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1240/5(8799)
WRITTEN QUESTION TO THE CHIEF MINISTER BY DEPUTY M.R. HIGGINS OF ST. HELIER
ANSWER TO BE TABLED ON TUESDAY 12th MAY 2015
Question
Will the Minister advise Members what work, if any, has been done to assess the correlation between the views expressed in the business tendency surveys and actual outcomes in the areas investigated, and will he share the results of this research with Members so that they can gauge the accuracy of these surveys?
Answer
The Business Tendency Survey is a welcome and useful addition to the data available on the Jersey economy, as it provides regular information on a range of key economic indicators. The results are analysed by the Statistics Unit, Economics Unit and the Fiscal Policy Panel (FPP) but are ultimately qualitative indicators that should be considered alongside the suite of economic indicators before trends in the economy can be properly assessed.
As the survey has only been undertaken since 2009 there is not a reasonable time period over which to assess the indicators in the survey. Many of the questions in the survey do not refer directly to measurable economic variables but where they do, comparisons are made with outturns. For example, the chart below is taken from the FPP's 2014 Annual Report (page 19) which looks at the indicators for the non-finance sector.
Figure 1.11 Non-Finance GVA Growth
Annual real GVA growth excluding financial intermediation and rental (left-hand scale)
Non-finance responses to business activity and profitability questions averaged over each year (right-hand scale)
15% Real GVA Growth Business Activity Profitability 55 45
10% 35 25
5% 15
5 0%
-5 -5% -15 -25
-10% -35 -45
-15% -55
Source: Jersey Statistics Unit
The Fiscal Policy Panel's report is available online - http://www.gov.je/SiteCollectionDocuments/Government%20and%20administration/R%20Fiscal%20Pol icy%20Panel%202014%20annual%20report%20JE%2020140725.pdf