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Draft 2015 Budget - Ministerial Response - 22 September 2014

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STATES OF JERSEY

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DRAFT 2015 BUDGET (S.R.12/2014): RESPONSE OF THE MINISTER FOR TREASURY AND RESOURCES

Presented to the States on 22nd September 2014 by the Minister for Treasury and Resources

STATES GREFFE

2014   Price code: C  S.R.12 Res.(2)

DRAFT 2015 BUDGET (S.R.12/2014): RESPONSE OF THE MINISTER FOR TREASURY AND RESOURCES


Ministerial Response to: Ministerial Response required by: Review title:

Scrutiny Panel:


S.R.12/2014

27th October 2014 Draft Budget 2015 Corporate Services


Introduction

The Minister and Assistant Minister thank the Corporate Services Scrutiny Panel for their report.

Whilst the Treasury has not always been able to agree with the views of the Panel, it is recognised that Scrutiny has provided valuable contributions to a number of financial and budget debates. Their work has been able to focus minds on the important policy options for States members ultimately to decide upon. The Ministerial team sincerely thanks the Panel and recognises the time and effort spent on reviewing numerous Treasury propositions and proposals over the last 3 years. Panel members should be acknowledged for the time and effort they have spent on their work. The Minister would also particularly like to recognise the work of the Scrutiny Officers, who have worked co-operatively and diligently with Treasury officials to support the Panel and Ministerial team in researching the many background papers and in drafting reports.

The Panel Adviser from CIPFA has also provided some useful insight over the last 3 or 4 years, which has informed and influenced the Treasury's work.

It is pleasing to note that many of the Panel's recommendations have already been identified as opportunities for further improvement. The move to 3 year fixing of spending limits has been widely welcomed. The Minister is immensely proud that Jersey's Public Finances Law is held up as a model for other jurisdictions to follow, and the Panel who encouraged that approach should be recognised for its important support and contribution to this work.

As with all new innovations, there are always a number of improvements to make based on experience. The Minister is as committed as the Panel is to ensure the experience of this first MTFP is used positively to make the next MTFP even more robust.

As  members  will  have  seen  from  the  Long-Term  Revenue  Plan  Review  report, published on 16th September 2014, work on implementing a number of the suggested improvements  to  MTFP 2,  which  will  fix  expenditure  levels  for  the  period 2016 to 2019, is already underway.

Two particular areas of the Panel's report warrant a detailed introduction. Firstly, regarding the proposal in the Budget 2014 to reduce the marginal taxation rate from 27% to 26%, the Minister wishes respectfully to remind the Panel it was in full possession of all the latest forecasts and supporting papers prior to the debate of the

Draft Budget 2014. All but one member of the Panel voted in favour of part (a) of that Budget proposition which authorised the rate reduction.

The Minister signalled very clearly that the aim of this measure was carefully and specifically  designed  to  put  money  into  the  pockets  of  middle-  to  low-income Islanders.  Moreover,  this was  at  a time  when  both  households  and  the  economy needed further support. In addition, as clearly explained, this was an important step in simplifying the marginal rate system of taxation.

The Minister and Assistant Minister strongly maintain their position on this important and landmark decision. They have also signalled their desire to go further to a rate of 25%, with the full support of a majority of Ministers, including strong support from the Chief Minister and Assistant Chief Minister (Senator P.F. Routier).

For that reason, Ministers are disappointed that the Panel has now chosen to be critical of this important measure. Had it felt so strongly that this proposal was wrong, or should be reversed, then an amendment could have been brought to the Budget 2015.

None has been brought, and the Minister for Treasury and Resources is surprised and disappointed by this criticism.

Secondly, members of the Panel have suggested that an additional Budget may be required. This has been the subject of a high-profile media report.

Under the Finance Law, any new Minister for Treasury and Resources could bring alternative  proposals  upon  his  or  her  appointment  for  an  additional  Budget, notwithstanding the potential serious negative effects this could have on stability and business confidence.

A supplementary Budget should not be necessary or required. The very raising of the suggestion could unintentionally send out a message of a lack of strength in Jersey's financial position. The opposite is the case. Whilst income projections have been reduced  following  a  continued  international  recession,  Jersey's  finances  remain incredibly strong. This is in part due to the Panel's own endorsement of Treasury policy of prudent fiscal and treasury management.

The majority of the Panel's concerns appear to relate to measures designed to ensure that there is a sufficient unallocated balance on the Consolidated Fund to provide for expenditure designed to secure an economic recovery.

The majority of these measures do not form part of the Budget 2015 report and proposition.  It  could  be  argued  that  the  current  legal  arrangements  for  the Consolidated Fund, which often has a balance in excess of £100 million, are overly restrictive. The requirement to have the cash immediately available even before a capital project gets underway, and that it should be held before a project is even tendered, needs review in the context of a medium-term financial planning model. There should be no compromise on financial prudence. However, the current practices may not reflect best value or best use of taxpayers' cashflow.

In any event, the schedule, which is provided for the States' information, could be altered by a new Council of Ministers.

In addition, it should be remembered that should income levels recover or improve over the cautious estimates, then some of the currently proposed initiatives may not be required.  The  Minister  has  continued  a  policy  of  prudence  and  transparency  in decision-making based on independent economic advice.

The  Minister  respectfully  suggests  that  instead  of  making  somewhat  polemical recommendations, the majority view of the Panel should endorse an approach that seeks more efficiency from States departments, puts more money into the pockets of lower-  and  middle-income  earners,  and  does  everything  possible  to  secure  a sustainable economic recovery.

For these reasons, whilst accepting the majority of the Panel's recommendations, the majority  of  Ministers  stand  by  proposals  as  being  not  only  deliverable,  but representing the best Budget possible for Jersey in 2015.

Findings

 

 

Key Findings

Comments

1

Problems arose in the income- forecasting process in 2013 which meant that measures were proposed (and ultimately adopted) in the 2014 Budget which should not have been. These circumstances should not be allowed to repeat themselves.

The report refers to problems in income forecasting in 2013. The Minister does not agree and remains committed to the decisions made in the 2014 Budget. Work is always ongoing to improve financial forecasting in all areas and to continue to provide the appropriate information and briefings to Ministers, Scrutiny and all other States members.

The initial response was very clear that the Panel was in full possession of all the latest forecasts and supporting papers prior to the debate of the Draft Budget 2014. All but one member of the Panel voted in favour of part (a) of that Budget proposition which authorised the rate reduction.

The aim of this measure was very clear and was carefully and specifically designed to put money into the pockets of middle- to low-income Islanders. Moreover, this was at a time when both households and the economy needed further support. In addition, as clearly explained, this was an important step in simplifying the marginal rate system of taxation.

The  Minister  and  Assistant  Minister  strongly  maintain  their position on this important and landmark decision. They have also signalled their desire to go further to a rate of 25%, with the full support of a majority of Ministers, including strong support from the Chief Minister and Assistant Chief Minister (Routier).

For that reason, Ministers are disappointed that the Panel has now chosen to be critical of this important measure. Had it felt so strongly that this proposal was wrong, or should be reversed, then an amendment could have been brought to Budget 2015.

None  has  been  brought,  and  the  Minister  for  Treasury  and Resources is surprised and disappointed by this criticism.

 

 

Key Findings

Comments

2

Decisions of the Assembly need to take into account the most recent and up-to-date information.

The Minister has always endeavoured to provide the Assembly with the latest information. A significant number of briefings and presentations have been provided for States members, both ahead of lodging the draft Budget 2015 and also immediately prior to the debate. This has been a consistent approach in past Budgets and for other debates.

The draft Budget 2015 incorporates the latest income tax forecasts from the ITFG and a full review of all other States income.

3

The timing and character of the proposed remedial measures undermine confidence in the States' financial strategy. It is vital that the measures are critically appraised in relation to their propensity for delivery.

Once the Income Tax forecasts had been confirmed, they were incorporated  in the  financial forecast. This  led  to  the  need  to propose measures that would maintain a positive balance on the Consolidated Fund. The measures themselves are not a departure from  the  States'  financial  strategy  nor  a  challenge  to  it.  The States'  income  has  grown  less  quickly  than  expected  and  the majority  of  these  measures,  as  identified  by  the  Fiscal  Policy Panel  (FPP),  do  not  impact  on  economic  activity,  which  is appropriate  given  the  economic  conditions.  The  FPP  also comment that these proposals do not have a significant impact on the structural position of the States' finances.

At the time of the draft Budget 2015 lodging, not all proposed measures were certain in their ability to be delivered. Since then, further discussions have been held, for example with the utility companies.  Amendments  were  lodged  by  the  Minister  for Treasury  and  Resources  to  reflect  the  outcomes  of  such discussions.

4

It remains unclear how proposed savings will be met to ensure the Liquid Waste Project can be funded in the way envisaged.

The exact details of the proposed savings are a matter for the Transport and Technical Services Department (TTS) to manage. The expected cost of repaying the principal sum and interest of £29 million  from  the  Currency  Fund  investment  has  been calculated at approximately £1.7 million per annum. Treasury and Resources have had discussions with TTS about how that cost could be met, and they have identified efficiencies in electrical, operational and maintenance costs which will contribute towards the repayments required once the new facility is complete.

5

There are reservations about how much confidence can be attached to the Draft Budget's anticipated level of sustained investment return performance on the Strategic Reserve.

It  is  acknowledged  that  there  are  many  factors  which  may influence the actual returns achieved from the Strategic Reserve Fund, and that the RPI(Y) actuals will differ from the assumptions used  in  the  rules.  Based  on  historical  Investment  return  rates achieved, the average Investment Returns for the last 3 years have been well in excess of these levels, with last year seeing overall fund growth of 14.1%.

Given  the  Fund's  strong  Investment  growth,  and  the  scenario testing  carried  out,  the  Treasury  feels  comfortable  that  the assumed rates used in the rules are reasonable assumptions to use, and below the 3 and 8 year historic averages achieved. We are also  starting  from  a  strong  position  based  on  the  excellent investment returns which have been banked for 2013.

 

 

Key Findings

Comments

6

Further work is required to ensure confidence in the expected spending envelope for the Hospital Project.

This is accepted. However, as was set out during evidence to the HSSH Panel, the Strategic Outline Case, is the accepted means of identifying an outline budget. The current Feasibility Study will report back with greater certainty (following the development of an Outline and then Full Business Case) for the expected capital spend  in  response  to  the  requirement (b)(i)  under  P.82/2012 – Health and Social Services: A New Way Forward'.

7

Whole-life costing should be fully embedded within project modelling and revenue budgets for the Hospital Project.

This is accepted; however, indicative revenue assessments were included  within  the  Strategic  Outline  Case  and  more  detailed assessments undertaken by the H&SS Department have informed development  of  the  Long-Term  Revenue  Planning  Review. Further  detailed  work  to  assess  the  revenue  implications, underpinned by detailed Acute Service Planning, is underway by H&SS as part of development of the Feasibility Study in response to part (b)(i) of P.82/2012, and this will inform the whole-life cost analysis within the Outline and Full Business Cases developed for the Future Hospital Project.

8

In order to ensure the efficacy of the fiscal stimulus programme, measures to stimulate or support the economy must meet the 3 Ts' test of fiscal stimulus.

The flexibility inherent to the capital programme being approved annually allows it to be utilised to vary the overall amount and timing of spending. This has been effectively used in recent years as  a  tool  to  provide  a  specific  programme  of  fiscal  stimulus through  targeted  capital  expenditure  on  projects  meeting  the 3 Ts'  criteria  of  the  stimulus  being  timely,  targeted  and temporary.

The specific Economic Stimulus Plan' approved by the States Assembly  in  P.55/2009  allocated  £44 million  from  the Stabilisation Fund for a one-off exercise designed to provide a discretionary and targeted programme of stimulus in response to the economic downturn. It was this plan that established the 3 Ts' test to ensure projects funded from the scheme met the objectives of  the  plan  in  providing  stimulus  to  the  Jersey  economy, supporting local employment and creating new opportunities for Jersey businesses at the point it was most needed.

However, an important distinction must be made between these types  of  one-off  exercises  and  what  the  capital  programme  is ultimately for. The primary objective of the capital programme is to meet service delivery needs, rather than principally as a source of fiscal stimulus or a tool for managing the economy. Some steps are nonetheless possible –

  • Consideration is being given to actively manage the tendering conditions  on  capital  projects  to  encourage  an  appropriate balance between on-Island and off-Island contractors, which will  help  manage  capacity  in  the  local  economy,  if appropriate.
  • Capital expenditure proposals in the next MTFP for 2016 to 2019 can also take account of both the prevailing capacity assessment and prevailing economic conditions.

 

 

Key Findings

Comments

 

 

Ongoing work on the management of the capital programme will still  consider  how  projects  meet  the  3 Ts'  but  the  focus  has shifted to looking at the likely impact on the local economy, and in particular the construction sector.

9

Actual performance in capital expenditure in recent years does not provide sufficient confidence that forecasted profiles for future capital expenditure will be achieved.

A great deal of progress has been made in recent years to improve the monitoring of capital projects and the quality of forecasts, as well as encouraging departments to utilise available resources to complete upfront planning and feasibility before allocations are approved  to  reduce  the  lag  between  approval  and  project commencement.

Departments are required to sign off business cases, including forecast cashflows for each project prior to its inclusion in the capital programme. Preparatory work at the planning and tender stages also includes detailed evaluation by quantity surveyors to breakdown  budgets  at  a  granular  level  and  verify  project timescales. Forecasts are based on this detailed understanding of each project.

The  forecasts  of  capital  spend  included  in  the  analysis  in Appendix 2 (page 65) are comparable to actual spend in recent years. It must also be noted that the 3 major capital projects for Housing, Liquid Waste Strategy and Future Hospital, for which detailed  preliminary  work  has  been  carried  out,  have  been included, which contribute to increasing overall forecast spend significantly in future years.

10

There is a risk that deficit-financing may become the norm for the States.

It is not clear what is meant by this finding. Clearly there is a risk, but the Panel do not explain the nature or scale of such a risk and whether either is changing. The Minister has already identified that by updating the fiscal rules and principles that the States applies,  this  risk  could  be  better  managed,  for  example  by committing  to  balance  budgets  over  the  economic  cycle.  The Panel's Adviser (MJO Consulting) recognises the arguments in favour of the States running deficits during a recession and a surplus in good times, but this does not imply that deficits will be the norm – if that was the case then budgets would not balance over the economic cycle.

11

The Long-Term Revenue Plan will provide directions to both the Budget setting process and the foundation for the MTFP and is of direct relevance to the debate on the Draft Budget.

The  Long-Term  Revenue  Plan  is  intended  to  be  a  working document and, as such, is best described as a process of Long- Term Revenue Planning rather than a finite report or plan.

A Long-Term Revenue Planning Review (R.136/2014) has been issued to States Members. Publication of this Review is intended to  set  out  the  range  of  major  issues  and  potential  policy considerations which might affect the next Strategic and Medium Term Financial Plan.

This  is  intended  to  assist  States  Members  as  to  their  future financial policy options and to inform the decisions that the next States Assembly faces.

 

 

Key Findings

Comments

12

An urgent recalibration of the MTFP is required and its redesign needs to be on the basis of a robust economic model and not simply as an accounting model.

The current MTFP is a 3 year plan which is clearly based on an initial set of economic assumptions and financial forecasts, that are then revised and updated during the life of that plan.

The Long-Term Revenue Planning (LTRP) Review provides a framework to look beyond the current MTFP period. The LTRP Review also provides the process by which an annual review of the  plan  and  a  re-assessment  of  the  financial  and  economic forecasts  can  be  made  and  revised  as  necessary.  The  annual Budget provides the mechanism by which the States can be asked to approve changes to the plan which take account of both the changing financial and economic position.

Both  the  LTRP  and  Budget  processes  are  supported  by independent economic advice from the FPP and the Budget is informed by the review by Scrutiny.

The  LTRP  process  will  provide  a  forward  framework  within which  the  next  MTFP  will  be  formulated.  The  economic assumptions and financial forecasts will be refreshed again as part of the work to develop a resource framework in the next Strategic Plan and to inform the next MTFP.

The  new  Council  of  Ministers  and  new  States  Assembly  will determine the appropriate economic and financial framework for the next MTFP and will have the opportunity to take into account any lessons learned from the first MTFP.

13

The time has come for a full debate on States' expenditure and taxation.

The draft Budget 2015 and all supporting papers have provided much of the information required to ensure that the new Council of Ministers and the new States Assembly are able to have the full debate the Panel suggests. The right time for this debate is when formulating the next MTFP, and the Minister has endeavoured to make all relevant information available in the public domain to ensure  that  the  debates  are  as  well  informed  as  possible.  In addition, by placing the FPP and their reporting procedures on a statutory basis, the next Assembly will have access to the best independent economic advice to inform that debate.

14

Further work is required in order to determine both the size of any structural deficit facing the Island and the strategy to be used to address it.

The FPP have already committed to providing further analysis of the States' structural position in advance of the next MTFP. The Scrutiny Panel should await this work before making judgements about  whether  there  is  a  structural  deficit,  its  scale  and  what remedial action may be required to address it and when.

RECOMMENDATIONS

 

 

Recommendations

To

Accept/ Reject

Comments

Target date of action/ completion

1

Prior to the lodging of the next MTFP, the Minister for Treasury and Resources should ensure that membership of the ITFG is formalised within a structured reporting framework and with formal minutes being made available to the Council of Ministers.

 

Accept in principle

The  Minister  is  happy  to  accept  the recommendation  in  principle,  but  is conscious  that  we  should  not  try  and commit the next Council of Ministers and Assembly to the existing fiscal framework. This will need to be updated in a way that makes  the  fiscal  framework  more transparent and robust and builds on the experience  of  recent  years.  The responsibilities  and  roles  in  income  tax (and  wider  financial)  forecasting  would need to be clear if the framework was to be strengthened and facilitate robust medium and  long-term  decision-making.  Should that  framework  include  the  ITFG  in  its current or similar role, then obviously the suggestions  of  the  Panel  would  be appropriate.

2015

2

The Minister for Treasury and Resources should ensure that the most up-to-date forecasts are used as the foundation for informing the Budget Setting Process.

 

Accept

The  Minister  has  always endeavoured to provide  the  Assembly  with  the  latest information,  and  will  continue  to  ensure that the most up-to-date forecasts are used to inform MTFP and Budget debates.

The  economic  assumptions  and  financial forecasts  will  be  revised  as  part  of  the process to develop the next MTFP 2016– 2019 and Budget 2016.

Ongoing

3

The Minister for Treasury and Resources should ensure that proposed base budget reductions are subject to independent validation in order to ensure both their deliverability and their ability to be monitored.

 

Accept

The proposed base budget reductions were included in the draft Budget 2015 with the appropriate  commitments  from  both Corporate  Management  Board  and  the Council of Minister. The timing of these savings may mean that departments are not able to make sustainable changes at short notice and they will need to make one-off savings to meet their targets, but they have committed  to  finding  sustainable  base budget  reductions  now  where  they  can. Budgets  will  be  removed  from Departments to match the savings agreed which negates the need for monitoring in the  short  term.   It  was  envisaged  that Treasury  would  have  discussions  with departments to understand how they will

2015

 

 

Recommendations

To

Accept/ Reject

Comments

Target date of action/ completion

 

 

 

 

be delivering their target savings and gain comfort over their deliverability, however it  is  not  for  us  to  suggest  that  the reductions  should  be  subject  to  further independent review or validation.

 

4

The Minister for Treasury and Resources should confirm with Departments that they have sufficient management and financial information to be able to monitor and report upon the proposed savings that the Draft Budget will require them to deliver.

 

Accept

The Treasury has focussed much attention in recent years on developing, monitoring and  reporting  management  information, including  how  MTFP  growth,  Carry- Forwards  and  Contingency  allocations have been spent. During the period of the Comprehensive  Spending  Review,  the monitoring  also  included  an  analysis  of how departments were progressing towards achieving their savings targets.

In  addition,  the  monthly  and  quarterly reports  produced  and  presented  to  the Corporate Management Board and Council of  Ministers  include  explanations  of  any significant budget variances and other key financial  and  non-financial  performance indicators.

All  departments  use  a  well-established financial  reporting  system  that  allows effective  and  consistent  financial information  to  be produced  and  reported across  the  organisation.  Departments  are responsible  for  monitoring  their  own budgets,  with  Accounting  Officers accountable  for  operating  within  the approved cash limit.

Departments must be given an appropriate level  of  flexibility  to  manage  savings within  their  overall  cash  limit.  The Minister  does  not  wish  to  issue  a prescriptive list of savings proposals.

June 2015

5

The Minister for Treasury and Resources should ensure that, prior to the lodging of the next MTFP, an assessment is undertaken of the ability of the Department of Transport and

 

Accept

Treasury will be continuing to discuss the necessary return to the Currency Fund for its  investment  in  Jersey's  infrastructure, and a plan of how those costs will be met will be agreed. TTS has already started to identify  efficiency  savings  that  will  be realised  once  the  new  plant  has  been completed.

July 2015

 

 

Recommendations

To

Accept/ Reject

Comments

Target date of action/ completion

 

Technical Services to identify savings in order to fund the Liquid Waste Project.

 

 

 

 

6

The Minister for Treasury and Resources should ensure that, prior to the lodging of the next MTFP, the feasibility of proposed investment returns on the Strategic Reserve is subject to further testing.

 

Accept

Accepting  that  the  returns  achieved  last year  were  well  in  excess  of  proposed levels,  Treasury  will  continue  to  closely monitor returns  on  the  Strategic  Reserve and will continue to assess the impact on returns  through  sensitivity  analysis  and scenario testing.

Quarterly from 2014

7

The Minister for Treasury and Resources should ensure that the capital cost of the Hospital Project is re-evaluated to ensure that there is appropriate precision within the expected spending envelope and that approved functionality synchronises with that expectation.

 

Accept

This  was  in  any  case  the  intent  of  the Feasibility Study currently underway and which  will  report  with  Outline  and  Full Business Cases in 2015.

2015

8

The Minister for Treasury and Resources should ensure that, prior to the lodging of the next MTFP, the full-life running costs of the Hospital Project are appropriately evaluated against the MTFP financing capability in respect of the Health and Social Services budget.

 

Accept

This  was  in  any  case  the  intent  of  the Feasibility Study currently underway and which  will  report  with  Outline  and  Full Business Cases in 2015.

2015

 

 

Recommendations

To

Accept/ Reject

Comments

Target date of action/ completion

9

The Minister for Treasury and Resources should review the legislative framework surrounding the capital allocation process to ensure it allows for the realistic delivery of the Capital Programme and for appropriate performance management arrangements to be put in place, with the outcome of this review to be reported to the States Assembly ahead of the lodging of the next MTFP.

 

Accept

The Treasury is committed to an ongoing review of the Public Finances (Jersey) Law 2005.  Following  the  significant  progress made  to  develop  medium  term  financial planning, further work is currently being undertaken  to  progress  options  for legislative changes that would improve the efficiency  and  effectiveness  of  financial management  with  the  States  whilst maintaining an appropriate framework of control and accountability.

An issue high on the agenda within this review  is  the  methodology  behind  the approval and allocation of capital funding. A number of options are being considered to  more  effectively  manage  States  of Jersey  resources  and  allow  departments sufficient flexibility to effectively manage the delivery of their capital projects.

Significant  progress  has  been  made  in recent  years  to  improve  the  quality  of capital project monitoring. The information supplied by departments and reported back to the Corporate Management Board and Council  of  Ministers  quarterly  has increased  to  include  project  specific updates on project status, reasons for any delays,  tender  status  and  projects cashflows.  A  lot  of  work  has  also  been done  in  conjunction  with  the  Economics Unit and the Jersey Construction Council to develop our understanding of the impact of  the  capital  programme  on  the  local economy.

The  Minister  will  report  back  to  the Assembly on progress early in 2015 as part of  the  development  of  the  next  MTFP process,  and  before  the  Assembly  are asked to consider the next Strategic Plan.

Ongoing

10

The Minister for Treasury and Resources should investigate the potential for the States to run a budget surplus of 0.5% or 1%

 

Accept in principle

The  principle  of  a  surplus  over  the economic cycle will be considered as part of the ongoing work on updating the fiscal framework. However, the suggested rule is not clear in terms of whether the reference point  is  annual  GVA/surplus  or  surplus that  over  the  cycle,  and  also  what  the

2015

 

 

Recommendations

To

Accept/ Reject

Comments

Target date of action/ completion

 

of GVA over the economic cycle, with the outcome of this work to be reported to the States Assembly ahead of the lodging of the next MTFP.

 

 

rationale is for such a rule. The reference to  the  Swedish  model  by  the  Panel's adviser is interesting, but no case is put forward  as  to  why  this  is  applicable  to Jersey  or  preferable  to  fiscal  rules elsewhere.

 

11

The Minister for Treasury and Resources should ensure that the Long- Term Revenue Plan is presented as soon as possible to the Assembly for Members' approval.

 

Accept

A  Long-Term  Revenue  Planning  Review has  been  issued  to  States  Members. Publication of this Review is intended to set  out  the  range  of  major  issues  and potential  policy  considerations  which might  affect  the  next  Strategic  and Medium  Term  Financial  Plan,  to  assist States Members as to their future financial policy options, and to inform the decisions that the next States Assembly will need to take.

September 2014

12

The Minister for Treasury and Resources should request that work begin immediately on the recalibration of the MTFP with a report on progress to be provided to the new Assembly by Christmas 2014.

 

Accept in principle

Resource Frame- work by early 2015

R.136/2014 provides States members with an  update  on  the  progress  of  the  Long- Term Revenue Planning review.

The  LTRP  process  will  continue  to  be developed  and  will  provide  a  forward framework  within  which  the  next  MTFP will  be  formulated.  The  economic assumptions and financial forecasts will be refreshed  again  as  part  of  the  work  to develop a Resource Framework in the next Strategic  Plan  and  to  inform  the  next MTFP.

The development of the new Strategic Plan is likely to include consultation with States members and the Public, and would need to be produced in January 2015 to allow an appropriate  period  before  lodging.  This process  and  timetable  will  need  to  be agreed by the new Council of Ministers.

Early 2015

13

The Minister for Treasury and Resources should ensure that, prior to the lodging of the next MTFP, Departments are requested to identify measures to

 

Accept

This  recommendation  is  welcomed  and will be one of many options that will need to be considered for the next MTFP. Any options  for  income  generation,  economic growth  or  improved  productivity  will reduce the need for reductions in services or increases in taxes.

In the same way that MTFP monitoring has

March 2015

 

 

Recommendations

To

Accept/ Reject

Comments

Target date of action/ completion

 

optimise income generation capability, with service delivery benchmarking to be used as a means of identifying wider options.

 

 

been introduced for CSR savings, MTFP growth, contingencies and carry-forwards, it  will  also  be  important  for  any  new measures  in  the  next  MTFP  to  be monitored.

 

14

The Minister for Treasury and Resources should ensure that, prior to the lodging of the next MTFP, the economic drivers that influence tax yields are re-evaluated, and that all sources of data (including Social Security contributions) are used to inform financial strategy and to determine the extent of any structural deficit.

 

Accept

The  Panel  and/or  their  advisers  seem  to have  misunderstood  the  forecasting process, as this recommendation is already part of the forecasting process. Economic drivers are re-evaluated for every forecast as is their relationship to the relevant tax bases. Tax yields are also forecast on the basis of the latest information and expected trends  in  the  various  income  tax exemptions and allowances. In addition, all available  data  (including  Social  Security contributions)  is  used  to  inform  this analysis.

March 2015

CONCLUSION

The Minister is encouraged by the fact that the Panel had clearly considered the Budget  2015  proposals  in  detail,  and  that  none  of  the  Panel's  key  findings  or recommendations  indicated  alternative  proposals.  Notwithstanding  the  Panel Chairman's continued criticism, no amendments have been made by her to alter the key proposals in Budget 2015. The Minister has no alternative but to conclude the Chairman does not have an alternative approach.

In addition, given that the Corporate Services Scrutiny Panel, the FPP and members who have reviewed the measures contained in Budget 2015, and with the exception of 2 members  who  have  proposed  amendments,  none  have  suggested  an  alternative course of action.

The  FPP  has  endorsed  the  Minister's  approach,  and  the  Minister  and  Assistant Minister  hope  that  this  gives  members  and  the  wider  Public  confidence  that  the proposed way forward is the right one.