Carbon Neutral Strategy 2019 [P.127/2019]

CLIMATE  EMERGENCY

Carbon Neutral Strategy  Carbon Neutral Strategy

Contents

Minister's Foreword 4 5.4.1  Summary of quantitative assessment for the road  51 1. Introduction 6 transport sector

1. Taking the time to think about the future 6 5.5  Policy scenarios related to heating

56

2. Declaring a climate emergency 8 5.5.1  Summary of quantitative assessment for the heating sector

57

3. Route map for the carbon neutral journey 11 5.6  Carbon offsetting

66

A  Establishing a carbon neutral strategy 13 5.7  On-Island sequestration 68 2  Context for the carbon neutral strategy 14 5.8  Policy conclusions and considerations 69

C  Delivering together in 2020 71

1. Global scientific context  14
2. Policy Context  19 6. Delivering in 2020

72

73 3  Our defining principles  28 6.1  Tackling the climate emergency in 2020

1. Principle 1 We will adopt a strategic focus on all emissions 29 6.2  Reducing carbon emissions from Government activity

75

2. Principle 2 We will work within a definition of   29 6.3  Reducing our wider carbon footprint

77

carbon neutrality  6.3.1  Our individual actions 79

3. Principle 3 We will require high standards in the use of  29 6.3.2  Our global economic reach 80 carbon offsetting  6.3.3  Our imports and exports 81
4. Principle 4 We will make sure that everyone can play  29  7  Governance and other considerations 83 their part

1. Governance of the strategy  83

5. Principle 5 - We will make sure that carbon neutrality policies do  29

not overall increase income inequality 7.2  Financing the strategy  84 B  Planning and developing a long-term climate  30 7.3  Understanding the long-term requirements of our  86

action plan energy market

1. A people-powered approach 31 8  Conclusions and next steps 87
2. What are the elements of the people-powered approach? 33 Appendices 89
3. Why we need to start with people-power 34 Appendix 1  Principles to inform the carbon neutral strategy 90
4. What are the benefits of a people-powered approach? 36 Appendix 2   Roles and responsibilities in the   91
5. Timeline for the people-powered process 38 people- powered approach

5  How might we make progress towards carbon neutrality? 41 Appendix 3   Mandate for a carbon neutral citizens assembly 93

1. Establishing a baseline for carbon neutrality 42 Appendix 4   Strong start: delivery plan 2020  95
2. Developing long-term policy options  45
3. Policy approaches in other jurisdictions  46
4. Policy scenarios related to transport 50

The carbon neutral strategy was adopted as amended by the States Assembly on 26th February 2020.

/Pages/Votes.aspx?VotingId=5684

4 Carbon Neutral Strategy  Carbon Neutral Strategy  / Minister's foreword 5

Minister s foreword

Like many people of my post-war generation, in the early 1970s  I first became aware of enlightened scientists concern over the  impact of human activity on our planet.  

In the decades that followed, the environment was seen as  

the province of concerned, far-out groups and ignored by  mainstream politicians who focused on the big political issues:  taxes, the economy and public services.

In my short time in politics, I realised that the environment would  only receive political attention when it became a priority of the  public. The last decade has brought home the environmental  realities storm events, extreme weather, changes in polar ice  

Deputy John Young

flows, species extinction and pollution being just a few.

Minister for the Environment

Public attitudes have suddenly changed, particularly in

December 2019

response to the leadership shown by young people, a

movement which I personally find inspiring. Our planet is their  The carbon neutral strategy was future our children, grandchildren and future generations.  adopted in February 2020. This

document has been updated to In response to community concerns voiced by a backbench

incorporate the amendments States Member, the States Assembly voted in May 2019 to

that were agreed.

declare a climate emergency, and asked for a plan to aim to

achieve carbon neutrality by 2030.

It s hard to put an effective plan together in such a short timescale, but I m very confident that we ve set a route map for the long-term, not just the next few years.

I believe Jersey can and should become the first carbon neutral jurisdiction in the British Isles.

The Government and the States Assembly will take the tough decisions to change laws, taxes and regulations and to build new sustainable infrastructure.

But this will not be enough unless each of us faces up to the impact that being carbon neutral will have on our daily lives.

This is why our strategy is to unleash the power of people across our Island and to make carbon neutrality the defining mission of our next decade. Together, we can show ourselves, our peers and future generations of Islanders, the great things we can achieve when we all work together.

Introduction Tinhtihs ics arrabcoen: neutral strategy presents Jersey with an opportunity to agree where it wants to stand

Will we act quickly in ways that  Will we maintain our strong but strengthen our communities,  steady progress, align plans with

1. Taking the time to think about the future  improve our health and wellbeing,  global norms and make a gradual, protect and enhance our natural  or  though not insignificant transition in

Jersey has a good record of tackling its carbon impact; on-Island emissions have fallen by  and built environments, and  line with similar jurisdictions?

over a third since 1990. As a jurisdiction, we take our global responsibilities seriously and act in  seek influence and early mover

accordance with ratified international treaties on climate change. advantages in the new global

economy?

Jersey has lower per capita carbon emissions than many jurisdictions of a similar size, and the

lowest of all jurisdictions in the British Isles. Some people will feel this is enough, and that the

existing policies set out in Pathway 2050[1] should be retained and delivered. Others, including our

elected representatives in the States Assembly, leading businesses and many Islanders, believe  These choices, and the pace of a transition to a low carbon future, have significant social and

we need to go further, act faster and continue to use our privileged position to demonstrate what a  financial implications. That is why the central strategic choice laid out here is to pursue a wide- concerted effort to decarbonise our Island can look like.  ranging programme of public deliberation and planning, including Jersey s first large-scale

citizens assembly. We will come together as an Island to explore the options open to us, and the Some will say it is not worth Jersey becoming carbon neutral when other countries have not  implications of our choices, before agreeing a final pathway and long-term climate action plan by committed to do the same. We reject that view. While we are global citizens, our strongest moral  the end of 2020.

and legal responsibility is to the future generations of Islanders that will live in and look after

Jersey; our children and our children s children. Our responsibilities are not lessened because  This is a mature approach, aimed at creating the foundations for long-term social and economic others fail to act. It is our responsibility to improve Jersey's air quality, protect and enhance  change, and it will require us all to make time and space for the reasoned, long-term thinking that its natural environment, create the infrastructure to lead healthier lives and replace polluting  this issue requires.

technologies for the longer-term. These local benefits of carbon neutrality are significant and (as  Some of the world s best scientists are beginning to question the viability of many of our natural shown in section five) outweigh the upfront costs of change. environments and the long-term future of the human race. This, if nothing else, should make us

There will be much discussion of the costs of becoming carbon neutral. These costs are significant,  stop and think, should encourage us to make space in our daily lives to discuss with our friends, and will be shaped by the timing and level of our ambition. When we are counting these costs, we  family and loved ones how we want to move forward as a community, and the choices and should acknowledge that the choice facing Jersey is not whether to become carbon neutral, but  changes we are willing to make as a result.

when. The UK has made a legal commitment to become carbon neutral by 2050, and our nearest  This carbon neutral strategy makes that time and space available to us as an Island. How we neighbours in the EU are likely to agree the same[2]. Jersey will surely follow suit, willingly or under  choose to use it will be down to each and every one of us.

international obligation. The cost of our ambition is the cost difference between acting sooner and  

acting later; the cost of acting is a given.

If we act sooner we can secure the local benefits of carbon neutrality earlier, improving the  quality of life for more children and families. Acting sooner, and in a bold and inclusive way, also  presents the chance to differentiate Jersey on the global stage, and to use this reputational capital  to support existing strategic priorities, such as protecting and developing our finance and digital  sectors.

We are not alone in looking again at our long-term environmental plans. Driven by new findings in  climate science[3], a global movement is underway to secure more ambitious action and to limit the  worst impacts of the fossil fuel economies and societies that have developed in the last 200 years.  

Many will feel the start has been too slow but, in 2019, we can at least see that the international  race to carbon neutrality is underway.  

2. Route map for the carbon neutral journey   Section 7 sets out:

Navigating our path to carbon neutrality will not be easy. There are different routes that might be    how delivery will be governed;

taken, over different time frames; different investments can be made and paid for in different ways.    key financial considerations; and

The impact of any programme of decarbonisation on other social, economic and environmental

priorities will be significant and will vary in different communities and places, and over time.    considerations for our energy markets.

This strategy acknowledges the complexity inherent in trying to decarbonise our society and    Section 8 concludes the strategy and sets out key next steps.

economy. Instead of proposing a simple menu of policies, it presents the strategic groundwork

Each part of the strategy is underpinned by the available technical evidence base, which will be necessary to undertake a thorough shared conversation about how best to proceed, together,

published alongside this strategy on gov.je/climateemergency.

over the long term.

This strategic framework has the following three parts, which are reflected in the structure of this  document.

Part A Context for the carbon neutral strategy  

 Section 2 sets out the strategic context for the carbon neutral strategy. It signposts to current  

scientific evidence and summarises Jersey s existing international obligations and energy  policy;

 Section 3 sets out the defining principles that will shape our carbon neutral journey.

Part B Planning and developing a long-term climate action plan  

 Section 4 sets out:

 the proposal for a people-powered approach to deliberating and recommending how  

Jersey should become carbon neutral;

 the policy objectives and rationale behind this approach;    the process to be followed; and  

 the roles and responsibilities of different groups, including a mandate for Jersey s first  

citizens assembly.

 Section 5 presents a high-level review of policies that could drive radical reductions in Jersey s  

emissions by 2030 and summarises key considerations related to offsetting residual emissions.  

Part C Delivering together in 2020  

 Recognising the urgent nature of the climate emergency, Section 6 sets out an initial delivery  

plan of foundation policies that will be implemented in 2020, alongside the development of the  long-term climate action plan.

3. Declaring a climate emergency  Fig. 1 annual on-Island emissions 1990 - 2017

900

In May 2019, the States of Jersey Assembly voted to agree P.27/2019, and

800

declare that[1]:

700

there exists a climate emergency likely to have profound effects  600

in Jersey, and that in order to deal with this situation... 500 ETrnaenrsgpyoSrtupply

Residential Business

400

Agriculture Jersey should aim to be carbon-neutral by 2030, and the  Waste Management

300

Land Use Change Council of Ministers is accordingly requested to draw up a plan  Grand Total

200

to achieve this, for presentation to the States by the end of 2019

100

0

This carbon neutral strategy responds to P.27/2019 and builds on the progress made through the  -100

energy plan, Pathway 2050.

In March 2007, the UKs ratification of the Kyoto Protocol was extended to the Bailiwick of Jersey.

The protocol requires Jersey to reduce its carbon emissions by 80% by 2050, relative to 1990

levels. In 2014, the States Assembly adopted the energy plan for Jersey detailing a set of actions

designed to help Jersey achieve the 80% emission reduction target.  P.27/2019 also set out that:

Jersey has already made progress in implementing the 2014 Energy Plan, and emissions have  the Minister for the Environment is requested to carry out, as been reduced by 47% relative to the levels in 1990. The figure below illustrates the emissions

pathway since 1990.  part of the process for drawing up the forthcoming Government

Plan for 2020, an examination and assessment of more

Tanhde uanddoeprtepdin Ethniesr wgyo rPkl.a Wn phiolsli tc tiehis s  a sdtrd ar tees gs yin fog c a uff so er sd aobni lbituyi ladnind g s te hc eu fr oit uy nodf aetnioenr sg yfo or f l  os nu gp -p telyr  mre main  ambitious policies to accelerate carbon reduction. This will change; it also includes a 2020 delivery plan that continues many of the agreed action statements  include an assessment of the use of fiscal levers to change

from the energy plan, and implements them over an accelerated timescale.  behaviour and raise awareness.

The Chief Minister is requested to ensure that consideration of action to tackle climate change in Jersey is included as a standing item on the agenda of the Council of Ministers.

12 Carbon Neutral Strategy  / Introduction Carbon Neutral Strategy  13

The strategy responds in the following ways: Establishing a

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 The review of ambitious policies is set out in Section 5; carbon neutral strategy policy (STP), published alongside this report, sets a range of initial plans and an ambitious future

vision of,

 a transport system that makes our everyday lives better,

supports businesses, encourages us and our children to be

healthier and makes our Island greener, today and for tomorrow.

Working with the STP, this carbon neutral strategy sets the context for how we seek to deliver our

transport vision in future years.

[1]14 Carbon Neutral Strategy  / Establishing a carbon neutral startegy 14 Carbon Neutral Strategy  / Establishing a carbon neutral startegy 15

2 Context for the carbon   Itna rDgeetcse. mJebresre 2y 0b1e5c, athmee P a a  rs ii sg Ana gt ro er ey m toe  ntht ew Daso haad  oa pmtee dn ,d pmroe pnotsing a set of stricter carbon reduction neutral strategy stThuhebesplearoqtecuseets nsstc lyfioerrnertqaifiutciefiecs avteitdidoe  nt nh oca eft it nthete ells  rP n ua asr ti is oth  naaagt lr te choeenm pvereen nvt t  iii oos u  ne ssx .e temn idsse 6id o t  n oto s t  hrJ e ee d r Ks u ye c oy ti t  o oth n pr o t ra ou r tg g oh e c  t ot sh l  e a in  rUe 2 Kn 0  o 1in 8t  l ain ne d  w hi ath s

ambitious enough to stabilise the climate and reduce the negative impacts of climate change.

In October 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a report that was two years in the production and included the assessment of more than 6,000 scientific

This section builds on the Initial Report on Tackling the Climate Emergency[2] published by the  studies. It gathered all the available scientific literature and laid out two future scenarios: one in Council of Ministers in July 2019. It sets out some of the key considerations that inform the  which the Earth s average temperature increases by 1.5 C above pre-industrial temperatures (since proposals set out in this strategy.  around 1850); and one in which it increased by 2 C.

2.1  Global scientific context  The report concluded that we are on track to reach 1.5 C between 2030 and 2052 if temperatures continued to increase at the current rate, and 3 C by the end of the century. Once we hit 2 C

In March 2007, the UKs ratification of the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework  warming, the world will be a profoundly different place. There will be almost no coral reefs Convention on Climate Change was extended to the Bailiwick of Jersey. The protocol requires  remaining, the Arctic will be completely devoid of ice during summer at least once a decade, and a Jersey to reduce its on-Island ( scope 1 ) carbon emissions by 80% by 2050, relative to 1990 levels.  huge number of animals and plants will become extinct as their habitats decrease. The IPCC also

concluded that it was extremely likely that most of the observed increase in global temperature Fig. 1 shows how, by 2012, Jersey had managed to achieve a 28% reduction in carbon emissions  since the 1950s is due to human activity.

relative to 1990 levels. This reduction was primarily a result of switching from on-Island electricity

generation to a supply of low carbon electricity imported from France. The impact for humans of future temperature rises will be enormous, particularly in areas already

vulnerable to rising sea levels. The IPCC warn that sea level rise will drive millions from their

Fig. 1 annual on-Island emissions 1990 - 2017 homes, and crop yields will fall dramatically in sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central and

South America.

900 Jersey is already planning for the impact of sea level rise and has prepared a Shoreline

800 Management Plan7, which models the impact of sea water flooding, and sets a range of policies to 700 manage the different parts of the Island s coast over the next 100 years.

600

Energy Supply

500 To stay below the 1.5 C target, and avoid the impacts of 2 C temperature rise, the IPCC advised

Transport

Residential

400 that unprecedented changes will be needed, requiring serious effort at every level of society.

Business

Agriculture

Waste Management

200 Understanding greenhouse gas emissions

300

Land Use Change

Grand Total

100 As part of international emissions reporting, all greenhouse gasses are calculated and reported

0 as carbon equivalents, using a range of agreed formula. For the purposes of this report reference -100 to carbon emissions also includes emissions from other greenhouse gases. The six main

greenhouse gases (GHG) are:

 Methane (CH4);

 Carbon dioxide (CO2);

 Nitrous oxide (N2O);

 Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs);

 Perfluorocarbons (PFCs); and

 Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6).

Scope 3 describes the emissions associated with the manufacture and transport of

the goods and services consumed in Jersey. This includes the full life cycle emissions throughout a supply chain (including those associated with end

of life recycling and/or disposal) and emissions arising from global activities 18% 7% of Jersey businesses. Scope 3 emissions are driven by the choices and

56% 13% 6% behaviours of Jersey residents and businesses but are accounted for as scope

1 emissions in the country in which they were generated. Obvious examples of scope 3 emissions include those from:

  energy used to manufacture the phones, cars and computers we buy;  the burning of marine diesel when shipping food to Jersey; and

  any aviation fuel consumed when people from Jersey fly, where that fuel

was not taken on-board at Jersey Airport.

Carbon Dioxide Supporting documents are published alongside this strategy[1] that explain in more detail how Methane Jersey s local and global emissions are scoped and accounted for. These documents help to make CFCs clear the evidence that underpins decisions made by the Council of Ministers in respect of scope 1,

2 and 3 emissions. Most of this work has been co-commissioned by the Government of Jersey and Ozone the States of Guernsey, which have agreed to take a joint approach to development of a shared

Nitrous oxide technical evidence base.

As well as different greenhouse gases, it is necessary to distinguish the different scope of emissions that is being considered. There are three key areas discussed in this strategy:

Scope 1 emissions are the direct emissions generated from on-Island activities.

Examples include the emissions that come from burning oil or gas to heat buildings, or emissions from driving petrol or diesel vehicles. Our international obligations currently extend only to our scope 1 emissions which are monitored, independently validated and reported on an annual basis via Aether8.

Scope 2 emissions are those arising from the generation of any imported energy. In the

case of Jersey this includes the 95% of our electricity that we import. Global emissions accounting considers the emissions from energy production to accrue to the country in which it is generated (in this case, France), but it is clear that the emissions are the result of energy use in Jersey.

18 Carbon Neutral Strategy  / 2.1 Global scientific context Carbon Neutral Strategy  / Establishing a carbon neutral startegy 19

2.2.  Policy Context

Climate change impacts on all aspects of policy. The context in which this carbon neutral strategy is set is therefore extremely wide-ranging and the inter-relationships between the plans set out in this document and wider aims and objectives are necessarily complex and will evolve over time. This section sets out a summary of a small number of key strategic issues that have significant policy implications for the carbon neutral strategy.

Future Jersey

The Future Jersey community vision, published in March 2018, sets out a range of priorities across ten social, environmental and economic areas. It presents an aspirational vision for how people want Jersey to develop in the coming years.

Future Jersey is clear that people in Jersey are concerned about climate change and want to see and support more action.

Long-term strategic framework

The Council of Ministers has agreed that Jersey needs to pursue a long-term strategic approach that ensures that decisions taken in the short and medium-term work towards creating a sustainable society, a sustainable economy and a strong partnership between a modern government, responsible businesses, Jersey s stakeholders and Islanders.

This is important, because many of the changes that Jersey needs to make will only bear fruit over a long-term timeframe. Decisions on whether, when and where to invest in infrastructure, for instance, will benefit Islanders over decades, not just years.

We have made significant progress in supporting and setting a strategic framework, which brings together the relationship between the ambitions of a new long-term Island Plan and practical actions that will be set out in the medium-term Government Plan. This includes early consideration of how best to meet the requirement of the new Public Finances Law to consider and plan for the long-term sustainable wellbeing of Islanders.

Common Strategic Policy

The Common Strategic Policy[1], setting out the Council of Ministers five strategic priorities of this term of office, was agreed unanimously by the States Assembly in December 2018. This carbon neutral strategy impacts each of the strategic priorities, as outlined below.

We will protect and value   Ambitious contribution to global carbon our environment by embracing reduction targets

environmental innovation and ambition,

  Investing in environmental enhancement

by protecting the natural environment

and restoration, recognising the value and contribution of biodiversity and natural carbon sinks on-Island.

through conservation, protection,

sustainable resource use and demand

management, and by improving the built

  Creation of liveable places and spaces through

environment, to retain the sense of place,

links with the sustainable transport policy and Island Plan.

culture and distinctive local identity.

Put children first

Improve islanders wellbeing and mental and physical health

protect and

value our

environment CLIMATE

EMERGENCY

reduce income  create a inequality and  sustainable,

improve the  vibrant economy standard of  and skilled local

living workforce for the future

Government Plan Fig. 2 annual on-island emissions 1990 - 2017

The Government Plan 2020-23[1], is a rolling four-year plan. It integrates business planning with the  900

necessary funding framework, and replaces the Medium-Term Financial Plan. It sets out how public

800

money will be spent to deliver the day-to-day business of government and on strategic priorities

and areas for improvement. The plan includes commitments that government will: 700

  act with energy and pace to respond to the climate emergency, and become a sustainable

600

low-carbon Island; and

  establish a Climate Emergency Fund, with an initial allocation of £5 million and additional funds 500 Business as usua from annual increases in fuel duty. Historica emissions

400 Reduction target Future Government Plans will in turn respond to the long-term climate action plan developed in  With Interventions 2020.  300

Island Plan

200

Preparation has begun on the new Island Plan 2021-30, which will be developed during 2020. It  100

will replace the current Island Plan, which is predominantly a spatial land-use plan, guiding planning

0

decisions. The Island Plan doesn t just govern where buildings can and can t be built, it determines

how we ll protect our natural environment; it shapes the Island that our children will grow up in, the

places and communities in which we ll grow older; and how we support Jersey s changing needs.

Climate Change is identified as a key strategic issue for the new Island Plan, and it is anticipated  The trajectory of historic emissions (dark green line) demonstrate that Jersey has made good that the Island Plan Review will be bold in providing the strategic planning framework for the  progress in reducing emissions since 1990. This is primarily due to the transition from heavy fuel Climate Emergency and will consider how technologies that can support the Island s transition to a  oil power generation in the Island to imported electricity. Around 70% of our imported electricity low carbon future can be accommodated.  is nuclear generated, and around 30% is certified renewable generation from the tidal barrage

at La Rance. Carbon emissions associated with the production of electricity used in Jersey are Creating good quality places, which nurture strong communities, is a priority, as is continuing to  accounted for in France.

support a sustainable Island economy.

Pathway 2050, proposed 27 targeted actions to:

Pathway 2050 an energy plan for Jersey   reduce energy demand;

TJehres eSyta12t. es Assembly, in 2014, agreed a carbon reduction plan, Pathway 2050 An Energy Plan for   ensure energy security and resilience; and

  ensure energy was affordable.

In line with our Kyoto obligations, successful implementation of the polices in Pathway 2050

should deliver the projected reduction in scope 1 emissions shown by the yellow line on the graph  Nearly 70% of the total reduction in greenhouse gas emissions was planned to come from the below; nearly 80% lower than 1990 levels by 2050. Without any policies to reduce emissions,  following four policies:

conservative projections are that emissions will follow a business as usual trajectory indicated by

the red line.  applying energy-efficient measures to houses built before 1997;

  increasing the number of ultra-low emission vehicles on Jersey roads;

  the received benefit of improved EU emissions standards for traditional cars; and

  energy efficiency improvements in the private sector.

Pathway 2050 was the product of several years research and development. Without the underpinning analysis that informs it, and the learning accrued in recent years from the policy capability that has been funded to implement it, it would not have been possible to prepare this

carbon neutral strategy in time to meet the end of 2019 deadline set by the States Assembly.  The Government Plan also provides additional funding for adapting to climate change, including Accordingly, the 2020 delivery plan set out in Appendix 4 recommends the continuation of many  funding for a series of measures to improve the protection offered to natural habitats and species. of the agreed actions, over an accelerated timescale.  New partnerships and approaches will be supported to explore indicators of connectedness to

nature and support for initiatives to improve connectedness, such as Wild about Jersey , eco Similarly it has not been possible, or at this stage necessary, to revisit the policies of affordability  active, volunteer activities and citizen science; alongside improved access to the countryside and

and security of energy of supply set out in Pathway 2050. Further work in these areas will continue  wild places through investment in country access infrastructure and the National Park.

and will be set out in the long-term climate emergency action plan brought to the States Assembly

in 2020.  Additional scientific research into Jersey s marine environment will be undertaken. This is an area

of both local and international focus, for example on the blue economy , blue carbon , species P.88/2017 protection, marine plastics, fisheries management and fisheries agreements (in particular during

and beyond Brexit).

In 2018, an independent study[1] was undertaken in response to part (b) of P.88/2017 to consider

the introduction of a standby charge by Jersey Electricity for embedded energy generators. Part  The challenge of invasive and non-native species arriving in Jersey as a result of climate change (b) required to research into the implications of such charges for the competitiveness of the  is also addressed. The aim is to prevent their further advancement and establishment where market for the generation and supply of electricity in Jersey . possible, particularly with regard to Asian hornets, sea squirts and Japanese knotweed.

The report and findings provide the basis for carrying out two other pieces of work which inform  Population and migration

the strategic context of the climate emergency response and implementation of this strategy.

These are firstly, the development of a policy position on renewable energy, grid investment  The Migration Policy Development Board was set up to develop comprehensive migration policy and Jersey Electricity s tariff structure; and secondly, the update of the Electricity (Jersey) 1937  proposals which will deliver more responsive controls over who can come to live, work and access Law. It is recognised that this is a substantial and far-reaching piece of work that will require very  public services in Jersey, improving consistency wherever practical and helping to reduce the careful consideration and wide stakeholder consultation before proposals can be bought before  Island s reliance on inward migration.

the Assembly. Outstanding work to respond to P88/2017 will be brought within the scope of this

strategy, as set out in section 7. The Migration Policy Development Board published an interim report14 summarising its research

surrounding migration controls and how any changes could be used to help reduce the Island s Adapting to climate change  reliance on inward migration. The findings of the board will be published in early 2020 and will

form an important part of the future strategic context for climate change.

Regardless of the approach we take to becoming carbon neutral, Jersey will have to adapt to

the existing inevitable effects of climate change. These include increased flood risk, temperature  Economic context

increases resulting in overheating, changes to weather patterns and the arrival of new non-native

or invasive species. Adapting to these impacts will be addressed by a range of other strategies  The prosperity of our Island, and the funding of the services on which we rely, depends on a

and policies. sustainable, vibrant and inclusive economy, underpinned by a skilled local workforce to serve it.

We will need to consider how our economy needs to respond and adapt to the climate emergency.

We have already started to take action to prepare for the impacts of climate change. The Jersey

Shoreline Management Plan (SMP), published in January 2020, details the management intent for  Jersey has a rich economic history, based on fisheries, agriculture, tourism and the now dominant the Island s coastline over the next 100 years (up to 2120) to prevent and manage the effects of  financial sector. As such we have little carbon intensive industry apart from on-Island back up coastal erosion and flooding. The impact of climate change on rising sea levels over time has been  power generation and some quarrying and reprocessing activity (see Fig. 3, below). We have assessed, and the plan considers risks to the community, environment and economy of Jersey. It  successfully maintained all these sectors within our economy, and recognise their importance in takes into account the coastal defences that are around the Island and assesses how they might  our shared history, culture and prosperity.

need to be improved to provide better protection where needed.  The financial and professional services sector has been the bedrock of our economy over recent The risk of coastal erosion and flooding has been assessed for the next 100 years using hydraulic  decades. This means that Jersey has an extensive global reach in terms of the nature, influence

modelling, historic maps and beach surveys to identify the areas of the coastline which are likely  and impact of its economic activity across the world, necessarily underpinned by regular off-Island to flood and where erosion is likely to occur. Coastal flood risk from still water levels and wave  travel. Many of the leading businesses in this sector recognise both the environmental benefits overtopping is shown on Island-wide flood maps.  and potential competitive advantage of pursuing ambitious carbon neutral programmes. There are

opportunities to support, work with and learn from these businesses in developing and delivering The SMP proposes management options over three time periods over the next 100 years. The  of our long-term climate action plan.

best option for the shoreline, nearby communities and infrastructure is proposed. This makes

it easier for the Government of Jersey to plan how to put improvements in place. The SMP

management options and flood risk maps will be used to inform the development of the Island Plan

during 2020.

26 Carbon Neutral Strategy  / Establishing a carbon neutral startegy Carbon Neutral Strategy  / 2.2 Policy Context 27

Fig.3 Gross Value Added (GVA) by sector

Gross Value Added by sector (constant 2018 values)

Financial services

Rental income of private 6.7% households

Other business activities 39.2% (excluding rental)

7.1%

Public administration 8.7% Construction

Wholesale & retail 11.2%

15.1% Hotels, restaurants & bars

Transport, storage and communication

[1]28 Carbon Neutral Strategy  / Our defining principles Carbon Neutral Strategy  / Our defining principles 29

3 Our defining principles 3.1  Principle 1

We will adopt a strategic focus on all emissions

This carbon neutral strategy, and the long-term climate action plan that we will develop

together in 2020, will recognise and have a strategic focus on Jersey s scope 1, 2 and 3 This section sets out a series of principles that establish the scope of the emissions addressed by  emissions16.

this carbon neutral strategy, define carbon neutrality for Jersey, establish priorities and underpin

the people-powered approach that we will take to agree and implement future policies and  It is important that we understand the impact our local choices have across the world, programmes.  including recognising the impact that Jersey based businesses can have.

Each principle has been considered and agreed separately and in their collective form by  3.2  Principle 2

the Council of Ministers. The principles have also been shared and considered by the multi

stakeholder energy forum[2].  We will work within a definition of carbon neutrality

Members of the States Assembly endorse the principles when adopting this strategy. Together,  Carbon neutral is defined as balancing the scope 1 and 2 emissions we produce against the principles set the initial parameters necessary to begin our shared future conversation about a  any activity that captures, absorbs or reduces global emissions so that they are equal. By low carbon future.  including scope 2 emissions we are exceeding our international legal obligations.

The overarching carbon reduction target of the Pathway 2050 energy plan was based on the  Scope 3 emissions are recognised, and the long-term climate action plan will include principles of using secure, affordable sustainable energy. It provided a policy framework to  policies and programmes to support people, businesses and government to make more recognise that secure and affordable energy underpins economic growth and contributes to social  sustainable choices that reduce Scope 3 emissions created on our behalf across the world, equity. but Scope 3 emissions do not form part of the baseline for carbon neutrality.

The agreed policies of affordability and security of supply as set out in the energy plan form part of  3.3  Principle 3 the definition used in this strategy in addition to the five principles.

We will require high standards in the use of carbon offsetting

1. It is appropriate to use carbon offsetting where emissions cannot be abated, but offsets on their own are not a route to carbon neutral and should only be used where they are accompanied by a robust and ambitious measures to reduce emissions.
2. As a responsible and ambitious jurisdiction any offset arrangements that Jersey enters into will be of the highest recognised standards.

4. Principle 4

We will make sure that everyone can play their part

Whole Island ownership of the climate challenge is critical to its success. Government will use all available options to deliver the long-term climate action plan, but government action must form part of a wider, collaborative approach.

5. Principle 5

We will make sure that carbon neutrality policies do not overall increase income inequality.

The impacts of all carbon neutral policy options will be assessed to ensure a just transition to carbon neutrality. A quantification of the economic impact assessment of the policy proposals will be carried out as part of the process of developing the long-term climate

30 Carbon Neutral Strategy  Carbon Neutral Strategy  / Planning and developing a long-term climate action plan 31

Planning and  4 A people-powered Bclimate action plan Gai4TeariGrcnfeehshniwossg.vooeo1emvpieurinuencdoclegagaesrlenmintrehmsoprdemAWia..bArsetoaTIottyesmetootofhehcrncaa. wppspelbatrConcieuleveionhhdciembhtletf eaisihaabl ieclieooeosmeocn-rvsarutigIiaguegnpoocasorlanigee yrwsnltluletl aohnsi egoopnstmpiccnswsyveieo-anuypa, isedroeptulsasotiortspecsrthnherooautomltphidaesapiarwmwnewecsun. igstanrhomaTtenltl csbieooegthrytomucleiovbs ayeisnrnseelaarlttoeh aaeiholsrskltsaulneiaeetceehdpsaotdpnahrc  sin,teo, od appthss dianacrlollelhltooateionasnda pamywc odnhrrrfdadd niiigeptabffvntol tea hereetghtmioe ri asnes,olr oydct ceehfonbahorr kafnrbuaaabierkblcpnotma ittegneeecplweusaeh igtarsio mrcs hosaatteul tthictfyviao hi h  tet aoaisciinsn ereo  crnltiiadwibn anuaema cpa  llorcetnlgo e aiotatnf meaduio tcuanot eiamr naanpdmnttgb etnhnccul eelaeeauuee hodr ak-ct es tanrbepll re oi ltgonmtaanaoh.ignc gvalle eew ecoeaialvessernhetmllma. gseovlriciieeneileecbecaas yvv naldinbvt  ofeacla iodlocaillell yn envornpihc 1ddse 7vtng pe : hi ia  edsea sor se li .lo a.nr knlwtg easIcehnetpiac elanyccl nha n te angt i c otgswns oieea v ls teoe uitaa sbi n  bsorwen eecayndi o lcls fitl aeu  ht; rf icos rmera atttln ao legtosd airn  itwnsx  e ,g p  

developing a long-term   approach

necessary to discuss and agree plans and shared actions. There is a clear commitment from the States Assembly, through this strategy, to use these and other means to help tackle the climate emergency.

Government action though must form part of a wider, collaborative approach. Our initial report made clear that the Government would:

Explore opportunities to put individual citizen and community

action at the heart of our response, creating the conditions in

which bottom-up initiatives flourish and Islanders support each

other to change their behaviours and adapt to lower carbon

lifestyles.

17 https://www.gov.je/Government/Pages/StatesReports.aspx?ReportID=4762

That is why, for the first time in Jersey and ahead of many other jurisdictions we are making  4.2  The elements of the people-powered approach

a firm commitment to putting people-power at the heart of our approach to tackling the climate

emergency. This open, inclusive approach goes far beyond consulting on plans that have  The people-powered approach follows an understanding of the different aspects of, and

been prepared on behalf of Islanders, or workshopping ideas about how to implement existing  accountability for, good decision making. This understanding is based on a model developed by strategies. It is a bold and wide-ranging commitment to share with local people the responsibility  global management consultants, Bain and Company[1], as re-imagined for participatory decision to design our ambition for the future and the policies and programmes that can see us achieve it.  making by the New Citizenship Project[2] which describes the following stages:

From crowd-sourcing policy ideas, to engaging in a formal, Island-wide citizens assembly or taking

part in designing and implementing community action plans, Jersey will lead the way in developing

a people-powered response to the climate emergency.    providing input: this might include ideas, experience, information or views (which may or

may not be reflected in the final proposals);

 recommending one or more decisions or actions, based on the input received;  deciding which of these recommendations to follow and proposing a plan;

 agreeing to the proposed course of action; and

 performing, together, to deliver the agreed course of action.

The people-powered approach reinforces the importance of government, elected politicians and citizens (including businesses as corporate citizens) working side by side in the roles that they are best suited to. These suggested roles are set out in detail, across each stage of the participatory process, in the table at Appendix 3.

There is a need for robust scrutiny by the States Assembly, media, and social media and ongoing debate and decision making throughout the process. Citizen participation and deliberation is designed to enhance and support existing democratic institutions and norms and all decision- making power remains with elected representatives in the States Assembly.

Parish and other community governance and engagement will also play a key role. Drawing on

the honorary tradition, and recognising the parish assembly as an institution rooted in direct democracy, the people-powered approach provides an opportunity to catalyse local community planning and action, to give all Islanders a clear role and to begin to address climate change from the grassroots. Support will be available through eco active to support parishes and community groups to build an infrastructure of local delivery and, where they wish, to agree community action plans so that people across the Island can play their part in tackling the climate emergency.

34 Carbon Neutral Strategy  / Planning and developing a long-term climate action plan Carbon Neutral Strategy  35

3. Why we need to start with people-power

The science of climate change is not new. Governments, businesses and civil society across the world have made significant commitments to addressing the drivers of climate change for several decades.

Despite these commitments and the associated efforts of many, progress has been slow and hard to achieve. There are many reasons for this:

  the use of hydrocarbon technologies is deeply woven into the fabric of our daily lives

and underpins our economy and society;

  there are an abundance of policies that might be implemented, uncertainty about

future technologies and on-going disagreement about where to invest and at what pace ;

  the scale of the challenge and lack of progress to date can itself be a barrier to

action[1];

  despite international frameworks for action, climate change especially in a small jurisdiction like Jersey is a text book example of the free-rider problem[2]; and

  the costs and benefits of climate change are inter-generational: future generations

will pay the cost of the choices we make today and (perhaps a greater challenge) concerted action requires current tax payers to bear the costs of investing for the benefit of those not yet born.

Each of these characteristics alone presents a barrier to taking collective action. Together, they present a uniquely difficult challenge to the way we discuss and make decisions on public matters, both in Jersey and across the world. While we have made good progress in implementing existing policies, the challenge to achieve carbon neutrality requires us to think and act differently and to share power and responsibility more widely.

Given these challenges, it is no surprise that governments across the world are looking to work more closely with people in response to climate change. In the UK at least 11 local authorities have implemented citizens assemblies, in places such as Camden, Oxford and Leeds, and six Parliamentary Select Committees recently launched a citizens assembly to consider a pathway to carbon neutrality.

Our people-powered approach incorporates a major citizens assembly, but also includes other participatory processes that will give a wider group of people the opportunity to be involved in setting out ideas and taking action to tackle climate change.

4. What are the benefits of a people-powered approach?

There are good reasons to take a people-powered approach to defining, designing and delivering  A rich public discussion about these issues should improve the quality of our our carbon neutral ambition in Jersey. These are set out below to show the intention behind this  carbon neutral strategy, by;

way of working.   increasing the range of ideas that policy makers and local communities can draw In developing this approach we have drawn on the wide range of learning from innovative  on in deciding how best to act,

programmes that have in recent years explored how best to develop public policy and   increase understanding about the potential impact and implications of policy programmes on a collaborative basis. These include the UK Cabinet Office Open Policy Making  options; and

Model[1], NESTA work on people-powered public services[2], the OECD Open Government

programme[3] and a range of international approaches to applying design practice to public policy   helping Islanders understand the intention behind policies and how they fit into development[4].  the larger, shared journey towards carbon neutrality.

Benefit 1:

Benefit 3:

By working with people, we hope to increase the public s sense of ownership of

Jersey s carbon neutral journey and their commitment to the changes it requires By working with people we increase the chances that carbon neutrality can become a focal point for increased public engagement and civic action; over time,

this increased activity should strengthen social bonds and may increase trust in Giving people a say over the level and timing of our carbon neutral ambition is key to encouraging  public institutions

this sense of ownership. People will be at the heart of identifying the best steps to take to deliver

our ambition but they will also be asked what they think about the pace and nature of the

transition to a low carbon future.  The importance of social capital in building strong communities is widely recognised.

This sense of ownership is a key foundation for a long-term shift in behaviours. Evidence from  Jersey has strong local communities and a historic tradition of parish assembly and debate. behavioural economics[5] supports the idea that making a clear public commitment to achieve  Drawing on these foundations, the Island is well placed to put participatory approaches to policy something can significantly increase the likelihood that the achievement is sustained.  making at the heart of the carbon neutral journey.

An extensive public engagement exercise should help facilitate large scale public commitment  In contrast to these deep roots of community participation, Jersey under performs in comparison to to tackling climate change in Jersey. If successful, this should act as a protective factor and  its peers on many modern indicators of civic engagement27.

foundation for sustainable change over the coming years.

Evidence from other deliberative processes shows that they can increase political efficacy

in both participants and non-participants28. Pursuing a people-powered approach to carbon Benefit 2: neutrality, including a formal citizens assembly and extensive local community engagement and

activity, should create new opportunities for people to understand the institutions and systems of Working with people will improve the quality of our long-term climate action plan: governance on the Island and may over time help increase trust in public institutions.

Our approach will open the process of:

  considering what our carbon neutral ambition should be;

  considering what opportunities exist to reduce and sequester carbon on-Island,

and to develop our international offset programme; and

  exploring people s opinions.

5. Timeline for the people-powered process The Government has published a range of evidence alongside this carbon neutral strategy, and further information and advice materials will be provided online throughout the input phase.

This section outlines the different phases of the people-powered approach that will run throughout

2020. The key phases overlap and are summarised in the diagram below. Recommend Citizens Assembly (April-July)

The strategy invites the States Assembly to call a citizens assembly to explore key issues related States Assembly Debate Strategy to the nature and pace of Jersey s transition to carbon neutrality.

Dec 2019 Feb - Sept Apr - Jul Jul - Oct Autumn Ongoing The mandate (set out at Appendix 3) was agreed in adopting P12/2019 and, a citizens assembly

will; be convened that will; be tasked to respond to the question How should we work together to become carbon neutral? ; and to produce a report including recommendations, that will be shared with the States Assembly and the Government.

Strategy Input Reccommend Decide Agree Deliver

The mandate provides that the citizens assembly should consider:

  the implications and trade-offs of a range of scenarios for achieving carbon neutrality and Input phase (February September)

  when and how a full transition to zero (or almost zero) emissions in key sectors might be This phase is launched by the Government, which will pose the question,  achieved.

This includes considering alternative deadlines for carbon neutrality, and for zero carbon, that might fall before or after 2030.

 How should we

work together to  The citizens assembly will be supported by independent trained facilitators, who will help the become carbon  assembly deliberate key issues in a way that promotes critical thinking and consensus. Logistical neutral? athned coittihzeern ss u apspsoermt wbliyll. also be provided by the States Greffe. This will include a dedicated clerk to

The report of the citizens assembly will be published and sent to all States Members. Ministers will respond to the report and take any recomendations into account in the decide phase.

An Island-wide call for ideas begins, which is anchored in the following ways:

Decide (July October)

  An ideas website will be launched and widely promoted. The website will allow anyone to

suggest an initiative or policy idea. Events will be held to help people engage with the process The Government will prepare and propose a long-term climate action plan that draws on: and to encourage schools, businesses, faith and community groups and others to take up and

ask the question, directing ideas and responses to the website, written responses will also be  the policy framework and principles for carbon neutrality set out in this strategy; welcomed;  the recommendations and report of the citizens assembly;

  parishes will be invited to build on their early action to lead community climate action networks  the existing evidence base, further planned studies and any additional research available at

involving local people and businesses. Eco active will continue to provide support and advice that time;

to these networks, and strong ideas that emerge from this work will be considered for future

investment from the climate emergency fund;  community and youth climate action plans; and

  an Island-wide youth engagement programme will begin, working with the youth service,  suggestions from the input phase, where appropriate.

schools and youth groups to develop a climate emergency youth action plan, strong ideas

from which will be considered for future investment from the climate emergency fund; and The long-term climate action plan will set out a clear target date for carbon neutrality and the range

of policies, including fiscal measures, required to deliver that ambition.

  the eco active business network will work together to understand the range of ways they are

responding to the climate emergency and new ways they might contribute to a carbon neutral The Government will also publish a response to the citizens assembly. This will set out where future. recommendations are accepted and how they will be implemented. Where the Government does

40 Carbon Neutral Strategy  / Planning and developing a long-term climate action plan Carbon Neutral Strategy  / How might we make progress towards carbon neutrality 41

njuostt ipfircoaptioosne w toill  i bm ep gle ivm ee nn . t  a recommendation of the citizens assembly a clear and reasoned  5 How might we make Agreement (Autumn) progress towards carbon

AsAcsfrsuueltli,mn Isibslaelyndadbs-wya  it  dhre eep  pSo utrabt t lae icns d cA ops nsr soe upmlo tabs tli iyt oi.o nnw. ill be held on the final proposed plan. The plan will be   neutrality?

Following any amendments, the long-term climate action plan will be presented in the States

Upon agreement, any policies to be given effect via the planning system may be brought as

amendments to the draft Island Plan, and any measures requiring funding in 2021 may be brought

as amendments to the Government Plan.  The primary focus of this section is on policy scenarios that could make significant progress Delivery phase  towards carbon neutrality, defined as balancing the scope 1 and 2 emissions we produce against

any activity that captures, absorbs or reduces global emissions so that they are equal.

Upon adoption, a range of policies will be implemented and further developed for agreement.

The request for a carbon neutral strategy by the end of 2019 necessarily means that only a first A collaborative approach to delivering these new policies and programmes, that builds on the  phase of analysis has been completed[1]. In this first phase, the most significant questions in established local plans and networks, will bring together all stakeholders on an on-going basis.  relation to the most significant challenges (reducing emissions from road transport and heating)

have been considered; this does not preclude further policy research in other areas in the future.

There are two caveats to be kept in mind when considering this section:

  The measures explored are not policy proposals for Jersey, they are illustrative scenarios

based on an analysis of politics in place in other jurisdictions; and

  The identified costs are the costs to Government of the policy scenarios if they were to be

implemented. This is not the same as the cost of the carbon neutrality for Jersey.

The information below is provided to inform discussions about key carbon neutral challenges and to show the type and level of analysis necessary to develop and prioritise a full suite of carbon abatement policies.

5.1  Establishing a baseline for carbon neutrality  Fig.5 Scope 1 emissions by inventory reporting sector

Fig 5. also shows the key sectors in which these emissions arise.

Jersey s Scope 1 greenhouse gas emissions are monitored and reported through the annual

greenhouse gas emissions inventory[1] and the Jersey Energy Trends Report[2]. The information

used to compile the emissions inventory is provided by Government and Island fuel suppliers and  4%

is submitted to UK emissions inventory experts for independent analysis and verification[3]. The

provision of this information is a requirement of the UK s Kyoto reporting, which has been extended

to Jersey. The Jersey inventory is returned for publication 12 months after submission. The time lag

is due to the extensive quality assurance and verification process which is carried out externally to  51% 15% 3% meet international emissions reporting standards.

Transport

TaPrhaotehuwrnindag y3 c52h90a,50r0t0 a 0wt oFtouignld.n 4 es seb eeo lfoo CuwOr sS 2h ec o qo w.p Sse u  t1 ch e ca emt  sci ssu fsr uiroel n in mst  pere lmed mius esc ie no t  nt ao s ti   oafr nr oo mou fn  k td he  ey2  7 aa7 r g, e0 ra e0 s e0  do t f po a on cn lit ce ivis eit  syo  f si  neC t2O o0u e17t q ia . nr e  Energy supply -2% 22%

Business

2 Residential 6%

Fig.4 2017 and 2030 emissions profiles  Agriculture

Waste management

Land use change

Outer ring - 2017 Emissions (359,000 t/CO2)

Inner ring - Projected 2030 emissions after Energy Plan interventions (277,000 t/CO2)

This baseline shows that nearly 90% of Jersey s scope 1 emissions originate from three sources: Gmedasesicfalroums ea ianr cdo nindsiutiloatnoinrsg ,  transport fuels (including land, air and marine transport) and oil and gas used for space heating in

Waste water treatment the business and residential sectors. In line with Principle 2, the Government has commissioned On-Island electricity  research to understand the total scope 2 emissions associated with Jersey s imported electricity.

Agricultural emissions  generation and EfW  Total scope 2 emissions from electricity and their % contribution to the combined emissions for

e.g. from livestock scope 1 and 2 for Jersey are presented in Fig. 6 below.

Air transport In 2017 a total of 3 kt CO eq are associated with imported electricity. This accounts for less than Oil and gas heating in  2

the residential sector  1% (0.8%) of the total scope 1 and 2 emissions for Jersey for 2017. The methodology for estimating

these emissions is described in a supporting document33.

Together, these scope 1 and 2 emissions provide the baseline from which we will aim for carbon neutrality.

Oil and gas heating in

the commercial sector  Transport fuels

(includes government)

Fig.6 Jersey total Scope 1 and 2 emissions 2014-2017 9kt CO2eq)  5.2  Developing long-term policy options

Source: Aether scope 2 emissions report

Principle 2 acknowledges that we are not planning to abate all Jersey s carbon emissions by Jersey total Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions 2014 - 2017 (kt CO2eq)  2030, but rather to make faster progress in abating emissions, alongside the introduction of new

offsetting measures. Together with the profile of Jersey s emissions outlined above, this suggests

that the priority policy actions for carbon neutrality should focus on reducing scope 1 emissions

associated with transport and heating.

The key questions that shape carbon neutral policy and a central focus of the people-powered approach to be followed in 2020 are, therefore:

  what amount of carbon emissions do we want to abate by 2030 and what amount of residual

emissions will we need to offset after this date, both in total and in the transport and heating sectors;

ZZ_Imported Electricity (Scope 2)  2.8  2.9  2.9  3.0   how quickly do we want to reduce and remove those carbon emissions that remain after 2030, Total including scope 2 (imported electricity  419.9  379.1  399.2  368.5  both in total and in the transport and heating sectors; and

emissions)

% of total emissions from imported electricity  0.66%  0.78%  0.73%  0.80%   drawing from these two questions, which policies are most likely to reduce emissions from the

1) Based on new estimates provided by Jersey Electricity using total mass of waste burned for energy and transport and heating sectors and what are the costs and benefits associated with them.

default IPCC emission factors. Jersey Electricity estimates (10.5 kt CO2 eq in 2017) need further exploration

but are significantly lower than the current cruder NAEI based estimates (which are 18 kt CO2eq in 2017).

Jersey total Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions 2014 -2017 (kt CO eq) In other words, considering the challenge of carbon reduction

600.0 2 over the long-term requires us to look both at the point at which

500.0 we become carbon neutral, but also beyond this point, in order

400.0 to understand and plan for what our trajectory to a sustainable

300.0 low-carbon future looks like.

200.0

100.0

Accordingly, the policy research outlined below analyses the options for, and implications of, the

0.0 abatement of emissions from the transport and heating sectors over a range of timescales.

2014 2015 2016 2017

-100.0 This approach ensures that, in line with the expectations of P.27/2019 and in the extremely limited Source: AAJEger tiPchulaeltnturr  e(sFcueo lp/Geas 2 oi e l)missions  BEr usinergyep nesorfstrom Waste (MSW)1 ELanerndgyU seSupCplhaynge time available to produce it, this strategy:

Residential Transport Waste Management

ZZ_Imported Electricity (Scope 2)  illustrates a range of policy scenarios that would deliver against the aim for Jersey to be carbon

neutral by 2030, with a focus on achieving net zero in the road transport and heating sectors, which account for approximately 70% of emissions;

  does not provide policy options or expenditure estimates in relation to abatement or offsets in the rest of the economy of Jersey, which account for approximately 30% of emissions; and

  also provides the range of information necessary for the citizens assembly to undertake its

deliberations.

3. Policy approaches in other jurisdictions

Iceland

To identify the best policy options for Jersey, an analysis of decarbonisation policies in other

jurisdictions has been carried out. Jurisdictions were selected on the basis of having ambitious

carbon reduction plans in place and sharing some legal, political or physical characteristics with  Power generation Transport Heating Jersey, as set out in Fig.6 below.

Ban on registration of  Financial support for conventional vehicles geothermal research

Free EV parking

Investments  in district State enterprises switch to  heating options

Already decarbonised

EVs

VAT exemptions to LEVs

Investments  in cycling lanes and public transport

Electric charging options for

road and marine transport

Road fuel and vehicle tax Biofuel floor aviation sector

Colour-coding: budget impact

Neutralno first-round  effect on budget

Negativeexpenditure  or revenue sacrifice required

Positiveprovides  additional revenue or savings Note: Although the UK is technically as Island economy, it's size and scale of it's economic activity differentiates it considerably from the

other island economy comparators. - Source: Oxera analysis

The diagrams below summarise the decarbonisation policies that have been considered or  

implemented in the jurisdictions listed, particularly in the spheres of power generation, transport  Malta

and heating. The policies are colour-coded according to their effect on public (rather than

household) finances.

Figure 7.1 Summary of policy approaches in other jurisdictions Power generation Transport Heating

Grant schemes for domestic  Subsidy on the conversion  Subsidies for domestic heat France PV systems of vehicles from petrol to  pump heating and solar

Deployment of PV panels on  LPG water heaters Power generation Transport Heating public buildings Grants for buying EVs Grants for solar water Support to technologies that  Reduced registration and  heaters in non-residential

Closure of all coal-fired  Road fuel tax Financial support for  process animal waste excise duty for EVs buildings

power plants by 2022 upgrade of residential  Identification of sites for PV  New EV charging stations Utilisation of smart meters Edcoom-taexs't i oc n a oviuattbioonu nfda reasnd  heating and insulation farms Regulatory requirements to  New tariffs to incentivise

Development of rail and  Subsidies to renewable  increase biofuel use energy efficiency inland waterways sources projects via the  Biofuel floor aviation sector

Heat Fund

Scrappage scheme for the

replacement of older

vehicles

Improvement  of cycling  

paths and new bike parking  

facilities Colour-coding: budget impact

Neutralno first-round  effect on budget

Biofuel floor aviation sector Negativeexpenditure  or revenue  sacrifice required

Positiveprovides  additional revenue  or savings

Colour-coding: budget impact

Neutralno first-round  effect on budget

Negativeexpenditure  or revenue sacrifice required Positiveprovides  additional revenue or savings

Netherlands Sweden

Power generation Transport Heating

Power generation Transport Heating

Closure of all coal fired  Investments  in cycling  Grants for renewable heat

power plants by 2030 routes and bike parking production CO2 taxation Tax exemption to  Aid for conversion to heat environmentally-friendly  cars pumps, solar heating and

Carbon price floor Investments  in EV charging  Ban new houses from  Investment  aid for wind and  biofuels

stations connecting to gas grid PV generation Parking benefits and

Subsidies to produce  Tax exemptions for EVs Electricity certificate trading  exemptions from congestion  Support for production and renewable electricity and  New buildings standards  scheme charges distribution of renewable

gas Incentives to petrol stations  requirements gases

to increase biofuel sales Closure of all coal-fired  staRtioenqsu itroe mofefenrt afot rl epaestrt ool ne  Urban development grants Regulatory support to district  power plants by 2022 renewable energy for district heating

Biofuel supply chain  heat networks

improvements

Research grants to universities and institutes

Biofuel floor aviation sector

Biofuel floor aviation sector

Colour-coding: budget impact Colour-coding: budget impact

Neutralno first-round  effect on budget Neutralno first-round  effect on budget

Negativeexpenditure  or revenue sacrifice required Negativeexpenditure  or revenue  sacrifice required Positiveprovides  additional revenue or savings Positiveprovides  additional revenue  or savings

Norway UK

Power generation Transport Heating Power generation Transport Heating Obligation for minimum  Government grants for EVs Regulation requiring new

Subsidies for R&D in the  Tax exemptions for  Subsidies to energy saving  shares of renewable  homes to be carbon-neutral production of renewable  biodiesel, electric and  practices electricity to suppliers Supplier obligation to

energy hydrogen vehicles provide renewable  Ban fossil-fuelled heating in Fossil-fuel heating  Closure of all coal-fired  alternatives new houses by 2025

Increased 8 transparency on  No parking fees for EVs prohibition by 2020 plants by October 2025

power grid maintenance Mandatory quota for biofuel  Investments  into EV  Grants for energy crop sales Legal standards for heating  Support to investments in  infrastructure production

Continuous update of wind  systems in buildings renewable energy sources

and hydropower planning  Taxes on combustion engine  via CfDs Biofuel floor aviation sector Anaerobic Digestions guidelines vehicles from 2021 Smart meters roll-out for  Demonstration Programme

residential housing Support for small-scale

Electricity certificate trading  Investments  in EV charging  renewable energy

scheme stations production via FITs

Biofuel floor aviation sector Carbon price floor

Colour-coding: budget impact Colour-coding: budget impact

Neutralno first-round  effect on budget Neutralno first-round  effect on budget

Negativeexpenditure  or revenue  sacrifice required Negativeexpenditure  or revenue  sacrifice required Positiveprovides  additional revenue  or savings Positiveprovides  additional revenue  or savings

4. Policy scenarios related to transport Of the measures above, measures T1 and T2 were subjected to the quantitative analysis. Measure T3 was not included, due to uncertainty around technical feasibility, potential carbon savings and The transport sector is the largest emissions source in Jersey, representing 51% of total  the associated costs of the measure35.1.

greenhouse gas emissions according to the latest available statistics[1]. Emissions in this sector are

generated by road transport, aviation and domestic shipping. 5.4.1 Summary of quantitative assessment for the road  Figure 7.2 provides an overview of policies employed in other jurisdictions to reduce emissions  transport sector

from transport. Figure 7.3 below shows a mid-range estimate of the potential costs across measures T1-T2

Fig.7.2 Overview of decarbonisation policies in transport implemented up to 2025, 2027 or 2030 (depending on the scenario) plus the cost of offsetting residual emissions from transport (cost of net zero). This is set against the social cost of carbon,

Road Marine Air which is proxy for the negative impacts of carbon emissions, that would be avoided as a result of Make emissions  Fuel tax the abatement measures36.

more costly Road tax Flight tax

Vehicle tax

Provide eco- Install cycling infra Figure 7.3 - Illustrative costs of net zero measures relative to the avoided social cost

friendly  Public transport investment of carbon in the road transport sector

alternatives Install electric charging points

Make  Public transport subsidy

alternatives  ULEVs subsidies 100 cheaper Scrappage schemes

Enforce a new  BioBfiuoeful eslucpopnlyt esnut bfsloidoires 90 equilibrium Biofuel content floor

Ban on conventional cars

80 Colour-coding: budget impact 70

Neutralno first-round  effect on budget

Negativeexpenditure  or revenue  sacrifice required

Positiveprovides  additional revenue  or savings 60 In Jersey, carbon emissions from road transport amount to 118 kt CO2eq, which accounts for the  50

majority (63%) of the 187 kt CO eq of carbon emissions from transport. It is also a segment within

transport sector over which the 2 Government has a relatively high degree of control (as opposed  40 to marine and air transport, which require international cooperation for successful abatement).

30 Therefore, this phase of analysis focuses on road transport in particular.

20

Based on the approaches adopted in other jurisdictions and taking into account policies already

embedded within the 2014 Energy Plan, the following three measures, described as T1, T2 and T3  10

have been considered:

0

 Measure T1: facilitating the uptake of electric vehicles (EV s), by: 2025 2027 2030

Completion year for abatement measures

1. escalating existing fuel taxes to discourage the use of petrol and diesel vehicles; and

Cost of net zero Avoided social cost of carbon

2. providing financial incentive(s) for the purchase of EVs, either in the form of a purchase

grant, and/or in the form of a scrappage payment for owners of fossil fuel vehicles;

 Measure T2: imposing a ban on the registration of new or second-hand petrol and diesel  Note: The avoided social cost of carbon is calculated using the non-traded cost of carbon, sourced from HM Treasury Green Book guidance. The amount of emission abated is calculated as the difference between the level of emissions under the proposed

vehicles, so that they are gradually replaced by EVs over time. There would be an option to  abatement measures and the level of emissions projected in absence of those measures. The costs of net zero represent the midpoint

exempt diesel vehicles from the ban if they are able to transition to hydrotreated vegetable oil  of the range and include both the present value of the costs of abatement, as well as the present value of the expenditure of offsetting the unabated emissions. Throughout all scenarios it is assumed that unabated emissions are being offset from 2030 onwards. All

(HVO) (T3) while maintaining a sufficiently low emission intensity; and  figures are presented in present value terms, discounted at 3.5%, as per the HM Treasury Green Book guidance. The assessment

period covers the years 2019 50. The expenditure on offsets is estimated using the forecast for the prices of ETS from National Grid.

 Measure T3: facilitating the use of second generation biodiesel (HVO) for all diesel vehicles,

subject to further technical due diligence of the feasibility of such a transition in Jersey. This could involve fuel taxation concessions for HVO[2].

The actual costs associated, particularly with transport measure T1, facilitating the uptake of EVs,  Industry evidence appears to suggest that EVs are likely to reach price parity with conventional may vary significantly depending on the financial incentive(s) offered, the timing of measures  vehicles within the next ten years and, potentially, by as early as 2022. Further investigation would and the extent to which the wider economic and social environment influences people to travel  be needed to understand how closely the Jersey market tracks the wider market and, for example, differently. This range of uncertainty is illustrated by the spread of the bars in Figure 7.4. if there might be any delay in these trends because of the scale of the local market, vehicle

policies or island nature.

Figure 7.4 - Illustrative range of the cost of net zero measures in the road transport

sector Figure 7.5 Industry estimates on the timing of price parity between EVs and

conventional vehicles

160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Predicted year of price parity between fossil- fuel vehicles and EVs

Project Area

McKinsey & Co. U.S. 2025 Deloitte UK 2024 Bloomberg N/A 2024 Bloomberg EU 2022 - 2029

Source: See Bloomberg (2017), When will electric vehicles be cheaper than conventional vehicles? , 12 April, p.5, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/making-electric-vehicles-profitable, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-12/electric-vehicle-battery-shrinks-and-so-does-the-total-cost, https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/uk/Documents/manufacturing/deloitte-uk-battery-electric-vehicles.pdf.

Drawing on the above, Figure 7.6 illustrates the potential future trajectory of emissions from the 2025 2027 2030 road transport sector. The illustration assumes:

Fossil fuel ban introduced by year end

 an average vehicle retirement rate of 10% per year (in line with the modelling conducted for the

2014 Energy Plan37);

Note: The years on the horizontal axis denote the year at the end of which the ban is introduced. The low end of the range assumes no    a doubling of fuel tax, introduced uniformly over 2020 25;

requirement for EV purchase grants and/or scrappage schemes for fossil-fuel vehicles, and an annual vehicle retirement rate of 10% (as

per the modelling conducted for the 2014 Energy Plan, see 2014 Supporting document B for Oxera 07.08.2019.xls, tab transport, cell    a ban on the registration of conventional vehicles instated at the end of 2027 (by which point, B52). For the low end of the range only, the ban on the registration of fossil fuel vehicles is assumed to be 2030 across all the bars. The  as suggested by evidence in Table 5.1, it appears likely that EVs will achieve price parity with high end of the range assumes an adoption of a purchase grant for EVs of £3,500 per vehicle. It is assumed that the EV grant causes

an increasing the standard vehicle retirement rate of 10% for petrol and diesel cars, to 17.5% per year during the functioning of the grant  conventional vehicles); and

scheme (it is assumed that the grant scheme starts in 2020 and terminates with the introduction of the fossil fuel vehicle ban). The costs

of net zero include both the present value of the costs of abatement, as well as the present value of the expenditure of offsetting the    a provision of a £3,500 grant per vehicle (in line with the grant currently offered in the UK38), for unabated emissions. Throughout all scenarios it is assumed that unabated emissions are being offset from 2030 onwards. All costs are

presented in present value terms, discounted at 3.5%, as per the HM Treasury Green Book guidance. The assessment period covers  the purchase of an EV until the end of 2027.

the years 2019 50. The expenditure on offsets is estimated using the forecast for the prices of ETS from National Grid.

As figure 7.4 demonstrates, a more rapid abatement programme (for example, through an earlier implementation of a ban on the registration of fossil-fuel vehicles) can lead to a lower overall cost because funding for financial incentives (measure T1b, financial incentives for EVs) is only required over a shorter period. At the same time, there may be other costs associated with implementing

a ban at such an early date, such as additional support for those less able to afford to purchase a new vehicle, that are not reflected here.

The timing of any ban on registration of new or second-hand fossil fuel vehicles (measure T2) and the degree of financial support required are closely linked to the uptake of ultra-low emissions vehicles in comparison to conventional vehicles.

37 gov.je/climateemergency

38 https://www.gov.uk/plug-in-car-van-grants

Figure 7.6 Evolution of emissions from road transport Figure 7.7 - Illustration of cumulative costs of net zero measures in the road transport

sector

120 100 80 60 40 20 0

...but a favourable scenario with minimal required intervention is also possible, 140

Grant costs  which would allow the achievement of net zero at a relatively low cost

could form a

120 substantial

expenditure

under slow

price

100 80 60 40 20

convergence

of EVs and

conventional

vehicles...

EV Diesel

Petrol

0

The scenario above envisages that following the implementation of the measures, the remaining

emissions from road transport will be driven by:

EV expenditure Offset costs

  emissions from the remaining petrol and diesel vehicle fleet that is yet to be fully depreciated

and replaced; Nofotthee: Tehxep ecnodstitsuoref noef tozffesreot tiinncglu tdhee ubnoathb athteedperemsiesnsito vnaslu. Teh orfotuhgehcooust tasl lo sf caebnaateriomse int t i, s  a as s wsuemll eads tthheat p ur ne as be an tt e vda lue

emissions are being offset from 2030 onwards. All costs are presented in present value terms, discounted at

  the carbon footprint of electricity used to power EVs; and 3.5%, as per the HM Treasury Green Book guidance. The assessment period covers the years 2019 50. The

expenditure on offsets is estimated using the base case forecast for the prices of ETS from National Grid.

  emissions from diesel vehicles that cannot be replaced by an electric substitute[1]. To the extent

that the adoption of HVO proves feasible in Jersey, further emission abatement could be

achieved. In the figure above a large proportion of the identified costs come from offering financial incentives for switching. No alternative assumption has been presented in this figure regarding differing levels

Figure 7.7 illustrates a possible cumulative cost path associated with the implementation of the  of financial incentive. Also, the modelled cost does not net off any revenue raised (either through scenario that underlies Figure 7.6. In comparison, a passive transition by 2050 without Government  measure T1a or any other source). The costs presented in Fig. 7.7 therefore fall at the higher end of incentives, as envisaged in the Pathway 2050 energy plan would cost just under £40 million in  the range presented in Fig 7.4.

cumulative offset payments.

Should the uptake of ultra-low emission vehicles be faster than currently expected, it may be possible to introduce an earlier ban on the registration of fossil fuel vehicles without the need to provide financial support to switching for the same period. In those circumstances, abatement costs would be lower.

5.5.1  Summary of quantitative assessment for the heating sector

5. Policy scenarios related to heating Figure 7.9 presents the total cost of policies to abate heating emissions and the cost of offsetting residual emissions that are not abated (costs of net zero). This is set against the social cost of

Heating is the second largest emissions source in Jersey, representing over 30% of total  carbon that would be avoided as a result of the abatement measures42.

greenhouse gas emissions according to the latest (2017) statistics[1]. This includes emissions

from both domestic and commercial heating. Figure 7.8 summarises policies employed in other  Figure 7.9 - Illustrative costs of net zero measures relative to the avoided social cost jurisdictions to reduce emissions from heating. of carbon in the heating sector

Figure 7.8 - Overview of heating decarbonisation policies 250

Reduce energy consumption Promote alternative energy sources

200 Change  Tax on heating fuel Grants for biofuel/solar heaters

incentives Smart metering schemes Grants for microgeneration

Active demand management schemes Grants for storage (e.g. batteries)

Ban connection to the gas grid 150 Blend renewable gases into existing network

Explore electrification of heating, incl. the

role of battery storage

Promote

Explore the use of low-carbon gases for  alternative 100

heating incl. hydrogen and CCS primary

Subsidise transmission-connected  sources

renewables

Use residual energy in district heating 50 Increase Upgrade existing properties

energy Update building standards

efficiency

0

Colour-coding: budget impact 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Neutralno first-round effect on budget Completion year for abatement measures

Negativeexpenditure or revenue sacrifice required

Positiveprovides additional revenue or savings Costs of net zero Avoided social costs of carbon (central)

For Jersey, electrification appears to have the most significant potential for decarbonisation of

heating. Jersey has high levels of installed interconnection capacity with access to low-carbon

imported electricity and relatively high penetration rates for electricity in the heating sector.  Note: The avoided social cost of carbon is calculated using the non-traded cost of carbon, sourced from HM Electrification reduces carbon emissions in two ways:  Treasury Green Book guidance. The amount of emission abated is calculated as the difference between the level

of emissions under the proposed abatement measures and the level of emissions at the end of 2019. The costs of

net zero include both the present value of the costs of abatement, as well as the present value of the expenditure

 electric heating systems are more efficient than systems running on oil (which is the second  of offsetting the unabated emissions. Throughout all scenarios it is assumed that unabated emissions are being most widely used energy source for domestic heating on the Island, after electricity ). This  offset from 2030 onwards. All costs are presented in present value terms, discounted at 3.5%, as per the HM

Treasury Green Book guidance. The assessment period covers the years 2019 50. The expenditure on offsets is

means that, all other things being equal, a property heated with electricity consumes less  estimated using the high forecast for the prices of ETS from National Grid.

energy than one heated with oil; and

 electricity has a lower carbon factor than any other heating energy source available on the

Island. This means that for any given amount of energy consumed, an electric heating system emits the least carbon.

Based on the review of approaches adopted in other jurisdictions and taking into account policies already embedded within the 2014 Energy Plan, the following measures, H1 and H2 have been assessed:

 Measure H1: facilitating the replacement of oil and LPG[2] heating systems in both domestic

and commercial properties with electric heating systems; and

 Measure H2: upgrading the insulation of the domestic housing stock constructed prior to the

2001 Building Bye Laws which introduced energy efficiency requirements.

Figure 7.10 illustrates how the costs of net zero are split between abatement and offsetting,  Figure 7.11 shows how carbon emissions might evolve over time under a scenario of full depending on the specific timeframe for abatement measures. This shows that delaying the  electrification of domestic and commercial heating by 2030. The emissions produced after 2030 abatement measures has two effects:  originate from the carbon footprint of electricity used to power the heating systems.

 spreading the investment over a longer period of time decreases the total present value of

costs (as costs incurred further away in the future are discounted more heavily); and Figure 7.11 Illustrative evolution of emissions from domestic and commercial

heating

 a more prolonged abatement process comes with an increased exposure to the price of

offsets. Current evidence suggests that the price of offsets is likely to substantially increase in

the near future (see section 5.7), which suggests that delaying the abatement programme will  200