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WRITTEN QUESTION TO THE MINISTER FOR TREASURY AND RESOURCES BY DEPUTY J.A.N. LE FONDRE OF ST. LAWRENCE
ANSWER TO BE TABLED ON TUESDAY 18th FEBRUARY 2014
Question
Further to the remarks made by the Fiscal Policy Panel in recommendation 6 which appears on printed page 7 of their Annual report published on 5th November 2013 (and available on the 2013 Treasury and Resources reports and documents page of www.gov.je), would the Minister provide the following:
- a financial forecast for the current and next 3 years including updated income projections;
- proposed movements and projected year end balances on the Consolidated Fund, Stabilisation Fund and Strategic Reserve for the current year and next 3 years;
- data which shows what happened to these funds in the last 3 years; and,
- a financial forecast showing the surpluses and deficits adjusted to recognise the economic impacts?
Answer
Part a) a financial forecast for the current and next 3 years including updated income projections;
The financial forecast represents the MTFP forecasts updated for the 2013 and 2014 Budget and the Update to the MTFP Department Annex for 2014 (R8/2014).
The financial forecast will be revised for the 2015 Budget and will include the Outturn figures for 2013. Part b) proposed movements and projected year end balances on the Consolidated Fund, Stabilisation Fund and Strategic Reserve for the current year and next 3 years:
The Fund Movements and estimated balances represent the forecasts following the 2014 Budget.
The forecast of fund movements and fund balances will be revised for the 2015 Budget and will include the Outturn figures for 2013.
Part c) data which shows what happened to these funds in the last 3 years;
The following tables illustrate the movement in balances on the Consolidated Fund, Stabilisation Fund and Strategic Reserve for the last 3 years.
d) a financial forecast showing the surpluses and deficits adjusted to recognise the economic impacts?
The work to produce a financial forecast with adjustments estimating the economic impacts was initially undertaken as a result of a recommendation from the 2012 Fiscal Policy Panel report. This work was discussed with the Panel in advance of this year's report and updated as a result of the Panel's initial comments.
The work to adjust for the estimated economic impacts has been to:
- Replace the budgeted capital allocations with an estimate from departments of the expected cash flow profile for all capital projects in the future programme.
- Include in the forecast of capital cash flows from departments how the balance of unspent capital at 31st December 2012.
- Reflect other timing variances between budgeted allocations and actual expenditure in relation to known carry forwards.
- Include adjustments to reflect planned movements in the Trading Funds of the States Trading operations, principally Jersey Airport and Jersey Harbours.
- Assess the estimated net economic impact of the other funds of the States, which are outside of the Consolidated Fund, but still affecting the economy. These adjustments are for the projected surplus or deficit of the Social Security Fund, Health Insurance Fund, Dwelling Houses Loans Fund etc.
The Treasury will continue to review the economic impact analysis to support the work in development of the LTRP and LTCP and ensure an update is available to the FPP for the next annual report. Consideration will be given to the inclusion of this analysis in the next MTFP 2016-2019.
Summary Financial Forecast with adjustments estimating the economic impact
