Meteorological infrastructure and local weather forecasting

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WRITTEN QUESTIONS TO THE MINISTER FOR PLANNING AND ENVIRONMENT BY DEPUTY G.C.L. BAUDAINS OF ST. CLEMENT

ANSWERS TO BE TABLED ON TUESDAY, 24th OCTOBER 2006

Question 1

Would the Minister advise members –

( a ) w h e ther all aspects of the meteorological infrastructure, such as the weather radar, are currently fully

operational and, if not, why not?

( b ) what processes are in place to monitor quality of local weather forecasts and compare their accuracy

with other jurisdictions?

( c ) how much of the data used in local forecasting is bought in and how much is locally generated? Answer

1. Apart from the wave rider buoy situated 6 miles south of Corbière, all aspects of the Meteorologica infrastructure, including the weatherradar are fully operational. Thewave rider buoywasset adrift from its mooring last month and is currently atSt. Helier Harbourawaiting a replacementmooringattachmentbefore being redeployed.

I t should also be noted that one member of staff is on indefinite sick leave, having an impact on the  routine

administrative work of the Department while administrative staff cover the operational roster.

2. V  erification schemes are in place to monitor today's forecast produced at 09.00 andtomorrow'sforecast published in the Jersey EveningPost. For 2005, accuracy wasassessed at  95.7% for today's forecastand 91.9% fortomorrow's. A similar schemeto verify theGuernseyPressforecast is to be introduced next year.

W  ind warnings are assessed against a criteria of a wind of F6, or more, likely  within the Channel  Islands

area. For 2005, the assessment showed 88.5% correct warnings were issued. Only 2.2% of events (that is, winds of F6 or more) were missed and the average lead time between the issue of a  warning and a strong wind occurring was 10.7 hours  compared to  the Harbour Office's  requirement of  6  hours notice.

F o recasts for Jersey, Guernsey and Alderney Airports are routinely verified, using a scheme developed by the

United Kingdom Meteorological Office. The target score set by the UK is 84%. Results for  the twelve months ending August 2006 show an overall score  of  Jersey 87.4%, Guernsey 87.3%, Alderney 88.1%.

A  ccuracy with other jurisdictions is difficult to compare as  -

(i ) M  ost verification statistics produced by the larger Meteorological services  are typically based on

the  accuracy  of computer models to  predict, for example, the surface pressure at a number o specified locations as opposed to textual forecasts issued to the public.

( ii ) F or comparisons to be meaningful they must: compare like with like; be over the same time

period; and apply to the same location.

(i ii ) J e rsey Met. does not have the resources to collate and verify other jurisdiction forecasts, for example

those produced by the United Kingdom Meteorological Office on BBC Ceefax or the Internet.

3. No data ispurchasedby the Department. Thebusinessof public service meteorologyoperates through the

free exchange of data  between the National Meteorological Services. Jersey Met. receives the vast majority of the

data (over 95%) used in producing the local forecast from the United Kingdom Met. Office and to a lesser extent from Météo France. In return, data from the Weather Radar and other local observations are sent to the United Kingdom Met. Office and Météo France. Jersey also has access to data produced by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) in Reading, England and the Nation Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the USA. Without this free exchange of data Jerse would be faced with a bill of some £250,000 to £750,000 per year to receive the equivalent detailed data needed to complete the local forecast.

Question 2

1. Would the Minister informmemberswhatcontrol, if any, inisplace over Jersey forecasts supplied from the United Kingdom through Jersey Metandwhetherlocalpurchasersofthose forecasts have any recompense when the system fails?
2. Would the Minister investigate why a customer whopurchased a forecast from Jersey Met for the weekend of 14th/15th October 2006 was sent a forecast for Wednesday 13th and Thursday 14th September2006and, having complained, was told by Jersey Met that itwas nothing todo with Jersey because the faultwas in the UK?

Answer

1. No Jersey forecasts are supplied from the UnitedKingdomthrough Jersey Met.  Forecasts are supplied from Jersey Met through the United Kingdom Met. Office,  as part of the UK Met. Office's MarineCall and MetFAX Marine service operatedby I-Touch. This is a fully automated service inwhichforecasts are faxed to a central fax server. Customers receive  either a  faxor pr-erecorded forecast  by dialling into the system. Apart from monitoring the validity of the outgoing forecast to the service, nootherlocalcontrols are in place.

A 20% royalty is received by Jersey Met for this service, all other revenue being shared between I-Touch and

the UK Met. Office.

T he service was set up in 1994 as an extension to the UK Met. Office's MarineCall and MetFAX

Marine  services to include the Channel Islands. It was seen as a cost effective method of providing a faxback service without the need for expensive infrastructure at Jersey Met. This has now been largely superceded by our own credit card Weather TO GO! service available to callers in the UK, France and the Channel Islands. Full controls for this service are in place to ensure customers receive the correct forecast .

2. Yes - the Minister will investigate.