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WRITTEN QUESTION TO THE MINISTER FOR SOCIAL SECURITY BY DEPUTY G.P. SOUTHERN OF ST. HELIER
ANSWER TO BE TABLED ON TUESDAY 10th SEPTEMBER 2013
Question
Will the Minister explain to members the reasons which underpin the choice of net immigration of 350 persons a year in the proposals for long term care?
Will he advise how the costs of the proposals are affected by annual immigration at 150, 250 and 500, prior to any debate on population control?
Answer
In September 2012 the Statistics Unit published a number of population projections based on the results of the 2011 census. (2012 Jersey Population Projections, States of Jersey Statistics Unit[1]). This included the scenario of net immigration of 350 persons per year. In advance of any other approved specific immigration target, this 350 assumption is being used as being consistent with the 2009 Strategic Plan. The detailed modelling undertaken in respect of long-term care costs has been built such that it can accommodate any alternative population scenario that may be chosen in future for strategic planning purposes.
The number of people aged over 65 in Jersey will increase under each of the population scenarios and in general terms, the number of people requiring care over the next 30 years is not strongly influenced by different population scenarios - the great majority of people who will require care before 2044 (when they are in their 70s, 80s and 90s) already live in Jersey. However the working age population is quite strongly dependent on the population scenario chosen.
- Increasing net immigration above 350 persons per year will increase the number of working age people and will decrease the LTC contribution rate required in 2044. For example, the LTC model suggests that net immigration of 700 persons per year would reduce the 2044 break-even LTC contribution rate from 2.7% to 2.5%.
- A net immigration level below 350 persons per year will lead to a decline in the number of working age people and this will increase the LTC contribution rate required in 2044. For example, the LTC model suggests that nil net immigration would increase the 2044 break- even LTC contribution rate from 2.7% to 3.0%.