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WQ.446/2020
WRITTEN QUESTION TO THE MINISTER FOR HEALTH AND SOCIAL SERVICES
BY DEPUTY M.R. HIGGINS OF ST. HELIER
ANSWER TO BE TABLED ON TUESDAY 17th NOVEMBER 2020
Question
Will the Minister explain his strategy for dealing with an increase in the number of Coronavirus cases in the Island this winter and outline the criteria, if any, that will be used to determine whether or not to lock down the Island, with particular reference to –
- the R (reproduction) rate;
- the number of infections per 100,000 of the population;
- the number of Intensive Care Unit beds being used by COVID-19 patients; and
- the types of illnesses caused by COVID-19?
Answer
Locking down normal life, the economy and travel will be the last resort of the Government.
A key feature of the recently published Winter Strategy is the principle of a balance of harms. Underpinning this term is the learning from the previous period of lock down. Evidence now clearly shows that, whilst effective in terms of disrupting the spread of transmission, there were significant economic and health and wellbeing impacts on the population.
The key objective in the Winter Strategy is to keep COVID-19 rates low whilst minimising impact on life and work. The key principle which acts to achieve this objective is to maximise targeted action. This means that the Government will attempt to counter threats on a targeted basis, before putting in place significant island-wide or universal restrictions.
Decisions about when to apply targeted or more universal measures are based on the specific infection patterns identified via the daily Analytical Cell alongside key public health indicators. The table below shows the indicators reported daily via the COVID-19 Public Health Dashboard. These indicators form the basis of further investigation, review and public health policy development.
Discussions ensue in STAC on the basis of the information presented via the dashboard. The same information is presented to Competent Authority Ministers. From these discussions, policy formulation is developed, reviewed and approved. This approach means that public health measures are predicated on a series of indicators, which enable a proportionate response based on the known local profile of the pandemic.
Officers are continually reviewing metrics (including the reproduction rate of the virus). The measure of ICU beds is a recognised indicator, for example, although improvements in treatments available to treat people with severe symptoms of COVID-19 mean that comparisons between ICU admissions in the first and second wave should be approached cautiously.
Public Health Intelligence: COVID-19 Monitoring Metrics
Headline Indicator | Specific Measures | Frequency |
Positive Cases | ||
| ||
Positive cases | • Total No of cases • Last case confirmed • Total recovered • Active cases • Positive cases confirmed by swab date • Positive cases identified in last 2 weeks • Tested positive, symptomatic vs asymptomatic • Age tested positive • Cumulative positive cases per 100,00 • Last 14 days Positive Cases per 100,000 | Daily |
Positive cases over time | • Proportion of positive cases with symptoms • Proportion of positive cases with asymptomatic • Death from positive cases • Active cases | Daily |
Positive cases with underlying medical conditions | • Latest case confirmed with underlying conditions by SWAB Date • Total positives with underlying medical conditions • Daily outstanding over time | Daily |
PCR Testing Activity | ||
PCR testing | Daily outstanding over time | Daily |
PCR testing | • All samples % neg • All samples % positive • All samples % pending | Daily |
PCR average turnaround times over time | • On-Island PCR tests • Send away PCR Tests | Daily |
PCR testing reasons over time | • Admission screening (Care Homes) • Admission screening hospital • Contact with symptomatic • Inbound travel • Seeking healthcare • Workforce screening • Other | Daily |
All PCR tests by swab date over time | • Asymptomatic tested • Symptomatic • First positive result |
|
Early Warning Metrics (Notifiable Disease Reporting) | ||
Notifications by reporting location over time | • Hospital setting • Personal residence | Daily |
| • Residential / Care Home • Unrecorded |
|
Notifications by reporting location over time by age | • 0-11yr • 12-17 yr • 18-59yr • 60+ yr | Daily |
Total number of Notifiable Disease forms submitted | Number of patients tested within 7 days post submitting form • Patients tested positive • Patients tested negative • Patients awaiting results | Daily |
Symptoms reported via Notifiable Disease form | • Loss of taste/smell • Muscle joint • Sore throat • Running nose • High temperature • Cough • Short breath | Daily |
Early Warning Metric - COVID-19 Helpline Activity | ||
Helpline callers in last 7 days | • Symptomatic • Non symptomatic | Daily |
Symptoms reported on helpline call over time | • Cough • Fever • Muscle ache • Headache • Tiredness • Gastrointestinal symptoms • Sore throat | Daily |
Age breakdown of helpline callers (symptomatic only) | • 0-11yr • 12-17 yr • 18-59yr • 60+ yr | Daily |
Early Warning Metric Hospitalisation | ||
Number of patients with COVID-19 in Jersey General Hospital over time |
| Daily |
Early Warning Metric Inbound Travel | ||
Total number of inbound travellers over time | • By Sea • By Air | Daily |
Total number of inbound travellers over time | Weekly number of swabs | Weekly |
New case confirmed for arrivals | Weekly | Weekly |
Test positivity rate for arrivals | Weekly | Weekly |
Positive rate per 100,000 for arrivals | Weekly | Weekly |