Population and Migration - Ministerial Response - 11 June 2012

Findings

Comments

1

The  2011  Census  results  called  into question the Population Policy agreed in 2009 and the capacity to control inward migration.

It  is  accepted  that  a  new  regime  to control immigration is required. This is why  the  new  Control  of  Housing  and Work  (Jersey)  Law  201-  is  being introduced. The new Law will be more effective,  but  we  also  monitor  its effectiveness  and  provide  further enhancements  as  required  to  ensure objectives are met.

2

The 2011 Census was conducted in an efficient and robust manner and evidence to  date  suggests  that  the  significant increase in the population figures results from the failings of our current control mechanisms.

As above.

3

The  reconciliation  of  the  2011  Census results by the Statistics Unit will help to provide  more  accurate  annual  updates. However, it will not resolve the issue of measuring  migration  to  and  from  the Island and a degree of uncertainty will therefore remain.

The  Population  Register  as  being introduced  under  the  new  Control  of Housing  and  Work  (Jersey)  Law  201- will provide the assurance needed in this regard.

4

The  Statistics  Unit  will  not  have completed  a  revised  Population  Model before December 2012.

Agreed.

5

The  current  Population  Policy  was adopted on the basis that new population control  mechanisms  would  be implemented.  However,  those  new mechanisms are still not in place.

The new Control of Housing and Work (Jersey) Law 201- is currently with Privy Council and the objective is to have the Law appointed by the States Assembly in September, 2012.

6

There must be a full understanding of the difference  between  the  2011  Census results  and  previous  population predictions before a debate on the new Population Policy can take place.

Agreed.

7

A  delay  in  the  debate  on  population policy  is  unfortunate  given  that  it impacts  upon  other  policy  matters: housing,  education,  employment, economic growth and infrastructure – all of  which  will  be  covered  in  the  new Strategic Plan.

Agreed.  However,  it  is  important  that any debate on population be informed by accurate data and having engaged fully with the public. It is therefore incumbent to await the full analysis of the census data, including annualised net migration data,  and  a  robust  population  model thereon,  and  to  progress  other  policy areas  in  so  far  as  is  practical  and reasonable in the meantime.

8

If the current population trends continue then the population limit of 100,000, set by  the  current  Population  Policy,  will soon be breached.

• The Chief Statistician has estimated that  in  7  –  8  years  the  population will exceed 100,000 through natural population growth.

• In addition, the level of net inward or  outward  migration  obviously directs  the  size  of  the  population. The  Statistics  Unit  are  currently working  on  annualised  net immigration  which  will  provide  a range of scenarios around population size  to  support  future  population policies and actions.

• In the meantime, the Strategic Plan is  very  clear  in  stating  that permissions for non locally qualified staff  will  be  limited,  and  1(1)(j) permissions  will  only  be  granted where high economic or social value is compellingly demonstrated.

9

Although the Chief Minister has stated that he would like to see the population constrained to 100,000, the Council of Ministers has yet to decide on whether the new population policy should include a set population limit

The new Population Policy will be based on  thorough  consultation  and  analysis, consideration  by  the  Council  of Ministers, and ultimately the approval of the States Assembly. In the meantime, the Chief Minister has expressed a view consistent with the 2009 decision of the States Assembly.

10

Further  work  on  the  granting,  renewal and  removal  of  licenses  by  the Population  Office  is  required  in  order that  a  full  understanding  of  the employment position in Jersey, and the impact  of  inward  migration,  can  be developed.

The new Law will be supported by new processes and importantly, new systems to enable a fuller range of statistics to be readily produced.

11

In order to have managed the population more effectively, measures should have been taken earlier to address high levels of inward migration to the Island.

The current Laws have been applied to their  full  extent  to  support  States objectives as the economic situation has changed,  alongside  bringing  forward  a new  Law  and  new  systems  to  support more effective migration controls.

12

The Statistics Unit will need to validate the Population Register before it can be relied  upon  as  a  rolling  measure  of Jersey's population.

Agreed.

13

Until the Population Register is complete and mature, 2 sets of population statistics will be available, thereby increasing the risk  of  confusion  when  discussing population policy.

Only one set of population statistics will be produced – by the Statistics Unit.

14

Until  such  time  as  the  register  is operational and has been validated, any population  policy  that  sets  overall population  limits  is  likely  to  be frustrated and runs the risk of failure.

It is clearly the case that a Population Register  informs  the  MAG  and Population Office in making appropriate and  effective  business  licensing  and housing  decisions  and  is  an  essential component  of  an  effective  regime. However, in the meantime, the approach contained in the Strategic Plan is being applied.

15

The  Chief  Minister  has  begun  to consider whether qualification for access to work should be extended from 5 years to 10 years.

Agreed.

16

Delivery  of  the  population  policy  will depend  upon  the  effectiveness  of migration controls. There must be clarity as to the responsibility for those controls and accountability for their success.

Agreed.

Recommendations

To

Accept / Reject

Comments

Target date of action / completion

1

The Chief Minister should undertake  a  fundamental review of the structure of the Population Office and, in  particular,  examine  the compliance  and enforcement  function  and licence allocation.

Accept

The  new  Law  will  be supported  by  new processes and importantly, new  systems  to  include providing  a  more  robust and  effective  compliance regime  utilising  the  new powers available.

September, 2012

2

Given  that  the  current control  mechanisms  are failing, the Chief Minister should  ensure  that  a comparison  is  undertaken between  the  annual population updates and the numbers  of  locally qualified  and  non-locally qualified  licenses  that  are allocated.  Furthermore, these  findings  should  be published  in  a  report  and presented to the States on an annual basis.

Accept

December, 2012

3

At  least  3  months  before the  debate  on  Population Policy, the Chief Minister should  request  the  Chief Statistician  to  provide  his view on when the Register will  be  statistically  viable as a rolling measure of the Island's population.

Accept

April, 2013

4

The Chief Minister should advise the States Assembly during  the  debate  on  the new  Strategic  Plan  about any  increases  plans  to extend  the  qualification period for access to work.

N/A

The Strategic Plan debate has taken place.