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DAC Members' net ODA 1990 - 2004 and
DAC Secretariat simulations of net ODA to 2006 and 2010
0.40
0.36 140
0.35
0.33 0.30 120
0.30
ODA as a % 0.25 100
0.25 of GNI
(left scale)
80
0.20 0.22
Total ODA 60
0.15 (right scale)
0.10 40
0.05 Total ODA to Africa 20 (right scale)
0.00 0
On the assumption that the major OECD donors deliver on their public statements, the latest simulation by the DAC Secretariat indicates that Official Development Assistance from the main OECD donors will increase by USD dollars 50 billion in round numbers.
This would take ODA from a little under USD 80 billion in 2004 to approaching USD 130 billion in 2010.
The sharpest percentage increase is likely to be in Africa, to the tune of an additional USD 25 billion, taking the level of aid to that continent alone to around USD 50 billion in 2010. Already, several OECD countries have announced that they will double their own aid to Africa over the next few years.
In other words we can expect to see the largest expansion in ODA as measured by the OECD DAC since the committee was formed in 1960, even though as a proportion of Gross National Income, the level in 2010 (0.36% for OECD DAC members as a whole) remains well below the level of over 0.50% achieved in the early years of the Committee's existence.
These figures are impressive, but they do need to be treated with some caution. For many donors they imply that aid will be perhaps the most rapidly rising element of public spending year after year. Given the pressures on public budgets in many OECD countries, delivering such increases will be a challenge.
OECD-DAC Secretariat Simulation of DAC Members' Net ODA Volumes in 2006 and 2010
In constant 2004 US$ million
The data below are not forecasts, but Secretariat projections based on public announcements by member countries of the OECD's Development Assistance Committee (DAC). The key figures from such announcements are shown as "Assumptions". To calculate net ODA and ODA/GNI ratios requires projections for GNI for 2006 and 2010. For 2006 the projections of real growth for each country are taken from the OECD Economic Outlook No. 77 (May 2005) Annex Table 1. For the period 2006-10, real annual GNI growth of 2% is assumed for all countries. While calculations have been discussed at technical level with national authorities, the DAC Secretariat is responsible for the methodology and the final published results.
20 September 2005
Country | 2004 | Assumptions | 2006 | 2010 | |||||
Net ODA (provisional) | ODA/GNI | Net ODA | ODA/GNI | Real change in ODA compared with 2004 | Net ODA | ODA/GNI | Real change in ODA compared with 2004 | ||
($ m) Per cent | ($ m) Per cent | ||||||||
Austria Belgium 1 Denmark Finland 1 2 France 1 Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg 1 Netherlands Portugal 3 Spain 1 2 Sweden United Kingdom 1 2 | 678 1 463 2 037 655 8 475 7 534 465 586 2 462 241 4 235 1 031 2 547 2 722 7 836 | 0.23% 0.41% 0.85% 0.35% 0.42% 0.28% 0.23% 0.39% 0.15% 0.85% 0.74% 0.63% 0.26% 0.78% 0.36% | 0.33% in 2006 and 0.51% in 2010 0.7% in 2010 Minimum 0.8% 0.44% in 2007 and 0.7% in 2010 0.5% in 2007 and 0.7% in 2012 0.33% in 2006 and 0.51% in 2010 0.33% in 2006 and 0.51% in 2010 0.5% in 2007 and 0.7% in 2012 0.33% in 2006 and 0.51% in 2010 1% in 2009 Minimum 0.8% 7 0.33% in 2006 and 0.51% in 2010 0.5% in 2008 and 0.7% in 2012 1% in 2006 0.47% in 2007-08 and 0.7% in 2013 | 1 000 1 815 2 037 797 9 877 9 271 715 731 5 537 275 4 801 558 3 446 3 719 9 553 | 0.33% 0.49% 0.81% 0.41% 0.47% 0.33% 0.33% 0.44% 0.33% 0.91% 0.82% 0.33% 0.33% 1.00% 0.42% | 322 48% 351 24% 0 0% 141 22% 1 403 17% 1 737 23% 251 54% 146 25% 3 075 125% 34 14% 567 13% - 474 -46% 899 35% 997 37% 1 716 22% | 1 673 2 807 2 185 1 475 13 885 15 509 1 196 1 072 9 262 327 5 070 933 6 687 4 025 14 525 | 0.51% 0.70% 0.80% 0.70% 0.61% 0.51% 0.51% 0.60% 0.51% 1.00% 0.80% 0.51% 0.59% 1.00% 0.59% | 995 147% 1 344 92% 148 7% 820 125% 5 410 64% 7 975 106% 732 158% 486 83% 6 801 276% 87 36% 836 20% - 98 -10% 4 140 163% 1 303 48% 6 689 85% |
EU Members, Total | 42 966 | 0.35% |
| 54 132 | 0.43% | 11 166 26% | 80 633 | 0.59% | 37 667 88% |
Australia Canada Japan 4 New Zealand Norway Switzerland 5 United States 6 | 1 465 2 537 8 859 210 2 200 1 545 18 999 | 0.25% 0.26% 0.19% 0.23% 0.87% 0.41% 0.16% | 0.36% in 2010 8% annual increase until 2010 See footnote 4 0.27% in 2005-06 and 0.28% in 2007-08 1% over 2006-09 See footnote 5 See footnote 6 | 1 768 2 959 9 859 262 2 657 1 596 24 000 | 0.28% 0.29% 0.20% 0.27% 1.00% 0.41% 0.19% | 303 21% 422 17% 1 000 11% 51 24% 458 21% 51 3% 26% 5 001 | 2 460 4 026 11 859 294 2 876 1 728 24 000 | 0.36% 0.36% 0.22% 0.28% 1.00% 0.41% 0.18% | 995 68% 1 489 59% 3 000 34% 84 40% 677 31% 183 12% 26% 5 001 |
DAC Members, Total | 78 780 | 0.25% |
| 97 233 | 0.30% | 18 453 23% | 127 876 | 0.36% | 49 096 62% |
1 ODA/GNI ratios interpolated between 2004 and year target scheduled to be attained.
2 Finland aim to achieve 0.7% by 2010 'subject to economic circumstances'; Spain aim for a minimum of 0.5% by 2008, with the intention then to aim for 0.7% by 2012; the UK has announced a timetable to reach 0.7% by 2013.
3 Portugal's ODA in 2004 was above trend due to an exceptional debt relief operation for Angola.
4 Japan intends to increase its ODA volume by $10 billion in aggregate over the next five years (2005 - 2009) compared to its net ODA in 2004. The Secretariat's estimate assumes $1 billion extra in 2006 and $3 billion extra in 2010. 5 Switzerland's ODA will increase by 8% in nominal terms from 2005 to 2008. A new goal will be determined for the following years. The Secretariat's estimate assumes maintenance of 0.41% of GNI in 2006 and 2010.
6 Secretariat estimate based on 2004 ODA plus $5 billion per annum to cover the Gleneagles G8 commitments on increased aid to Africa, Millennium Challenge Account, and initiatives on HIV/AIDS, malaria and humanitarian aid.
7 The Netherlands' ODA in 2004 was below its target, as India repaid all its outstanding Dutch aid loans. The Netherlands intends to maintain its target of 0.8% of GNI, on average, over the period 2004-07.