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2019.10.08
3 Deputy G.P. Truscott of the Chief Minister regarding the size of the future hospital:
(OQ.229/2019)
Given that it is projected by Statistics Jersey that, by the year 2035, there will be approximately 128,800 people living in Jersey, of whom 35,000 will be over the age of 65, what size of future hospital is currently being considered and how many operating theatres and additional beds will have to be provided to safely accommodate the projected clinical demand of such demographics?
Senator J.A.N. Le Fondré (The Chief Minister):
Senator Farnham is answering the question.
Senator L.J. Farnham (Assistant Chief Minister - rapporteur):
The exact site of the Future Hospital and the detail of services it provides will be determined by a range of factors. These will include the population and demographic profile of the Island and the model for how health and social care is provided in the future. This is currently being discussed by the Council of Ministers. The new hospital will provide all the essential services needed for our population, but it will also be part of the way our Island provides healthcare in the future. We will ensure that we provide the full range of services needed by Islanders across the new model. A strategy is being prepared for this and the Minister for the Health and Social Services will provide full information about the new Jersey Care model as soon as details are finalised. This will inform the design, the size and shape of the new hospital, so it meets patients' needs. We have set out a timetable for when each stage of the Our Hospital project will take place and I will ensure, as Chairman of the Hospital Political Oversight Group, that there is a regular flow of information as we pass each milestone.
- Deputy G.P. Truscott:
I was now hoping that the Minister could close this question down quite quickly by providing me with the amount of beds that are being considered and the amount of theatres that are being considered. Currently, there are 219 beds in our General Hospital. There are 6 operating theatres. You have got to take into account, surely, that there are going to be 35,000 over-65s and these are the people that are losing ... the knees are going, the hips are going, et cetera; are they going to need clinical and excellent clinical attention? I am disappointed, after spending £30 million of taxpayers' money, that you are not in a position to give this Deputy and the Assembly and the Island any indication of the future shape of the hospital. But I do look forward to the plans going forward. Does the Minister agree? [Laughter] Does the Minister agree that work needs to be done on the demographics.
Senator L.J. Farnham :
Absolutely and this time we are going to do it properly. The exact size of the Future Hospital and the needs of Islanders and the detail of the services it will provide, as I said, are being determined by a range of factors. That includes the population demographic profile, but, most importantly, the new care model. Once we have agreed that, we will then be able to start finalising the numbers. But I would like to assure the Deputy and Members that our new hospital will fulfil all of the needs of the Islanders.
- Deputy S.G. Luce of St. Martin :
The Minister referred to a timetable. He also referred to the need for the new care model to inform the size of any new hospital. Could he tell us when this new care model needs to be produced in order to keep to the timetable?
Senator L.J. Farnham :
The timetable was provided to all Members in the Chief Minister's report R.54/2019 and I have recently provided an update to Members in R.116/2019 in September of how the Oversight Group was progressing. The 3 key stages are putting the care model in place and a sort of detailed length of stakeholder work, because in the past we did not, I believe, consult with all of the relevant stakeholders properly and that is now happening. The care model - and I am trying to read from the review - but the outline objectives started in July and there are a lot of parallel workstreams now in place. But I believe - I am looking to the Minister for Health and Social Services - we are aiming to have the care model agreed pretty much by the end of this year to keep to the timetable.
- Deputy J.H. Perchard:
I am quite surprised the Deputy Chief Minister did not jump on the premise of the question. The figures in the question are based on a population projection of plus 1,000 per year, which is the current rate and the rate we have been talking about for the last 10 years.
[10:15]
Given that that premise of the question was accepted by the Minister by way of it not being refuted, will the migration policy, which he has linked to hospital size, can we therefore expect to see that migration policy and subsequent hospital size be based on projected figures of plus 1,000 residents a year and for how long will that last and when will we need a new hospital, if that is so?
Senator L.J. Farnham :
No, I do not think we can, but that is the very issue that the group, chaired by the Constable of St. John , are wrestling with at the moment. I do not believe population increases of that level are sustainable, but we have to wait for the group to complete its work.