Stats Unit Housing Needs Survey 2005 - 2009

Statistics Unit www.gov.je/statistics

Jersey's Housing Requirements 2005-2009

Report on the 2004 Housing Needs Survey Executive Summary

This  report  was  jointly  commissioned  by  the  States  of  Jersey  Housing  and  Planning  and Environment Departments to assist their understanding of future needs. All aspects of the survey, analysis  and  compilation  of  the  report  were  conducted  independently  by  the  States  of  Jersey Statistics Unit.

The report provides detailed estimates of Jersey's potential housing requirements for 2005 to 2009, and as such represents an update of the study conducted in 2000 for the preceding five years[1].

The study is based on a sample survey of private households in Jersey. The results presented are derived  from  almost  3,000  respondent  households,  scaled  up  to  the  total  Island  population of households using Census data.

It should be emphasised that these results constitute potential housing requirements based on the expressed aspirations of households in late 2004 and as such represents a point in time estimate of the dynamic housing market.

Whether households are able to move as they wish will depend on many factors including the availability  of  existing  and  new  properties  (including  those  under  construction),  economic circumstances and the degree to which people change their mind. Where households can and do move it will free up properties for others to occupy and thus create the supply. However, where households cannot move, the demand from others will have to be met from other sources. As such the results present a complex jigsaw where all the pieces (i.e. moves) are fitting together; the extent to which moves can and do take place will determine whether the potential shortfalls and surpluses actually occur.

Results are presented in terms of the supply and demand of dwelling units by: type (flat, house); size (number of bedrooms); and tenure (locally  and non-locally qualified  under the Housing Law). Forecast surpluses and shortfalls are derived from the differences between supply and demand in each of these categories.

The effect of currently non-qualified households gaining housing qualifications during the next five-year period is examined under two models: the current 15-year rule being maintained until 2009; and a reduction of the 15-year rule by 1 year per annum, resulting in a 10-year qualification period by 2009. Furthermore, to reflect the average level of net migration over the previous four years[2], the basic analysis is conducted using an assumption of zero net migration. However, results are also presented for other scenarios of net inward and outward migration. Finally, an indication of expressed affordability is presented.

Key findings

• total demand for dwellings over the next five-year period is estimated to be about 12,500 with total potential supply slightly greater than total demand, at about 12,700 (Tables 1 and 2). These figures correspond to more than a third of the current total dwelling stock.
• simply subtracting supply from demand in the various categories of dwelling type and size (Table 3) highlights a large potential surplus of 1-bedroom accommodation (of 1,375 units) but sizeable potential shortfalls in larger sized houses and in sheltered accommodation.
• however, separating supply and demand by tenure of dwellings indicates the effective surpluses and shortfalls in each category.
• notable potential shortfalls occur in 2-, 3- and 4-bedroom owner-occupier properties (Table 7) comprising about 205 flats (2- and 3-bedroom), 1,370 houses and an additional requirement of some 250 properties of 1- and 2-bedroom sheltered accommodation[1].
• demand for such owner-occupier properties is driven by:
  • current owner-occupier households wishing to increase their dwelling size;
  • new forming households, presently contained within existing larger households, wanting their own accommodation;
  • households in qualified private rental accommodation wishing to purchase.
• a potential surplus of 1-bedroom flats and houses in all qualification and tenure categories, but dependent on the complementary availability of larger accommodation so that households can move.
• a potential shortfall of larger-sized properties in the qualified social rental sector.

Effect of households gaining residential qualification

• the effect of currently non-qualified households gaining housing qualifications over the five years to 2009 under the current 15-year rule is to increase the potential shortfall in 2-, 3- and 4-bedroom owner-occupier properties by about 10%, corresponding to 155 dwellings (Table 9).
• the addition of those households qualifying over the next five years under the current 15-year rule to the results of the survey gives a total shortfall in 2-, 3- and 4-bedroom owner-occupier properties of some 1,730 dwelling units between 2005 and 2009.
• total potential requirement of some 2,000 owner-occupier and sheltered dwellings over the next 5 years which cannot be met by existing stock.

Sensitivity to qualification period and migration

• reducing the qualification period from the current 15 years to 10 years by 2009 increases the potential shortfall in 2-, 3- and 4-bedroom owner-occupier properties by a further 255 units (Tables 9 and 10).
• the effect of net inward migration is to increase the potential shortfall in 2-, 3- and 4-bedroom owner-occupier accommodation by about 3% (corresponding to 45 properties over 5 years) for every 100 net inward-migrant households per year (Table 11).

Timing

• More than 80% of the potential shortfall in owner-occupier properties is based on households desiring accommodation over the next 2 years, and as such is likely to represent robust data reflecting the firmly-held current aspirations, expectations and needs of households (Table 8).

Affordability

• All households expressing a desire to move within Jersey were asked to indicate the approximate cost of the property they were looking to purchase. These data demonstrate that there is generally a good understanding of property prices in Jersey. For example, people in existing properties indicated prices that were on average within 10% of the mean selling price in 2004; whilst those looking to form new households were generally very close to the lower end of the inter-quartile range[2], indicating an understanding that they would be looking at the lower-cost end of their preferred dwelling type (Table 12).

Context

The forecast total shortfall in the qualified sector is almost a factor of two lower (about 1,730 in total dwelling units compared to 3,180, excluding sheltered accommodation) than in the previous round of the survey which covered the period 2000-2005. Previous potential shortfalls in smaller- sized owner-occupier and social-rented accommodation are now estimated to be much lower or to have turned into potential surpluses.

The scale of both the potential supply and demand is considerably lower than in the previous round of the survey, in which the overall five-year demand was estimated at almost 20,000 dwellings.

The increased potential shortfall in larger-sized owner-occupier houses determined from this latest round of the survey is suggestive of a degree of confidence in the Island's economy and perhaps reflects the price-stability and recently observed increased turnover in the housing market[3].

Jersey's Housing Requirements 2005-2009

Report on the 2004 Housing Needs Survey

Overview

This report provides estimates of Jersey's potential housing requirements for the medium-term (the five-year period 2005 to 2009, inclusive) in terms of type, tenure and size of dwelling unit. The analysis is based upon a sample survey of private households. The following issues are presented:

• estimates of the demand for housing by size, type and tenure[1] and of the supply of housing from the existing stock;
• the effect of currently non-residentially qualified households gaining qualification status;
• the additional housing requirement resulting from five migration scenarios; the basic analysis presented in detail is based on an assumption of zero net migration, reflecting the average annual level since 2001. Additional analysis shows the impact of net migration of ±50 and ±100 households per year;
• affordability in terms of expressed anticipated purchase cost.

This study provides a detailed picture of the supply and demand at the end of 2004. It must be emphasised that the supply component does not include any new dwellings available at or completed since that time, nor any subsequent planned or approved developments.

Survey and Analysis

A postal questionnaire was sent out in which households were asked to express their anticipated housing requirements over the following five years.

Sampling and response rate

A total of 6,100 households were sampled (representing about a sixth of all private households in Jersey). This total comprised the following tenure categories:

• 3,950 Owner-occupier and private rental (qualified) households
• 620 Households receiving States Rental Abatement
• 260 Households receiving States Rental Rebate
• 1,050 Registered lodging house households
• 220 Private lodger (non-qualified) households.

A total of 2,880 completed questionnaires were returned, representing an overall response rate of around 50%. The response rate excluding the category of registered lodging houses (which required a dedicated targeting strategy) was 55%.

Survey data and weighting

The results from respondent households were raised from the survey sample on an area basis (urban, semi-urban and rural[2]) to 2001 Census totals according to residential qualification and tenure type, dwelling type, and the presence of children in the household.

Supply and Demand Analysis

Supply and demand analysis is presented from two perspectives:

1. Type and size of dwelling;
2. Tenure and size of dwelling.

The latter perspective allows potential shortfalls and surpluses to be highlighted under the current regime of housing regulations, and as such is the most relevant for policy purposes. The basic analysis from this perspective is then extended to examine specific scenarios of:

II.a Non-qualified households gaining residential qualifications during the five-year period,

particularly under continuation of the current 15-year rule.

II.b Annual net migration scenarios of: +50 and +100 households into the Island; -50 and -100

households out of the Island. Other models of net migration may be derived using these analyses.

Definitions

The potential supply and demand is based on the following categories of household:

Supply

• Existing: dwelling units becoming available due to all member of existing households moving together within Jersey.
• Leaving: dwelling units becoming available due to all members of existing households expressing an intention to moving together outside of Jersey.
• Death and care: dwelling units becoming available due to occupants dying or moving into extended care facilities. The level of supply is estimated from an approximation of the number of deaths in Jersey of pensioners living alone, distributions of such pensioners by type, size and tenure of dwelling (as recorded by the 2001 Jersey Census) and the results of a post-Census vacant dwelling survey. As such, the estimates of supply from this source should be considered as upper bounds.
• Wishing: dwelling units becoming available due to households expressing a wish to move within Jersey, but for stated reasons are unable to do so.

Demand

• Existing:  dwelling units required due to all member of existing households moving together within Jersey.
• Concealed: new forming households (presently "concealed" within existing households) emerging within the Island. e.g. family members leaving home and establishing separate households. In the analysis allowance has been made for those households formed by members from separate households in Jersey joining to form one household.
• In-migrants: migrants arriving from outside of Jersey to establish households; in the case of the zero net migration model, the number of in-migrant households is set equal to those leaving. It is important to recall that as new people come to the Island they are in the main replacing others who are leaving for a variety of reasons[3].
• Wishing: households wishing to move within Jersey, but for stated reasons are unable to do so.

1. Type and Size of dwelling unit

Tables 1 and 2 present the estimated potential housing supply and demand, respectively, over the next  five  years[4].  The  tables  breakdown  both  supply  and  demand  by  dwelling  type  (sheltered accommodation, flats and houses[5]) and size (number of bedrooms).

Table 1 Five-year supply by type and size of dwelling unit.

Sheltered

1 bed  10  -  60  -  70

2 bed   -  -  25  -  25 Flat

1 bed  1,645  725  875  875  4,120

2 bed  1,575  395  55  535  2,560

3 bed  200  85  5  40  330

4 bed  25  +  20  45 5+ bed     -

House

1 bed  85   -  230  10  325 2 bed   670   120  445  120  1,360 3 bed   1,740   455  150  510  2,855 4 bed   510   200  40  85  835 5+ bed  135   30  20  -  180

Total   6,600  2,005  1,900  2,195  12,700 Table 2 Five-year demand by type and size of dwelling unit.

Sheltered

1 bed  115  55   -  30   200

2 bed   50  65   -  35  145 Flat

1 bed  735  415  890  715  2,755

2 bed  1,105  545  310  485  2,450

3 bed  220  80  50  190  540

4 bed  35  10  20  10  75 5+ bed  15   -   -  20  30

House

1 bed   45  10   -   -  55 2 bed  820  260  80  165  1,325 3 bed   2,200  245  300  295  3,040 4 bed  1,070  35  200  205  1,515 5+ bed 180 - 160 45 385 Total   6,600  1,720  2,005  2,195  12,515

The total potential supply of all units is 12,700. This figure is almost 200 greater than the total demand, indicating that the overall supply over the next five years for all types and sizes of housing combined is marginally greater than the demand. These findings differ from the previous five-year period when a considerably greater scale of supply and demand was recorded (a five-year turnover of around 19,000 dwelling units) and the overall shortfall of 1,900 dwelling units recorded is in contrast to the small surplus noted by the present survey.

Over the next five years it is forecast that approximately half of the total supply and demand for dwelling units is caused by existing' households planning to move within Jersey, corresponding to more than a sixth of all households. The largest contributor to potential supply is from existing' households moving out of 1- and 2-bedroom flats and 3-bedroom houses. The complementary large demand is for 2-bedroom flats and 2-, 3- and 4-bedroom houses.

Table 3 presents a breakdown of the difference between the supply and demand for each dwelling type according to size (derived by subtracting Table 1 from Table 2). The table highlights surpluses and shortfalls within each dwelling type and size category.

Table 3 Five-year requirement (supply-demand) by type and size of dwelling unit.

Sheltered

1 bed  70  200  -  (130)

2 bed  25  145  -  (120) Flat

1 bed  4,120  2,755  1,365  - 2 bed  2,560  2,450  110  - 3 bed  330  540  -  (210) 4 bed  45  75  -  (30) 5+ bed  -  30  -  (30)

House

1 bed  325  55  270  - 2 bed  1,360  1,325  35  - 3 bed  2,855  3,040  -  (185) 4 bed  835  1,515  -  (680) 5+ bed 180 385 - (205) Total  12,700  12,515  1,780  (1,595)

Overall, smaller-sized dwelling units show a potential surplus, whilst larger-sized units (3- bedroom or greater) highlight a possible shortfall. The largest surplus is in 1-bedroom flats, whilst the largest shortfall is in 4-bedroom houses. A shortfall in 1- and 2-bedroom sheltered accommodation is evident.

The sum of all shortfalls of dwelling units over the next five years is 1,595. Surpluses in one category may potentially be used to off-set shortfalls in neighbouring categories. However, Table 3 shows that the shortfalls and surpluses occur in distinct groups. The surpluses of 1-bedroom flats and houses are unlikely to satisfy the shortfalls in larger-sized units, apart from (with suitable modifications) potentially some of the demand for sheltered units.

2. Tenure and Size of Dwelling Unit

Tables 1 to 3 present an overview. However, in order to understand and identify where surpluses and shortfalls may potentially occur, it is necessary to look at the data by tenure as well as size.

The potential supply and demand of dwelling units by tenure and size are presented in Tables 4 and 5, respectively. In both tables, the three columns to the left of the hatched line relate to tenure categories  in  the  residentially  qualified  sector;  the  three  columns  to  the  right  represent  the non-qualified sector.

Table 4 Five-year supply by tenure and size of dwelling unit.

Qualified sector   Non-qualified sector

Registered

Owner-  Social  Private  Private  Staff Tenure/Size  Lodging  Total occupier  rental  rental  lodging  service

• House

Existing  

1 bed  230  240  630   180  430  35  1,745 2 bed  820  485  615   130  160  35  2,245 3 bed  1,050  315  390   110  -  75  1,940 4 bed  300  45  90   75  -  25  535 5+ bed  115  -  15   -  -  -  135

Leaving  

1 bed  40  -  105   215  310  55  725 2 bed  170  105  100   125  20  -  520 3 bed  275  70  125   40  -  25  540 4 bed  130  -  40   25  -  -  195 5+ bed  30  -  -   -  -  -  30

Death Care  

1 bed  320  580  250   10  5  -  1,160 2 bed  460  5  60   -  -  -  525 3 bed  140  -  10   -  -  -  150 4 bed  40  -  +   -  -  -  45 5+ bed  15  -  +   -  -  -  20

Wishing  

1 bed  55  110  165   285  235  35  885 2 bed  85  205  205   90  55  20  655 3 bed  190  130  165   25  18  25  550 4 bed  55  10  20   20  -  -  105 5+ bed  -  -  -   -  -  -  -

TOTAL  

1 bed  645  925  1,150   690  975  125  4,510 2 bed  1,535  795  980   345  235  55  3,945 3 bed  1,660  515  690   175  20  120  3,180 4 bed  530  55  155   115  -  25  880 5+ bed  160  -  15   -  -  -  180

Total  4,530  2,290  3,000 1,325  1,225  325  12,700

Table 5 Five-year demand by tenure and size of dwelling unit.

Qualified sector   Non-qualified sector

Registered

Owner  Social  Private  Private  Staff Tenure/Size  Lodging  Total occupier  rental  rental  lodging  service

• House

Existing  

1 bed   80  315  355 125  20  -   900 2 bed   890  295  345 440  -  -  1,975 3 bed   1,550  425  215 215  20  -   2,425 4 bed   840  75   30 155  -  -  1,105 5+ bed  140  10  45 -  -  -  195

Concealed  

1 bed  125  70  285   -  -   -  480 2 bed  565  55  235   10  -  -  865 3 bed  280  -  40   -  -  -  325 4 bed  35  10  -   -  -  -  45 5+ bed   -   -   - -  -  -  -

In-migrants  

1 bed  15  20  70   150  485  150  890 2 bed  15  15  110   170  85  -  390 3 bed  45  25  170   30  20  55  350 4 bed  120  -  70   30  -  -  220 5+ bed  35  -  40   30  -  55  160

Wishing  

1 bed   230  45  20 410  35  -  745 2 bed  445  -  35 160  40  -  685 3 bed  295  45  10 130  -  -  485 4 bed  220  -  - -  -  -  220 5+ bed  45  -  - 20  -  -  65

TOTAL  

1 bed  450  455  730 685  540  150  3,010 2 bed  1,915  370  725 785  125  -  3,920 3 bed  2,170   495   440 375  40  55  3,580 4 bed  1,215   90   100 185  -  -  1,590 5+ bed  220   10  85 50  -  55  420

Total   5,970  1,415  2,080 2,075  705  265  12,515

The differences between supply and demand, indicating forecast surpluses and shortfalls within each tenure and size category, are shown in Table 6. Due to the constraints imposed under the housing regulations, the total of shortfalls by tenure is greater than the total under analysis purely by dwelling type (approximately 2,200 as opposed to 1,600).

The  distribution  of  potential  shortfalls  is  similar  from  both  the  Type/size  and  Tenure/size perspectives (Tables 3 and 6, respectively), predominantly occurring in the larger-sized dwelling units within the qualified owner-occupier and social rental sectors and also in non-qualified private lodgings.

Again, the potential shortfall in the owner-occupier sector is attributed to households in existing smaller-sized dwellings planning to move-up, and concealed and private rental households wishing to purchase property in the owner-occupier sector.

Table 6 Five-year requirement (supply-demand) by tenure and size of dwelling unit.

Qualified sector   Non-qualified sector

Registered

Owner  Social  Private  Private  Staff Tenure/Size  Lodging  Total occupier  rental  rental  lodging  service

• House

1 bed  195  470  420   5  435  (25)  1,505 2 bed  (380)  430  255   (435)  105  55  25 3 bed  (515)  25  250   (200)  (20)  65  (400) 4 bed  (685)  (35)  55   (70)  -  25  (710) 5+ bed  (55)  (10)  (65)   (45)  -  (55)  (240) Total  (1,440)  875  915   (750)  520  60  180

The shortfall in the non-qualified private lodging sector is due predominantly to existing' and wishing'  non-qualified  households  aiming  to  move  to  what  they  perceive  is  the  best accommodation  currently  available  to  them,  and  particularly  is  comprised  of  households  in registered lodging houses wanting to move into non-qualified private lodgings.

The large potential surplus in 1-bedroom social rental accommodation is driven by the estimate of supply in this category due to "Death & care" (Table 4). The figure shown should be considered as an upper bound, and can be investigated further as firm data from the Housing Department becomes available.

The identified requirement of some 250 sheltered accommodation units may potentially be met, with suitable modifications, by the possible surpluses in 1- and 2-bedroom units in the social rental sector.

Table 7 presents the breakdown of the shortfalls in the three tenure categories of the qualified sector in terms of houses and flats.

Table 7 Five-year requirement (supply-demand) by house and flat in the qualified sectors.

1 bed  70  125  420  50  260  160 2 bed  (100)  (280)  440  (10)  (60)  315 3 bed  (105)  (410)  25  (+)  (15)  265 4 bed  (+)  (680)  (10)  (25)  +  55 5+ bed  (5)  (50)  -  (10)  +  (65) Total  (145)  (1,295)  870  5  190  725

The potential shortfall is predominantly in the owner-occupier sector for 2- and 3-bedroom flats and larger-sized houses.

Households were asked when they planned to move. Results are presented in Table 8 for the immediate two-year period (2005-2006) and the subsequent three years (2007-2009).

Table 8 Housing requirement (supply-demand) by tenure and size of dwelling unit.

Now to two years

Qualified sector   Non-qualified sector

Registered

Owner  Social  Private  Private  Staff Tenure/Size  Lodging  Total occupier  rental  rental  lodging  service

• House

1 bed  (+)  180  340   5  485  (+)  1,005 2 bed  (385)  200  260   (+)  140  35  250 3 bed  (505)  (30)  205   (195)  (25)  50  (496) 4 bed  (490)  (15)  55   (60)  -  25  (490) 5+ bed  10  -  (25)   (10)  -  (25)  (50) Total  (1,370)  335  835   (265)  560  85  220

Three to five years

Registered

Owner  Social  Private  Private  Staff Tenure/Size  Lodging  Total occupier  rental  rental  lodging  service

• House

1 bed  195  290  80   (+)  (50)  (20)  495 2 bed  +  230  (5)   (435)  (35)  20  (225) 3 bed  (10)  50  45   (10)  5  15  100 4 bed  (190)  (15)  (5)   (10)  -  -  (220) 5+ bed  (70)  (10)  (40)   (35)  -  (35)  (190) Total  (70)  540  80   (485)  (80)  (25)  375

More than 80% of the total potential shortfall in owner-occupier properties is expressed on the time-scale of 0-2 years, and as such is likely to represent robust data reflecting the firmly-held current aspirations, expectations and needs of households.

II.a  Effect of households gaining residential qualifications

In the above analysis it was assumed that residentially non-qualified households remained in the non-qualified sector (in tenure categories to the right of the hatched line in Tables 4 to 8) even if such households qualify within the five-year period 2005-2009. The effect of the movement of such households into the qualified sector over this period is now examined.

Continuation of the current 15-year rule

Under  the  existing  qualifying  period  of  15  years  continuous  residence,  a  maximum  of 1,015 non-residentially qualified households will become eligible to enter the qualified housing sectors between 2005 and 2009[7].

Data from the Housing Department over the past four years indicate that approximately two-thirds of the potential maximum gaining eligibility actually take up consents to enter the qualified sector. Of these, almost two-thirds enter the private (qualified) rental market, almost a third (30%) purchase owner-occupier property and the remainder (less than 2%) go to social rental accommodation.

The effect of these newly qualified households leaving the non-qualified sector and purchasing in the qualified sector is shown in Table 9. It is estimated that some 675 newly qualified households will enter the qualified sector over the five-year period: 440 into private rental accommodation, 225 as owner-occupiers and the remainder into the social rental sector.

The  numbers  presented  in  Table  9  are  maxima,  since  a  proportion  of  households  potentially qualifying may leave Jersey before accumulating the necessary residency period. The numbers can be superimposed directly onto those of Table 6

Table 9 Additional shortfalls (qualified sector) and surpluses (non-qualfied) sector due to

households gaining residential qualifications between 2005-2009 under

the current 15-year qualifying period.

Qualified sector   Non-qualified sector

Registered

Owner  Social  Private  Private  Staff Tenure/Size  Lodging

occupier  rental  rental  lodging  service

• House

1 bed  (70)  (5)  (290)   115  205  15 2 bed  (70)  (5)  (150)   120  15  15 3 bed  (65)  -  -   90  -  40 4 bed  (20)  -  -   20  -  20 5+ bed  -  -  -   20  -  - Total  (225)  (10)  (440)   365  220  90

The additional demand generated for social rental and private rental accommodation can be met by the potential surpluses in these tenure categories shown earlier (Table 6). The same may be said for 1-bedroom owner-occupier properties, but for larger bedroom owner-occupier properties additional demand occurs.

Reducing the qualification period by 1 year per annum

The effect on prospective housing requirements of a gradual reduction in the qualifying period by 1 year every year for the next five years (i.e. reducing to 10 years by 2009) is presented in Table 10.

Table 10 Additional shortfalls (qualified sector) and surpluses (non-qualified sector) due to:

households gaining residential qualifications between 2005-2009 under

reducing the qualifying period from 15 to 10 years by 2009.

Qualified sector   Non-qualified sector

Registered

Owner  Social  Private  Private  Staff Tenure/Size  Lodging

occupier  rental  rental  lodging  service

• House

1 bed  (165)  (15)  (750)   295  525  40

2 bed  (195)  (15)  (370)   305  40  40

3 bed  (160)   230   -  100

4 bed  (55)   50   -  50

5+ bed   50  -  -

Total  (575)  (30)  (1,120)   935  560  230

Under this scenario of a steadily reducing residency period, a potential total of 2,585 households

could become qualified. It is estimated that around 1,725 of these will enter the qualified sector: 1,120 into private rental accommodation, 575 as owner-occupiers and the remainder (a few 10's) into the social rental sector. It should again be re-iterated that these estimated numbers are maxima, since a proportion of households potentially qualifying may leave Jersey before accumulating the necessary residency period.

Additional 1-bedroom owner-occupier and social rental demand can still be met by the anticipated surpluses, but for all other categories either the practical surplus is now more than exhausted (private rental) or additional demand revealed (owner-occupier).

II.b  Effect of Net Migration

Tables 11a-d present the additional shortfalls  and surpluses in the qualified  and non-qualified sectors for four migration scenarios:

• net inward migration of +50 and + 100 households per year;
• net outward migration of -50 and -100 households per year.

Net inward migration

Table 11a Net inward migration of +100 households entering per year: 2005-2009.

1 bed  (5)  (5)  (20)   (40)  (120)  (35)  (220) 2 bed  (5)  (5)  (30)   (40)  (20)  -  (95) 3 bed  (10)  (10)  (45)   (5)  (5)  (15)  (85) 4 bed  (30)  -  (20)   (5)  -  -  (55) 5+ bed  (10)  -  (10)   (5)  -  (15)  (40) Total  (60)  (15)  (115)   (100)  (150)  (65)  (500)

The figures presented can be superimposed directly onto those of Table 6, which was derived using the assumption of zero net migration (as observed, on average, over the preceding four-year period 2000-2003)[8].  The  effect  of  inward  migration  of  100  households  per  annum  is  an  additional 45 households over five years entering the areas of the potential shortfalls already identified in 2-, 3- and 4-bedroom owner-occupier accommodation.

Table 11b Net inward migration of +50 households entering per year: 2005-2009.

1 bed  (+)  (5)  (10)   (20)  (60)  (20)  (110) 2 bed  (+)  (+)  (15)   (20)  (10)  -  (50) 3 bed  (5)  (5)  (20)   (5)  (5)  (5)  (45) 4 bed  (15)  -  (10)   (5)  -  -  (30) 5+ bed  (5)  -  (5)   (5)  -  (5)  (20) Total  (30)  (10)  (60)   (50)  (75)  (35)  (250)

Net outward migration

Table 11c Net outward migration of -50 households leaving per year: 2005-2009.

1 bed  5  -  15   25  39  5  90 2 bed  20  15  15   15  +  -  65 3 bed  35  10  16   5  -  5  65 4 bed  15  -  5   5  -  -  25 5+ bed  5  -  -   -  -  -  5 Total  80  25  45   50  40  10  250

Table 11d Net outward migration of -100 households leaving per year: 2005-2009.

1 bed  10  -  25   55  75  15  180 2 bed  45  25  25   30  5  -  130 3 bed  70  20  30   10  -  5  135 4 bed  35  -  10   5  -  -  50 5+ bed  10  -  -   -  -  -  5 Total  160  45  95   100  80  20  500

Due to the different distributions by tenure of households entering and leaving the Island, net outward migration increases the potential supply of owner-occupier properties at a greater rate than the  additional  potential  shortfall  resulting  from  net  inward  migration  of  a  similar  magnitude (i.e. more owner-occupiers leave than enter the Island).

Affordability

Households expressing a desire to purchase owner-occupier property were asked to estimate the cost of the accommodation they would anticipate purchasing.

Table 12 Expressed affordability by type and size of dwelling unit: (nearest £5,000). Type/Size  Existing  Concealed  2004[9] JeInterseyr house price-quartile ranges Q4 200[10] of 4

Jersey average

Sheltered

1-bed  175  175 2-bed  250

Flat

1-bed  190  145  160  145 to 165 2-bed  220  185  235  185 to 295 3-bed  270  250

House

1-bed  250  150

2-bed  250  205  265  220 to 325

3-bed  335  265  345  280 to 375

4-bed  420  450  475  370 to 575

5-bed  540  

These data demonstrate that there is generally a good understanding of property prices in Jersey. For example, people in existing properties indicated prices that were on average within 10% of the mean selling price in 2004. Concealed households, constituting a potential cohort of first-time buyers looking to form new households, were generally very close to the lower end of the inter-quartile range,  indicating  an  understanding  that  they  would  be  looking  at  the  lower-cost  end  of  their preferred dwelling type.

Notes

The tenure categories specified in this report correspond to those of the 2001 Census, whereby the residential status of a household corresponds to that of the designated head of household. The (a-h), (j)  and  (k)  classifications  of  residential  qualification  are  as  defined  by  the  Housing  Law  and Regulations.

Residentially qualified tenure categories:

Owner-occupier:  includes purchase by share transfer or on a lease of more than 9 years;

principally (a-h), but also some (j) and (k) category

Social rental:   (a-h) tenant of the States, a Parish or a Housing Trust/Association; Private rental:  (a-h), (j) or (k) tenant or occupier of private accommodation

Non-residentially qualified tenures:

Private Lodging:  non-qualified lodger in a private dwelling

Registered Lodging House:

non-qualified lodger in a Registered Lodging House Staff/service:   non-qualified occupier of tied (i.e. staff) accommodation

Statistics Unit February 2005

ANNEX

Additional comments of respondents

The figures below summarise three sets of comments made by respondents. Figure 1 Reasons given for planning to move over the next five years.

100

84

75

50

25

11

3 2 0

To move to Get on the Downsize Other reasons more suitable property

accomodation ladder

The Other reasons' category includes: moving to sheltered/disabled accommodation, moving due to divorce and end of lease, etc.

Figure 2 Reasons given for wishing to, but not being able to move.

100

77

75

50

25 15

7

1

0 Unable to Unable to Not yet Other reasons

afford to buy afford to rent qualified

Comments  in  the  Other  reasons'  category  include:  unable  to  sell  present  accommodation; no suitable sheltered/disabled accommodation; and long-term illness.

Figure 3 General comments on the housing situation in Jersey.

100

75

58

50

25 15 14

9

3 0

Housing is Inadequate Island is too Unhappy about the Disillusioned with expensive Housing/Standard developed need or time to Island

of living obtain housing

qualifications

All comments have been grossed-up to Census 2001 totals by area, dwelling type and tenure.