What is the projected increase in traffic arising from the H2 sites in St. Ouen, St. Peter, St. Brelade, and St. Lawrence and that arising from all other development completed or approved since 1st January 2005

3.1   Deputy J.A.N. Le Fondré of St. Lawrence of the Minister for Transport and Technical Services regarding projected traffic increases arising from development of sites on the use of certain roads:

What, if any, is the projected increase in traffic (in volume and maximum queue length) arising from the H2 sites in St. Ouen, St. Peter, St. Brelade, and St. Lawrence , and that arising from all other development, either completed or approved since 1st January 2005, on the use of St. Peter's Valley,  La Route  de la Haule (between Beaumont and Bel Royal), Rue de Haut, Victoria Avenue, and Mont Félard?

Deputy G.W.J. de Faye (The Minister for Transport and Technical Services):

I thank the Deputy for his question but I do point out to you, both the Deputy and the House, that this would have been more satisfactorily dealt with as a written question, because I have some fairly complex details relating to what has been asked. I hope the House will not mind if I forward those details to the Deputy and try and get through them as briefly as possible.

The Bailiff :

Minister, you are going to be cut-off and chopped-down after 90 seconds.

Deputy G.W.J. de Faye:

Indeed. Roughly speaking, the anticipated trips from the Bel Royal development is

97; St. Peter's village, 58; Rue des Cosnets, St. Ouen is 32; Rue de la Sergente, St. Brelade , is 22 - a total of 209 extra trips out between 8.00 and 9.00 in the morning.

Some 2,080 vehicles head towards St. Helier in the morning peak hour along Route de la Haule, the inner road and Rue de Haut. Of the 209 predicted trips from the above H2 sites, about 75 per cent could be expected to head towards St. Helier along those roads; that is about 157 extra trips - a 7.5 per cent increase. Even without allowing for private developments, an increase of 7.5 per cent can be expected to produce a greater than 7.5 per cent increase in traffic use at peak times, but to accurately predict the effect on queue lengths is difficult, as people will adjust their journey times and their travel modes. This will tend to reduce queue lengths but increase the time period over which they occur. Traffic modelling work has been carried out as part of the planning process for the Bel Royal development, and this was based on the effect of that particular development on existing traffic flows.

1. Deputy J.A.N. Le Fondré:

Could, very briefly, the Deputy give us the factor that is used to apply to traffic coming out of the new estates? For example, if you have a housing estate of 100 houses, predominantly of family 3 and 4-bedroom houses (i.e. roughly 200 adults) how many cars are expected to come out at peak hours? In other words, is it 50, 100, 150?

Deputy G.W.J. de Faye:

I can give the Deputy an indication of how those calculations are made. The Bel

Royal development is currently assuming 129 units, and therefore the modelling

calculation has estimated that that will produce 97 cars. St. Peter's Village is 72 units; it is anticipated that 58 vehicles will undertake a 8.00-9.00 a.m. peak time trip. Rue des Cosnets in St. Ouen is 35 units of accommodation, and there it has been

assumed that 32 vehicles will be involved in early morning traffic, and Rue de la Sergente in St. Brelade has a development of 27 units, and it is anticipated that that will involve 22 vehicles. Clearly, all these have to be estimates, because the department has no precise idea of who will buy a car; when and how they will use it.

2. Deputy S. Power of St. Brelade :

Can I dispute the calculations that the Minister is coming up with? I think there must be some fundamental mistake in the way his officers are calculating. He referenced - I am speaking specifically for the La Moye area; he referenced 27 units of accommodation which are coming up for completion. Can I tell the Minister that there are something like 60 units of accommodation coming up for completion in the La Moye area, if P.190 to P.192 are approved, and therefore his figures are completely wrong.

Deputy G.W.J. de Faye:

I am grateful to the Deputy for that information. These are the figures that were supplied to me by the department, and if there is an error, I shall look into it.

3. Deputy S. Power:

I wonder if the Minister could advise. During the explanation that he was giving, he was giving us figures that were estimates of the amount of traffic that would occur from certain densities of building. Could he tell us how those estimates were arrived at - was it basically guesswork, or is there some scientific analysis?

Deputy G.W.J. de Faye:

It is probably most accurate to describe it as educated guesswork, although it is supported by a level of scientific analysis, in the sense that the department's traffic division has the capacity to monitor what traffic emanates from existing developments and has done so. Therefore the department has a reasonably accurate guide as to how housing developments produce traffic; roughly at what times of day people exit developments and return to their homes in the evening. Having said that, yes, of course, every calculation is an estimation, and nothing can be expected to be precisely accurate. But I think these figures are as accurate as they can be, clearly with the exception of the error that Deputy Power feels exists in one of them.

4. Deputy I.J. Gorst of St. Clement :

The Minister has estimated extra car flows on the H2 sites. If I am not mistaken, the question also asked for all other developments in these Parishes. Does he have the figures available for that as well, please?

Deputy G.W.J. de Faye:

Beyond the Bel Royal development; St. Peter's Village; Rue des Cosnets, St. Ouen; Rue de la Sergente, St. Brelade; I regret to inform the Deputy that I do not have further figures to hand, but I am happy to supply them.

5. Deputy C.H. Egré of St. Peter :

Would the Minister agree that with the current prices for houses, both for first-time buyer and private purchase, that the potential for 2 cars being used per unit is very high? As a consequence, these figures perhaps should be modelled against the Jersey model rather than a U.K. one?

Deputy G.W.J. de Faye:

I think I would agree that the potential for purchase of 2 cars per family unit is quite high.

6. Deputy S.C. Ferguson of St. Brelade :

Is the Minister aware that much of the scientific analysis requires standing at the roadside,  counting cars,  and  that there is a considerable use  of U.K.-comparable statistics. Does the Minister not feel that it is surprising that in this sophisticated day and age, there has not been an overall traffic analysis of the west of the Island, given the problems that there are coming from the west in the mornings and going home in the evenings?

Deputy G.W.J. de Faye:

I believe that the methods of calculation are slightly more sophisticated than the Deputy points out. I am not particularly surprised that a traffic analysis has not been carried out in relation to the west of the Island perhaps in the way the Deputy expects; what has surprised me, though, has been the utter incapability of the States to grapple with the Beaumont - Bel Royal bottleneck problem over the last number of decades. We have always known this was the major area of difficulty, and frankly Members should cast their eye backwards towards those people who were responsible for planning, who clearly failed utterly to deal with the planning implications that have existed for many, many years, where developments took place in the west of the Island without the slightest attention being made to how the road traffic situation would be sorted out. That, indeed, has surprised me.