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WQ.249/2021
WRITTEN QUESTION TO THE MINISTER FOR CHILDREN AND EDUCATION
BY DEPUTY I. GARDINER OF ST. HELIER
QUESTION SUBMITTED ON MONDAY 24th MAY 2021
ANSWER TO BE TABLED ON TUESDAY 1st JUNE 2021
Question
Will the Minister advise –
- what method of forecasting pupil numbers, if any, is utilised by his department;
- how new housing developments are factored into any such forecast, if at all; and
- how migration to and from the Island is factored into any such forecast, if at all?
Answer
- Work on forecasting pupil numbers has been ongoing for several years. This also includes a school census being completed each term. This enables the department to see certain trends in data.
The forecasting process follows these steps: -
- Academic and calendar year birth rate data is obtained from Health & Community Services and future birth rate forecasts are obtained from Statistics Jersey
- Net migration numbers are applied
Data gathered from the school census and the school applications process, which commences from birth, is then considered. This includes: -
- Where children live
- Percentage of children that attend non fee-paying/fee-paying schools
- Number of children that remain in the same school from Nursery into Reception
Modelling is then carried out to predict the future impact of school numbers.
- Planned and new housing developments have no influence on the total number of pupils on the island but do impact the number of pupils within a catchment area. We apply several factors when calculating how each housing development will affect the number of pupils within the catchment area of the development. These are set out below
- Number of bedrooms
- Average number of children per 1,2,3,4 bedroomed property
- Percentage of children that are primary school/secondary school/pre-school age, obtained from school's yearly census
- Percentage of children that attend a private or fee-paying school, obtained from school's yearly census
- Percentage of children that will remain living in the same catchment area during their education.
- Migration is calculated by comparing the number of children in a cohort at birth and when they enter reception class .This is repeated each year and a rolling average is calculated for the previous 4 years, which is then applied to the original birth rate.