The official version of this document can be found via the PDF button.
The below content has been automatically generated from the original PDF and some formatting may have been lost, therefore it should not be relied upon to extract citations or propose amendments.
This email has been generated from the feedback form on the Scrutiny website. The Strategic Plan Appendix 2 Population Policy states: 2. A changing picture
Although based largely on Jersey-specific information, the Jersey population model is subject to a range of assumptions, for example birth and death rates, some of which are derived from the UK Government Actuary s Department (GAD).
The GAD official website states:
GAD was responsible for the production of the official national population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries from 1954 until 2006. Responsibility for the production of the official national population projections, and associated demographic data, transferred to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in 2006.
Professor David Coleman (2007) Memorandum to the House of Commons Treasury Committee December 2007 states:
Note on the value of published information on population trends including migration.
All aspects of population statistics in the United Kingdom are in an unsatisfactory state. Even the base population remains uncertain. Despite every effort, the last two censuses have turned out to be unsatisfactory. Even the 2001 census, designed to be infallible, has had to be revised twice and its incompatibilities with other sources patched up with statistical Polyfilla. With present systems the degree of error is unknowable but possibly large. Inappropriate questions are asked, and necessary ones ignored. Immigration flow statistics are estimated on small voluntary samples of intended immigration and emigration, of incomplete coverage and high sampling error. Immigrants' destinations around the country are based initially on their stated intentions on arrival, naturally subject to revision. With these systems we cannot know who is in the country, legally or illegally, when they arrived, where they are or if and when they left. The number of illegal immigrants is anyon
e's guess although the government has given an estimate of about half a million. Internal migration and local population estimates are based on obsolete and often wrong census counts, sample surveys inadequate for local authority use and indirect and partial estimates from changes in doctors' registrations. Current huge migration flows quickly render estimates out of date .
My comment:
The Population Policy for Jersey is based in part on unreliable information. PS if anyone is interested here is part of Professor Coleman s CV:
David Coleman has been the Professor of Demography at Oxford University since 2002 and was the Reader in Demography between 1996-2002, and Lecturer in Demography since 1980. Between 1985 and 1987 he worked for the British government, as the Special Adviser to the Home Secretary, and then to the Ministers of Housing and of the Environment. Research interests include the comparative demographic trends in the industrial world; the future of fertility, the demographic consequences of migration and the demography of ethnic minorities. International collaborative work continues on these topics at the Vienna Institute of Demography. He has worked as a consultant for the Home Office, for the United Nations and for private business. He has published over 100 papers and eight books including The State of Population Theory: Forward from Malthus (ed.with R.S. Schofield, 1986), The British Population: patterns, trends and processes (with J. Salt, 1992. Oxford University Press); Internatio nal Migration: Regional Responses and Processes (ed. with M. Macura 1994); Europe's Population in the 1990s (ed. 1996, Oxford University Press), Ethnicity in the 1991 Census. Volume 1: Demographic characteristics of ethnic minority populations, edited (with J. Salt), London, HMSO and Immigration to Denmark: national and international perspectives (with E. Wadensjo, 1999, Aarhus University Press). He was the joint editor of the European Journal of Population (Paris) from 1992 to 2000 and in 1997 and in 2001 was elected to the Council of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population. He is a Fellow of St. John 's College and a lecturer at St. Catherine's College. He gives lectures and tutorials in demography to students in Human Sciences, PPE and other degrees and was Chairman of the Human Sciences Institute from 2005-2008.