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WQ.503/2019
WRITTEN QUESTION TO THE MINISTER FOR THE ENVIRONMENT BY DEPUTY M. TADIER OF ST. BRELADE
ANSWER TO BE TABLED ON TUESDAY 12th NOVEMBER 2019
Question
What level of sea rises are expected by the Minister's department in Jersey over the next 30 years and what provisions, if any, are being considered in terms of –
- improvements to coastal defences; and
- planning restrictions in areas of the Island that may be susceptible to temporary or permanent flooding, resulting from either higher sea levels or more frequent storms?
Answer
Over the last 2 years officers from Growth Housing and Environment and Strategy, Policy, Performance and Planning led by the Minister for Infrastructure and the Minister for Environment have been developing a Shoreline Management Plan (SMP). The draft SMP was out for public consultation between July and September this year and is available to view on www.gov.je/shorelineplan. The final SMP will be published in January 2020.
States Members briefings on the SMP were delivered on 2nd May and 25th June 2019 to which all members were invited.
The Planning Policy team has been closely involved in the SMP project from the outset, with the timing of the project specifically being set so that it would feed into the Island Plan Review process that is currently underway. This will enable the development of an appropriate policy response in the new Island Plan to ensure that the implications of climate change can be explicitly considered in the planning process.
The SMP examines the risk of coastal flooding using the UK's National Oceanography Centre guidance to assess the impact of climate change on flood risk in the future which recommends using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's RCP8.5' climate change emission scenario ("business as usual"). The likely range under this scenario is from 0.53-0.98m by 2100 and for 2050 it is estimated to be between about 0.18m and 0.30m. The SMP is planning for the next 100 years and uses the 50th percentile results under the RCP8.5 scenario which gives a sea level rise prediction of 0.83 metres by 2120.
The SMP details the management intent for the Island's coastline over the next 100 years with the aim of preventing and managing the effects of coastal erosion and flooding, through assessing the impact of climate change on rising sea levels over time. It assesses the risk of coastal erosion and flooding using hydraulic modelling, historic maps and beach surveys and highlights the areas of the coastline which are likely to flood during a range of different intensity storm events. It takes into consideration the coastal defences already in place and their condition.
The SMP aims to maintain existing defences or identify new defences which will be required to protect against coastal flooding up to a 1:200 year return period event (a storm event which is predicted to occur, on average, once every 200 years. The SMP will be reviewed every 10 years to respond to advancements in climate change predictions and sea level rise predictions.