4insight Government Plan Focus Groups Results Presentation - 15 October 2019

Corporate Services Scrutiny Panel Government Plan 20-23 Focus Groups Results Presentation

Prepared for Simon Spottiswoode and Scrutiny Panel

Prepared by Sandra Santos, Beatrice Speck & Dorothy Parker 15.10.19

Presentation Outline

Research Aim and Objectives Project Scope and Sample Methodology

Demographics Detailed Results Conclusions

Appendix

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Research Aim and Objectives

The research project aim was to explore views on Jersey's new proposed Government Plan 20-23.

Specific objectives included exploring:

• awareness and knowledge of the new Government Plan, plus how aware, e.g. Government communications and/or social or traditional media coverage etc

• public opinions on the overall direction of the Government Plan and the over-arching economics e.g. £824m in 2020 versus budget of £735m for 2019, especially in light of expected income and the other headline figures

• views on Government plans to introduce £40m in efficiencies in 2020 and how approached

• gaining an understanding of public opinions on the specific potential headline tax raising measures in the Government Plan e.g. duty rises, increase tax exemption thresholds, Long Term Care charge increase etc

• opinions on the amount of money going into new projects in 2020 and the relative amounts/priorities e.g. putting children first £20.7m, modernising Government £25.4m etc

• views on level of transparency with regard to the Government plan

Outcome: Provide public views and perceptions to inform the Corporate Services Scrutiny Panel about the new Government Plan built upon evidence based research

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Project Scope and Sample

Scope:

Jersey islanders  

Sample:

The target sample was General islanders.

All respondents were recruited and screened to a screener questionnaire, this aimed to primarily include a mix of social demographics for the general public, such as age, income level, employment status, Parish, gender, ethnicity etc.

The screening criteria were discussed at the kick off briefing meeting, along with the actual target structure for each group. The screener questionnaire was designed by 4insight as well as reviewed and agreed with yourselves, prior to use. The screening excluded those in the media and those actively involved in politics.

The recruitment strategy including social media activity was discussed and agreed with yourselves at the kick off meeting.

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Qualitative Methodology

Conducting focus groups for the objectives of this research ensured that we truly explored the level of depth & understanding needed from BOTH the rational and emotional perspective.

4 focus groups were conducted, each with a mix of the various socio-demographics.

Each group targeted 8 respondents and lasted about 90 – 110 minutes. All groups were conducted to a topic guide prepared by 4insight which was agreed prior to use by the panel. Various headline figures from the proposed Government Plan 20-23 were presented as stimulus within the groups, (6 slides in total). Projective and enabling techniques were utilised to explore respondents perceptions at an individual and emotional level. The qualitative focus groups were professionally facilitated / moderated by a Director of 4insight with initial scene setting regarding how a mix of views is acceptable, and the moderator utilised Neuro Linguistic Programming (NLP). With these 2 approaches together we were able to eliminate any potential group think'.

All groups were held at 4insight's professional observation facilities which allowed key team members to view live, whilst not biasing responses by being present in the sessions. Any extra questions from those viewing were able to be added just before the close of each group. All groups were digitally recorded and professionally analysed.

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Demographics: Age, Parish and Gender

Gender Age 9

8 7

15

16 4

2 1

Male Female

16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Which Parish do you live in?

11

7

4

2 2

1 1 1 1 1

0 0

n:31 6

Demographics: Born in Jersey, Employment Status and Income

Employment

20 Which of the following best describes your total annual

household income?

5 4 11

1 1

8 7

4

1

19

12

Yes No

n:31 Were you born in Jersey?

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Demographics: Registered Voter, Voting in Jersey Before, Voting in the 2018 Election

Are you a registered voter?

10%

90% Yes No

Have you voted in Jersey before?

13%

87%

Yes No

Did you vote in the 2018 election?

23%

77%

Yes No

n=31 note: sample more politically engaged

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Detailed Results

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First word associations, "New Government Plan", little consensus

2X "Brexit"

Excl: "Waiting on Brexit", "Impact of Brexit", "Brexit mess"

3X "What is it?" 2X "Hospital" 2X "Population"

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Awareness and Knowledge

On average 6 people in each focus group said they were aware of the Government Plan, although it then emerged that some were confused with the Island Plan

The majority of respondents had not fully read the whole Government Plan with most skim reading it online

Those who were aware of the Government Plan it was through:

Traditional Media  Online

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Views on Headline Figures

Majority thought the budget for spending was too high and were concerned  with the spending increases from 2019 to 2020  

Majority found the figures difficult to understand

Most respondents were confused as to what £40 million "efficiencies" mean/include and where it is coming from

Within all groups at least one person thought that efficiencies may mean tax increases and job loses

A wide proportion of respondents felt that the way spending is calculated in the government would "not be sustainable in an organisation"

"Additional spending " was questioned within 2 groups

Some were unsure what "capital projects" may be, and questioned the increase

Some participants thought that "inflation" was often used to justify higher spending

A number of respondents questioned "where the 4% income increase will come from?"

"it seems like the wrong time to shake things up"

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Views on Income Figures

Most thought that there are going to be taxes increases to cover income forecast

Majority were concerned on whether it is achievable

Most thought that Brexit will have a negative impact on these targets

Many were sceptical of the trend line and questioned how accurate income predictions for previous years had been

"It seems like an uniform growth, doesn't seem to be the right approach considering the way Brexit is turning out, the way that prices are going up. It doesn't seem right that income just carries on"

"I'm not sure whether it's achievable  because of Brexit... If you're basing it on  those living in those times anymore "

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"What does modernising government  

actually impact people on the day to day,  "Modernising government it's easy to  improving wellbeing will help people,  dismiss because you don't see a person  

modernising government will not help the  like putting children first or wellbeing  general people" but it's still important"

Within all groups some questioned why "Modernising Government"  has such a large budget, while others thought that this may improve  

efficiency within the government e.g. IT systems, tax Some thought that "Put Children First" is important but also with  concerns on the budget and how it's going to be applied   The budget for Put Children First was also challenged within 2 groups  with thoughts that other priorities such as Wellbeing need to be  

implemented before putting children first  

"Children I would expect that to be  

a priority, they are the future, for  "I did take an issue with the thing of putting  me they are the ones that should  children first... there are lot of issues around the always take priority" children's sector that first need to be resolved

before anything else can be done, the children services need to be reformed quite a lot"

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A few questioned what "Other Government Services" mean

Some questioned why "Protect our Environment" has the least spending budget

Majority thought that "Improve Wellbeing" was a positive, although some questioned whether cuts (that have recently been announced) in the health sector will impact this priority

"Haven't they just announced today that

they are going to take a big hit? That the

Health department are going to have to  

reduce £8 million? So it's a bit confusing  

about what is in here and what I have  

heard on the radio this morning"  "There is a lot of repetition, they say we want to do this but don't say how

they plan to achieve it"

"I would question why protecting the environment has so little funding compared to everything else?

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Most had issues with how "Reduce Inequality" will be carried out and measured

Some thought that some priorities could be linked e.g. "Wellbeing" and "Put Children First" or "Environment" and "Wellbeing"

Some where unaware of what "Vibrant Economy" may include, within all groups there were questions of what this priority means, how it's going to be applied and it's amount of spending

Some were concerned on the budget and how it's being disbursed and implemented between different priorities

"Without a vibrant economy the  

rest will probably not happen"  "The priorities seem right but not the  

sort of budget"

"If you have more bills and less  "Can you measure inequality,  money to spend how are you going  before you reduce it? How do you  

to create a vibrant economy?" measure it?"

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Most not familiar with the latest government structure

Thoughts that "Customer and Local Services" should have a higher budget

Most thought that spending on "Chief Operating Office" and "Office of the Chief Executive" are large spends and very large increases over 2019

Some thought that the budget should be further broken down by departments

Perceived lack of explanation to what the expenditures' mean

"If every department is increasing expenditure, how are they getting efficiencies with £33 million?"

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Some thought that there was a big difference in the percentage increase in "Chief Operating Office" and "Office of the Chief Executive" in comparison to "Health"

A few were concerned whether this is the right time to increase overseas aid

Most thought that percentage increases from 2019 to 2020 too high

"The Government departments table on the right doesn't necessarily fit into an amount and it's not easily linked to the priorities"

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Key Take Away: Tax Proposals

Most would like more explanation on the reasons behind the tax increases

Some recognised that tax increases on alcohol and tobacco may have health benefits

Most thought that tax increases such as the petrol duty will mainly affect the middle class/people with lower

income and make the island more expensive Most thought that GST increase on online shopping would not generate much revenue as there are costs Majority were concerned that when taxes go up everything else goes up causing a wider effect and

increasing cost of living, again squeezing the middle class Mixed reactions to no changes to stamp duty – some pleased and others think of it as an opportunity for extra

revenue from expensive properties, e.g. over £2m

"The government doesn't want us to stop smoking

and drinking, they want us to pay more while we

23 are doing it"  

Most responses negative to tax proposals

Tax Increases

Positives Negatives

"At the moment a pack of cigarettes is around £9.80 and I think taking the price of the £10 mark will be a psychological limit to a lot of people smoking. Maybe at that point you may see a health benefit"

"I think they may be doing that for the social aspect of Jersey, reducing anti-social behaviour, reducing alcohol and tobacco for the health, to be on a track to having less people drinking"

"I hope that that reduces the number of cars on the road"

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"I don't know how much this is an incentive to stop drinking, if there are people who drink and smoke too much they are going to continue to do that"

"Petrol will be above inflation and will kill tourism, there are people that enjoy a drink and are not alcoholics and they are punishing them"

"When you try to order things to Jersey companies don't deliver because they can't handle GST"

"I work at a pub, you get less customers, you have to pay more taxes and then have to let staff go and then I'll go to Social Security and claim income support which is going to cost them more!"

"Tax going up has a massive impact like buses go up, everything goes up, it's not just petrol it actually has a much wider effect"

Lots of challenge on Efficiencies figures

The £20.3 million "yet to be identified" was strongly questioned within all focus groups. Affects credibility

Concerns on how the figures for efficiencies are being calculated

Tax efficiency being questioned due to recent delays in tax collection

Opinions that these are not SMART priorities

Questioned "Reviewing supplier contracts" £3 million

Most expected to have more detail on the efficiency figures and what they are being used for

"How have they come up with a "It seems to be, take a number  figure for yet to be identified'?"

and work towards it"

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How well the plan is addressing the Strategic Priorities

Questions to whether the plan will be reviewed

Questions on what the plan is based on

Concerns on how some priorities are going to measured, as some overlap within departments

Recognition that "Put Children First" and "Modernising Government" are important priorities – with challenges

Feelings that "Protect Our Environment" should have more focus

"Modernising government is easy to  

dismiss because you don't see a person  "Would not vote for this plan without being like putting children first or wellbeing but  measured properly and within different

it's still important" variables, it's going to impact a lot of people, people are just going to be depressed because

they can't drink, smoke or go in their car"

"You'd never get this through at any of the organisations that I worked for, how many checks and in how many quarters do they do?"

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Transparency

Concerns on how the plan was designed, and whether it was targeted towards the general public

Thoughts that the plan is not being clear and inclusive

Concerns of how accessible the plan is

Thoughts that budget figures are unclear and concerns as to where money is coming from

Majority believe that the plan is NOT transparent

"They are trying to create this picture to make it sound like everything is great

"They use "fluffy" wordings to make you  but actually in house it's not"

think its a good plan"

"They are obviously doing it in some data that we don't know, they've got the background"

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Key Take Away Messages from Lift Ride' exercise

Perception that it's the everyday person' that is getting taxed the most

A need for; transparency, accountability, measurability, evidenced, SMART objectives/KPIs

Efficiencies should have been identified by now and included

It raises questions and challenges credibility

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Conclusions

Most were aware of the new proposed Government Plan, however in discussion it became apparent that some had confused it with the Island Plan

A few had read it in detail, however most had skim read it online after been made aware by traditional media (JEP, Radio, TV) or online via social media (inc gov.je and Chamber news)

Initial perceptions were that it was not easy to read, not a lot of detail and lots of blue sky thinking'

Most were concerned about the headline figures and thought that the spending increases were too high

Spontaneously at this early stage the £40m efficiencies were challenged as to where from and why not qualified yet

Majority concerned on whether it's achievable and doubted the forward income trend, especially in the light of Brexit implications

Strategic Priority expenditure figures raised many questions; What is Vibrant Economy? Why is Modernising Government so high? What is Other Government Services and why so high? How Reduce Inequality and how measure it?

Most not familiar with the latest Government structure and thus raised many questions

Challenges on spend by department figures 2020 vs. 2019, especially Chief Operating Office and Office of the Chief Executive plus versus low Health spend increase

Investment figures again raised challenges on the large proportion 31% Modernising Government vs. 4% Environment and what is included in Vibrant Economy

Tax proposals felt to squeeze middle income the most, not the rich or poor

Comments on lack of SMART objectives and KPIs

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QUESTIONS

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Appendix

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32

"If there was more transparency and

practicality. Lots of lovely ideas but all

interlinked and the plan does not show it.

People need better housing and

education, including childcare and cost of

living being affordable without going off

island. Justice needs more governing

bodies to enforce wellbeing and  "Savings that would inequality" be achieved across

all States departments"

33

"Detailed breakdown of what strategy/spending relates to,

impact on the public as a whole. Avoid vague explanation, how previous plans have been incorporated"

"Finance for the non- finance person some more consistency on the how's to enhance the we will "

34

"Provide a summary of key parts with supportive and measurable information and targets"

"Everything was measurable, takes

into account the middle/low

earners. Follow regulation for  "We had a budget that accounting purposes and figures.  truly reflected our realistic

Measurable and fully documented  income levels over next 3/ rather than projected streams'" 4 years. Can't be trusted"

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JE2 3QA

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