you have seen? What is it that has made you sort of think, "Oh, no, no, gosh, I did not know that was happening"?
Director of the Population Office:
I would be in exactly the same place as the Chief Minister; it is slightly higher than I perhaps personally thought it might be.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
I would just like to pick up on that because "slightly higher" is that the reality is that the census is telling that we have roughly had an increase of about 1,000 people per year for the last 10 years. We have got a policy in place that accepts that ...
The Chief Minister:
It is not telling us that there is not ...
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Chief Minister, I will let you have your ... you can answer this question when I have finished it, but the reality is that the agreement that the States reached was that approximately 325 people would be accommodated within the general population increases with a maximum of 100,000 people. We are within, even based on the current census, a figure of about 2,000 within that overall limit. I would just like to point you to a comment that you made earlier, which is a press release that was issued on Wednesday, 2nd June 2010, by, as it happens, the Statistics Department on Jersey's residential population based on 2009, and it is clear that the overall increases in population are identified on the table that is concluded in the front. Though to suggest that you were not surprised leaves me to believe one of 2 things: one, that you never believed that your department could not manage and maintain a population within the figures agreed by the States or indeed that you were well aware of the problem and were quite happy to manage within the figures that were known.
The Chief Minister:
I would suggest it does not suggest either of those 2 things because you cannot take a number at one point in time and take a number at a second point in time and then believe that you have got from one point to the next in a uniform manner, which is exactly why we have asked the Statistics Department to go away and produce these annualised figures and to produce a reconciliation between the difference in the number that they released and the number that was in the census, which is why I have said that the number was higher than I was expecting.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Can I just draw your attention, Chief Minister, to the document I have in front of me and you say that you are waiting for annualised figures.
The Chief Minister: Yes.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Would you confirm that in that table that they provide annualised figures from the period 2000 to, in this case, 2009?
The Chief Minister:
Does it not say "estimates"?
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
What does this say? You have "actual", I believe.
The Chief Minister:
It is very difficult if you are now trying to ask me to answer about a press release which was issued in 2010 and now I am going to have to read it and tell you what I think about it, I mean unless, of course, all is ...
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
What I am saying is that this information ... and I am not suggesting, Chief Minister, that you are directly responsible for this; we understand you have just taken the responsibility for the position. However, your department is and has been responsible for the Population Office and managing population levels for a period of time and it is only right that your department properly advises you on what has been going on and the difficulties around the management of population and the impact of the recently current figures.
The Chief Minister:
You are asking me about a press ...
Senator S.C. Ferguson: I think your ...
The Chief Minister:
Let me answer the question; you are asking me about a press release which was issued in 2010 with regard to resident population in 2009. You have just put it in front of me now and asked me to give you an interpretation of it. It, from what I can read here, says that it is an estimate, with all that that means and it was based on the March 2001 census. I have already said to you that there was a difference between the estimates that the Statistics Department issued and the result of the census this year and they have gone away to do a reconciliation between them.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
I am not asking you to determine or ...
The Chief Minister:
Then, at which point, we will be able, hopefully, to answer your question more fully.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Chief Minister, I am not asking you to describe or comment on the paper, all I am saying is, would you confirm ...
The Chief Minister:
You were because you just asked me to.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
I have just asked you to confirm, and maybe your officer can help you with this, whether the figures in the column in that table ...
The Chief Minister:
I do not need my officer ...
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
... identify and annualise the figures between 2001 and 2009 and they are not estimates, they are actual.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
Since we have only just produced that, perhaps we could leave it for the Chief Minister to take it and come back with it ...
The Chief Minister:
No, I am quite satisfied with my answer; it quite clearly says: "Table 1, estimates, Jersey's resident population." I cannot make it any clearer.
Director of the Population Office:
Chief Minister, I may need not to comment at all but I would say exactly the same; it is an estimate based on the 2001 census, it is not actual figures.
The Chief Minister:
Would you like that back, Chairman?
The Deputy of St. Ouen : Thank you.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
Chief Minister, what impact will the new information have on the long term projections and current inward migration proposals, i.e. the full census results?
The Chief Minister:
What impact will it have on ...?
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
The new long-term projections for growth population?
The Chief Minister:
What happens, obviously, is the census information is fed into the Jersey population model by the Statistics Department and then, as I have already committed and commissioned the Strategic Plan that wants that information and has been populated, once the reconciliation, that the Vice Chairman is rightly concerned about, has been produced then the Council of Ministers, together with the States Assembly, will come forward with a long term ... well, I say long term, it needs to be 3 or 4 years, population and migration strategy or number that the panel will need to work to and deliver.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
Do you feel a figure will be produced and how do you produce that figure?
The Chief Minister:
It is difficult to say. I have, as I am sure Members will know, said that I personally feel that I would like to see population constrained to under 100,000 but it will not just be my decision, it will be a decision of the States Assembly.
The Connétable of Grouville :
Can I ...? How are you going to balance the growth that we need with the constraints on population? It is going to be a very difficult balancing act, is it not?
The Chief Minister:
It absolutely is and I have been quite clear about that ever since we started talking about the census figures. The challenge that I am faced with and the Council of Ministers are faced with and the decisions that we are required to make are not easy. When we start talking about migration and population and what appropriate levels might be or how we are going to control it, they are extremely difficult and necessarily balanced decisions that needs to be arrived at. I have talked about, and I know that Migration Advisory Group are committed to this and I know that the Council of Ministers are committed to this, and that is fitting jobs in our economy for the people who are currently here. This is a challenge we are going to face with the fulfilment sector, it is why we are working with the hospitality industry, it is why we have worked with Jersey telecoms because jobs are being created; there are jobs in our economy which, perhaps historically, have required levels of inward migration. The challenge is for us to be able to equip the people who are already in our community to undertake those jobs and to work with businesses, work together with
businesses, so that they can take those jobs up; it is a theory called job substitution, in effect. But we are absolutely committed to it because on the other hand we know that we do need inward investment, we do need to bring in people who are going to create jobs as well and we know that we do need a growing economy. It is a very difficult balance but it is a challenge that we have got to rise to and we have got to try and meet.
The Connétable of Grouville :
Let us assume that we have a company coming here with a brand new type of employment situation, say on the lines of C.P.A. (Computer Patent Annuities) or something like that.
The Chief Minister: Yes.
The Connétable of Grouville :
And they say to you: "Right, okay, look we will mop up 400 of your unemployed in this but we want 100 (j) cats to go with it."
The Chief Minister: Yes.
The Connétable of Grouville :
That is going to be the problem, is it not?
The Chief Minister:
That is part of the issue that I am talking about and those decisions are very difficult. But we have a challenge and we have got to consider them and make them because we have got, as you do not need me to remind you, unprecedented levels of unemployment.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
Which is why, Chief Minister, I asked whether it is a danger to put a figure of under 100,000 when we are realistically probably very close to that now because the census was over a year ago, plus you have got natural growth year on year, 150 households, so, you are looking in 4 years' time to keep that under 100,000. Do you not feel it is unrealistic if you have got to allow for some growth as well?
The Chief Minister:
I have never shied away from making difficult decisions and I recognise that this is a difficult area.
[14:30]
But we will all come to it with personal opinions and outcomes that we would like to see, which is why I have been talking for the last 5 months about the challenges of job substitution because unless we do that we cannot control the overall level of our population.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
But did you not agree it would be dangerous to put a figure of say under 100,000 and then come 4 years' time it is above that, the same situation as this census shows?
The Chief Minister:
We have got to remember that the last Council of Ministers and the population policy which was in the previous Strategic Plan, which the States Assembly agreed, was predicated on keeping population levels under 100,000.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
It has been put to us during the hearings that we have been having that perhaps that it is ...
The Chief Minister:
Do feel free to chip in whenever you like. [Laughter]
Assistant Chief Minister: You are doing so well.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
That it is unrealistic to put a figure in. The Chamber of Commerce mentioned housing availability. Our adviser said job availability, what would be your particular reaction to this?
The Chief Minister:
I understand those sentiments and I understand the difficulty of the decision that we are going to have to make going forward next year in regard to the longer term population policy is going to be, and I think it is fair to say that until that population model has been populated we will not be able to make informed choices around that. I am simply saying it has been the position which I have currently come to adopt.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
Do you agree that it is unrealistic to put a total on this, a target?
The Chief Minister:
Well it depends what we mean by target because I go back to the point I just made. I recognise it is extremely difficult and we would only want to do it having carefully considered it but I have said it in the past, I was not the only candidate standing for election that felt that position was appropriate, and now I have forgotten what I was going to say to the rest of that point.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
I just wanted a simple answer, do you think perhaps putting a target on it is somewhat unrealistic?
The Chief Minister:
Well I go back to the point I made earlier about the previous Strategic Plan's population policy was based on the population not rising above 100,000 so was that - what was the word you used - was that realistic or not?
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
Do you raise a false expectation if you put a target on it which you cannot possibly control, you cannot possibly reach because you have no controls?
The Chief Minister:
Well I would argue that we have controls but will have better controls when we get the new pieces of legislation in.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
How are you going to persuade the public that what you have just said is correct, you have controlled the population when the public already previously indicated their reluctance to see populations increase over and above the levels that were set and agreed by the States in 2009?
The Chief Minister:
I am not going to even try and look at the past, the population level is now what it is. Mechanisms were in place but the new law will give us more control than we have ever had before, and that is absolutely right and proper, and I believe that with a new law we will be able to control it in the way that we want to.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Control is one thing, Chief Minister, but implementation and use of control is another. Surely the reality is that the controls that we have had in place which we suggested that could be used to manage and maintain population levels as agreed by the States have not been properly implemented or used to manage the population?
Assistant Chief Minister:
Shall I answer that because I have been involved for the last 3 years as the previous assistant to the Chief Minister and had responsibility for the Migration Advisory Group and was joined by obviously Sean over there helping to make those decisions. The way we have been making the decisions in the last 3 years has been based on the information that we have had supplied. The Statistics Unit were issuing the information and we were looking at that and obviously that was the information we had so we were working with that information in mind. So whenever a business would come to us for an application we would make a judgment on whether the business was the right sort of business for the Island, whether it was going to be economically advantageous for the Island, whether it was going to have any social impact on the Island. We took everything into consideration, whether it be the whole spectrum of the resources of the Island and we made those judgments at that time on the information that was available to us. The new legislation is a lot, lot stronger. We will have a lot more information. The information we will have because of the Names and Address Register, the Population Register and the cross-fertilisation of the information between departments is going to help us to make a lot better decisions. Well whether the decision will be better, we will have more information to make the decision.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
I am a bit confused by this because you were working on the premise of a population model which, as we have discussed with the head of the Statistics Unit, is flawed, the model was not accurate. We have got the Minister for Housing who said that he was not surprised by the Senator's figures, this was quite expected, so how come we are running so high when the group has been meeting and you have been discussing it? I am sorry, I am a bit confused.
Assistant Chief Minister:
I cannot comment on what other Ministers have said but certainly my view has been we have been working towards the information we have had available to us to make the decisions. I do not know if Paul wants to add anything?
Director of the Population Office:
No, I do not have anything to add to what I said before. The new law of bringing a Population Register, that is essential. If you set a target of population it helps tremendously to have an ongoing record of what that population is based on accurate data rather than assumptions or 10 year censuses.
The Connétable of Grouville :
Could I just ask a question? It is quite obvious that the previous model did not work, it was not efficient, would you agree with that?
Director of the Population Office:
It certainly did not have the frequency and accuracy of data in terms of the population that we would like, yes.
The Connétable of Grouville :
Well it was basically wrong, was it not, because it came out at the end of the day it was wrong, everything was wrong about it. Is it because you said that you collected the information you had, should you have asked for more information? Should you have set up further information sources in order to assist you with that? Were the sources coming into you enough? I mean, I understand there was not really a great deal of co-operation between Social Security and the Population Office at that time, is that correct as well?
Assistant Chief Minister:
Not at all, if anything I think that the Social Security Department were very proactive in assisting us in helping us to make the decisions. Their concern - which is probably even more so now - is the number of people that they have registered as being unemployed and we needed to work with them. For them to help us make decisions, if they were aware that somebody who had the skills on their books, that somebody was coming to us to ask for permission to have someone of the same sort of skills, they were there to help us make the decision ...
The Connétable of Grouville : Not to count the population.
Assistant Chief Minister:
Not to count the population, no, it was not anything about counting the population, it was about individual ...
The Connétable of Grouville :
No, well that is what I am saying, this is where we have come out making a big mistake because it might surprise you that our adviser told us that in fact if you declare an unemployed figure of say 1,500 the actual figure is going to be closer to 3,000.
The Chief Minister:
But we have always known that, every time we have talked about unemployment I have always consciously tried to talk about the I.L.O. (International Labour Organisation) figure as well. But because it is quite a technical thing it is not always a message that people have wanted to necessarily hear or understand but that is right, so the last I.L.O. figure was 4.7 per cent equating to about 2,600. We only do the I.L.O. figure I think every year, as we have seen registered unemployment increase, therefore, if we were to do an I.L.O. calculation now - and we cannot because of the underlying data that you need - there is no doubt that you would see that figure rising as well.
The Connétable of Grouville :
Okay, I am just trying to ascertain really that perhaps the Population Office is in the wrong place, perhaps the Population Office should be at Social Security.
Director of the Population Office:
Just one minor point in terms of the data, the estimates that we looked at before were primarily based upon records from Education, from Health and from the Population Office. The Statistics Unit did look at a range of data sources from Social Security and chose and they are better to explain as to why not to use that in their population assumptions. So it certainly was looked at, the Social Security data.
The Connétable of Grouville : But it was not a key factor?
Director of the Population Office:
I am not aware that it was a key factor.
The Connétable of Grouville :
Just help us if you can, there was no basis for them to be told to do certain things?
Director of the Population Office:
The Statistics Unit looked at Social Security as a source of data to support their population modelling and chose not to use the Social Security data.
The Connétable of Grouville : Yes, that is puzzling.
The Chief Minister:
Well I am not sure that it is puzzling when you think about what the Social Security data is because there is all sorts of records, some are not live, some are younger people, so trying to get an overall picture of population levels from the Social Security data as it was then probably would not necessarily have been that helpful. But the input of Social Security into understanding how we are going to issue licences and deal with job substitutions, that is absolutely critical.
Deputy S. Power:
My colleagues are doing so well, Chief Minister, I am beginning to enjoy the ...
The Chief Minister:
I am getting the feeling they do not really need me either.
Deputy S. Power:
So if I am going to ask a question I will not direct it at you, Chief Minister, I will direct it to the 3 of you and any one of you can choose. I want to get back to the phrase "long-term projections" for the future, population modelling, and there has been some reference that some population modelling is going to be done as a result of the census figures. Are we going to see a trend projection which may be likely to say that because of what has happened in the recent past we are going to project a population increase of approximately 7,000 to 8,000 over the next 5 to 10 years; so the question is (a) are we going to see a trend projection; and (b) how do you define long term, is that likely to be 5 years or longer than 5 years?
Director of the Population Office:
I mean, I think it is early days in terms of the population model but I would certainly expect to see a trend projection, if that is what you want to call it, based upon what has happened over the last 10 year and equally it would be able to give us sensitivities in terms of if you target was 150,000 what would it be in, and I would expect it not to be over 5 but over 20 or 30 years.
Deputy S. Power:
Given then that we may, as you are indicating, see a trend projection would you think it then unreasonable that we are likely to see projections in the order of so many thousand more over the next 10 years?
Director of the Population Office:
I cannot comment on what that model would say.
Deputy S. Power:
Well if the trend is based on what has happened?
Director of the Population Office:
I really cannot comment on what the model will say.
Deputy S. Power:
The sudden vacuum of population to inward migration. Okay, we will leave it at that. The next question I have really ...
The Chief Minister:
Well, let us just say, we do not want to carry on. What the Council of Ministers are proposing is something which is available to Jersey but is not necessarily available elsewhere, and that is why we are talking about job substitution. We have got people now who are unemployed, who are out of work in our community. Do we at the same time need to continue with the same levels of inward migration that we have seen in the past? I would say no. We try to get the people that we have got here into the jobs that we have got here already. So that trend projection then would change.
Deputy S. Power:
But likewise, Chief Minister, if we are looking towards population modelling and projections for the next 5 to 10 years - let us not go beyond that - we are likely to see a trend projection based on the trend of the last 5 years. That was simply the question I was asking.
Assistant Chief Minister:
If the policy is to carry out what the Chief Minister and the Council of Ministers are saying about job substitution the trend has to take account of what the new policy is and the policy is going to be that we are going to attempt to carry out job substitution.
[14:45]
Deputy S. Power:
So you are saying, Assistant Chief Minister, that the trend of the past 5 years is not likely to be indicative of the projection based on trends for the next 5?
Assistant Chief Minister: I would hope so.
Deputy S. Power:
So it is not going to be a trend, we are not going to use the trend over the last 5 years?
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
Well you cannot change that in 2 minutes so how are you going to do it?
The Chief Minister:
No, but of course you can put a trend figure in that says if things happen as they have in the last 5 years they happen in the next 5 years then you are going to get one figure. But what the Council of Ministers is saying is that we are going to endeavour to produce quality and we are going to work to deliver it as well as has already started, let us be fair, around job substitution and it is not easy but it is the right thing for us to do.
Assistant Chief Minister:
Is that useful to comment on, does that help the discussion?
The Chief Minister:
I am not sure it did, no, I do not think it did.
Deputy S. Power:
All right, we run the risk of getting bogged down on trends and projections and job substitution. May I ask you another question not quite related, and it is really a comment that the Minister for Economic Development made last week at our hearing and he said that population migration has been difficult but is not impossible. He also pointed out that no enforcement has taken place under Reg. of Uns. over the last 30 odd years and previous targets have not been adhered to. In terms of compliance for the future are you content, Chief Minister, that although we have excellent regulation of high net worth individuals essentially employed, be they doctors, nurses, teachers or those in the wealth management industry, we seem to fail completely in the area of the unqualified or what will be the registered sector. Do you think that the new control of housing and work will improve that situation, compliance in the sector, that seems to have caused the spike?
The Chief Minister:
I think it will, targeted with working together with a population register because we will be able to see people's activities which perhaps in the past were not that easy to pick up on, although I am not sure if Paul wants to talk about previous compliance because I do not understand that it is quite as the Minister of Economic Development may have suggested.
Director of the Population Office:
The point I made at the previous hearing was quite right, prosecutions have been nil over many years. That does not mean that there is a lot of noncompliance out there that we are not finding, when we get reports of noncompliance we tend to find they are compliant. So I do not think there is a tremendous amount of noncompliance out there in the economy which is why we have had so few prosecutions. But also we have had a law which is not particularly effective at bringing forward prosecutions which is why it is so important we bring in the new law with the new powers it has and the more information we are going to get so that we can issue licences evenly and robustly and completely police them.
Deputy S. Power:
Would you say, Paul, that the lack of prosecutions over the period of the Regulation of Undertakings Law - there have been none - is a failure of the previous policy and that you simply do not know what is going on out there?
Director of the Population Office:
Having no prosecutions can indicate 2 things: it can indicate there is no noncompliance or very limited or that we are not doing what we should do. The honest answer, it is a bit of both. We do have a compliance officer, most of the calls she gets reporting apparent noncompliance turn out to be perfectly compliant but we have recognised for a long time we need new powers and a new law and that is what we are doing.
The Connétable of Grouville :
Could I just come in on trends? A trend is only going to be of use to you in a perfect world, is it not, where nothing changes?
The Chief Minister:
Well, no, because with any model like that you do a sensitivity analysis to try and understand the imperfections of the world in which you are operating.
The Connétable of Grouville :
Well absolutely because you are going to have to react to the situations because at the moment we might be in a trend which has an upward movement of population and then the L.V.C.R. (Low Value Consignment Relief) thing has hit us, which may in fact reverse the trend. So we have got to be prepared to jump against these things as they happen.
The Chief Minister:
And the more real time information that we have which the population register should provide should help us respond.
Assistant Chief Minister:
I think the beauty of the new legislation is that it is flexible to react to whatever is happening in the community. It is a tap that can be turned on and off and it is a balancing judgment that needs to be made of what is right for the social wellbeing of the Island and also for the economy as well so you have just got to balance those 2.
Deputy S. Power:
So in terms of the ability of the new law to take up where the old laws were not effective, the E.U. (European Union) allows free movement of goods and labour across 27 countries, so you are quite satisfied that as this new law comes in the obvious statistics that we are now faced with are the thousands of young people who have come to the Island in the last few years can come straight off a plane or a boat and you will be able to regulate the net inflow from certain countries based on control of work and housing and the name and address register?
Assistant Chief Minister:
We will be able to do it far better than we have been currently doing because there are not going to be many that would fall through the net because we would catch them at some stage, whether it be when they are registered for social security or go to the doctor or have any transaction with a States function we would have a record of them, so we would then be able to identify if they are renting in the right place, living in the right place, and ...
Director of the Population Office:
Just to be clear on the legalities, no, the law does not stop people coming to Jersey who are E.U. nationals and have a right to come here but it certainly restricts the amount of job opportunities that are available in the economy to people to come and do that.
Deputy S. Power:
So the final part of that question really is for those that adhere to the new Control of Work and Housing Law will be monitored and for those that do not or choose not to, they will remain invisible?
Director of the Population Office:
No, as the Minister says, we will find them because we have got much better ability to share information between departments.
Assistant Chief Minister:
Even D.V.S. (Driver and Vehicle Standards) and if they register a car or get a driving licence, those sorts of things, if they have any communication with a States department at any stage that they will be registered.
Deputy S. Power:
I know where we are but I think we are going to deal with population controls in a later section of questions. I will hand you back to the Chairman.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
Could I have a supplementary on Sean's question? I do not know if you could elaborate a little about the actual practical part of that process when migration does come over, particularly in Social Security, how do they know when someone left either the agricultural or hospitality industry in the past under the work permits we used to have? We felt they used to leave our employment and take up employment elsewhere, whether it retail or banking, now to me that states under the net, if you like, a way of them getting longer term employment over here. What will this process do?
Assistant Chief Minister:
If they have done that in the past the business they had moved to would have capacity in their licence to enable them to employ somebody who is not locally qualified, if that is what you are saying. But as we are going through the process and issuing new licenses, and as we have been doing in the last 18 months to 2 years when we have been reviewing the licences we have been clawing back a lot of the non-locally qualified licences.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
So do you know how many non-qualified licences there are in each sector?
Assistant Chief Minister:
We do, I have not got the figures, Paul has them there certainly.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
They would be quite useful.
Assistant Chief Minister:
The process we are going through, as every licence comes around we are looking at exactly the number of people that they have working for them and if they have spare capacity we are negotiating with them and clawing back on the non-locally qualified licence.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
That is done every 3 years, is it?
Assistant Chief Minister:
Currently that is done every 3 years under the legislation. Under the new legislation we will be able to do it at any time so we will have that ability under the new legislation.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
So if it is possible to have the figures then would be helpful, thank you.
The Chief Minister:
The 3 years is on a rolling basis, not everybody is looked at, at 3 ...
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
Yes, I understand that, Chief Minister.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
You are painting quite a rosy picture of the future having regard to ...
The Chief Minister:
Let me be absolutely clear, I am not painting a rosy picture at all. I am being absolutely upfront about the difficulty of the task that we face if we are going to deliver in a way that I want us to deliver.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
I suggest that you spend another 10 minutes telling us about how the new law is going to be all singing and dancing and you will be able to control and manage the population to the extent that we all believed back in 2008 and 2009 that it could be achieved then when we agreed against, following major public consultation, to set limits for managing our population. But I would just like to pick you up on a couple of comments that you have made. You have talked about information lacking and yet we know that you have had Regulations of Undertakings and the various information that you have spoken about has been in existence for some time. We have had a Migration Advisory Group that one would have hoped would have had a reasonable handle on not only immigration and population increases but equally unemployment. We only just now hear that our new Chief Minister is claiming that we need to look at job substitution. Why? Why has it been left and we have waited to this moment in time where not only have we got unemployment at the highest level that we have ever known in this Island, but the possibility of now with the decisions about the L.V.C.R. increasing that number substantially more, why are we now only just talking about the possibility of using and the option of job substitution? What has the Migration Advisory Group been doing and what advice have they been providing to the Minister that has not dealt with this matter before now?
The Chief Minister:
Well let me just be quite clear, when I was Minister for Social Security I sent my Assistant Minister - as to whom both sides of this table will recognise - to the Migration Advisory Group and I think it is fair to say that the robust argument that we have had this afternoon was nothing compared to the robust arguments that they used to have with regard to getting people who are unemployed and on the register at social security into the jobs and connected with individual businesses. Now they are fully supportive and right behind that move and they have taken more non-local licences, and I do not know if that is the number, I think it is 300 or 400 or so non-local licences out of the economy as part of that process. What I am saying is I want that to be the absolute driving position of how they are going to manage going forward.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
I am not questioning your desire to deal with this problem but I would like to know how you are going to reassure the public that this time is not yet more empty promises and that the controls that we have had in place and will have in place will maintain population levels to those that were agreed and determined by the public?
Assistant Chief Minister:
In 2010 there were 565 non-locally qualified staffing permissions withdrawn. In 2011 there were 375. Applications that were refused for people wanting non-locally qualified, there were 390. In 2010 and 2011 there were 334. The decisions the Migration Advisory Group have been making have been strong decisions about making sure that the local population are employed before any new people are brought to the Island.
[15:00]
Obviously you started off by your comments about 2009 and 2008 but this situation of unemployment has only really just been occurring over the last couple of years and since that has been happening we have been reacting really strongly and with the new legislation we will be able to react at a level that is appropriate for our current situation. If, for instance, in 10 years' time we do not have an unemployment problem this legislation that is coming forward will be able to react to whatever the community wants.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
But I just bring you back to the point and you talk about a lack of information and I have got serious concerns because we have had to rely as a Government and as members of the public on figures that have been provided by departments around population levels and that have been compiled by our Statistics Unit. That is the core information that we use, not just to determine population levels but a whole range of other matters which include taxes spent. What you are telling me today is that I cannot rely on that, we do not have the right information and we cannot deal with what are the key matters that will determine what spend and services, and everything else that we will need to provide, within our Island because we cannot control our population. But you are telling me do not worry because just round the corner we have got some new controls and everything will be all right. You cite figures where migration by a degree has reduced licences but the reality is that between 2001 and 2011, we had an increase of nearly 10,000 people, 1,000 people a year. That is a reality as confirmed by the Statistics Unit. Now from what you have just told me, even though you have been undertaking those exercises and reducing those licences, we still have had this increase.
Director of the Population Office:
Just to be clear, we do not have the annualised population statistics yet. That is what the Statistics Unit is going to produce for us. So, yes, it is 10,000 over 10 years but we do not know how many in each year. That is what the census will tell us.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Can I ask, and maybe I am not as clever as you, but I would have thought if you are managing the population, the first thing that you want to know is on an annual basis, what the changes are and you use what information you have available to determine those numbers. You do not say: "Well, I am going to wait for 10 years and then we are going to do an exercise based on a census." The reality is that although the census will be required and will confirm or otherwise annualised figures, and I am interested and I will question the chief statistician further on this matter, he has been producing figures that show, on an annual basis, increases. Now, I am asking you, with that information available, why are you now telling me: "We do not really know and we are going to have to wait for further information to be drawn out of the census." Why is there a difference? Why do we have to wait when over the last 10 years, we have been relying on information that has been provided by your department?
The Chief Minister:
Well the first thing to say, James, is that I am not a statistician and therefore, to some extent, I could not answer the ... what you are really asking are technical questions about how statisticians arrive at their numbers to provide, as you kindly showed me
earlier, the estimates based on the 2001 census. What we are saying is, and what the States have agreed, is that we now have, in effect, a real-time population register from which we will be able to see what the population levels are. In the past, we have had a census of 5 or 10 years. The statistics have put their numbers into the model. That is the other thing I think we just need to pick up on. A model produces the end results of what you put in but you need to speak to the statisticians about those figures that were put in and you need to wait for that reconciliation which they are carrying out, and they will be able to then show how there is that discrepancy in those numbers. But with a new register, we will not need to then go and rely on estimates but we will have the population register and it will be telling us as we are going on what the population levels are.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
So are you saying to us that the reality is that whether it is the department or the Migration Advisory Group or, in fact, the public have not been able to rely on the figures provided by the Statistics Unit because they are only estimates and they have not got much meaning? Is that what you are telling us?
The Chief Minister:
I am not saying that at all, James. You are trying to, I think, put words in my mouth unfortunately. I am not sure if you have had a briefing with the chief statistician. If you have, I am sure you have asked him these questions and I am sure that he has answered them to your satisfaction because he is the independent statistician who understands the model, and I do not know if it is the expert that you currently have but I know an expert in the past has interrogated that population model and said that the model was fine and working.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Chief Minister, the question is simple. Are we able to rely, as members of the public, as States Members, on figures produced by the Statistics Unit or not? That is a simple question.
The Chief Minister:
What do you mean by: "Are we able to rely upon them?" Do I have absolute faith in the Statistics Unit, that they are independent, that they are professional statisticians, that their population model is fit for purpose, that your expert has looked at the population model and said that it is fit for purpose, then yes.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
But is it not the case that it is your department that determines the information that, to a large extent, the Statistics Unit gathers to help determine and
The Chief Minister:
As I said, the estimates that you kindly showed me earlier were as a result of the census back in 2001.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
Yes, could I just ask, more figures, do you know how many people
The Chief Minister:
I am not doing well with figures today, am I?
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
Unqualified people will become registered to be employed under the 5-year rule over the next, say, one, 2 and 3 years. Do you know how many are coming forward that will suddenly become fully qualified?
Director of the Population Office:
I am going to say we are relying on the census and I will explain as to why. One of the key assumptions in the statistics that we are all talking about is how many people stay in Jersey. Now the only point you get that is at census, so the census people had it from 2001. They now need to analyse it from 2011 and then we will be able to answer your question.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
I know there are a lot of immigrants coming in and that 5 years' reduction to me has made a major impact and will still do so they will then become fully qualified.
Director of the Population Office:
It is a crucial factor in our control mechanism qualification criteria and what will come of it.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
So you have no idea of any figures during the next one, 2 and 3 years about how many extra will be qualified?
Director of the Population Office:
We did have previous assumptions from the Statistics Unit. I do not have them at the top of my head now.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
Would it be possible to let us have some?
Director of the Population Office: Yes.
Deputy R.J. Rondel: Thank you very much.
Assistant Chief Minister:
When you say "qualified", do you mean qualified for work as opposed to qualified for housing?
Deputy R.J. Rondel: Yes.
Director of the Population Office:
I mean I could tell you now about housing.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
No, no, it is the work. That is the key issue.
Deputy S. Power:
May I come in on a question here? One of the issues that was with the previous law was that we were not only bad at monitoring who came in but we had no idea who left. The new Control of Housing and Work Law, Paul Bradbury, sorry, I am not ignoring you, the new Control of Housing and Work Law still appears to have a weakness in that with a name and address register, there is no automatic mechanism to log who leaves. Would you then say that that is a weakness in the new system?
Director of the Population Office:
We are very aware of the difficulties with tracking who leaves Jersey. Social Security already need to do it because they need to make a decision as to whether to chase contributions or not. Other departments also need to do it. What the new laws give us, not the Control of Housing and Work Law, the Register of an Names and Addresses Law is the ability to share so we can have this procedure, I know we have talked about it before, whereby if somebody is not interacting with a Government department, we can then put them on a list for investigation as to whether they are illegal. So as long as they are paying tax or contributions or
Assistant Chief Minister:
Could I, just at this stage perhaps, offer - this is new members of this panel from the previous panel - the opportunity to look at the system that is going to be used, the computer system, because I think you would find it quite enlightening about how all the interaction is going to work between the departments. So we are very happy at any stage to lay that on.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
I think we will certainly take you up on that offer. I have already explained this particular review is being undertaken in 2 parts. The first part is really to understand some of the implications of the census figure on future policy decisions and, secondly, we will go on to look in more detail at the proposed new Control of Housing and Work Law, how it is going to be implemented and what confidence we could have that they will do what they said on the team. So we will be certainly wishing to find out more about how you plan to implement and manage the population using the new laws in the future.
Deputy S. Power:
Can I pick up on a point you made, Paul. You mentioned quite lively discussions, as the Chief Minister has referred to now, across the Migration Advisory Group table when there was a certain Minister for Housing, and I remember he was at debates on work permits and I remember a certain Minister for Housing dragging his Assistant Minister in the direction of population to the Isle of Man to look at the work permit system there. So there were lively debates and I seem to have lost a lot of them. I will leave it at that. But my question is really for you. In my time on the Migration Advisory Group, I saw at least 25 drafts of the new law which was called the Migration Law. When did it change from Migration to Draft Control of Housing and Work and why?
Assistant Chief Minister:
When the Law Officers suggested a title change because it said what it does. The title is what it actually does.
Deputy S. Power:
So given my own resignation, which was I think 2nd February 2011, some time in the spring of 2011, the draft papers on the new Migration Law changed to Control of Housing and Work? So there must have been a
Assistant Chief Minister:
Yes, I cannot remember when it happened but certainly
Director of the Population Office:
I do precisely because I was in the meeting. We were sat with the Law Officers and the Law Draftsman receiving the results of the human rights audit and we had a discussion around the table as to what the law actually did and therefore that the law should be called what it does, which is control housing.
The Connétable of Grouville :
In view of the point that Deputy Rondel brought up about the rollover of the 5-year and 10-year rule, have you ever considered bringing back seasonal working permits for a year at a time?
Assistant Chief Minister:
No we have not, I do not think. In the early days did we think about that? I cannot recall.
Director of the Population Office:
There are seasonal licences but that is not the same as a seasonal work permit for a non-E.U. national.
The Connétable of Grouville :
No, but what I am saying is, to be completely blunt, to stop people amassing housing qualifications or work qualifications because at the moment you have a backlog hanging over your head of 25,000 people who have qualifications who do not live here. Now, that is certainly going to grow, is it not? Personally, I have racked my brains and I cannot think of any other way of stopping this increase in that figure.
Assistant Chief Minister:
We know that there are people who are living outside this Island who have already qualified and who could come back at any time.
The Connétable of Grouville :
Yes, you could have up to 25,000, we are informed. So there are no worries where
Assistant Chief Minister:
Obviously, they would need to find somewhere to live. If they have been around the world and made their fortune and they want to come back to the Island, they are going to want to find somewhere to live and obviously if the facilities are
The Connétable of Grouville :
Well, that is not yet really a factor if we get somewhere like a 1929 crash in the U.K. again. They might just run home. I am just wanting to know whether you are going to consider it or not. Are you going to consider that?
The Chief Minister:
We do not know the answer to that.
The Connétable of Grouville : No, would you consider it?
The Chief Minister:
This is one of the things ... would we consider
The Connétable of Grouville :
Bringing in seasonal type legislation to stop people amassing housing qualifications. In other words, that they would not be able to use a seasonal licence when they come here.
The Chief Minister:
Well, they cannot use a seasonal licence to build
[15:15]
The Connétable of Grouville :
No if they stay here working for 10 years, they have got housing qualifications. If they break it in the middle or break it after a year and start again, then they do not get those qualifications after 10 years.
Director of the Population Office:
I think it is a worthy matter to consider. My observation is that they have a right to reside in Jersey so it is not forcing them to leave and therefore not accrue their status, unlike non-E.U. nationals.
The Connétable of Grouville :
No, they would not have a right to reside. They would not have a right to get housing qualifications and so they
The Chief Minister:
No, but they have a right to reside. It is a different thing.
The Connétable of Grouville : Okay, but not qualified?
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
But this takes us back to the point that was made in the States last week that provided we treat everybody the same, then we can have effective border controls. But presumably you would find that that would distort your economic market and your labour market. Is that correct?
The Chief Minister:
We would have to consider moving away from the current law which the States has only just agreed. I am of the view that we really should allow that to operate and see how it is operating before we change our minds in relation to it again. There is no doubt like any law let us be honest. It is right that we are concerned about population and migration and it is right that we keep it under constant review, particularly considering the issues that Dan raises and the current economic difficulties. I am tending towards the view - and Paul is going to be upset with me now - I have not formed an opinion but I think that we do need to consider the interrelationship between the 5 and the 10-year rule and the benefits that accrue at 5 years, which perhaps we need to think about, would we rather they accrued at 10 years. But that is just where I am at this moment in time. Sometimes you can see that something is perhaps not quite where you want it to be and therefore it needs to be reviewed and I think we need to consider that, particularly in light of the high unemployment and the very difficult economic situation we find ourselves in. I cannot say any more because I have not really considered it.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
Have you looked at what Guernsey have been consulting on?
Assistant Chief Minister:
Yes, we have looked at all their consultation papers and what they have put through their
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
Because, again, they were keeping the rules strict. They have a one-year licence and at the end of one year, you go back. Anyway, before the Chief Minister departs, can we just have a quick look at the Strategic Plan and
The Chief Minister:
Which bit of the Strategic Plan would you like to look at?
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
All of it, whistle stop touring.
The Chief Minister:
It is very good. I can recommend it to you.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
No, I am really interested. Unfortunately, you had to start doing the Strategic Plan before the census results are complete. What changes have you made to the Strategic Plan in light of the census figures?
The Chief Minister:
I am not sure we have made any changes in the light of the census figures themselves. Of course, we have made changes in light of consultation, not only with States Members but with members of the public as well and particularly in this area around population.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
Given that the population and the census results affect social security, tax, housing, education, hospital services, how are you dealing with that in the Strategic Plan?
The Chief Minister:
Well, I suppose you would say that we are dealing with the issues of the population that is here right through the Strategic Plan, so getting people into work, inward investment. All these things are related to population as well. Resources in the health service, that is related to the number of people obviously in our community and where we are going to nee do provide that help. Levels of population, of course, Sarah, is related to housing and the number of houses that we need to provide. As James will be aware, it is related to the education. We have to provide the amount of education, the amount of schools, and it is related to long-term planning. So it is the numbers flowing out of the census and how we are going to manage the population effects right across
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
But I understand that the dependency ratio, for example, in 2001, is the same as the dependency ratio in 2012.
The Chief Minister:
The dependency ratio in 2001
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
The dependency ratio, the workers to old age pensioners, so that will surely have had an effect on your Strategic Plan?
The Chief Minister:
The dependency ratio was the same in 2001 as in 2012?
Senator S.C. Ferguson: Apparently.
The Chief Minister:
I do not have that figure right in front of me but what we do know is that that dependency ratio is going to decrease whichever way you look at it. Basically, there will be more people not working to people working.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
Well, it is going to start by now.
The Chief Minister:
Well, I think it probably will have moved or you have told me it is the same, and I do not have the figure in front of me.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Perhaps you might choose to comment on that later?
The Chief Minister:
Yes, I would be more than happy to because that is another critical element about the population, about the profile of our community and who is going to pay for the services in the future and how we are going to provide also for those older members of the community.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
Yes, that is why I mentioned it.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
Well, it was a question leading on from just before. What was your current policy on allowing 1(1)(k)s into the Island with their families and accountants, et cetera, unsettling can you say how many
The Chief Minister:
Oh, we cannot get enough accountants.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
How many per annum? Do you have a policy on it and will it change moving forward?
The Chief Minister:
The 1(1)(k) policy is not, as it currently stands, my responsibility. I think is it 15 that the current policy is working towards? But I cannot tell you, I do not have the figures to say whether that was met last year or not. I doubt it was, I do not think it was. Probably Sean knows more than I do about that.
Deputy S. Power:
I think 1(1)(k) policy there has never been more than 8 or 9 in a year unless the figures have dramatically changed. It brings me back, if Deputy Rondel does not mind me
Deputy R.J. Rondel: Yes, that is fine.
Deputy S. Power:
We know who comes in in terms of high net worth individuals. We know who comes in essentially employed. We know who comes in, doctors, nurses, teachers and that kind of thing and people in the wealth management industry, senior executives in banks, trust companies, finance companies and we know who the States employ. We know that is all easy to regulate. What we cannot seem to regulate are those in the sector that we have been discussing which is the unqualified sector at the moment that will be the registered sector. It confirms, you get a slight indication of your own thinking, Chief Minister, that revisiting the relationship between the 5-year rule and the 10-year rule seems to suggest that that is the area that we have to look at. We know how we can control the areas I have just referred to but we have a problem with controlling the other sector, which is what I said, the unqualified and registered. That would lead me to believe that there may be areas out of the control of work and housing that have to be looked at which are outside the area of work and housing and that includes the relationship between the 5 and 10-year rule. So control of work and housing does not do that. Would you not agree?
Assistant Chief Minister:
The Chief Minister has already indicated that he was thinking along those lines, although he said he was going to surprise me with that, but he had mentioned it previously and I share that view because I think when we started out in developing this new legislation, we were in a different time and a different economic climate. There were not as many unemployed as we currently have. Things have changed and
I think we have got to react to that and if it means that we have to re-look at the 5-year issue when this was first being developed, there was an equal 10 years being that was the initial thought but there was quite a reaction from the business community, the Chamber of Commerce who are currently using the they would have liked to have done away with the 5 years completely. But there was quite a reaction from them to increase the 5 years to 10 years at that stage so we listened to the business community.
Deputy S. Power:
Not the other way round?
The Chief Minister:
There was a reaction by taking the 5 up to 10.
Assistant Chief Minister:
Up to 10, yes, and that applied across all the hospitality, agriculture and retail and they were very concerned about the effect that that would have on that section of the business community. So we listened to that and we retained the 5 years which is currently on the regulation undertaking. But as I say, the climate is different now and we have got a lot of locally qualified people who are unemployed and we have got to do something about it.
Deputy S. Power:
So would you not agree that that may be a more effective mechanism than some of the other mechanisms that we have previously used, going back to a 10-year rule or going back to somewhere between 5 and 10 years?
Assistant Chief Minister:
It is worth looking at, certainly. It is certainly worth looking at and we are thinking about it.
Deputy S. Power:
Okay, I am not quite sure where we are, Chairman.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
I would just like one final question maybe. My final question is that one of the actions in the Strategic Plan is to update the population model using the new census information and bringing realistic targets and some of the things we discussed earlier, the population immigration limit to the Assembly by July 2013. What view do you have currently about what those realistic targets might be?
The Chief Minister:
As I think I said earlier, I do not have a view on that yet until we put the numbers into the population model because it goes back to some of the things Sean was saying about trend and Dan was saying about sensitivity. We need to consider all that and then as a State and as a community, we have to do that trade-off and say this is how we want to move forward.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
So basically you are saying yes, we will use the words "realistic number" but we have not got a clue what that number might be and so it is going to be extremely difficult to determine any policy proposal because until we have pinned down a realistic target we do not know how to manage it.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
How do we decide whether that is the right target?
The Chief Minister:
No, James, that is not well, that will be a decision for the States to make, what is the right target, but we have got to have the right information and when we use the word "realistic", what we are talking about is the balance that I talked about right at the start of this hearing and that is about jobs in our community for people who are already here but also acknowledging that we need some level of immigration because we want inward investment, we want people who are going to create jobs and we also know that we need inward immigration for the social side as well, for nurses, for doctors, for teachers.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Can I ask you another question then? Are you suggesting that the current targets that we agreed in the 2009-2014 Strategic Plan are unrealistic of 150 heads of household per annum?
The Chief Minister:
I have not commented on the targets in the existing Strategic Plan.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Well I am just asking, Chief Minister. We are looking to you for some guidance as the Chief Minister, the head of the Council of Ministers, as to what you believe a realistic level of population should be. Are you saying at the moment that you cannot tell us?
The Chief Minister:
I am saying exactly what I said 2 moments ago, that we have got to populate the population model, look at some trend analysis, look at sensitivity and balance those difficult equations that we are going to have to balance and then come forward with something that will be realistic and that the community and the States are going to be able to support. But of course I supported the earlier Strategic Plan.
[15:30]
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Can you confirm that we will not get to that point until July 2013?
The Chief Minister:
It is unlikely that we will because of the work that Duncan you need to ask Duncan exactly about his time scale, but I have challenged him on it and it is not going to be available until next year. I want to engage the public widely in a debate going forward and that will mean that we will need to have a public event, we will need to consult and then obviously we need to get it before the States. There is a 6-week lodging period so it is going to take time.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
Are you going to also look at whether population number is the correct target because having a target that you cannot reach or that you will exceed is counterproductive totally?
The Chief Minister:
It is counterproductive and that is why I used the word "realistic" which another panel member does not seem to appreciate the use of.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Chief Minister, we recognise that it is 3.30 p.m.
The Chief Minister:
Yes, indeed, thank you. Would you like me to give leave to remain to my Assistant Minister?
Assistant Chief Minister:
That is very kind of you, Chief Minister.
The Chief Minister:
It is an absolute pleasure.
Assistant Chief Minister: Do have a lovely weekend.
The Chief Minister:
I am looking forward to it. All right, thank you very much indeed, Chairman. I hope we all have a good weekend.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Right, so we will move on. Deputy Power, I think you were really wanting to ask some further questions around population control and maybe now we can have the individual who has been responsible for the Migration Advisory Group for the past 3 years and had delegated responsibility for it, it is a very good opportunity perhaps to quiz that individual.
Deputy S. Power:
I am not going to go into detail over what happened in the last 3 years. There were agreements and there were disagreements on certain things but I do have a question really for Paul Bradbury in terms of effectiveness of population control to come. It is related to the timetable for the development of the register. It does appear that there are areas of the development of the register which are unclear at the moment and could you give us your latest update or your latest estimate as to when it will be live because it is a key component part of controlling population. We did have some questions last week for the Director of the Population Office with the Minister for Housing in terms of the mechanics of bringing it live and the difficulty in the timescale, which is from the time it comes in to the time it comes back from Privy Council, the law I should say, so the time it goes live. So I do not mind who answers that question.
Assistant Chief Minister:
I will let Paul answer it, if that is all right with you, Paul.
Director of the Population Office:
Yes, it is a technical question. As I said at the beginning of this hearing, as we said when the law was debated, our aim was 12 months after approval, so that is July 2012 in terms of introducing the new law so people can come and register. We have the new licences, the new controls over property but that is not the same thing as having the complete population register. What is important to complete the population register is the returns from businesses because that will inform the register and those will be due at 31st December 2012. We will then need to do some analysis and I estimated last time by April 2013 we will have a figure from the population register for December 2012.
Deputy S. Power:
In terms of the development of this register, including the various databases that have to be merged, which is an enormous task, absolutely enormous task if you go through Health, Social Security, Population Office and other States departments. Can you just give us an indication as to the work that is going on with the merging of the database because this is absolutely key in regulating population and controlling population and knowing how accurate the information is? Where are we on that?
Director of the Population Office:
We are advancing as we speak and we have been doing since October. We are comparing various databases so, for example, the driving licence database, the income tax database, the social security database and the housing database and we have got programmes which match and find matches and exceptions then come out in a report and then have got to be manually cleared up so we are going through all those exceptions as we speak.
Deputy S. Power:
Is that a full scheme or a pilot scheme?
Director of the Population Office:
That is the full scheme so just in terms of processes, the process is comparing contrast databases and then, when we get to 31st December 2012, have the returns from the business, which is the final component, and then we produce our statistics on the population for the population register. Just one other point. Now the Statistics Unit have got the census and they are going to update their population model, we will be able to compare and contrast their population model against the statistical estimates with our population register. So we will get a sense of the accuracy of our database on the Statistics Unit.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
But that means in the short to medium term we will have 2 sets of population statistics available?
Director of the Population Office: We will indeed.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
Which are you going to say is the correct one?
Director of the Population Office:
There is a robust and detailed discussion. We need to have the Statistics Unit around their assumptions around our data. So, for example, we can look at how many males they think are in the Island and how many males we think are in the Island. So you then narrow it down to the areas where you have got differences. I think at that point you are able to prove which is the accurate one.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
Yes because if there is going to be a policy based on the population figures, you cannot be having 2 sets going round.
Director of the Population Office:
What the Statistics Unit said to me is: "We are happy with your methodology in comparing databases but for us as an independent Statistics Unit, we are not going to accept your data until we are absolutely happy with it." So they are going to compare and contrast 31st December. We expect to get a very close figure.
Assistant Chief Minister:
I always remember when I first read a census report that talked about the margin of error, even in the census report, so whichever figure you are going to be looking at, there is going to be a margin of error in both. So you have got to make a judgment call at some stage.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
Yes, but you have got one figure with plus or minus, you have got the other figure. That is the area they agree. You want that area to be greater than 50 per cent of the overlap.
Assistant Chief Minister: Yes, well, that is going to be
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
If you are going to rely on either figure but you are going to have to have the definitive figure.
Director of the Population Office:
We cannot accept having 2 population figures.
Senator S.C. Ferguson: No, you cannot.
Director of the Population Office:
So it is up to us and Statistics Unit to reconcile the 2 figures.
Deputy S. Power:
Would you be happy for the Statistics Unit to validate your figures because it would be
Director of the Population Office: I am very happy for them to, yes.
Assistant Chief Minister:
I would expect that to happen.
Deputy S. Power:
It would be important in terms of validation and audit, for instance, what we would regard collectively on the Island as a competent authority of the Statistics Unit, not saying that the Population Office is not, but that is their area of expertise so you would be happy for the Stats Office to validate your figures?
Director of the Population Office:
I am in the same place as the Minister. I expect that to happen and, in fact, the Statistics Unit said they are going to do it.
Deputy S. Power:
Well that makes it a lot clearer.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
But is it not correct that local people, for argument's sake, will not be required to compulsorily register and therefore your data is going to be incomplete for some significant period of time?
Assistant Chief Minister:
If you are talking about a local person, they will be known in some way to the population register. They will either be in education, they will be seeing their doctor, they will be registered at Social Security, the Housing Department will know about them. Somewhere along the line, they will enter into the register. They will have a driving licence perhaps so there will be all those opportunities to get their name into the register. That is how it is going to work.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
We already have that information available.
Assistant Chief Minister: Yes, but it is not linked.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
All the lists that you have just spoken about when you talk about managing population and gathering information, all of those bits of information are there already.
Assistant Chief Minister:
But we have never known before if there are any duplications. By bringing all this information together and all the exceptions which are being drawn up I had a presentation about how it all works and it is very impressive. It is very labour- intensive, mind you, and it does take a long time to check that everyone for instance, if there was a James Reed of St. Ouen and a J. Reed with an "A" at the same address or spelt differently, those sorts of exceptions need to be worked through to see if it is the same person and if somebody has phoned up, we find out who is that person. That work is going on now, it has been going on for months.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
But I will tell you this, there are 3 Mrs. J. Reeds, that is right.
Assistant Chief Minister:
And that is the sort of work that needs to that work has been going on at the moment and it is still going on.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
But the reality is and I suppose we come back to the nub of the problem. You could have whatever monitoring system is in place and they can be superb and they can collect all the information but unless the individuals responsible for managing and implementing the laws to exercise the control, if that is not happening, then your monitoring is useless.
Assistant Chief Minister:
Well, the information we will have because the decisions that need to be made about somebody wanting to come to live on the Island or a new business to be establishing and wanting to employ people, when those decisions are being made, we will have all that up to date information at our fingertips to help to make those decisions which we have never had in the past. It just was not there.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
Presumably, this is because the new law is going to enable the various departments to communicate with each other.
Assistant Chief Minister:
But there would be one names and address register.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
Yes, so you can get the tax information, you can get the social security names and address information?
Assistant Chief Minister:
Only names and address. No more information, not tax information, be clear about that.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
It is just names and addresses?
Assistant Chief Minister: Just names and addresses.
Senator S.C. Ferguson: Cross-referenced?
Director of the Population Office:
There is very basic data, names and address, date of birth place, that sort of thing.
Deputy S. Power:
I have one question on inward and outward migration in a minute, but there was one question that was left hanging in the air, it is really one I would like to follow up. When you say that the Statistics Office are going to produce annualised information on the census are you expecting any surprises out of that? Are you expecting differences of perhaps the spike in the net inward migration to be caused by different reasons because an annualising of those statistics comes with very different figures?
Director of the Population Office:
I think it would be very interesting. There is 10,000 growth over 10 years. It will not be 1,000 per year. I would have expected it to follow the economic cycle but sometimes you have reverse implications so, for example, even if Jersey's economy has been going down, other economies have been doing worse, so you might not have seen the net outward that you would normally see.
Deputy S. Power:
Would you be surprised if the annualising of the figures produced a spike in the last 2 years?
Director of the Population Office:
I am putting myself in line. I would expect to see the people round the economic peak around 2005, 2006, 2007 not 2008, 2009, 2010. I do not know until I see the figures. I need to see the figures.
Deputy S. Power:
It could be that we are experiencing a result of the annualisation of our net inward migration may be caused by factors outside the Island's economy?
Director of the Population Office:
Absolutely. It is not always the Island sucking people in. It is other economies not taking away.
Deputy S. Power:
I just wanted it clear in my own mind as to what your own opinion was on that. When the new law comes in, and we have the provision of new data on inward and, to a lesser extent, outward migration because we still have to find a mechanism of doing that based on inactivity, or whatever, on social security, how accurate do you expect it to be then on an annual basis? What percentage do you think you will allow given the advice you have got for error or inaccuracies?
Director of the Population Office:
We do not have a figure in mind. I mean obviously our target is 100 per cent. Will we ever achieve that? No. Would we be disappointed with 95, 96 per cent accuracy? Yes. So I would be looking for somewhere in that range, 96 to 100 per cent accuracy. We are not going to get 100 per cent obviously.
Deputy S. Power:
No, I would not expect that, but you expect it as high as that, 95, 96, over a period of time?
Director of the Population Office: I think it is important that we are.
Deputy S. Power:
By the third or fourth year?
Director of the Population Office:
Yes. I mean given that this is a linking of data bases across the States so taxpayers, social security payers. You would expect to capture 95, 96 per cent of people.
Deputy S. Power:
On the cross-referencing of the databases, where is that based? Is that based at your office or Social Security or the Chief Minster's? Where is the actual cross- referencing being done?
Director of the Population Office:
It is under the I.T. (Information Technology) Department and it is being done at the I.T. Department.
Deputy S. Power:
At Cyril Le Marquand House?
Director of the Population Office: Yes.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Just picking up on that, we talk about quality data.
[15:45]
You have said to us many times during the last hour and a half is that quality data is important. Capturing the right information, having the right information to make decisions is very important. We want to know when ... first of all will the new laws be approved, and to be implemented in this July, will they produce and deliver that data that you say is essential and when, at what time period, will we be able to rely on the information that will be generated from the population register and the new laws that are going to be introduced?
Assistant Chief Minister:
I am afraid that is a technical matter.
Director of the Population Office:
As I said before, our aim is 31st December 2012 but we will compare that with the Statistics Unit and we will reconcile it. So that is the point that obviously we are aiming for.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Are you saying that by the end of this year? You are suggesting that you will have significantly better data than currently exists to make decisions around it?
Director of the Population Office:
We will have significantly better data by the end of this year. My only reservation is that percentage figure we talked about before. Is it going to be 95, 98, I cannot commit at this stage on that. But we were aiming for the end of this year.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
So what additional data will we be able to capture after July that we cannot at the moment?
Director of the Population Office:
At the moment the population figures are estimates based upon the manpower data that we receive, the data from the schools, and the pensioners from Social Security. In future it will bring in much more data. It will bring in income tax, driving licences, Health and Education's database, doctors, the prescriptions, the subsidies that Social Security give, the hospitals would be an ultimate aim as well. You start to ...
Deputy R.J. Rondel: Big Brother.
Director of the Population Office:
Well, the further you expand that out into the very basic dataset the more accurate you are going to be on the population register.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
I understood that the Jersey population has been and continues to be promoted as a very good model by those that understand the information and statistics, and it does capture a lot of live information and translates it into information that is then usable. From what you are telling me, is that that is not the case and the reliability of the information will only happen after July, when the new laws come in.
Director of the Population Office:
I cannot comment enough on the population register. Duncan would be better. The population forecasting model, he would be better at that, but my understanding is that a lot of his assumptions are based upon the 2001 census. So yes they are validated by your advisers as robust and fit for purpose based upon the information available. We now have a 2011 census.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
Going back to the computer system; how will it flag up somebody that is here that should not be here and escaped through the net living here?
Director of the Population Office:
Same sort of comments I mentioned before, so for example in so many registers, income tax will record them, Social Security record them. If they do not they might go to the G.P. (General Practitioners) ...
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
Yes, I understand that. We know they will be here, but if they should not be here. They might go to the doctor but perhaps they should not be here. How will that be highlighted? How will we find out?
Director of the Population Office:
Social security already have a procedure and there is one in our procedures map as well, that if you have not got the required permission from Immigration you refuse to register them and you contact Immigration.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
That is what I am trying to get at the actual system, how it is flagged up that somebody ...
Director of the Population Office:
There is a process map that I was looking at yesterday they are going to design into the system, which includes reference to whether you have the right immigration status.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
Is that the computer system you are talking about?
Assistant Chief Minister: Yes.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
That would be very interesting.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
Can I come up with a silly little question based on [Interruption] ... In the census results it talked about the number of people who were unemployed but not signed up for social security. In the analysis of people in the census have you any idea how many of those are possibly reported in the census but are working on the black?
Assistant Chief Minister:
We would not have any idea if that would be the case. Certainly there has always been a difference between the number which Social Security have published and what is ... because other people have not had to register with Social Security. I could not comment really about whether it may or may not be working in the black economy.
Deputy S. Power:
May I ask a supplementary on that? I am just wondering how many people do ... how long would it take more than how many people. How long do you think it will take to capture those that are not economically active but would be difficult to pin down on
the database? Say people who do not transact. People who have independent means, people who do not go to a doctor, people who do not use Social Security, there are quite a lot of those.
Director of the Population Office:
The point is we do not know how many of those ...
Assistant Chief Minister:
It is quite a lot – I do not know how you can quantify "quite a lot". I would be really surprised if there was somebody who has obviously come here, economically inactive, and were living in a family or something, understand the sort of circumstances, but who perhaps did not interact at some stage, whether it even be just to go and get a prescription or go to the doctor or driving licence or something like that. There will be some but I cannot imagine it is a lot.
Deputy S. Power:
I anticipate a situation may occur. I am not talking about people who come to the Island, not even born here, who may resent this whole what might be construed as an invasion of privacy that you would have to register for names and addresses, and they simply do not ... without doubt there are people who will be born here who may be of some means where they do not come up on the Social Security register, may not need to have a prescription, may have some income that is private and will simply opt out.
Assistant Chief Minister:
They have probably been tax then, so we would get them from paying tax.
Senator S.C. Ferguson:
I know anecdotally of people who have been living over here for 40 years and have never paid any tax.
Assistant Chief Minister:
But have they been to the doctor?
Director of the Population Office:
In addition to that though, we are going to have to have boots on the ground. We cannot just rely on ...
Deputy S. Power: It will take time.
Director of the Population Office:
I think I have said before we are going to do less admin in terms of ... because we are stripping out some rules and refocus those people on compliance. We have just got to get round the ...
Assistant Chief Minister:
But compliance is not just solely the Population Office now of course because the way the law is written Social Security can do compliance for us. They are all going to be working together. The people down in Harbour as well. They all can work together now whereas they were all working separately previously, now they will all be able to do each other's compliance and report to each other.
Deputy S. Power: On this one database?
Assistant Chief Minister: Under this law.
Director of the Population Office:
There is no point Social Security visiting somebody and then us visiting them 3 months later, I do not think.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Can I ask, is it likely that there will be any changes to legislation in light of the 2011 census figures?
Assistant Chief Minister:
We have not got anything planned as yet but, as you heard the Chief Minister mention earlier about, we are thinking about looking at something to do between the 5 and the 10-year issue, but whether that comes forward, but certainly that is something we are considering. Obviously the regulations have got to come back to the States, which will be happening. Where are we with the regulations?
Director of the Population Office:
29th May is our last lodging date for the summer session.
Deputy S. Power:
So it will come in under this new law?
Director of the Population Office:
Yes. Sorry, apologies maybe I confused matters. The regulations we currently have drafted, our intention is to lodge before 29th May. If there is a change in the qualifying rules we do not have any timetable for that.
Assistant Chief Minister:
We do not have a timetable for that. It has only really been talked about and thought about over the last week or so, but it is certainly something we are thinking about.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
When do you think you will be able to share those regulations with us?
Assistant Chief Minister: They are attached to the law.
Director of the Population Office: Yes, they were.
Assistant Chief Minister:
When the law was debated they were attached to the back of them.
Deputy R.J. Rondel:
There is an awful lot of it.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
This would be confirming those regulations, would it?
Assistant Chief Minister:
No, we have not debated those regulations but the regulations were attached to the law to give an indication as to what the regulations would be and how it all worked together. Because we have to wait for the main legislation to come back from Privy Council before we can debate the regulations.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
Are you planning to brief States Members on the regulations before they are debated or just take it as read?
Assistant Chief Minister:
I had not thought about that because they are what they were discussed when we debated the law originally. Whether it might be worth it for some of the new members, possibly. It might be worth thinking about doing that.
Deputy S. Power:
I have no further questions.
The Deputy of St. Ouen :
I would like to thank you both for attending and also convey my thanks to the Chief Minister, excepting that he was not able to be with us for the last half an hour. We would also like to take the opportunity to thank the members of the public for attending and I will now declare the meeting officially closed. Thank you very much and have a good weekend.
[15:56]