2008 Population update

Jersey's Resident Population 2008

Statistics Unit: www.gov.je/statistics

Headlines

• The resident population of Jersey at the end of 2008 is estimated as 91,800.
• During 2008 the resident population of Jersey increased by about 900.
• Net inward migration accounted for approximately three-quarters of this increase; natural growth, the excess of births over deaths, accounted for the remainder.

Resident population estimate

The Jersey Census provides a measure of the Island's total resident population; the most recent Census, conducted in March 2001, recorded 87,186 residents.

To produce an updated estimate of the resident population it is only the change since the last census which needs to be measured; this change is calculated from data on births and deaths and from annual census-level information on education, health and employment (see Notes). Numbers presented in Table 1 refer to the end of each year and are shown to the nearest 100 to reflect the level of uncertainty.

Table 1: Estimates of Jersey's resident population: 2000- 2008.

(p) provisional; (r) revised.

Changes in Jersey's resident population are due to two main processes:

• Natural growth (the excess of births over deaths);
• Net migration (which may be inward or outward in a given year).

The  increase of  900 in  the  resident  population  for  2008 is the  result  of  both natural growth and net migration into the Island during that year.

Natural growth

Births  and  deaths  in  Jersey  are  recorded  by  the  Superintendent  Registrar. Following 2007, which saw the highest number of births recorded in Jersey for almost a decade and the lowest number of deaths for more than 50 years, the numbers of births and deaths in 2008 returned to a similar level to the average (mean) of the preceding five-year period (2003-7).

Figure 1 - Births and Deaths in Jersey : 1990 - 2008

1,500 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 0

Natural growth is defined as the excess of live births over deaths and has averaged about  240 in  Jersey  since  1990;  however,  as  Figure  1 indicates,  there  can  be considerable year-to-year variations. The natural growth in 2008 (of 230) was similar to the long-term mean and that of the preceding five-year period.

The crude birth rate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR) are defined, respectively, as the number of live births and the number of deaths per 1,000 residents per annum.

Table 2: Crude birth rate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR) for Jersey.

1991 12.6 10.5

1996 13.0 9.9

2000 11.2 9.0

2001 11.1 9.0

2002 10.6 9.6

2003 11.5 8.7

2004 11.1 8.5

2005 11.0 8.5

2006 10.6 8.5

2007 11.3 7.8

2008 10.6 8.1 Figures for CBR and CDR are per 1,000 residents per annum.

Both the CBR and the CDR can be subject to volatility in any given year (Table 2). Nevertheless, the CBR for Jersey in 2008 was below the mean of the preceding five-year period (11.1), whilst the CDR was also below the mean of the same period (8.4) and continued the downward trend apparent since the 1990's.

Net Migration

Net migration into or out of the Island is the result of the "ebb and flow" of people in both  directions.  The  2001  Census  indicated  that  this  movement was  around 2,500 persons  per  year  in  each direction (excluding the  annual  movement  of short-term  seasonal  workers present in the  Island  for less  than  one  year).  The net migration in a given calendar year is thus the difference between two much greater numbers, those people arriving less those leaving.

As Figure 2 shows, 2001 and 2002 were characterised by small net inward migration of around 100 people per year, reflecting the general stability of the labour market during this period, whilst 2003 and 2004 saw net outward migration, reflecting the falls in private sector employment in those years.

Figure 2 - Net migration 2001 - 2008

(net inward migration is above the axis, net outward migration below)

1,500 1,000 500 0 -500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

The  period  from  2005  to  2007 saw  increasingly  greater  levels of  net inward migration,  reflecting  the  improvement  in  the  Island's  economy1 and  increased

employment in the private sector. In 2008, the level of net inward migration was below that of the preceding two years but was greater than the mean net inward migration (of almost 400 people per year) seen during the preceding five-year period.

The net inward migration in 2008 is estimated to be comprised of approximately two-thirds adults  and  one-third  children.  J-category  households  (employees  and dependents) are estimated to account for about 60% of the net migration in 2008.

1 Jersey Gross Value Added (GVA) and Gross National Income (GNI) 2007: Statistics Unit, October 2008.

Residential qualification status

At  the time  of  the  2001  Jersey  Census,  the  number  of  adults  who  were not residentially  qualified (in  their  own  right) under  the  Housing  regulations  was 15,300, representing 21% of the total resident adult population. At the end of 2008, it is  estimated  that  the  number  of  such  non-qualified  adults  was  about  8,500, representing around one in nine of the resident adult population.

The  main cause  of  the  decrease in  the  number,  and  hence  proportion, of non-residentially qualified people since 2001 has been the series of reductions in the period of residency required to attain qualified status, as stipulated by the Housing regulations. At the time of the 2001 Census the residency period was 19 years; by April 2007 this had been reduced to 12 years2.

Resident households

A total of 35,552 private households3 were recorded by the 2001 Jersey Census and the average household size was 2.38. The 2007 Housing Needs Survey4 enabled

estimation of an updated figure for average household size of 2.33. If it is assumed that  the  proportion  of  individuals  living  in  communal  establishments  has  been approximately constant  between 2001  and  2008,  then  the  number  of  private households resident in Jersey at the end of 2008 is estimated as 38,300.

Population Density

The population density of Jersey is approximately double that of England and almost a quarter less than Guernsey (see Table 3).

Table 3: Population density of Jersey and other jurisdictions.

* Population figures for other jurisdictions are from: Guernsey Social Security Department, 2007; Isle of Man Census, April 2006; UK Office for National Statistics, mid-year estimates for 2007.

If the 2 km2 of the St Helier reclamation site are included in the total area of Jersey, the population density is 780 per km2.

The population density of the Channel Islands lies between the level of Mauritius and Barbados (around 600 per km2) and that of the Maldives (1,000 per km2), Bermuda

(1,200 per km2) and Malta (1,300 per km2). The population densities of Hong Kong and Singapore (about 6,400 per km2) are around eight times that of Jersey5.

2 On 13 May 2009 the States of Jersey reduced the residency period to 11 years.

3 Private households do not include individuals who are living in communal establishments such as old people's and nursing homes.

4 Jersey's Housing Assessment: report on the 2007 Housing Needs Survey: Statistics Unit, April 2008.

5 Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: The 2008 Revision Population Database.

Notes:

1. The net change (represented by the symbol in the resident population between any two points in time is defined as:

population = Natural growth (live births – deaths) + Net migration where Net migration is estimated as: Net migration  =

(Non-locally qualified and j-category) Labour Force

+ school-age children (and associated non-economically active parents)

+ pre-school children (and associated non-economically active parents)

+ no-neconomically active adults not associated with children.

In  the  above  equation  the change  in  the  non-locally  qualified  workforce includes: the net migration of short-term workers (having less than 5 years residency, as defined under the Regulation of Undertakings and Development Law, RUDL), the reclassification as "locally qualified" (under RUDL) of workers attaining  6-years  of  residency  (though  remaining  non-qualified  under  the Housing Law) and the outward migration of "locally qualified" workers who had not yet attained residentially qualified status under the Housing Law.

For  a  detailed  description  of  the  methodology  see  the  publication: "Methodology  to  produce  an  annual  estimate  of  Jersey's  resident population": States of Jersey Statistics Unit, June 2005.

2. The  principal  sources  of  data  for  estimating  changes in  Jersey's  resident population are:

• Births, Marriages and Deaths in 2008: provisional information provided by the Office of the Superintendent Registrar;
• Labour Force: Jersey Labour Market at December 2008, States of Jersey Statistics Unit;
• Data from the Education, Sport and Culture Department and the Department of Health and Social Services for the net migration of school-age and pre- school children, respectively;
• Census 2001 data for the household composition and economic activity rates of inward migrant households into the Island.

As  a  consequence  of  the  manner  in  which  the  above  data  are compiled, population estimates in Table 1 refer to the end of each calendar year rather than mid-March, which has been traditionally used for the Jersey Census.

Statistics Unit 29th May 2009