Common Population Policy Review (S.R.2/2022): Response of the Chief Minister

Findings

Comments

1

The  second  principle  on  which  the policy is based negates the need for a future  government  to  set  meaningful targets to reduce reliance on net inward migration.

The Minister does not agree with this finding. The second  principle  is  included  to  ensure  the longevity of the overall aim by requiring ministers to have an underlying regard for the overall aim even in years when external pressures make it difficult to make progress on a reduction in net inward migration, and to return to the overall aim as soon as possible.

The current, rapidly evolving Ukrainian situation illustrates this point. Without the second principle, the government would be faced with a choice between  maintaining  its  population  policy  and declining to accept refugees, or disregarding a policy which has been agreed by the Assembly, This is perhaps an extreme example, but it shows how temporary exceptions, as provided for in the second principle, in no way diminish the overall

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need to reduce the number of inward migrants over the longer term.

2

The Common Population Policy does not meet the commitments made as a result of the States Assembly approval of  P.120/2020  –  Migration  and Population Data.

The  key  focus  of  P.120/2020  was  to  produce policies based on data. This is also a focus of the Common Population Policy and every effort will be  made  to  improve  available  data  to  provide meaningful forecasts to support future population policies.  

3

The Common Population Policy does not draw conclusions from the issues raised during the in-committee debate held on 24 March 2021 and does not advance  the  debate  on  population issues.

The  following  were  the  most  common issues/themes raised by Members during the in- committee debate:

1. Importance  of  education  and  skills  / growing our own talent
2. Housing / cost of housing
3. Economy and productivity
4. Communities / quality of life / happiness
5. Data / availability of 2021 Census data

Actions  to  be  taken  by  individual  Ministers  / collectively by the Council of Ministers in each of these areas are detailed in Section 7 of the report to P.116/2020

4

A lack of data to inform a Common Population Policy has been highlighted over an extended period, both prior to and  since  the  lodging  and  debate  of P.137/2020 – Migration Control Policy.

Agreed.

5

The  Government  is  presenting  two positions on the production of forecasts (that data is robust enough to support significant projects and, secondly, that sufficient  data  is  not  available  for  a population policy) and their use across government  which  cannot  be reconciled.

There  is  a  fundamental  difference  between  a forecast used as part of a planning assumption and a target or aim within a government policy.

All long-term projects (such as a new hospital or sewage  treatment  works)  require  planning assumptions.   Planning  assumptions  are formulated using the best evidence available at the time to predict what is likely to happen in the future. They take as a starting point the latest available data (in most cases the 2011 census), assume  that  current  government  policy  and external conditions will remain unchanged and then predict the change in the population under those  conditions. Depending  on  the  type  of project, assumptions will be made at the higher or lower end of the likely range of future values.

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To  adopt  planning  assumptions  as  population targets would assume that no policy actions will be taken that could change the size or make-up of the Island's population. That is not the approach proposed in the Common Population Policy.

The government is determined to have a proactive population policy that will progressively reduce the need for inward migration.

6

Assumptions for population growth are being  used  across  Government  for significant policies and projects.

7

A further four year wait for population planning  assumptions  to  be  made  is unacceptable.

The Policy does not suggest waiting for 4 years before taking any action.

8

It  is  a  reasonable  expectation  that population forecasts could and should be made before 2025 and as early as possible.

9

There are a number of ongoing pieces of work which will provide the data necessary  for  the  production  of forecasts  and  which  are  outlined  as forthcoming actions in 2022.

Actions underway which will improve the data available  to  support  the  development  of population  policies  include  the  Combined Employer Return (CER) which was rolled out in February  2022,  and  the  new  online  portal  for CHWL applications which is expected to begin gathering data from mid- 2022. This will assist in providing some of the data needed to develop more specific population policies and targets.

It is also important to acknowledge the unique circumstances arising from Covid and Brexit, that have led to significant disruption in the economy and population movements.

10

The  approval  of  P.120/2020 demonstrated the importance that the States Assembly attached to consistent and robust planning assumptions which would  underpin  decision-making  and provision of services.

Consistent and robust planning assumptions can only be produced using reliable and timely data. It has  not  been  possible  to  gather  sufficiently reliable  data  to  produce  those  assumptions, particularly  in  the  immediate  aftermath  of  the covid pandemic and Brexit.

Census  2021  results  will  start  that  process  by identifying the overall population, on that date, but more importantly will give us rich data in areas including the number of dwellings on the

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Island, occupancy, demographic and cultural mix etc.

11

Submissions made to the Migration and Population  Review  Panel  expressed disappointment and frustration with the lack of action taken.

It is noted that the submissions expressed a wide range of views.

12

While the Government has made the effort to consult with the community, no conclusions for tangible action have been drawn as a result.

The  consultation  generated  feedback  from hundreds of respondents, who advanced a wide range of views. The consultation identified strong support across all groups for government action to invest in lifelong learning and education policies and  these  themes  are  reflected  in  the  actions identified in the policy

13

There has been little public interest in the Common Population Policy since it was lodged on 10th December 2021.

Additional interest, reflected in subsequent media coverage, was generated as a result of the States Assembly debate

14

The Common Population Policy does not result in tangible action.

By the end of 2022 the new primary law will be in place, the new IT system operational and the 2021 census  data  analysed,  all  of  which  represent significant  investment  and  effort  and  progress towards the responsive population policy that the Island needs.

The policy sets out 44 specific actions which form part of the Government Plan 2022-25. These actions will contribute towards the overall aim of reducing reliance on inward migration.

15

If  the  purpose  of  the  Common Population  Policy  was  to  be  merely aspirational then it meets the Assistant Chief Minister's aim of being a starter for ten'.

16

The expectation of States Members, as a result of the approval of P.120/2020, was that more actions should have been taken by the end of the term of this Government.

The focus of P.120/2020 was the publication of a wide range of forecasts, upon which population targets could be developed. Forecasts rely on reliable  data  and  the  government  has  taken significant steps to improve the quality of data available going forwards.

17

There are concerns that issues (such as pay and conditions for teachers) which are  not  addressed  in  the  Common Population  Policy  could  hamper progress  against  the  future  actions listed.

Population  policy  cuts  across  all  Ministerial portfolios.  Some  feedback  given  to  Scrutiny centred on the needs of individual groups and not upon the overall needs of the population of the Island. Education and up-skilling children, young people and adults are key themes of the population policy and it is acknowledged that teachers are an essential resource in our education system. The

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same  can  be  said  of  nurses,  doctors,  social workers,  healthcare  workers  and  other professionals who all provide essential services supporting the physical and mental wellbeing of Islanders.

The needs of the whole community, the economy and the environment will need to be balanced in a successful population policy.

18

The Common Population Policy should have been made available for debate earlier in this term of office.

The need to divert policy resources to support the pandemic response has led to unavoidable delays across a range of projects including the Common Population Policy.

19

Delays to the lodging of the Common Population  Policy  meant  that  it  was presented too close to the end of this Government's term of office.

20

The  proximity  of  the  Common Population  Policy  to  the  end  of  the Government's term of office means that it is unable to commit to the progression of the various actions contained within it.

21

The  rationale  of  the  Common Population Policy is constrained by the lack of data that has informed it.

The rationale and overall aim of the Common Population Policy is clear. A range of specific and coherent actions are included in the initial policy but  it  is  acknowledged  that  these  actions  are constrained in some cases by the current lack of detailed and up to date data.

22

The Common Population Policy draws together a list of the projects, reviews and actions.

23

The  rationale  has  not  produced  a coherent plan for action which meets expectations.

24

The  Common  Population  Policy provides a long-term vision of reducing net inward migration.

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25

The  long-term  goal  of  the  Common Population Policy is to achieve net zero migration.

The long term goal is to achieve a stable and sustainable population for future generations.

26

There is a lack of clarity about how a reduction  in  reliance  on  net  inward migration would be achieved.

The report outlines a series of actions to help reduce reliance on inward migration, grouped into 3 headings:

• making better use of data

• encouraging  and  enhancing  the  productive activity of the resident population, and creating responsive controls in respect of the use of migrant workers

27

The Common Population Policy does not  and  cannot  commit  future Governments to the vision of achieving net inward migration.

As with all Assembly decisions, P.116/2021 could be amended or reversed by a future Assembly.

28

The  Common  Population  Policy identifies the need to strike a balance between the economy, the environment and the community.

Agreed.

29

The Common Population Policy does not identify how the balance between the economy, the environment and the community would be achieved.

It  is  unclear  what  metrics  the  Panel  considers could be used to measure whether such a balance had been achieved. The reference throughout the common Population Policy to achieving balance' refers to recognising that each of the economy, environment  and  community  are  equally important and not prioritising one over the others.

30

The Common Population Policy does not provide a clear direction to support business in longer term planning.

The policy clearly sets out that everyone in the Island has a part to play in reducing reliance on inward  migration.  Businesses  are  aware, following adoption of P.137/2020, that new time- limited statuses will be introduced in due course, just as they are aware of immigration rules and how these changed following Brexit.

One of the themes of the Common Population Policy  is  to  invest  in  the  local  workforce,  so government will be encouraging and supporting businesses to improve productivity, invest in new technology, train staff appropriately and improve their overall profitability

31

Business representatives welcomed the focus  on  training  and  education  but raised concerns about the achievability

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of delivering the actions set out in the Common Population Policy.

32

The  Common  Population  Policy identifies the importance of the Island's environment, however, does very little to  indicate  how  to  mitigate  the population's impact upon it.

Any  actions  which  reduce  reliance  on  inward migration will contribute towards stabilising the Island's population, which in turn will help to safeguard the natural environment.

33

The  Common  Population  Policy indicates  that  Jersey  should  be welcoming to those who come to live and work here but does not suggest a Government-led strategy for doing so.

A review of migrant rights is scheduled for late 2022 / early 2023. This will establish what direct action is appropriate and how this might be paid for.

It is accepted that, in a global market for labour, the  Island's  offering  must  be  attractive, competitive and fair in order to persuade workers with  essential  skills  to  make  Jersey  their destination of choice.

34

The Common Population Policy does not address the rights of migrants and how migrant workers might be treated unfairly by employers.

Existing Employment Law already deals with the treatment of all employees by their employers.

Some  very  specific  points  were  raised  by  one contributor to the review and these have been shared with the Minister for Home Affairs and the Minister for Social Security.

35

More should be done to consult young people  to  understand  their  views  on future  iterations  of  the  Common Population Policy.

The  government  is  committed  to  appropriate engagement and consultation with children and young people as the Common Population Policy is developed.  

Recommendations

To

Accept/ Reject

Comments

Target date of action/ completi

on

1

The Council of Ministers must reconsider the need for  the  second  principle of  the  Common Population  Policy  and adjust  the  principles  on which  the  Common Population  Policy  is based  to  provide  the

CM

Reject

As  the  Assistant  Chief  Minister explained  in  the  debate,  the  second principle acknowledges that there may be circumstances where it is necessary to pause  the  drive  to  reduce  inward migration  in  response  to  significant external pressures, but that this in no way negates  the  overarching  aim  of  the policy.

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Comments

Target date of action/ completi

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commitment  needed  to achieve its stated goal.

The current  situation,  where Jersey  is planning to welcome a number (as yet unquantified)  of  Ukrainian  refugees, would  constitute  such  an  external pressure  and  shows  that  these  dual principles are necessary.

2

The Council of Ministers must revisit P.120/2020 – Migration and Population Data and seek to act on the commitments laid out and  approved  by  the States Assembly for the production of a Common Population Policy.

CM

Partially Accept

The focus of P.120/2020, in identifying a wide range of statistics and forecasts to use  as  the  basis  for  setting  future population policy, is also a key focus of the  Common  Population  Policy.  As such, there is no need to revisit P.120/20, as  it  is  already  agreed  that  these principles will be carried forward into future policies.

The Council of Ministers will ensure that this recommendation is passed on to its successor.

June 2022

3

The Council of Ministers must  ensure  that  the commitment made for the full  implementation  and introduction of a new IT system  to  manage Control  of Housing  and Work applications and a new Combined Employer Return  system  is honoured.

CM T& R M

Accept

The new IT system to manage Control of Housing  and  Work  applications  is nearing  completion  and  due  to  start operation with current CHWL statuses by end of Q3 2022.

The  combined  Employer  Return  is already  in  effect,  having  opened  for submissions on 2 February 2022.

Full implementation of both systems is expected by the end of 2022

31/12/20 22

4

The Council of Ministers should  endeavour  to bring  forward  planning assumptions  for population  and  net migration targets as soon as  possible  in  the  next term of office and by no later  than  December 2023.

CM

Partially Accept

The  need  to  build  a  more  detailed population  policy  on  accurate  data  is fully acknowledged. It will be for the next Council of Ministers to determine the point at  which it is  able to bring forward  those  more  detailed  policies, and whether such policies should include numerical migration targets.

The Council of Ministers will ensure that this recommendation is passed on to its successor.

June 2022

Recommendations

To

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Comments

Target date of action/ completi

on

5

The  future  Council  of Ministers  must  ensure that the next iteration of the Common Population Policy  is  not  merely aspirational.

CM

Partially Accept

The  Common  Population  Policy includes  the  clear  objective  of progressively  reducing  reliance  on inward migration.

Action  taken  by  this  Council  of Ministers has ensured that every future Council has a legal obligation to update its population policy on an annual basis.

It  will  be  up  to  the  next  Council  of Ministers  to  determine  their  priorities but it is  therefore anticipated that the ongoing  development  of  a  common population policy will be a high priority.

The Council of Ministers will ensure that this recommendation is passed on to its successor.

June 2022

6

The Council of Ministers must take decisive action flowing  from  the  views expressed during its own consultation  to  provide the next iteration of the Common  Population Policy.

CM

Accept

Many different and conflicting opinions were expressed during the consultation and it was clear that different parts of the community hold diverse views regarding Jersey's population.

An area of strong agreement across all sectors was the need to invest in skills training,  lifelong  learning  and  the education  system.   The  Council  of Ministers  is  already  committed  to actions in these areas.

The Council of Ministers will ensure that this recommendation is passed on to its successor.

June 2022

7

The Council of Ministers must  provide  clarity  for the  future  by  revisiting the  principles  of  the Common  Population Policy  to  make  it  clear how  it  will  achieve  its stated  goal  of  reducing reliance  on  net  inward migration.

CM

Accept

The Common Population Policy sets out very clear principles and initial areas for action to achieve its overall goal.

It is acknowledged that progress must be made on data collection in order to fully inform  more  detailed  actions  under future population policies.

June 2022

Recommendations

To

Accept/ Reject

Comments

Target date of action/ completi

on

It is intended that better data will enable future  Councils  of  Ministers  to  better understand population issues, test the likely  impacts  of  different  policy changes and measure the effects of those that are implemented.

The Council of Ministers will ensure that this recommendation is passed on to its successor.

8

The Council of Ministers must commit to including strategies  within  any future  Common Population  Policy  to protect  the  natural environment.

CM

Neither accept nor reject

The next Council of Ministers will need to  decide  if  strategies  to  protect  the natural environment should be included within the population policy.

Environmental policies per se will not have any impact on the number of people living in Jersey.

The Council of Ministers will ensure that this recommendation is passed on to its successor.

June 2022

9

The  next  Council  of Ministers  must  provide clear  actions  for achieving  a  balance between  the environment,  the economy  and  the community.

CM

Accept

Although this will be a matter for future Councils,  the  current  Council  would support this position.

The Council of Ministers will ensure that this recommendation is passed on to its successor

June 2022

10

The  future  Council  of Ministers  must  ensure that  children  and  young people are fully consulted when producing updated Common  Population Policies.

CM

Accept

Consultation  will  be  required  with  a wide group of stakeholders, which will include children and young people.

The Council of Ministers will ensure that this recommendation is passed on to its successor

June 2022

11

The  next  Council  of Ministers should consider ratifying the International Convention  for  the Protection of the Rights of Migrant Workers and their Families.

CM

Reject

Jersey is not a member of the United Nations  and  is  not  able  to  ratify conventions in its own name.

UN conventions, and more specifically human rights conventions, can only be applied to Jersey by an extension of the UK's ratification, in its capacity as the

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Crown  Dependencies'  representative (and as a UN State Party).

The UK has not ratified this convention.