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WRITTEN QUESTION TO THE MINISTER FOR PLANNING AND ENVIRONMENT BY DEPUTY P.V.F. LE CLAIRE OF ST. HELIER
ANSWER TO BE TABLED ON TUESDAY 19th JANUARY 2010
Question
Following the postponement of the networked British Irish Council/Hadley Centre sea level increase scenarios from November 2008 until April 2009, will the Minister now share the most up to date scenarios and findings and inform us how they compare to our own information at present?
Does the Minister believe that more emphasis needs to be placed on planning for these scenarios and their likely impacts?
Answer
The Deputy raises a very important issue with this question. Predicted rises in sea level and other effects of global climate change are key challenges for long term planning and adaptation. In order to address this issue, the Department will be bringing forward adaptation measures within a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy which will follow on from the agreement of the States Assembly on an Energy Policy. A draft Energy Policy White Paper is expected to be made available for consultation this quarter with the adaptation work beginning thereafter in 2010.
The most recent information was presented to an officer from the Jersey Met Service who met with Professor Jenkins from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre in May 2009. Professor Jenkins presented the UK Climate Impact Programme 2009 (UKCIP09) scenarios which contain the most likely climate predictions across the UK under different emissions scenarios. The PowerPoint presentation given by Professor Jenkins, when meeting with our officer has been forwarded to the Deputy (07/01/10) and can be made available to all members upon request.
With respect to sea level rise, a likely mean sea level rise by 2080 of approximately +45cm under the high emissions scenario is predicted. This is a more precise estimate than the previous range which was between 16- 69cm for the same period (BIC 2003 report, high emissions scenario). The Island does not make independent projections of sea level rise instead relying on the expert scientific projections from UKCIP.
Although this information is not available in a report (for example an updated version of the British Irish Council Report of 2003) UKCIP09 have deliberately made it available on their website[1] in a downloadable format so
that it can be used for scenario testing and forward planning. Locally this information is already being used for example, the recent initial work undertaken by the TTS Department in coastal defence planning.
[1]
http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/