2006 migration and population figures

1240/5(3399)

WRITTEN QUESTION TO THE CHIEF MINISTER BY DEPUTY G.P.SOUTHERN OF ST. HELIER

ANSWER TO BE TABLED ON TUESDAY 3rd JULY 2007

Question 1

Further to the answers given in response to Deputy J.A. Martin on 19th June 2007 on the 2006 migration and population figures, will the Chief Minister inform members –

( a ) how many of the 200 heads of households were granted time-unlimited j' category licences?

( b ) how many of the 340 dependants were –

(i ) ch i l dren?

(i i)   el i g ible/likely to take up employment?

Answer

1. 40% of j' category applications in 2006weregrantedwithout a time limit, equatingto 80 employees.
2. The number of dependents associated with inwardmigrant j' category employees is not collected directly but is estimated from theage-gender distributions compiledby the lastCensus, with anypotentialrecent change being monitoredby the results of the annualSocial Survey. Statistics on both pre-schoolandschool- age children provide anadditionalcomplementarycross-analysis to this estimate.

 F  rom these complementary approaches it is estimated that there were approximately 340 dependents of

inward migrant j-category employees in 2006, and that these broke down into children and working-aged adults as:

( i) a p proximately 170 children aged 15 years or under

( ii ) a p p roximately 170 adults of working age (defined as men aged 16-64 years and women aged 16-59

years).

Question 2

Given the Chief Minister's expressed policy to maintain economic growth at 2% per year whilst containing job growth to 1% (500 jobs) –

( a ) can the Chief Minister explain to members why job growth in 2006 amounted to 1540, or 3%? (source:

Stats Unit - Jersey Labour Market December 2006)?

( b ) what measures, if any, are envisaged to contain job growth to within the target of 1% for coming years,

and if not does he expect similar figures for 2007? Will these include measures to increase productivity, and if so, what specific measures will he or his Ministers employ to bring this about?

( c ) what proportion of the increase in total employment in the private sector in 2006 is attributable to the

employment of j' category and non-qualified staff?

( d ) what measures does the Chief Minister propose to limit the accelerating rate of private sector j' category job growth, led by the finance sector, illustrated by the 80% increase over 5 years in Figure 8 of the

Jersey Labour Market December 2006 above? Answer

1. E m ploymentgrowth in 2006, based on the December figures, amounted to 1,540 becauseof the strong performance of the Jersey economy, favourable international economic environment, and the approach of the Council of Ministers to promoting and facilitating economic growth in accordance with the approved Economic GrowthPlan, and the Strategic Plan,2006 - 2011. This growth was driven by1,140localpeople gaining employmentandenteringtheworkforce - accounting for81%of the private sector employment growth. This is a welcome development, and notsomething that should becapped in any single year,but rather, something that shouldbemanagedwithinthe1%perannumtarget over thelifeoftheeconomiccycle and the life of the Strategic Plan.

T  he Strategic Plan was agreed in 2004 and was set against the position in 2003. In this context, average

growth in the total workforce over the 3-year period, 2003 - 2006, has been 0.44% per year, which is significantly below the 1% target. Such an average measure reflects the accepted economic reality that economic growth is not spread evenly in each and every year, but has a significant cyclical element which must be managed.

2. The Regulation of UndertakingsandDevelopmentLaw and the Housing Law continue tobe applied to manage economic growth,and in particular tomanagemigration.The strictness with whichthesecontrols are applied is reflected in the figures, with non-localemployeesmakingup13% of theworkforce, j employees makingup just 3% of the workforce,and local employeesmaking up the vast majority,84%. In termsof growth in employment in 2006,localpeople were the beneficiaries, with 81%of job growthcoming from local people. These controls will continue tobe applied to achieve average employmentgrowthofnomore than 1%over the life of the Strategic Plan,until such time as in the near future new migrationcontrols are introduced.

I n 2007, the economy is expected to continue to grow at a healthy rate and there will be further growth in job

numbers. Any firm estimate, however, must await the publication of the 30th June 2007 manpower results.

It  is a clear objective of the  Economic Development Department to  deliver economic growth  through

increased productivity, with a maximum average annual growth in the working population of 1%. This is why, amongst other things, the Council of Ministers has placed a high priority on the development of a Skills Executive which, for the first time, will bring together all aspects of the skills agenda under one organisation. Over the coming months this new body which will be charged with developing a series of measures to maximise the skills of local people to meet the needs of the local economy in the most effective way.

3. Asrecorded in the published Jersey LabourMarketDecember2006,11%ofemploymentgrowthcame from j category essential employees,8% from non-locally qualified persons,and the vast majority, 81% from locally qualified people.
4. j' employees account for just 3%of the total labour force, andwhile this maybe a 1% increase on 2002, when j's accountedfor2%ofthelabour force, itremains a small proportion of the total. Ithasalso taken place atthe expense oflower skilled non-localemployeeswhonowaccountfor13% of the workforce, compared to 14%in2002.Localpeople continue to accountfor84%oftheworkforce.

T  hese changes reflect improvements in productivity, in finance in particular but other industries also, as

general economy activity becomes increasingly skilled, diverse, and of higher value. This is a positive development for the local labour force, who benefit from the skills transferred from this small j category labour force, enabling the Island to better compete in the international market place, as it must. Furthermore, as these skills are transferred to the local labour force, the less will be the need for j category employees in the future - while still securing the skills base the Island must have.

T h ese structural changes – the displacement of lower skilled with higher skilled activities - have taken place within the strict controls applied under the Regulation of Undertakings Law and Housing Law within the context of balancing economic growth against the demand of resources, in particular, housing. These controls

will continue to be applied to achieve this balance.