Residential land availability: January 2011.

Residential land availability

January 2011

R.119/2011

Preface

The purpose of this report is to provide more up-to-date knowledge on housing supply, to allow comparisons with identified requirements for new homes in the Island Plan, and to assist in ensuring that an adequate supply of suitable housing will be available to meet the community's needs.

It is the intention to provide regular monitoring reports on housing land availability and the performance of related planning policies over the Plan period of the 2011 Island Plan.

Policy and Projects Team, Department of the Environment September 2011

Contents

Page No.

1. Introduction  1
2. Summary of findings  1
3. Future considerations  1
4. Recent completions in the qualified sector  2

 Annual completions  2

Distribution of completions  4

Completions by type and size  4

5. Outstanding commitments in the qualified sector  5

Commitments by type  5

Distribution of commitments  7

Commitments by type and size  9

Outstanding commitments for older persons' housing  10

6. Completions and outstanding commitments in the  10 unqualified sector
7. Other potential housing supply  10
8. Comparing known housing supply with overall  11 requirements for homes in the qualified sector
9. Key issues arising  14
10. Unqualified sector  14

Tables

1. Housing completions in the qualified sector  3

2. Net completions of new homes in the qualified sector, by parish, 2002 – end  4 2010

3. Net completions of new homes in qualified sector, by type and size, 2010  5

4. Outstanding commitments for new homes in qualified sector, at start 2011  6

5. Housing commitments for new homes in qualified sector, by parish, @ start  7 2011

6. Outstanding commitments for new qualified sector homes, by type and size,  9

@ start 2011

7. Outstanding commitments for older persons' homes @ start 2011  10

8. Supply of homes provided for in the 2011 Island Plan, 2011-2015  11

9. Comparison between estimated requirements for new homes, 2011-2015 and  12 supply

Appendices

1. Schedule of social rented housing completions, since 2002  15
2. Schedule of purpose-built first-time buyer housing completions, since 2002  19
3. Schedule of purpose-built open market lifelong homes completions, since  21 2009
4. Schedule of social rented housing property sales on the open market, by type,  22 2004-2010
5. Schedule of social rented housing property sales to social rent tenants (as  24 first-time buyers), by Type, 2007 - 2010
6. Schedule of known completions due for social rented housing, by type, by end  25 2015
7. Schedule of known completions due for first-time buyer housing, by type, by  27 end 2015
8. Schedule of known completions due for open market lifelong homes, by type,  28 by end 2015
9. Schedule of known completions due for social rented lifelong homes, by type,  29 by end 2015
10. Schedule of projected sales of Housing property to first-time buyers, by type,  30 by end 2015
11. Schedule of projected sales of Housing's social rented property on the open  30 market, by type, by end 2015
12. Status of zoned Category A sites at 29 July 2011  31

1. Introduction

The purpose of this report is to provide more up-to-date knowledge on housing supply, to allow comparisons with identified requirements for new homes in the Island Plan, and to assist in ensuring that an adequate supply of suitable housing will be available to meet the community's needs.

The information provided here describes the situation at the start of 2011 and effectively supplements the information included in the Department of the Environment's earlier reports entitled:

• An Interim Review of Residential Land Availability', February 2010; and
• Residential Land Availability Statistics @ Start 2010', June 2010.

Following the approval of the 2011 Island Plan, it is the intention to provide regular monitoring reports on housing land availability and the performance of related planning policies.

2. Summary of findings

The evidence available on housing supply suggests that the Island is in a good position to meet overall demand for new homes during the first five years of the 2011 Island Plan. Current outstanding housing commitments and other identified sources of housing supply considerably exceed the overall requirement for 2,000 homes during the period. This is largely down to an excess in land availability for private Category B development. In contrast, the evidence suggests that the existing and potential overall supply for Category A homes at this time will only just be sufficient to meet the identified requirement for 500 homes up to the end of 2015.

Despite the findings of this review and the apparent generally favourable land availability situation at the start of 2011, there can be no room for complacency. There are some significant challenges facing the Island at this time in relation to housing provision, which require more detailed consideration. Furthermore, it is important to keep the housing situation under close scrutiny, to provide regular up-to-date information, identify any unforeseen changes in circumstances and ensure that such changes are responded to effectively and in a timely manner.

3. Future considerations

Examples of key areas which present significant challenges and require more detailed consideration, including:

• The provision of affordable homes' for residents and key workers;
• The future role of social rented housing (in the light of the Whitehead Report');
• Matching the type and size of homes supplied to identified requirements;

• Planning to meet the future housing needs of a rapidly growing elderly population; and
• The continuing economic downturn and the current depressed nature of the local housing market.

Housing affordability is perhaps the most important issue requiring attention at this time, given the current difficulties for people on low or modest incomes gaining access to suitable housing that they can afford. To assist the procurement of required affordable homes, the Department of Environment is currently conducting a review of the draft supplementary planning guidance for Island Plan Policy H3 (Affordable Housing), including the associated standard viability assessment model for new housing developments. It is doing so in consultation with the construction industry.

On the demand side, there is a need for more in-depth information about housing requirements to help ensure appropriate delivery of new homes across all tenures. When it is set up, the new housing gateway' will help provide better information about the numbers of affordable homes required (including social rented, shared ownership / Jersey Homebuy 2, designated first-time buyer, and self-build or other housing developed specifically at reduced costs and available through the gateway). The new Housing Needs Survey' which is scheduled to be carried out by the States Statistics Unit in 2012 will also provide valuable up-to-date and detailed information on housing requirements, including the types and sizes of homes required in each tenure group.

4. Recent completions in the qualified sector

Annual completions

Table 1 shows the net number of completions of new homes in the qualified sector since 2002 (i.e. the adoption of the 2002 Island Plan) and allows a comparison with past trends. Despite reductions in net completions in the last three years, during the economic downturn, residential construction work since 2002 has been impressive resulting in approximately 4,700 new homes. The average building rate during the last nine years of approximately 520 new homes per year is very healthy and significantly exceeds the average rate of completions achieved in the preceding 16 years (366) during the life of the 1987 Island Plan.

The average rate for purpose-built Category A and Category B homes during the 9 years to the end of 2010 was 166 and 356 homes per year respectfully. However, the figures take no account of the proportion of the completions currently included in Category B private developments, which will have contributed to meeting identified Category A requirements.

Table 1: Housing completions in qualified sector

*1 see Appendix 1 for details; *2 see Appendix 2 for details; *3 includes lodging and staff accommodation; *4 excludes lodging and staff accommodation; *5 now includes Jersey Homebuy; *6 includes social rental lifelong homes

Distribution of completions

Most of the net increase in homes over this 9 year period (61%) was in the urban parishes of St. Helier (41%), St. Saviour (8%) and St. Clement (12%), as indicated in Table 2 below. This is very much in line with the spatial strategy' for new development set out in the 2002 Island Plan, which promoted more sustainable development concentrated in urban areas (N.B. a strategy which has been reinforced in the 2011 Island Plan).

Table 2: Net completions of new homes in the qualified sector, by parish, 2002 – end 2010

*1 excluding contribution from private Category B developments.

Completions by type and size

Table 3 gives an indication of the types and sizes of the homes which were completed for Category A and Category B purposes in 2010. The majority of completions (79%) were 2- and 3-bed homes. As in 2009, the net total of 201 homes was fairly evenly spread between flat completions (42%) and house completions (58%). This is different to the preceding two years (2007 and 2008) when the great majority of completed homes were houses. Prior to 2007, the prevalent trend was for the majority of units completed being flats.

Table 3: Net completions of new homes in qualified sector, by type and size, 2010

*1 includes apartments, studios, bedsits and maisonettes; *2 includes bungalows and cottages

5. Outstanding commitments in the qualified sector

Commitments by type

Table 4 provides details of outstanding commitments for new homes in the qualified sector' at the end of 2010. It illustrates good levels of commitments (i.e. nearly 3,000 homes), which comfortably exceed the target requirements for new homes in the first half of the 2011 Island Plan period up to the end of 2015. Of course, not all the commitments will be completed in that timeframe, but the majority should be, including:

• the 974 Category B homes under construction at the end of 2010;
• a proportion of both the 1500 Category B homes with existing consents, which had yet to start (supplemented by an unknown number of proposed homes which will be granted consent during the five year period 2011- 2015);
• virtually all the 83 outstanding commitments for first time buyer homes (whether or not they were under construction at the start of 2011);
• the commitments for Lifelong homes (approx. 350 homes) and other social rented homes under construction (approx. 100 homes).

The commitments for other social rented homes during the period show a net loss of 24 homes, which reflects the Housing Department's ongoing programme of redeveloping its outworn housing developments.

Table 4: Outstanding commitments for new homes in qualified sector, at start 2011

*1 net of permissions which have not been advanced for 4 years or more; *2 see Appendix 7 for details ;*3 see Appendix 8 for details; *4 see Appendix 9 for details; *5 see Appendix 6 for details; *6 These figures take no account of the potential 160 or so owner occupied homes

which would be released when the owners downsize to open market Lifelong homes.

As can be seen from Appendices 6 - 9, the commitment figures for Category A homes rely to a significant degree on:

• the remnants of development sites rezoned for the purpose under Policy H2 of the 2002 Island Plan; and
• the fields zoned by the States in July 2008, primarily for Lifelong Homes (P.75/2008) and included in the 2011 Island Plan.

The current status of these sites is outlined in Appendix 12.

Distribution of commitments

Table 5 illustrates the availability of housing commitments by parish. As with completions over the last 9 years, most of the commitments are concentrated in the main urban parishes (76%), including St. Helier (62%) and St. Saviour (12%). The low level of net commitments in St. Clement (2%) is due, in part, to losses of homes associated with redevelopment and refurbishment of outworn housing.

Table 5: Housing commitments for net new homes in qualified sector, by parish @ start 2011

Commitments by type and size

Table 6 gives an indication of the types and sizes of the homes to be provided from known Category A and Category B commitments at the start of 2011. The commitments cover a range of dwelling types and include nearly 2,000 flats (66%) and approximately 1,000 houses (34%). The evidence also suggests that currently in the pipeline, there are significant additional supplies of 1- and 2-bedroom accommodation (83% of which are flats) and reasonably healthy supplies of 3- and 4-bedroom family homes (80% of which are houses).

Table 6: Outstanding commitments for new qualified sector homes, by type and size, at start 2011

*1 includes apartments, studios, bedsits and maisonettes; *2 includes bungalows and cottages

Outstanding commitments for older persons' housing

At the beginning of 2011 there were outstanding commitments for approximately 350 homes aimed at the older members of the community. These might be variously described as Lifelong Homes or retirement homes and they are either for sale in the private sector or provided in the social rented sector (i.e. by Parishes, Trusts and the States). The homes in question are set out in Table 7.

Table 7: Outstanding commitments for older persons' homes @ start 2011

* This does not include redevelopments and refurbishments at existing Housing Department sites, which are producing numbers of units aimed at older, less mobile members of the community.

6. Completions and outstanding commitments in the unqualified sector

There is currently a lack of good, comprehensive data on the supply of non- qualified accommodation (including Registered Lodging Houses, private lodgings with 5 or less lodgers and staff accommodation) and this is likely to remain the case until the new system for monitoring and regulating migration is properly up and running. Nevertheless, the situation, based on the limited information that is presently available (including the Lodging House Inspector's 2009 report) is described in An Interim Review of Residential Land Availability', Planning and Environment Department, 2010.

7. Other potential housing supply

The 2011 Island Plan identifies a range of supply sources which can potentially generate 2,425 new homes over the first five year period 2011- 2015. These are set out in Table 8 and comprise 400 Category A and 2,025 Category B homes. It can be seen that heavy reliance is placed on the opportunities presented by the St. Helier Waterfront, town regeneration and private windfall developments located elsewhere in the built-up area.

Table 8: Supply of homes provided for in the 2011 Island Plan, 2011-2015.

*1 This is an outdated figure, in that only two sites remained to be completed at the start of 2011, with an estimated yield of 41 homes (see Appendix 12).

*2 This refers to an estimated loss of the total number of units associated with the planned re- development and upgrading of old outworn housing estates owned and managed by the States of Jersey Housing Department.

Source: States of Jersey – Island Plan, 2011

8. Comparing known housing supply with overall requirements for homes in the qualified sector

The figures in Table 9 look to apply known and likely housing supply to estimated requirements set out in the 2011 Island Plan.

It can be seen that, in broad terms, the housing completions to-date combined with known outstanding commitments and identified supply sources more than match the identified total requirements up to the end of 2015. In fact, they greatly exceed identified total requirements by the order of 800 homes. This is largely down to an excess of land availability for private Category B development.

The Category A situation is different in that the existing and potential supply at this time just about equates to the identified requirement for 500 homes.

Table 9: Comparison between estimated requirements for new homes, 2011 – 2015 (based on 2011 Island Plan) and supply

See notes over:

Notes:

*1. These 2010 completions were not taken into account when the identified requirement

figures were rolled forward during the Island Plan Review process.

*2. This includes some Category B homes that will have contributed to meeting f-t-b needs. *3. This takes no account of:

• Cat B consents not commenced at start 2011 but which will complete by end of 2015;
• Cat B consents which will be granted and could complete in the period.

However, it does include some Category B homes that will contribute to meeting f-t-b needs.

*4. The 2011 Island Plan estimated a potential yield of 75 Category A homes and 675

Category B homes in the town. 146 homes are already accounted for as being under construction at Hotel Rex, Salisbury Crescent, Sunshine Hotel, Gardener & Sussex House and Sacre Coeur (33 x Cat A and 113 x Cat. B).

*5. The estimated yield is for 825 private windfall units over the 5 years between 2011 and

2015 @ a conservative 165 homes/annum. 354 units are already accounted for as being under construction outside St. Helier , thus leaving 471 units not accounted for. The Island Plan affordable housing policy will have some impact in the timeframe. It is anticipated that this will contribute the 75 affordable homes required.

*6. The 2011 Island Plan estimates a yield of 600 homes on St Helier Waterfront up to 2015.

384 homes are already accounted for as being under construction at Castle Quays, leaving 216 homes not accounted for. The balance is likely to be met from outstanding permits for Zepherus (59 homes), Esplanade Quarter (388 homes) or Caste Quays Phase II (280 homes).

*7. The 2011 Island Plan estimates a net loss of 300 social rented homes between 2011 and

2015, associated with planned redevelopment and upgrading of old outworn housing estates. The Housing Department has advised that this figure should probably be revised down to 100-150 units, given where it is currently with its refurbishment programme and taking into account recent losses and planned losses over the first 5 year period of the Island Plan.

*8. The target figure is likely to be met if one takes into account that certain planned private

Category B developments are likely to contribute directly to meeting some first-time buyer needs.

*9. Island Plan Policy H1 requires planning permissions to be secured for 150 affordable

homes on States owned land within 2 years of the Plan's adoption. It is realistic to expect that the majority of these homes will be delivered at the beginning of the second 5-year plan period.

It is important to emphasise that the conclusions reached from Tables 9 rely heavily on the following housing yield assumptions:

• new homes will arise in good numbers from town regeneration and the St Helier Waterfront (750 homes and 600 homes respectively);
• there will be a continuing healthy supply of private windfall developments elsewhere in the built-up area (825 homes); and
• all the remaining sites zoned for Lifelong Homes and First-time Buyer homes in P.75/2008, will come forward for development (300 homes). The current status of these sites is given in Appendix 12.

It should also be acknowledged that the reliance placed by the States on private developers to provide need housing on zoned sites has implications for delivery times. It means that the decision about when to develop sites is a matter for the land owner and the developer and this can be affected by all manner of influences, including availability of development funding, views on the market, availability of resources to undertake development and constraints imposed by planning policies and obligation agreements. This together with the recent economic downturn has accounted for the delays experienced in advancing a number of allocated sites and approved developments.

9. Key issues arising

Notwithstanding the relatively healthy overall land availability position, there are a number of housing issues which present challenges for the Island and require further consideration. These issues have previously been addressed in An Interim Review of Residential Land Availability', Planning Department, 2010 and include:

• the provision of affordable homes' for residents and key workers;
• the future role of social rented housing, in the light of the Whitehead Report';
• the need to identify the type and size of homes required and to match these with supply; and
• planning to meet the future housing needs of a rapidly growing elderly population.

10. Unqualified sector

This matter is also addressed in An Interim Review of Residential Land Availability', Planning Department, 2010. Assessing the current position continues to be hampered by a lack of available data. However, from the evidence available at the time, the above report concludes that there seems no reason why the market cannot continue to be successful in meeting estimated requirements in the foreseeable future.

Appendix 1

Schedule of social rented housing completions since 2002

*1 The 6 homes completed in 2010 at Uplands (Field 1218), Mont-a-l'Abbe for Homebuy are likely to become social rented, if they cannot be sold for Homebuy, under the terms of the associated POA. The revised Homebuy mechanism has yet to be brought back to the States of Jersey for approval.

Appendix 2

Schedule of purpose built first time buyer housing completions since 2002

*1 At the start of September 2011, the 6 completed Homebuy units remained unoccupied. Due to the terms of the POA, these units are likely to become social rented, if they cannot be sold for Homebuy. Homebuy cannot be currently met, because the revised Homebuy mechanism has yet to be brought back to the States of Jersey for approval. In the interim, for the purposes of this report, the 6 homes in question will be classed as Social Rented homes.

Appendix 3

Schedule of purpose built open market lifelong homes completions since 2009

Schedule of social rented housing property sales on the open market, by type, 2004- 2010

Note: The States Social Housing Property Plan, 2007-2016' provides for the sale of 27 houses on the open market.

Schedule of social rented housing property sales to social rent tenants (as first-time buyers), by type, 2007-2010