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10
1240/5/1(348)
WRITTEN QUESTION TO THE MINISTER FOR TREASURY AND RESOURCES BY SENATOR S.C. FERGUSON
ANSWER TO BE TABLED ON TUESDAY 20TH JUNE 2017
Question
Given that, in Revised Forecast of States Income for March 2017' (R.66/2017), it is stated that "IFG have also given consideration to the proposals from the external review of the personal income tax forecasting model" and the references to the adoption of "outcomes from the external review of the forecasting model, which propose adjustments to employment income and pension income assumptions", will the Minister advise –
- what the details are of the changes made to the forecast, if any, due exclusively to the "external review";
- what the split is between corporate and income tax in the forecast;
- when the report arising from the review was received by his Department;
- what the cost of the review was; and
- whether this is the total work undertaken on the forecasting model?
Answer
Most of the answers to the Senator's questions can be found in R.66/2017 (re-issue) presented to the States on 9th June 2017 by the Minister for Treasury and Resources:
- The details to the changes to the forecast and the split between corporate and personal tax are covered on page 24 figure 8 (and there is more detail on page 44).
- The two Oxera reports are included in Appendix E and F and were finalised on 25 April 2017.
- The cost of the review was £26,000.
- The two reports from Oxera cover the total work undertaken to date. However, as explained on page 45 of R.66/2017 the Economics Unit and Oxera consider that it could be worthwhile exploring a more bottom-up' approach to forecasting using more detailed information now available from Taxes Office. The Economics Unit will therefore scope out a second stage to the Model Review and agree terms of reference and timescales with the IFG.