Impact of 'no deal' Brexit

WQ.357/2019

WRITTEN QUESTION TO THE MINISTER FOR EXTERNAL RELATIONS BY DEPUTY G.P. SOUTHERN OF ST. HELIER

ANSWER TO BE TABLED ON TUESDAY 10th SEPTEMBER 2019

Question

Will the Minister advise –

1. whether recent events in the U.K., including the prorogation of Parliament, have had any impact on the Government of Jersey's assessment of the likelihood of a no deal' Brexit and, if so, what impact they have had;
2. what parts of Jersey's economy, if any, it has been assessed would be placed at risk in the event of a no deal' Brexit;
3. update members in respect of the settled status' scheme for E.U. migrants in Jersey, providing figures for many have people have registered and how many are expected to do so; and
4. state what assessment, if any, has been undertaken of how the Island would be affected if free movement were to end on 31st October 2019 in the event of a no deal' Brexit, as has been proposed in the U.K.?

Answer

1. The Government of Jersey has been preparing for all Brexit eventualities, including a potential No Deal', since prior to the referendum in June 2016. We are of course closely monitoring developments in the UK, liaising with both the UK Government and Parliamentarians, to assess how events may impact upon our interests or affect the Brexit outcome. The Government of Jersey still believes that a negotiated exit is in the best interests of all parties involved in the Brexit negotiations. However, we remain committed to ensuring the island is as ready as possible for a No Deal, and officials across government are continuing to refresh plans and preparations for October 31st.
2. The full impact of a No Deal Brexit is difficult to predict. However, should the UK leave the EU without a deal, the basis for trade will be WTO trading standards, plus the continuity trade agreements that will come into effect on exit. There would be no continuity trade agreement with the EU; as such, those industries that export goods primarily into the EU Single Market would be the most affected in that they would face additional tariffs and other non-tariff barriers such as increased checks and paperwork. In 2017 the Government of Jersey assessed the potential impacts of a No Deal Brexit' on Jersey's fishery, aquaculture and agri-food businesses and we are working closely with these sectors to prepare for a wide range of eventualities.

Any economic impact on Jersey businesses that employ nationals from the EU 26 countries is not expected to be immediate as it would depend on the exact nature of the successor immigration (visa) scheme that is introduced by the UK. Jersey businesses should continue to encourage relevant employees to register under the Jersey-EU Settlement Scheme (JEUSS).

3. At time of writing (6th September 2019), approximately 5,100 EU nationals have registered for the Jersey-EU Settlement Scheme. This is roughly in line with the UK's rate of registration. In a No Deal situation EU nationals will need to register by the 31st December 2020 should they wish to remain in the island. Officers are working proactively to promote the scheme and ensure that hard to reach and vulnerable people have the ability to apply.

4. Following a No Deal Brexit there may be increased delays for British nationals passing through passport control on arrival into the EU, however those visiting for up to 90 days will not require a visa. EU citizens arriving in Jersey will not be subject to routine questioning at passport control but will be granted automatic' leave to enter.

Late on 4th September the UK Government published a policy paper on how it will allow new' EU nationals to remain in the UK during the transition period between Brexit day and the introduction of the Future Border and Immigration System in January 2021. This new policy is being closely examined by JCIS and LOD but significantly it confirms there will be a route for new' EU nationals to enter and remain without an immigration fee during the transition period up to January 2021.

The EU Commission has indicated that British nationals who wish to remain in the EU for anything more than a 90-day visit may need additional immigration permission. Beyond the transition period, consultation has commenced with local employers and businesses in relation to how EU nationals will be able to come to live and work in Jersey from January 2021 onwards.

The Jersey-EU Settlement Scheme provides assurance for all EU nationals that arrive in Jersey prior to Brexit day that they can remain and continue to live and work here.

Jersey's Control of Housing and Work Law is unaffected by Brexit.