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4.15 The Deputy of Grouville of the Minister for Transport and Technical Services regarding the basis on which the figure of over 250 households per year from 2008 to 2035 was used within the waste arisings model to justify the size of the new incinerator:
Given that the figure of over 250 households per year from 2008 to 2035 was built
into the waste arisings model developed by the Transport and Technical Services Department and used to justify the size of the new incinerator, would the Minister advise what States decision, if any, was used as the basis for this net inward migration figure of over 250 heads of households over this time period?
The Connétable of St. Brelade (The Minister for Transport and Technical
Services:
The Imagine Jersey 2035 process provided figures for net inward migration over a range of scenarios that were used to identify possible population numbers up to 2035. While these population scenarios have not led to any States decision, a base line number had to be used in the waste horizons model to determine the capacity of new Energy from Waste plant. The decision by the previous Minister for Transport and Technical Services to base the revised waste arising model on an increase of 250 heads of households per year, among other factors, was predicated upon the best information available to the States Statistics Unit at the time, and the recommendation was made. In addition, the Housing Needs Survey issued in April 2008 was also used as an indicator for the number of households required by 2035 to meet potential population demands.
- The Deputy of Grouville :
Would the Minister say that the Imagine Jersey 2035 event that was attended by just over 100 people was representative of Islanders' views?
The Connétable of St. Brelade :
Yes, I think it was, and I did allude to the fact that the figure of 250 heads of
households was one of the factors considered. Clearly, the scenarios used in the
Imagine Jersey 2035 event ranged from an increase of 125 through to an increase of
650. In the light of the present economic circumstances, clearly we have reviewed this and considered nil growth, and even a 10 per cent reduction in population. The
difference is not sufficiently significant for us to change policy regarding the size of the new incinerator in that any possible cost saving achieved by reducing the size of the plant just simply does not represent good value for money when you look at the whole picture.
- Senator S. Syvret:
The Minister suggested that he did believe that the result of the Imagine Jersey 2035 exercise reflected public accurately. Could he explain how that is so, given such compounding factors as self-selecting samples and, in fact, that the methodology used in that exercise is well documented, well written about and it is a textbook example of what is known as a manufacturing consent exercise?
The Connétable of St. Brelade :
There is absolutely no advantage to the Transport and Technical Services Department to build a plant of a size greater than it needs and at a greater cost. I would also remind the Deputy that I mentioned the Household Needs Survey issued April 2008 was a contributing factor to the decision making process.
The Deputy Bailiff :
Can I ask you to keep your voice up? Certainly I have a little difficulty in hearing it.
You tend to drop your voice. So, if you could keep it up.
- Deputy G.P. Southern :
Does the Minister not accept that to come forward with definitive policy based on figures which have not yet been accepted by the House for population growth is in fact in error?
The Connétable of St. Brelade :
No. As I indicated earlier on, the department used the best available information at the time, and I am quite confident that that was sound and good information.
- Deputy G.P. Southern :
Will the Minister be pressing his fellow Ministers on the Council of Ministers for a full-scale debate on population policy before we proceed any further down this headlong track to 100,000 population figure?
The Connétable of St. Brelade :
That is for the Chief Minister to decide.
- Deputy J.A. Martin:
My original question was something along the lines of who does decide. Obviously it is now the T.T.S. Minister who decides what the population will be. But there were many flaws in Imagine Jersey 2035, and the one for St. Helier, Deputy , was that all the housing had to be put in St. Helier. So, I hope the Minister for Planning and Environment and the Council of Ministers will take this on board, because it is not feasible, it is not possible. I again urge that we have a population debate, because if we do not meet this population that the T.T.S. forecasts, we will have already a massive incinerator that will be too big for the population. I always thought it was States Members who were elected to have a debate and make these big decisions, not the Minister, and a very newly appointed Minister for T.T.S.
The Deputy Bailiff :
Sorry. What was the question, Deputy ? I am not sure I got it.
Deputy J.A. Martin:
Would he agree, basically? The whole thing is a total farce, and there is subjective material, selected material to suit themselves, never discussed in this House, and does not look like it ever will.
The Connétable of St. Brelade :
I am not absolutely sure what the Deputy was asking. I think it was more of a statement.
The Deputy Bailiff :
Do you agree with that?
The Connétable of St. Brelade :
No.
- The Deputy of Grouville :
I too had trouble hearing the Constable's response to my original question. Could he just confirm that the document, and the only document, that has been used to increase our population by 11,000 over the next decade - the only document to support that - was the Imagine Jersey 2035 questionnaire?
The Connétable of St. Brelade :
No. The Housing Needs Survey issued in April 2008 was also used in the calculations.