The use of population projections to determine the capacity of Les Quennevais School

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WRITTEN QUESTION TO THE MINISTER FOR EDUCATION, SPORT AND CULTURE BY DEPUTY M. TADIER OF ST. BRELADE

ANSWER TO BE TABLED ON TUESDAY 3rd NOVEMBER 2015

Question

Will the Minister provide the concrete population projections for both the  Island and the new Les Quennevais School intake which are being used to determine the capacity of the new Les Quennevais School, including figures for the opening date and each 10 years thereafter until 2057?

Answer

As noted in my response to Deputy Tadier 's question on 20th October, the projections for pupil numbers at Les Quennevais School are based on birth numbers and the analysis of demographic trends, including net migration. This work is carried out in close consultation with the States Statistics Unit, and the figures for net migration take into account both the States' population policy and actual population numbers. The projections also take account of the number of pupils in the school system, and are updated annually to reflect changes over time.

The school population at Les Quennevais currently stands at 688 pupils, and the projections for the period up to 2029 are as follows –

Deputy Tadier has asked for concrete' population projections for both the Island and the new Les Quennevais School, but it will be appreciated that it becomes more difficult to make more detailed projections when looking at a longer term, as the number of variables may increase over a longer time span. Pupil projections for the period after 2029 would therefore be more provisional in nature, and would be subject to review on a continuing basis.

The planned capacity for a new secondary school at Les Quennevais is 750 pupils, with the ability to take up to 850 pupils without having to build extra accommodation. The plans for the new school will allow room for expansion beyond this figure, should this become necessary. As already noted, pupil projections are kept under continuing review, and the department would therefore be able to give at least several years notice of any such requirement. Consideration would also be given to other options, including whether there is capacity in the other secondary schools to take additional pupils.

Deputy Tadier has also asked for population projections for each ten years after the projected opening date until 2057, and projections beyond 2029 will be to a lesser degree of accuracy for the reasons explained above. Any such projections will be subject to change over time, and will therefore need to be seen as very provisional at this stage. Assuming an opening date of 2019 for a new school, the provisional figures are as follows –

Note: The projections for the total Island population take into account both the current States' population policy and actual population numbers. The projections also assume that any increases in housing to meet the increased demand for accommodation will be spread evenly across the Island, although in the current Island Plan there is a strong emphasis on building new residential accommodation in St. Helier . If this emphasis is maintained in future Island Plans, then the total number of pupils in the Les Quennevais catchment area could be significantly less than the totals shown for the years 2039 onwards.