Carbon Neutral Strategy 2019 [P.127/2019 (re-issue)]

STATES OF JERSEY

r

CARBON NEUTRAL STRATEGY 2019

Lodged au Greffe on 31st December 2019 by the Minister for the Environment

STATES GREFFE

2019  P.127 (re-issue)

PROPOSITION

THE STATES are asked to decide whether they are of opinion

to receive the Carbon Neutral Strategy 2019 as set out in the Appendix to the Report and –

1. to adopt the defining principles for the Carbon Neutral Strategy, as set out in section 3 of the Appendix to the Report;
2. to agree to the establishment of a citizens' assembly as defined by the mandate  for  a  carbon  neutral  citizens'  assembly,  as  set  out  in Appendix 3 to the Appendix to the Report; and
3. to request the Minister for the Environment to lodge by the end of 2020 a proposition containing a longterm climate action plan for debate by the States Assembly.

MINISTER FOR THE ENVIRONMENT

Note:  The full carbon neutral strategy which outlines the principles and

mandate for the citizens' assembly is published as an Appendix.

Page - 2

REPORT

Background

P.27/2019 required a carbon neutral strategy to be lodged by the end of 2019. The strategy  has  been  developed  and  commitments  are  made  to  further  work  that  is necessary to fully achieve the objectives set in the strategy.

The carbon neutral strategy is based on principles that have been discussed and agreed by Ministers since the declaration of the climate change emergency in May 2019.

The strategy has the following 3 parts.

Part A – Context for the carbon neutral strategy

• Section 2 sets out the strategic context for the carbon neutral strategy. It signposts to current scientific evidence and summarises Jersey's existing international obligations and energy policy;

• Section 3 sets out the defining principles that the Council of Ministers believe should shape our carbon neutral journey.

Part B – Planning and developing a long-term climate action plan

• Section 4 sets out –

• the  proposal  for  a  people-powered  approach  to  deliberating  and recommending a climate emergency action plan, including advising on what Jersey's carbon neutral ambition should be;
• the policy objectives and rationale behind this approach; the process to be followed; and
• the roles and responsibilities of different groups, including a mandate for Jersey's first citizens' assembly.

• Section 5 presents a high-level review of policies to drive radical reductions in Jersey's emissions by 2030 and summarises key considerations related to offsetting residual emissions. As comparison, and to inform the public debate, the quantified elements of this review are also presented for 2040

and 2050 deadlines. Part C – Delivering together in 2020  

• Recognising the urgent nature of the climate emergency, Section 6 sets out an initial delivery plan of foundation policies that will be implemented in 2020, alongside the development of the long-term climate action plan.

• Section 7 sets out –

• how delivery will be governed, and the need to review existing Energy Partnership that was established by Pathway 2050;
• key financial considerations;
• an initial investment plan for the Climate Emergency Fund; and
• the basis of a future performance and review framework to track and assess progress.

• Section 8 concludes the strategy and sets out key next steps.

Page - 3

P.127/2019 (re-issue)

Financial and manpower implications

Development of the Carbon Neutral Strategy has drawn on existing policy resources and additional in-year funding of £212,500. Further development of the work identified in the strategy will draw on existing policy resources and additional funding from Climate Emergency Fund as approved in 2019 in the Government Plan.

 _____________________________________________________________________ Re-issue Note

This Projet is re-issued in order to correct typographical errors in the Appendix to the Report.

Page - 4

APPENDIX

CLIMATE  EMERGENCY

Carbon Neutral Strategy

Contents

Minister's Foreword 4 1.  Introduction 6

1. Taking the time to think about the future  6
2. Declaring a climate emergency 8
3. Route map for the carbon neutral journey  11

A  Establishing a carbon neutral strategy 13

2  Context for the carbon neutral strategy 14

1. Global scientific context  14
2. Policy Context  19 3  Our defining principles  28

1. Principle 1 We will adopt a strategic focus on all emissions 29
2. Principle 2 We will work within a definition of  

carbon neutrality  29

3. Principle 3 We will require high standards in the use of  carbon offsetting  29
4. Principle 4 We will make sure that everyone can play

their part  29

B  Planning and developing a long-term climate  30

action plan

1. A people-powered approach 31
2. What are the elements of the people-powered approach? 33
3. Why we need to start with people-power  34
4. What are the benefits of a people-powered approach?  36
5. Timeline for the people-powered process  38 5  How might we make progress towards carbon neutrality? 41

1. Establishing a baseline for carbon neutrality 42
2. Developing long-term policy options  45
3. Policy approaches in other jurisdictions  46
4. Policy scenarios related to transport  50

5.4.1  Summary of quantitative assessment for the road

transport sector  51

Carbon Neutral Strategy

5. Policy scenarios related to heating  56
   1. Summary of quantitative assessment for the heating sector 57
6. Carbon off-setting 66
7. On-island sequestration 68
8. Policy conclusions and considerations 69

C  Delivering together in 2020 71

6.  Delivering in 2020  72

1. Tackling the climate emergency in 2020  73
2. Reducing carbon emissions from Government activity 75
3. Reducing our wider carbon footprint 77

1. Our individual actions 79
2. Our global economic reach 80
3. Our imports and exports 81 7  Governance and other considerations 83

1. Governance of the strategy  83
2. Financing the strategy  84
3. Understanding the long-term requirements of our  86 energy market

8  Conclusions and next steps 87 Appendices 89

Appendix 1  Principles to inform the carbon neutral strategy

Appendix 2  Roles and responsibilities in the   90

people- powered approach

Appendix 3  Mandate for a carbon neutral citizens assembly  91 Appendix 4  Strong start: delivery plan 2020  93 95

Carbon Neutral Strategy  / Minister's foreword 5

Minister s foreword

Like many people of my post-war generation, in the early 1970s I first became aware of enlightened scientists concern over the impact of human activity on our planet.

In the decades that followed, the environment was seen as

the province of concerned, far-out groups and ignored by mainstream politicians who focused on the big political issues: taxes, the economy and public services.

In my short time in politics, I realised that the environment would only receive political attention when it became a priority of the public. The last decade has brought home the environmental realities storm events, extreme weather, changes in polar ice flows, species extinction and pollution being just a few.

Public attitudes have suddenly changed, particularly in response to the leadership shown by young people, a movement which I personally find inspiring. Our planet is their future our children, grandchildren and future generations.

In response to community concerns voiced by a backbench States Member, the States Assembly voted in May this year to declare a climate emergency, and asked for a plan to aim to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030.

It s hard to put an effective plan together in such a short timescale, but I m very confident that we ve set a route map for the long-term, not just the next few years.

I believe Jersey can and should become the first carbon neutral jurisdiction in the British Isles.

The Government and the States Assembly will take the tough decisions to change laws, taxes and regulations and to build new sustainable infrastructure.

But this will not be enough unless each of us faces up to the impact that being carbon neutral will have on our daily lives.

This is why our strategy is to unleash the power of people across our Island and to make carbon neutrality the defining mission of our next decade. Together, we can show ourselves, our peers and future generations of Islanders, the great things we can achieve when we all work together.

Deputy John Young Minister for the Environment

December 2019

Introduction

1. Taking the time to think about the future

Jersey has a good record of tackling its carbon impact; on-Island emissions have fallen by

over a third since 1990. As a jurisdiction, we take our global responsibilities seriously and act in accordance with ratified international treaties on climate change.

Jersey has lower per capita carbon emissions than many jurisdictions of a similar size, and the lowest of all jurisdictions in the British Isles. Some people will feel this is enough, and that the existing policies set out in Pathway 2050[1] should be retained and delivered. Others, including our elected representatives in the States Assembly, leading businesses and many Islanders, believe we need to go further, act faster and continue to use our privileged position to demonstrate what a concerted effort to decarbonise our Island can look like.

Some will say it is not worth Jersey becoming carbon neutral when other countries have not committed to do the same. We reject that view. While we are global citizens, our strongest moral and legal responsibility is to the future generations of Islanders that will live in and look after Jersey; our children and our children s children. Our responsibilities are not lessened because others fail to act. It is our responsibility to improve Jersey's air quality, protect and enhance

its natural environment, create the infrastructure to lead healthier lives and replace polluting technologies for the longer-term. These local benefits of carbon neutrality are significant and (as shown in section five) outweigh the upfront costs of change.

There will be much discussion of the costs of becoming carbon neutral. These costs are significant, and will be shaped by the timing and level of our ambition. When we are counting these costs, we should acknowledge that the choice facing Jersey is not whether to become carbon neutral, but when. The UK has made a legal commitment to become carbon neutral by 2050, and our nearest neighbours in the EU are likely to agree the same[2]. Jersey will surely follow suite, willingly or under international obligation. The cost of our ambition is the cost difference between acting sooner and acting later; the cost of acting is a given.

If we act sooner we can secure the local benefits of carbon neutrality earlier, improving the quality of life for more children and families. Acting sooner, and in a bold and inclusive way, also presents the chance to differentiate Jersey on the global stage, and to use this reputational capital to support existing strategic priorities, such as protecting and developing our finance and digital sectors.

We are not alone in looking again at our long-term environmental plans. Driven by new findings in climate science[3], a global movement is underway to secure more ambitious action and to limit the worst impacts of the fossil fuel economies and societies that have developed in the last 200 years.

Many will feel the start has been too slow but, in 2019, we can at least see that the international race to carbon neutrality is underway.

This carbon neutral strategy presents Jersey with an opportunity to agree where it wants to stand in this race:

Will we act quickly in ways that  Will we maintain our strong but strengthen our communities,  steady progress, align plans with improve our health and wellbeing,  global norms and make a gradual, protect and enhance our natural  or  though not insignificant transition in and built environments, and  line with similar jurisdictions?

seek influence and early mover

advantages in the new global

economy?

These choices, and the pace of a transition to a low carbon future, have significant social and financial implications. That is why the central strategic choice laid out here is to pursue a wide- ranging programme of public deliberation and planning, including Jersey s first large-scale citizens assembly. We will come together as an Island to explore the options open to us, and the implications of our choices, before agreeing a final pathway and long-term climate action plan by the end of 2020.

This is a mature approach, aimed at creating the foundations for long-term social and economic change, and it will require us all to make time and space for the reasoned, long-term thinking that this issue requires.

Some of the world s best scientists are beginning to question the viability of many of our natural environments and the long-term future of the human race. This, if nothing else, should make us stop and think, should encourage us to make space in our daily lives to discuss with our friends, family and loved ones how we want to move forward as a community, and the choices and changes we are willing to make as a result.

This carbon neutral strategy makes that time and space available to us as an Island. How we choose to use it will be down to each and every one of us.

2. Route map for the carbon neutral journey

Navigating our path to carbon neutrality will not be easy. There are different routes that might be taken, over different time frames; different investments can be made and paid for in different ways. The impact of any programme of decarbonisation on other social, economic and environmental priorities will be significant and will vary in different communities and places, and over time.

This strategy acknowledges the complexity inherent in trying to decarbonise our society and economy. Instead of proposing a simple menu of policies, it presents the strategic groundwork necessary to undertake a thorough shared conversation about how best to proceed, together, over the long term.

This strategic framework has the following three parts, which are reflected in the structure of this document.

Part A Context for the carbon neutral strategy

Section 2 sets out the strategic context for the carbon neutral strategy. It signposts to current

scientific evidence and summarises Jersey s existing international obligations and energy policy;

Section 3 sets out the defining principles that the Council of Ministers believe should shape

our carbon neutral journey.

Part B Planning and developing a long-term climate action plan

Section 4 sets out:

the proposal for a people-powered approach to deliberating and recommending how

Jersey should become carbon neutral;

the policy objectives and rationale behind this approach; the process to be followed; and

the roles and responsibilities of different groups, including a mandate for Jersey s first

citizens assembly.

Section 5 presents a high-level review of policies that could drive radical reductions in Jersey s

emissions by 2030 and summarises key considerations related to offsetting residual emissions.

Part C Delivering together in 2020

Recognising the urgent nature of the climate emergency, Section 6 sets out an initial delivery

plan of foundation policies that will be implemented in 2020, alongside the development of the long-term climate action plan.

 Section 7 sets out:

 how delivery will be governed;

 key financial considerations; and

 considerations for our energy markets.

 Section 8 concludes the strategy and sets out key next steps.

Each part of the strategy is underpinned by the available technical evidence base, which will be published alongside this strategy on gov.je/climateemergency.

3. Declaring a climate emergency

In May 2019, the States of Jersey Assembly voted to agree P.27/2019, and declare that[4]:

there exists a climate emergency likely to have profound effects in Jersey, and that in order to deal with this situation...

Jersey should aim to be carbon-neutral by 2030, and the Council of Ministers is accordingly requested to draw up a plan to achieve this, for presentation to the States by the end of 2019

This carbon neutral strategy responds to P.27/2019 and builds on the progress made through the energy plan, Pathway 2050.

In March 2007, the UKs ratification of the Kyoto Protocol was extended to the Bailiwick of Jersey. The protocol requires Jersey to reduce its carbon emissions by 80% by 2050, relative to 1990 levels. In 2014, the States Assembly adopted the energy plan for Jersey detailing a set of actions designed to help Jersey achieve the 80% emission reduction target.

Jersey has already made progress in implementing of the 2014 Energy Plan, and emissions have been reduced by 47% relative to the levels in 1990. The figure below illustrates the emissions pathway since 1990.

The adopted Energy Plan policies addressing affordability and security of energy of supply remain and underpin this work. Whilst this strategy focuses on building the foundations for long-term change; it also includes a 2020 delivery plan that continues many of the agreed action statements from the energy plan, and implements them over an accelerated timescale.

Fig. 1 annual on-island emissions 1990 - 2017

900

800

700

600

Energy Supply Transport

500

Residential Business

400

Agriculture

Waste Management 300

Land Use Change Grand Total

200

100

0

-100

P.27/2019 also set out that:

the Minister for the Environment is requested to carry out, as part of the process for drawing up the forthcoming Government Plan for 2020, an examination and assessment of more ambitious policies to accelerate carbon reduction. This will include an assessment of the use of fiscal levers to change behaviour and raise awareness.

The Chief Minister is requested to ensure that consideration of action to tackle climate change in Jersey is included as a standing item on the agenda of the Council of Ministers.

The strategy responds in the following ways:

IwfrSaTAnuenhhrhtsoJoueoipcuurtrohechltnylaen.ydorT2srba ta2uAtFTmicoeh0nphrfohtuhnn0n  iate1lrresppieannoe9eneden1iunrlsdanp,ea-n9Ctsbtsgtttg;iiocdprehhtnhe.ol aepaireis aiuegeserrtnut,aiolhdehtto.et wdndirCorr eoHegar edvcocehondltyeavicfich liGus,sl  ivnasoheloi etPnan, ioissrant  nfow.cra  eu5cervsJa-gMitanenrIl2 ouet osfebioinsrot/l olng fnnyae2efu oftr infiyomhnse0rs M2wgt si tahdanorn1u0e ec iy9 te n npgf an r1etl d,t,9t sd iahrlht sdmtea  oi,hlu he tPnoic etvnperwihaasllee vpdcisaoCrtemsvh esclnlesoo rioeaiuortseacepp ssuanuanhtscddwukeenn lnsoso  ebeaidcda tt dunienai dhldritninl resimsti higincnoson tt ihJd odhe ieadfn easeias eesb  rmMtitcc drli gr harr ll sdeacloMeaeuie eeapfnorctcde dene ientyirtn caasrecdn gaa rbiftatiisry eode nea cynt reco,t, iai cn retesctaanf iisauu intc oprry adtn ieuoesrnot lnfJA  nefi osee n f rr uemwut ttep eurt soasnw  f oadp pi Iprn i t eno ol fnothe oof arofid f asmobner2n rl ctnJa i ti chpc ad C0rkinest olrey doi l1rilestrxweig n9atre mrsatap uytnr1,ec l traiso.ir ac,nf t asevlyi eho innl ttpgcbme ekuespc gc korr ry  asoiiiu  Elei rSnpn infca t m nrtomegttl .hsgte  a gf chopTusue ecsttu:el ehi hteuda rhen hss gesel augnms ee eoednlAsst etde nanu cgna ut so  crn l twec iscsiadyuc mytn taelaitt iaalyet m  aFrlmarooi itbgcnybn tub aeebfotyael ndt hti al.ln ehb en dyeoepce l mnegcah iu   neui g et,nt  umrr ri ae gttier nae eansld nl pt  cs o y.  r t  A

 The review of ambitious policies is set out in Section 5;

policy (STP), published alongside this report, sets a range of initial plans and an ambitious future

vision of,

 a transport system that makes our everyday lives better,

supports businesses, encourages us and our children to be

healthier and makes our Island greener, today and for tomorrow.

Working with the STP, this carbon neutral strategy sets the context for how we seek to deliver our

transport vision in future years.

Carbon Neutral Strategy  13

AEcasrtbabolnisnheinugtraal strategy

14 Carbon Neutral Strategy  / 2 Establishing a the carbon neutral strategy 14

2 Context for the carbon  neutral strategy

This section builds on the Initial Report on Tackling the Climate Emergency[1] published by the Council of Ministers in July 2019. It sets out some of the key considerations that inform the proposals set out in this strategy.

2.1  Global scientific context

In March 2007, the UKs ratification of the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was extended to the Bailiwick of Jersey. The protocol requires Jersey to reduce its on-island ( scope 1 ) carbon emissions by 80% by 2050, relative to 1990 levels.

Fig. 1 shows how, by 2012, Jersey had managed to achieve a 28% reduction in carbon emissions relative to 1990 levels. This reduction was primarily a result of switching from on-island electricity generation to a supply of low carbon electricity imported from France.

Fig. 1 annual on-island emissions 1990 - 2017

900

800

700

600

Energy Supply Transport

500

Residential Business

400

Agriculture

Waste Management 300

Land Use Change Grand Total

200

100

0

-100

In December 2015, the Paris Agreement was adopted, proposing a set of stricter carbon reduction targets. Jersey became a signatory to the Doha amendment6 to the Kyoto protocol in 2018 and has subsequently requested that the Paris agreement is extended to Jersey through the UK in line with the process for ratification of international conventions.

The latest scientific evidence tells us that the previous emissions reduction targets are not ambitious enough to stabilise the climate and reduce the negative impacts of climate change.

In October 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a report that was two years in the production and included the assessment of more than 6,000 scientific studies. It gathered all the available scientific literature and laid out two future scenarios: one in which the Earth s average temperature increases by 1.5 C above pre-industrial temperatures (since around 1850); and one in which it increased by 2 C.

The report concluded that we are on track to reach 1.5 C between 2030 and 2052 if temperatures continued to increase at the current rate, and 3 C by the end of the century. Once we hit 2 C warming, the world will be a profoundly different place. There will be almost no coral reefs remaining, the Arctic will be completely devoid of ice during summer at least once a decade, and a huge number of animals and plants will become extinct as their habitats decrease. The IPCC also concluded that it was extremely likely that most of the observed increase in global temperature since the 1950s is due to human activity.

The impact for humans of future temperature rises will be enormous, particularly in areas already vulnerable to rising sea levels. The IPCC warn that sea level rise will drive millions from their homes, and crop yields will fall dramatically in sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central and South America.

Jersey is already planning for the impact of sea level rise and has prepared a draft Shoreline Management Plan7, which models the impact of sea water flooding, and sets a range of policies to manage the different parts of the Island s coast over the next 100 years.

To stay below the 1.5 C target, and avoid the impacts of 2 C temperature rise, the IPCC advised that unprecedented changes will be needed, requiring serious effort at every level of society.

Understanding greenhouse gas emissions

As part of international emissions reporting, all greenhouse gasses are calculated and reported as carbon equivalents, using a range of agreed formula. For the purposes of this report reference to carbon emissions also includes emissions from other greenhouse gases. The six main greenhouse gases (GHG) are:

 Methane (CH4);

 Carbon dioxide (CO2);

 Nitrous oxide (N2O);

 Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs);

 Perfluorocarbons (PFCs); and

 Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6).

HFCs, PFCs and SF6 are commonly referred to as F-gases .

6 https://www.aether-uk.com/Resources/Jersey-Infographic

7 https://www.gov.je/environment/generateenergy/pages/shorelinemanagementplan.aspx

16 Carbon Neutral Strategy  / 2 Establishing a the carbon neutral strategy

56% 18% 13% 7%

6%

Carbon Dioxide Methane

CFCs

Ozone

Nitrous oxide

As well as different greenhouse gases, it is necessary to distinguish the different scope of emissions that is being considered. There are three key areas discussed in this strategy:

Scope 1 emissions are the direct emissions generated from on-Island activities.

Examples include the emissions that come from burning oil or gas to heat buildings, or emissions from driving petrol or diesel vehicles. Our international obligations currently extend only to our scope 1 emissions which are monitored, independently validated and reported on an annual basis via the UK s accredited auditor, Aether[1].

Scope 2 emissions are those arising from the generation of any imported energy. In the

case of Jersey this includes the 95% of our electricity that we import. Global emissions accounting considers the emissions from energy production to accrue to the country in which it is generated (in this case, France), but it is clear that the emissions are the result of energy use in Jersey.

Scope 3 describes the emissions associated with the manufacture and transport of

the goods and services consumed in Jersey. This includes the full life cycle emissions throughout a supply chain (including those associated with end

of life recycling and/or disposal) and emissions arising from global activities of Jersey businesses. Scope 3 emissions are driven by the choices and behaviours of jersey residents and businesses but are accounted for as scope 1 emissions in the country in which they were generated. Obvious examples of scope 3 emissions include those from:

 energy used to manufacture the phones, cars and computers we buy;  the burning of marine diesel when shipping food to Jersey; ande

 any aviation fuel consumed when people from Jersey fly, where that fuel

was not taken on-board at Jersey Airport.

Supporting documents are published alongside this strategy9 that explain in more detail how Jersey s local and global emissions are scoped and accounted for. These documents help to make clear the evidence that underpins decisions made by the Council of Ministers in respect of scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions. Most of this work has been co-commissioned by the Government of Jersey and the States of Guernsey, which have agreed to take a joint approach to development of a shared technical evidence base.

9 https://www.gov.je/climateemergency

18 Carbon Neutral Strategy  / 2.1 Global scientific context

2.2.  Policy Context

Climate change impacts on all aspects of policy. The context in which this carbon neutral strategy is set is therefore extremely wide-ranging and the inter-relationships between the plans set out in this document and wider aims and objectives are necessarily complex and will evolve over time. This section sets out a summary of a small number of key strategic issues that have significant policy implications for the carbon neutral strategy.

Future Jersey

The Future Jersey community vision, published in March 2018, sets out a range of priorities across ten social, environmental and economic areas. It presents an aspirational vision for how people want Jersey to develop in the coming years.

Future Jersey is clear that people in Jersey are concerned about climate change and want to see and support more action.

Long-term strategic framework

The Council of Ministers has agreed that Jersey needs to pursue a long-term strategic approach that ensures that decisions taken in the short- and medium-term work towards creating a sustainable society, a sustainable economy and a strong partnership between a modern government, responsible businesses, Jersey s stakeholders and Islanders.

This is important, because many of the changes that Jersey needs to make will only bear fruit over a long-term timeframe. Decisions on whether, when and where to invest in infrastructure, for instance, will benefit Islanders over decades, not just years.

We have made significant progress in supporting and setting a strategic framework, which brings together the relationship between the ambitions of a new long-term Island Plan and practical actions that will be set out in the medium-term Government Plan. This includes early consideration of how best to meet the requirement of the new Public Finances Law to consider and plan for the long-term sustainable wellbeing of Islanders.

Common Strategic Policy

The Common Strategic Policy[1], setting out the Council of Ministers five strategic priorities of this Government s term of office, was agreed unanimously by the States Assembly in December 2018. This carbon neutral strategy impacts each of the strategic priorities, as outlined below.

We will protect and value    Ambitious contribution to global carbon

our environment by embracing  reduction targets

environmental innovation and ambition,    Investing in environmental enhancement

by protecting the natural environment  and restoration, recognising the value and through conservation, protection,  contribution of biodiversity and natural carbon sustainable resource use and demand  sinks on-Island.

management, and by improving the built

environment, to retain the sense of place,    Creation of liveable places and spaces through culture and distinctive local identity. links with the sustainable transport policy and

Island Plan.

Put children first

Improve protect and  islanders

value our  wellbeing and environment CLIMATE  mental and

physical health EMERGENCY

reduce income  create a inequality and  sustainable,

improve the  vibrant economy standard of  and skilled local

living workforce for the future

Government Plan

The Government Plan 2020-23[2], is a rolling four-year plan. It integrates business planning with the necessary funding framework, and replaces the Medium-Term Financial Plan. It sets out how public money will be spent to deliver the day-to-day business of government and on strategic priorities and areas for improvement. The plan includes commitments that government will:

act with energy and pace to respond to the climate emergency, and become a sustainable

low-carbon Island; and

establish a Climate Emergency Fund, with an initial allocation of £5 million and additional funds

from annual increases in fuel duty.

Future Government Plans will in turn respond to the long-term climate action plan developed in 2020.

Island Plan

Preparation has begun on the new Island Plan 2021-30, which will be developed during 2020. It will replace the current Island Plan, which is predominantly a spatial land-use plan, guiding planning decisions. The Island Plan doesn t just govern where buildings can and can t be built, it determines how we ll protect our natural environment; it shapes the Island that our children will grow up in, the places and communities in which we ll grow older; and how we support Jersey s changing needs.

Climate Change is identified as a key strategic issue for the new Island Plan, and it is anticipated that the Island Plan Review will be bold in providing the strategic planning framework for the Climate Emergency and will consider how technologies that can support the Island s transition to a low carbon future can be accommodated.

Creating good quality places, which nurture strong communities, is a priority, as is continuing to support a sustainable Island economy.

Pathway 2050 an energy plan for Jersey

The States Assembly, in 2014, agreed a carbon reduction plan, Pathway 2050 An Energy Plan for Jersey[3].

In line with our Kyoto obligations, successful implementation of the polices in Pathway 2050 should deliver the projected reduction in scope 1 emissions shown by the yellow line on the graph below; nearly 80% lower than 1990 levels by 2050. Without any policies to reduce emissions, conservative projections are that emissions will follow a business as usual trajectory indicated by the red line.

Fig. 2 annual on-island emissions 1990 - 2017

900

800

700

600

500 Business as usua

Historica emissions 400 Reduction target

With Interventions 300

200 100 0

The trajectory of historic emissions (dark green line) demonstrate that Jersey has made good progress in reducing emissions since 1990. This is primarily due to the transition from heavy fuel oil power generation in the Island to imported electricity. Around 70% of our imported electricity is nuclear generated, and around 30% is certified renewable generation from the tidal barrage at La Rance. As noted above, carbon emissions associated with the production of electricity used in Jersey are accounted for in France.

Pathway 2050, proposed 27 targeted actions to:

 reduce energy demand;

 ensure energy security and resilience; and

 ensure energy was affordable.

Nearly 70% of the total reduction in greenhouse gas emissions was planned to come from the following four policies:

 applying energy-efficient measures to houses built before 1997;

 increasing the number of ultra-low emission vehicles on Jersey roads;

 the received benefit of improved EU emissions standards for traditional cars; and  energy efficiency improvements in the private sector.

Pathway 2050 was the product of several years research and development. Without the underpinning analysis that informs it, and the learning accrued in recent years from the policy capability that has been funded to implement it, it would not have been possible to prepare this

carbon neutral strategy in time to meet the end of 2019 deadline set by the States Assembly. Accordingly, the 2020 delivery plan set out in Appendix 4 recommends the continuation of many of the agreed actions, over an accelerated timescale.

Similarly it has not been possible, or at this stage necessary, to revisit the policies of affordability and security of energy of supply set out in Pathway 2050. Further work in these areas will continue and will be set out in the long-term climate emergency action plan brought to the States Assembly in 2020.

P.88/2017

In 2018, an independent study[4] was undertaken in response to part (b) of P.88/2017 to consider the introduction of a standby charge by Jersey Electricity for embedded energy generators. Part (b) required to research into the implications of such charges for the competitiveness of the market for the generation and supply of electricity in Jersey .

The report and findings provide the basis for carrying out two other pieces of work which inform the strategic context of the climate emergency response and implementation of this strategy. These are firstly, the development of a policy position on renewable energy, grid investment and Jersey Electricity s tariff structure; and secondly, the update of the Electricity (Jersey) 1937 Law. It is recognised that this is a substantial and far-reaching piece of work that will require very careful consideration and wide stakeholder consultation before proposals can be bought before the Assembly. Outstanding work to respond to P88/2017 will be brought within the scope of this strategy, as set out in section 7.

Adapting to climate change

Regardless of the approach we take to becoming carbon neutral, Jersey will have to adapt to the existing inevitable effects of climate change. These include increased flood risk, temperature increases resulting in overheating, changes to weather patterns and the arrival of new non-native or invasive species. Adapting to these impacts will be addressed by a range of other strategies and policies.

We have already started to take action to prepare for the impacts of climate change. The Jersey Shoreline Management Plan (SMP), to be published in January 2020, details the management intent for the Island s coastline over the next 100 years (up to 2120) to prevent and manage the effects of coastal erosion and flooding. The impact of climate change on rising sea levels over time has been assessed, and the plan considers risks to the community, environment and economy

of Jersey. It takes into account the coastal defences that are around the Island and assesses how they might need to be improved to provide better protection where needed.

The risk of coastal erosion and flooding has been assessed for the next 100 years using hydraulic modelling, historic maps and beach surveys to identify the areas of the coastline which are likely to flood and where erosion is likely to occur. Coastal flood risk from still water levels and wave overtopping is shown on Island-wide flood maps.

The SMP proposes management options over three time periods over the next 100 years. The best option for the shoreline, nearby communities and infrastructure is proposed. This makes

it easier for the Government of Jersey to plan how to put improvements in place. The SMP management options and flood risk maps will be used to inform the development of the Island Plan during 2020.

The Government Plan also provides additional funding for adapting to climate change, including funding for a series of measures to improve the protection offered to natural habitats and species. New partnerships and approaches will be supported to explore indicators of connectedness to nature and support for initiatives to improve connectedness, such as Wild about Jersey , eco active, volunteer activities and citizen science; alongside improved access to the countryside and wild places through investment in country access infrastructure and the National Park.

Additional scientific research into Jersey s marine environment will be undertaken. This is an area of both local and international focus, for example on the blue economy , blue carbon , species protection, marine plastics, fisheries management and fisheries agreements (in particular during and beyond Brexit).

The challenge invasive and non-native species arriving in Jersey as a result of climate change is also addressed. The aim is to prevent their further advancement and establishment where possible, particularly with regard to Asian hornets, sea squirts and Japanese knotweed.

Population and migration

The Migration Policy Development Board was set up to develop comprehensive migration policy proposals which will deliver more responsive controls over who can come to live, work and access public services in Jersey, improving consistency wherever practical and helping to reduce the Island s reliance on inward migration.

The Migration Policy Development Board has published an interim report[5] summarising its research surrounding migration controls and how any changes could be used to help reduce the Island s reliance on inward migration. The findings of the board will be published in early 2020 and will form an important part of the future strategic context for climate change.

Economic context

The prosperity of our Island, and the funding of the services on which we rely, depends on a sustainable, vibrant and inclusive economy, underpinned by a skilled local workforce to serve it. We will need to consider how our economy needs to respond and adapt to the climate emergency.

Jersey has a rich economic history, based on fisheries, agriculture, tourism and the now dominant financial sector. As such we have little carbon intensive industry apart from on-Island back up power generation and some quarrying and reprocessing activity (see Fig. 3, below). We have successfully maintained all these sectors within our economy, and recognise their importance in our shared history, culture and prosperity.

The financial and professional services sector has been the bedrock of our economy over recent decades. This means that Jersey has an extensive global reach in terms of the nature, influence and impact of its economic activity across the world, necessarily underpinned by regular off-Island travel. Many of the leading businesses in this sector recognise both the environmental benefits and potential competitive advantage of pursuing ambitious carbon neutral programmes. There are opportunities to support, work with and learn from these businesses in developing and delivering of our long-term climate action plan.

Fig.3 Gross Value Added (GVA) by sector

Gross Value Added by sector (constant

2018 values)

Financial services

Rental income of private 6.7% households

Other business activities 39.2% (excluding rental)

7.1%

Public administration 8.7% Construction

Wholesale & retail 11.2%

15.1% Hotels, restaurants & bars

Transport, storage and communication

Carbon Neutral Strategy  / 2.2 Policy Context 27

3 Our defining principles

This section sets out a series of principles that establish the scope of the emissions addressed by this carbon neutral strategy, define carbon neutrality for Jersey, establish priorities and underpin the people-powered approach that we will take to agree and implement future policies and programmes.

Each principle has been considered and agreed separately and in their collective form by the Council of Ministers. The principles have also been shared and considered by the multi stakeholder energy forum[1].

Members of the States Assembly will be asked to endorse the principles when adopting this strategy. Together, the principles set the initial parameters necessary to begin our shared future conversation about a low carbon future.

The overarching carbon reduction target of the Pathway 2050 energy plan was based on the principles of using secure, affordable sustainable energy. It provided a policy framework to recognise that secure and affordable energy underpins economic growth and contributes to social equity.

The agreed policies of affordability and security of supply as set out in the energy plan form part of the definition used in this strategy in addition to the four principles.

1. Principle 1

We will adopt a strategic focus on all emissions

This carbon neutral strategy, and the long-term climate action plan that we will develop together in 2020, will recognise and have a strategic focus on Jersey s scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions[1].

It is important that we understand the impact our local choices have across the world, including recognising the impact that Jersey based businesses can have.

2. Principle 2

We will work within a definition of carbon neutrality

Carbon neutral is defined as balancing the scope 1 and 2 emissions we produce against any activity that captures, absorbs or reduces global emissions so that they are equal. By including scope 2 emissions we are exceeding our international legal obligations.

Scope 3 emissions are recognised, and the long-term climate action plan will include policies and programmes to support people, businesses and government to make more sustainable choices that reduce Scope 3 emissions created on our behalf across the world, but Scope 3 emissions do not form part of the baseline for carbon neutrality.

3. Principle 3

We will require high standards in the use of carbon offsetting

1. It is appropriate to use carbon offsetting where emissions cannot be abated, but offsets on their own are not a route to carbon neutral and should only be used where they are accompanied by a robust and ambitious measures to reduce emissions.
2. As a responsible and ambitious jurisdiction any offset arrangements that Jersey enters into will be of the highest recognised standards.

4. Principle 4

We will make sure that everyone can play their part

Whole Island ownership of the climate challenge is critical to its success. Government will use all available options to deliver the long-term climate action plan, but government action must form part of a wider, collaborative approach.

Planning and B

developing a long-term

climate action plan

4 A people-powered  approach

Giving people a say over the level and timing of our carbon neutral ambition is key to encouraging a sense of public ownership. This section describes the people-powered approach we will follow in order to achieve this, and sets out the different ways we can all get involved.

1. A people-powered approach

The climate emergency is a global challenge, but action at a global level alone will not be enough. The choices we each make on a daily basis in our businesses and organisations; and as members of our local communities drive the political and economic forces that global actors respond to. Changing our personal and shared behaviour at the local level is a necessary first step if we are to live more sustainably and slow the rate of climate change.

As we set out in our initial report on tackling the climate emergency[1]:

Whole-Island ownership of the climate emergency challenge is critical to its success, and to agreeing and achieving an ambitious pathway to a carbon neutral future.

Government has an important role to play to shape this action at the local level. It can use the tax, regulatory and legal systems to shape local markets and to incentivise and disincentivise certain choices. It can bring people together, share information and make available the space and time necessary to discuss and agree plans and shared actions. There is a clear commitment from the States Assembly, through this strategy, to use these and other means to help tackle the climate emergency.

Government action though must form part of a wider, collaborative approach. Our initial report made clear that the Government would:

Explore opportunities to put individual citizen and community action at the heart of our response, creating the conditions in which bottom-up initiatives flourish and Islanders support each other to change their behaviours and adapt to lower carbon lifestyles.

That is why, for the first time in Jersey and ahead of many other jurisdictions we are making a firm commitment to putting people-power at the heart of our approach to tackling the climate emergency. This open, inclusive approach goes far beyond consulting on plans that have

been prepared on behalf of Islanders, or workshopping ideas about how to implement existing strategies. It is a bold and wide-ranging commitment to share with local people the responsibility to design our ambition for the future and the policies and programmes that can see us achieve it.

From crowd-sourcing policy ideas, to engaging in a formal, Island-wide citizens assembly or playing your part in designing and implementing community action plans, Jersey will lead the way in developing a people-powered response to the climate emergency.

2. The elements of the people-powered approach?

The people-powered approach follows an understanding of the different aspects of, and accountability for, good decision making. This understanding is based on a model developed by global management consultants, Bain and Company[2], as re-imagined for participatory decision making by the New Citizenship Project[3] which describes the following stages:

 providing input: this might include ideas, experience, information or views (which may or

may not be reflected in the final proposals);

 recommending one or more decisions or actions, based on the input received;  deciding which of these recommendations to follow and proposing a plan;

 agreeing to the proposed course of action; and

 performing, together, to deliver the agreed course of action.

The people-powered approach reinforces the importance of Government, elected politicians and citizens (including businesses as corporate citizens) working side by side in the roles that they are best suited to. These suggested roles are set out in detail, across each stage of the participatory process, in the table at Appendix 3.

There is a need for robust scrutiny by the States Assembly, media, and social media and ongoing debate and decision making throughout the process. Citizen participation and deliberation is designed to enhance and support existing democratic institutions and norms and all decision- making power remains with elected representatives in Government and the States Assembly.

Parish and other community governance and engagement will also play a key role. Drawing on

the honorary tradition, and recognising the parish assembly as an institution rooted in direct democracy, the people-powered approach provides an opportunity to catalyse local community planning and action, to give all Islanders a clear role and to begin to address climate change from the grassroots. Support will be available through eco active to support parishes and community groups to build an infrastructure of local delivery and, where they wish, to agree community action plans so that people across the Island can play their part in tackling the climate emergency.

3. Why we need to start with people-power

The science of climate change is not new. Governments, businesses and civil society across the world have made significant commitments to addressing the drivers of climate change for several decades.

Despite these commitments and the associated efforts of many, progress has been slow and hard to achieve. There are many reasons for this:

 the use of hydrocarbon technologies is deeply woven into the fabric of our daily lives

and underpins our economy and society;

 there are an abundance of policies that might be implemented, uncertainty about

future technologies and on-going disagreement about where to invest and at what pace ;

 the scale of the challenge and lack of progress to date can its self be a barrier to

action[1];

 despite international frameworks for action, climate change especially in a small

jurisdiction like Jersey is a text book example of the free-rider problem[2]; and

 the costs and benefits of climate change are inter-generational: future generations

will pay the cost of the choices we make today and (perhaps a greater challenge) concerted action requires current tax payers to bear the costs of investing for the benefit of those not yet born.

Each of these characteristics alone presents a barrier to taking collective action. Together, they present a uniquely difficult challenge to the way we discuss and make decisions on public matters, both in Jersey and across the world. While we have made good progress in implementing existing policies, the challenge to achieve carbon neutrality requires us to think and act differently and to share power and responsibility more widely.

Given these challenges, it is no surprise that governments across the world are looking to work more closely with people in response to climate change. In the UK alone at least 11 local authorities have implemented citizens assemblies, in places such as Camden, Oxford and Leeds, and six Parliamentary Select Committees recently launched a citizens assembly to consider a pathway to carbon neutrality.

Our people-powered approach incorporates a major citizens assembly, but also includes other participatory processes that will give a wider group of people the opportunity to be involved in setting out ideas and taking action to tackle climate change.

Carbon Neutral Strategy  35

4. What are the benefits of a people-powered approach?

There are good reasons to take a people-powered approach to defining, designing and delivering our carbon neutral ambition in Jersey. These are set out below to show the intention behind this way of working.

In developing this approach we have drawn on the wide range of learning from innovative programmes that have in recent years explored how best to develop public policy and programmes on a collaborative basis. These include the UK Cabinet Office Open Policy Making Model[1], NESTA work on people-powered public services[2], the OECD Open Government programme[3] and a range of international approaches to applying design practice to public policy development[4].

Benefit 1:

By working with people, we hope to increase the public s sense of ownership of Jersey s carbon neutral journey and their commitment to the changes it requires

Giving people a say over the level and timing of our carbon neutral ambition is key to encouraging this sense of ownership. People will be at the heart of identifying the best steps to take to deliver our ambition but they will also be asked what they think about the pace and nature of the transition to a low carbon future.

This sense of ownership is a key foundation for a long-term shift in behaviours. Evidence from behavioural economics[5] supports the idea that making a clear public commitment to achieve something can significantly increase the likelihood that the achievement is sustained.

An extensive public engagement exercise should help facilitate large scale public commitment to tackling climate change in Jersey. If successful, this should act as a protective factor and foundation for sustainable change over the coming years.

Benefit 2:

Working with people will improve the quality of our long-termclimate action plan:

Our approach will open the process of:

 considering what our carbon neutral ambition should be;

 considering what opportunities exist to reduce and sequester carbon on-Island,

and to develop our international offset programme; and

 exploring people s opinions.

A rich public discussion about these issues should improve the quality of our carbon neutral strategy, by;

 increasing the range of ideas that policy makers and local communities can draw

on in deciding how best to act,

 increase understanding about the potential impact and implications of policy

options; and

 helping Islanders understand the intention behind policies and how they fit into

the larger, shared journey towards carbon neutrality.

Benefit 3:

By working with people we increase the chances that carbon neutrality can become a focal point for increased public engagement and civic action; over time, this increased activity should strengthen social bonds and may increase trust in public institutions

The importance of social capital in building strong communities is widely recognised.

Jersey has strong local communities and a historic tradition of parish assembly and debate. Drawing on these foundations, the Island is well placed to put participatory approaches to policy making at the heart of it's carbon neutral journey.

In contrast to these deep roots of community participation, Jersey under performs in comparison to its peers on many modern indicators of civic engagement[6].

Evidence from other deliberative processes shows that they can increase political efficacy

in both participants and non-participants[7]. Pursuing a people-powered approach to carbon neutrality, including a formal citizens assembly and extensive local community engagement and activity, should create new opportunities for people to understand the institutions and systems of governance on the Island and may over time help increase trust in public institutions.

5. Timeline for the people-powered process

This section outlines the different phases of the people-powered approach that will run throughout 2020. The key phases overlap and are summarised in the diagram below.

States Assembly Debate Strategy

Dec 2019 Feb - Sept Apr - Jul Jul - Oct Autumn Ongoing

Strategy Input Reccommend Decide Agree Deliver Input phase (February September)

This phase is launched by the Government, which will pose the question,

 How should we work together to become carbon neutral?

An Island-wide call for ideas begins, which is anchored in the following ways:

 Aan ideas website will be launched and widely promoted. The website will allow anyone to

suggest an initiative or policy idea. Events will be held to help people engage with the process and to encourage schools, businesses, faith and community groups and others to take up and ask the question, directing ideas and responses to the website, written responses will also be welcomed;

 parishes will be invited to build on their early action to lead community climate action networks

involving local people and businesses. eco active will continue to provide support and advice to these networks, and strong ideas that emerge from this work will be considered for future investment from the climate emergency fund;

 an Island-wide youth engagement programme will begin, working with the youth service,

schools and youth groups to develop a climate emergency youth action plan, strong ideas from which will be considered for future investment from the climate emergency fund; and

 the eco active business network will work together to understand the range of ways they are

responding to the climate emergency and new ways they might contribute to a carbon neutral future.

The Government has published a range of evidence alongside this carbon neutral strategy, and further information and advice materials will be provided online throughout the input phase.

Recommend Citizens Assembly (April-July)

The strategy invites the States Assembly to call a citizens assembly to explore key issues related to the nature and pace of Jersey s transition to carbon neutrality.

If the Mandate (set out at Appendix 3) is agreed, a citizens assembly will be convened that will: be tasked to respond to the question How should we work together to become carbon neutral? ; and to produce a report including recommendations, that will be shared with States Assembly Members and the Government.

The mandate provides that the citizens assembly should consider:

the implications and trade-offs of a range of scenarios for achieving carbon neutrality and

when and how a full transition to zero (or almost zero) emissions in key sectors might be

achieved.

This includes considering alternative deadlines for carbon neutrality, and for zero carbon, that might fall before or after 2030.

The citizens assembly will be supported by independent trained facilitators, who will help the assembly deliberate key issues in a way that promotes critical thinking and consensus. Logistical and other support will also be provided by the States Greffe. This will include a dedicated clerk to the citizens assembly.

The report of the citizens assembly will be published and sent to all States Members. Ministers will respond to the report and take any recomendations into account in the decide phase.

Decide (July October)

The Government will prepare and propose a long-term climate action plan that draws on:

the policy framework and principles for carbon neutrality set out in this strategy;

the recommendations and report of the citizens assembly;

the existing evidence base, further planned studies and any additional research available at

that time;

community and youth climate action plans; and

suggestions from the iinput phase, where appropriate.

The long-term climate action plan will set out a clear target date for carbon neutrality and the range of policies, including fiscal measures, required to deliver that ambition.

The Government will also publish a response to the citizens assembly. This will set out where recommendations are accepted and how they will be implemented. Where the Government does

not propose to implement a recommendation of the citizens assembly a clear and reasoned justification will be given.

Agreement (Autumn)

A full, Island-wide public consultation will be held on the final proposed strategy. The Strategy will be scrutinised by the States Assembly.

Following any amendments, the Government will lodge the long-term climate action plan in the States Assembly as a report and proposition.

Upon agreement, any policies to be given effect via the planning system may be brought as amendments to the draft Island Plan, and any measures requiring funding in 2021 may be brought as amendments to the Government Plan.

Delivery phase

Upon adoption, a range of policies will be implemented and further developed for agreement.

A collaborative approach to delivering these new policies and programmes, that builds on the established local plans and networks, will bring together all stakeholders on an on-going basis.

5 How might we make

  progress towards carbon  neutrality?

The primary focus of this section is on policy scenarios that could make significant progress towards carbon neutrality, defined as balancing the scope 1 and 2 emissions we produce against any activity that captures, absorbs or reduces global emissions so that they are equal.

The request for a carbon neutral strategy by the end of 2019 necessarily means that only a first phase of analysis has been completed[8]. In this first phase, the most significant questions in relation to the most significant challenges (reducing emissions from road transport and heating) have been considered; this does not preclude further policy research in other areas in the future.

There are two caveats to be kept in mind when considering this section:

 The measures explored are not policy proposals for Jersey, they are illustrative scenarios

based on an analysis of politics in place in other jurisdictions; and

 The identified costs are the costs to Government of the policy scenarios if they were to be

implemented. This is not the same as the cost of the carbon neutrality for Jersey.

The information below is provided to inform discussions about key carbon neutral challenges and to show the type and level of analysis necessary to develop and prioritise a full suite of carbon abatement policies.

1. Establishing a baseline for carbon neutrality

Jersey s Scope 1 greenhouse gas emissions are monitored and reported through the annual greenhouse gas emissions inventory[9] and the Jersey Energy Trends Report[10]. The information used to compile the emissions inventory is provided by Government and Island fuel suppliers and is submitted to UK emissions inventory experts for independent analysis and verification[11]. The provision of this information is a requirement of the UK s Kyoto reporting, which has been extended to Jersey. The Jersey inventory is returned for publication 12 months after submission. The time lag is due to the extensive quality assurance and verification process which is carried out externally to meet international emissions reporting standards.

The ring chart at Fig. 4 below shows that current emissions from key areas of activity in 2017 are around 359,000 tonnes of CO2eq. Successful implementation of the agreed policies set out in Pathway 2050 would see our Scope 1 emissions reduce to around 277,000 tonnes of CO2eq.

Fig.4 2017 and 2030 emissions profiles

Outer ring - 2017 Emissions (359,000 t/CO2)

Inner ring - Projected 2030 emissions after Energy Plan interventions (277,000 t/CO2)

Gases from air conditioning, medical use and insulators

Waste water treatment

On-island electricity Agricultural emissions  generation and EfW

e.g. from livestock

Air transport Oil and gas heating in

the residential sector

Oil and gas heating in

the commercial sector  Transport fuels (includes government)

Fig.5 Scope 1 emissions by inventory reporting sector

Fig 5. also shows the key sectors in which these emissions arise.

4%

51% 15% 3% Transport

Business

Residential

Energy supply -2% 6% 22% Agriculture

Waste management

Land use change

This baseline shows that nearly 90% of Jersey s scope 1 emissions originate from three sources: transport fuels (including land, air and marine transport) and oil and gas used for space heating in the business and residential sectors. In line with Principle 2, the Government has commissioned research to understand the total scope 2 emissions associated with Jersey s imported electricity. Total scope 2 emissions from electricity and their % contribution to the combined emissions for scope 1 and 2 for Jersey are presented in Fig. 6 below.

In 2017 a total of 3 kt CO2eq are associated with imported electricity. This accounts for less than 1% (0.8%) of the total scope 1 and 2 emissions for Jersey for 2017. The methodology for estimating these emissions is described in a supporting document33.

Together, these scope 1 and 2 emissions provide the baseline from which we will aim for carbon neutrality.

33 gov.je/climateemergency

Fig.6 Jersey total Scope 1 and 2 emissions 2014-2017 9kt CO2eq)

Source: Aether scope 2 emissions report

Jersey total Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions 2014 - 2017 (kt CO2eq)

ZZ_Imported Electricity (Scope 2)  2.8  2.9  2.9  3.0 Total including scope 2 (imported electricity

419.9  379.1  399.2  368.5 emissions)

% of total emissions from imported electricity  0.66%  0.78%  0.73%  0.80%

1) Based on new estimates provided by Jersey Electricity using total mass of waste burned for energy and default IPCC emission factors. Jersey Electricity estimates (10.5 kt CO2 eq in 2017) need further exploration but are significantly lower than the current cruder NAEI based estimates (which are 18 kt CO2eq in 2017).

Jersey total Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions 2014 - 2017 (kt CO2eq) 600.0

500.0

400.0

300.0

200.0

100.0

0.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 -100.0

Agriculture Business Energy Supply Source: AJEe tPhlaentr  (sFcueo lp/Geas 2 oi e l)missions  Er nergyeporftrom Waste (MSW)1 Land Use Change

Residential Transport Waste Management

ZZ_Imported Electricity (Scope 2)

2. Developing long-term policy options

Principle 2 acknowledges that we are not planning to abate all Jersey s carbon emissions by 2030, but rather to make faster progress in abating emissions, alongside the introduction of new offsetting measures. Together with the profile of Jersey s emissions outlined above, this suggests that the priority policy actions for carbon neutrality should focus on reducing scope 1 emissions associated with transport and heating.

The key questions that shape carbon neutral policy and a central focus of the people-powered approach to be followed in 2020 are, therefore:

 what amount of carbon emissions do we want to abate by 2030 and what amount of residual

emissions will we need to off-set after this date, both in total and in the transport and heating sectors;

 how quickly do we want to reduce and remove those carbon emissions that remain after 2030,

both in total and in the transport and heating sectors; and

 drawing from these two questions, which policies are most likely to reduce emissions from the

transport and heating sectors and what are the costs and benefits associated with them.

In other words, considering the challenge of carbon reduction over the long-term requires us to look both at the point at which we become carbon neutral, but also beyond this point, in order to understand and plan for what our trajectory to a sustainable low-carbon future looks like.

Accordingly, the policy research outlined below analyses the options for, and implications of, the abatement of emissions from the transport and heating sectors over a range of timescales.

This approach ensures that, in line with the expectations of P.27/2019 and in the extremely limited time available to produce it, this strategy:

 illustrates a range of policy scenarios that would deliver against the aim for Jersey to be carbon

neutral by 2030, with a focus on achieving net zero in the road transport and heating sectors, which account for approximately 70% of emissions;

 does not provide policy options or expenditure estimates in relation to abatement or offsets in the rest of the economy of Jersey, which account for approximately 30% of emissions; and

 also provides the range of information necessary for the citizens assembly to undertake its

deliberations.

3. Policy approaches in other jurisdictions

To identify the best policy options for Jersey, an analysis of decarbonisation policies in other jurisdictions has been carried out. Jurisdictions were selected on the basis of having ambitious carbon reduction plans in place and sharing some legal, political or physical characteristics with Jersey, as set out in Fig.6 below.

Fig.6 Jersey total Scope 1 and 2 emissions 2014-2017 9kt CO2eq)

Note: Although the UK is technically as islan economy, it's size and scale of it's economic activity differentiates it consiferably from the other island economy comparators. - Source: Oxera analysis

The diagrams below summarise the decarbonisation policies that have been considered or implemented in the jurisdictions listed, particularly in the spheres of power generation, transport and heating. The policies are colour-coded according to their effect on public (rather than household) finances.

Figure 7.1 Summary of policy approaches in other jurisdictions

France

Power generation Transport Heating Closure of all coal-fired  Road fuel tax Financial support for

power plants by 2022 upgrade of residential Eco-tax' on outbound and  heating and insulation

domestic aviation fares

Development of rail and  Subsidies to renewable inland waterways sources projects via the

Heat Fund Scrappage scheme for the

replacement of older

vehicles

Improvement  of cycling paths and new bike parking facilities

Biofuel floor aviation sector

Colour-coding: budget impact

Neutralno first-round  effect on budget

Negativeexpenditure  or revenue sacrifice required Positiveprovides  additional revenue or savings

Iceland

Power generation Transport Heating

Ban on registration of  Financial support for conventional vehicles geothermal research

Free EV parking

Investments  in district Already decarbonised State enterprises switch to  heating options

EVs

VAT exemptions to LEVs

Investments  in cycling lanes and public transport

Electric charging options for

road and marine transport

Road fuel and vehicle tax Biofuel floor aviation sector

Colour-coding: budget impact

Neutralno first-round  effect on budget

Negativeexpenditure  or revenue sacrifice required Positiveprovides  additional revenue or savings

Malta

Power generation Transport Heating

Grant schemes for domestic  Subsidy on the conversion  Subsidies for domestic heat PV systems of vehicles from petrol to  pump heating and solar

Deployment of PV panels on  LPG water heaters

public buildings Grants for buying EVs Grants for solar water Support to technologies that  Reduced registration and  heaters in non-residential

process animal waste excise duty for EVs buildings

Identification of sites for PV  New EV charging stations Utilisation of smart meters

farms

Regulatory requirements to  New tariffs to incentivise increase biofuel use energy efficiency

Biofuel floor aviation sector

Colour-coding: budget impact

Neutralno first-round  effect on budget

Negativeexpenditure  or revenue  sacrifice required Positiveprovides  additional revenue  or savings

Netherlands

Power generation Transport Heating

Closure of all coal fired  Investments  in cycling  Grants for renewable heat

power plants by 2030 routes and bike parking production

Investments  in EV charging  Ban new houses from Carbon price floor stations connecting to gas grid

Subsidies to produce  Tax exemptions for EVs

renewable electricity and  New buildings standards

gas Incentives to petrol stations  requirements

to increase biofuel sales

Regulatory support to district Biofuel supply chain  heat networks

improvements

Biofuel floor aviation sector

Colour-coding: budget impact

Neutralno first-round  effect on budget

Negativeexpenditure  or revenue sacrifice required Positiveprovides  additional revenue or savings

Norway

Power generation Transport Heating

Subsidies for R&D in the  Tax exemptions for  Subsidies to energy saving production of renewable  biodiesel, electric and  practices

energy hydrogen vehicles

Fossil-fuel heating Increased 8 transparency on  No parking fees for EVs prohibition by 2020

power grid maintenance Mandatory quota for biofuel

sales Legal standards for heating Continuous update of wind  systems in buildings

and hydropower planning  Taxes on combustion engine

guidelines vehicles from 2021 Smart meters roll-out for residential housing

Electricity certificate trading  Investments  in EV charging

scheme stations

Biofuel floor aviation sector

Colour-coding: budget impact

Neutralno first-round  effect on budget

Negativeexpenditure  or revenue  sacrifice required Positiveprovides  additional revenue  or savings

Sweden

Power generation Transport Heating

CO2 taxation Tax exemption to  Aid for conversion to heat environmentally-friendly  cars pumps, solar heating and

Investment  aid for wind and  biofuels

PV generation Parking benefits and

exemptions from congestion  Support for production and Electricity certificate trading  charges distribution of renewable

scheme

gases

Requirement for petrol

Closure of all coal-fired  stations to offer at least one  Urban development grants

power plants by 2022 renewable energy for district heating

Research grants to universities and institutes

Biofuel floor aviation sector

Colour-coding: budget impact

Neutralno first-round  effect on budget

Negativeexpenditure  or revenue  sacrifice required Positiveprovides  additional revenue  or savings

UK

Power generation Transport Heating Obligation for minimum  Government grants for EVs Regulation requiring new

shares of renewable  homes to be carbon-neutral

electricity to suppliers Supplier obligation to

provide renewable  Ban fossil-fuelled heating in Closure of all coal-fired  alternatives new houses by 2025 plants by October 2025

Investments  into EV  Grants for energy crop Support to investments in  infrastructure production renewable energy sources

via CfDs Biofuel floor aviation sector Anaerobic Digestions Demonstration Programme

Support for small-scale

renewable energy

production via FITs

Carbon price floor

Colour-coding: budget impact

Neutralno first-round  effect on budget

Negativeexpenditure  or revenue  sacrifice required Positiveprovides  additional revenue  or savings

4. Policy scenarios related to transport

The transport sector is the largest emissions source in Jersey, representing 51% of total greenhouse gas emissions according to the latest available statistics[1]. Emissions in this sector are generated by road transport, aviation and domestic shipping.

Figure 7.2 provides an overview of policies employed in other jurisdictions to reduce emissions from transport.

Fig.7.2 Overview of decarbonisation policies in transport

Road Marine Air Make emissions  Fuel tax

more costly Road tax Flight tax

Vehicle tax

Provide eco- Install cycling infra

friendly  Public transport investment

alternatives Install electric charging points

Make  Public transport subsidy alternatives  ULEVs subsidies cheaper Scrappage schemes

Biofuel supply subsidies

Eeqnufoilricberi uamnew  Biofuel content floor Biofuel content floor

Ban on conventional cars

Colour-coding: budget impact

Neutralno first-round  effect on budget

Negativeexpenditure  or revenue  sacrifice required Positiveprovides  additional revenue  or savings

In Jersey, carbon emissions from road transport amount to 118 kt CO eq, which accounts for the majority (63%) of the 187 kt CO2eq of carbon emissions from transpor 2t. It is also a segment within

transport sector over which the Government has a relatively high degree of control (as opposed

to marine and air transport, which require international cooperation for successful abatement). Therefore, this phase of analysis focuses on road transport in particular.

Based on the approaches adopted in other jurisdictions and taking into account policies already embedded within the 2014 Energy Plan, the following three measures, described as T1, T2 and T3 have been considered:

 Measure T1: facilitating the uptake of electric vehicles (EV s), by:

1. escalating existing fuel taxes to discourage the use of petrol and diesel vehicles; and
2. providing financial incentive(s) for the purchase of EVs, either in the form of a purchase grant, and/or in the form of a scrappage payment for owners of fossil fuel vehicles;

 Measure T2: imposing a ban on the registration of new or second-hand petrol and diesel

vehicles, so that they are gradually replaced by EVs over time. There would be an option to exempt diesel vehicles from the ban if they are able to transition to hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) (T3) while maintaining a sufficiently low emission intensity; and

 Measure T3: facilitating the use of second generation biodiesel (HVO) for all diesel vehicles,

subject to further technical due diligence of the feasibility of such a transition in Jersey. This could involve fuel taxation concessions for HVO[2].

Of the measures above, measures T1 and T2 were subjected to the quantitative analysis. Measure T3 was not included, due to uncertainty around technical feasibility, potential carbon savings and the associated costs of the measure35.1.

5.4.1 Summary of quantitative assessment for the road  transport sector

Figure 7.3 below shows a mid-range estimate of the potential cossts across measures T1-T2 implemented up to 2025, 2027 or 2030 (depending on the scenario) plus the cost of offsetting residual emissions from transport (cost of net zero). This is set against the social cost of carbon, which is proxy for the negative impacts of carbon emissions, that would be avoided as a result of the abatement measures[3].

 Figure 7.3 - Illustrative costs of net zero measures relative to the avoided social cost of carbon in the road transport sector

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

2025 2027 2030 Completion year for abatement measures

Cost of net zero Avoided social cost of carbon

The actual costs associated, particularly with transport measure T1, facilitating the uptake of EVs, may vary significantly depending on the financial incentive(s) offered, the timing of measures

and the extent to which the wider economic and social environment influences people to travel differently. This range of uncertainty is illustrated by the spread of the bars in Figure 7.4.

Figure 7.4 - Illustrative range of the cost of net zero measures in the road transport sector

160 140 120 100 80 60 40

20 0

2025 2027 2030 Fossil fuel ban introduced by year end

Note: The years on the horizontal axis denote the year at the end of which the ban is introduced. The low end of the range assumes no requirement for EV purchase grants and/or scrappage schemes for fossil-fuel vehicles, and an annual vehicle retirement rate of 10% (as per the modelling conducted for the 2014 Energy Plan, see 2014 Supporting document B for Oxera 07.08.2019.xls, tab transport, cell B52). For the low end of the range only, the ban on the registration of fossil fuel vehicles is assumed to be 2030 across all the bars. The high end of the range assumes an adoption of a purchase grant for EVs of £3,500 per vehicle. It is assumed that the EV grant causes an increasing the standard vehicle retirement rate of 10% for petrol and diesel cars, to 17.5% per year during the functioning of the grant scheme (it is assumed that the grant scheme starts in 2020 and terminates with the introduction of the fossil fuel vehicle ban). The costs of net zero include both the present value of the costs of abatement, as well as the present value of the expenditure of offsetting the unabated emissions. Throughout all scenarios it is assumed that unabated emissions are being offset from 2030 onwards. All costs are presented in present value terms, discounted at 3.5%, as per the HM Treasury Green Book guidance. The assessment period covers the years 2019 50. The expenditure on offsets is estimated using the forecast for the prices of ETS from National Grid.

As figure 7.4 demonstrates, a more rapid abatement programme (for example, through an earlier implementation of a ban on the registration of fossil-fuel vehicles) can lead to a lower overall cost because funding for financial incentives (measure T1b, financial incentives for EVs) is only required over a shorter period. At the same time, there may be other costs associated with implementing

a ban at such an early date, such as additional support for those less able to afford to purchase a new vehicle, that are not reflected here.

The timing of any ban on registration of new or second-hand fossil fuel vehicles (measure T2) and the degree of financial support required are closely linked to the uptake of ultra-low emissions vehicles in comparison to conventional vehicles.

Industry evidence appears to suggest that EVs are likely to reach price parity with conventional vehicles within the next ten years and, potentially, by as early as 2022. Further investigation would be needed to understand how closely the Jersey market tracks the wider market and, for example, if there might be any delay in these trends because of the scale of the local market, vehicle policies or island nature.

Figure 7.5 Industry estimates on the timing of price parity between EVs and conventional vehicles

Predicted year of price parity between fossil- Project Area

fuel vehicles and EVs

McKinsey & Co. U.S. 2025 Deloitte UK 2024 Bloomberg N/A 2024 Bloomberg EU 2022 - 2029

Source: See Bloomberg (2017), When will electric vehicles be cheaper than conventional vehicles? , 12 April, p.5, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/making-electric-vehicles-profitable, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-12/electric-vehicle-battery-shrinks-and-so-does-the-total-cost, https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/uk/Documents/manufacturing/deloitte-uk-battery-electric-vehicles.pdf.

Drawing on the above, Figure 7.6 illustrates the potential future trajectory of emissions from the road transport sector. The illustration assumes:

 an average vehicle retirement rate of 10% per year (in line with the modelling conducted for the

2014 Energy Plan[1]);

 a doubling of fuel tax, introduced uniformly over 2020 25;

 a ban on the registration of conventional vehicles instated at the end of 2027 (by which point,

as suggested by evidence in Table 5.1, it appears likely that EVs will achieve price parity with conventional vehicles); and

 a provision of a £3,500 grant per vehicle (in line with the grant currently offered in the UK[2]), for

the purchase of an EV until the end of 2027.

Figure 7.6 Evolution of emissions from road transport

120 100 80 60 40 20 0

EV Diesel Petrol

The scenario above envisages that following the implementation of the measures, the remaining emissions from road transport will be driven by:

 emissions from the remaining petrol and diesel vehicle fleet that is yet to be fully depreciated

and replaced;

 the carbon footprint of electricity used to power EVs; and

 emissions from diesel vehicles that cannot be replaced by an electric substitute[3]. To the extent

that the adoption of HVO proves feasible in Jersey, further emission abatement could be achieved.

Figure 7.7 illustrates a possible cumulative cost path associated with the implementation of the scenario that underlies Figure 7.6. In comparison, a passive transition by 2050 without government incentives, as envisaged in the Pathway 2050 energy plan would cost just under £40 million in cumulative offset payments.

Figure 7.7 - Illustration of cumulative costs of net zero measures in the road transport sector

...but a favourable scenario with minimal required intervention is also possible, 140

Grant costs  which would allow the achievement of net zero at a relatively low cost

could form a

120 substantial

expenditure

under slow

100 price

convergence

of EVs and

80 conventional

vehicles...

60

40

20

0

EV expenditure Offset costs

Note: The costs of net zero include both the present value of the costs of abatement, as well as the present value of the expenditure of offsetting the unabated emissions. Throughout all scenarios it is assumed that unabated emissions are being offset from 2030 onwards. All costs are presented in present value terms, discounted at 3.5%, as per the HM Treasury Green Book guidance. The assessment period covers the years 2019 50. The expenditure on offsets is estimated using the base case forecast for the prices of ETS from National Grid.

In the figure above a large proportion of the identified costs come from offering financial incentives for switching. No alternative assumption has been presented in this figure regarding differing levels of financial incentive. Also, the modelled cost does not net off any revenue raised (either through measure T1a or any other source). The costs presented in Fig. 7.7 therefore fall at the higher end of the range presented in Fig 7.4.

Should the uptake of ultra-low emission vehicles be faster than currently expected, it may be possible to introduce an earlier ban on the registration of fossil fuel vehicles without the need to provide financial support to switching for the same period. In those circumstances, abatement costs would be lower.

5. Policy scenarios related to heating

Heating is the second largest emissions source in Jersey, representing over 30% of total greenhouse gas emissions according to the latest (2017) statistics[1]. This includes emissions from both domestic and commercial heating. Figure 7.8 summarises policies employed in other jurisdictions to reduce emissions from heating.

Figure 7.8 - Overview of heating decarbonisation policies

Reduce energy consumption Promote alternative energy sources

Change  Tax on heating fuel Grants for biofuel/solar heaters incentives Smart metering schemes Grants for microgeneration

Active demand management schemes Grants for storage (e.g. batteries)

Ban connection to the gas grid Blend renewable gases into existing network

Explore electrification of heating, incl. the

role of battery storage

Promote Explore the use of low-carbon gases for  alternative heating incl. hydrogen and CCS primary

Subsidise transmission-connected  sources renewables

Use residual energy in district heating

Increase Upgrade existing properties energy Update building standards efficiency

Colour-coding: budget impact

Neutralno first-round effect on budget

Negativeexpenditure or revenue sacrifice required Positiveprovides additional revenue or savings

For Jersey, electrification appears to have the most significant potential for decarbonisation of heating. Jersey has high levels of installed interconnection capacity with access to low-carbon imported electricity and relatively high penetration rates for electricity in the heating sector. Electrification reduces carbon emissions in two ways:

 electric heating systems are more efficient than systems running on oil (which is the second

most widely used energy source for domestic heating on the Island, after electricity ). This means that, all other things being equal, a property heated with electricity consumes less energy than one heated with oil; and

 electricity has a lower carbon factor than any other heating energy source available on the

Island. This means that for any given amount of energy consumed, an electric heating system emits the least carbon.

Based on the review of approaches adopted in other jurisdictions and taking into account policies already embedded within the 2014 Energy Plan, the following measures, H1 and H2 have been assessed:

 Measure H1: facilitating the replacement of oil and LPG[2] heating systems in both domestic

and commercial properties with electric heating systems; and

 Measure H2: upgrading the insulation of the domestic housing stock constructed prior to the

2001 Building Bye Laws which introduced energy efficiency requirements.

5.5.1  Summary of quantitative assessment for the heating sector

Figure 7.9 presents the total cost of policies to abate heating emissions and the cost of offsetting residual emissions that are not abated (costs of net zero). This is set against the social cost of carbon that would be avoided as a result of the abatement measures42.

Figure 7.9 - Illustrative costs of net zero measures relative to the avoided social cost of carbon in the heating sector

250 200 150 100 50 0

2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Completion year for abatement measures

Costs of net zero Avoided social costs of carbon (central)

Note: The avoided social cost of carbon is calculated using the non-traded cost of carbon, sourced from HM Treasury Green Book guidance. The amount of emission abated is calculated as the difference between the level of emissions under the proposed abatement measures and the level of emissions at the end of 2019. The costs of net zero include both the present value of the costs of abatement, as well as the present value of the expenditure of offsetting the unabated emissions. Throughout all scenarios it is assumed that unabated emissions are being offset from 2030 onwards. All costs are presented in present value terms, discounted at 3.5%, as per the HM Treasury Green Book guidance. The assessment period covers the years 2019 50. The expenditure on offsets is estimated using the high forecast for the prices of ETS from National Grid.

42 As prescribed by the Green Book https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/794737/valuation-of-energy-use-and- greenhouse-gas-emissions-for-appraisal-2018.pdf

Figure 7.10 illustrates how the costs of net zero are split between abatement and offsetting, depending on the specific timeframe for abatement measures. This shows that delaying the abatement measures has two effects:

 spreading the investment over a longer period of time decreases the total present value of

costs (as costs incurred further away in the future are discounted more heavily); and

 a more prolonged abatement process comes with an increased exposure to the price of

offsets. Current evidence suggests that the price of offsets is likely to substantially increase in the near future (see section 5.7), which suggests that delaying the abatement programme will likely increase the overall cost of delivering the net zero policy in Jersey.

Figure 7.10 - Illustrative split of the cost of net zero measures in the heating sector between offset and abatement costs

160 140 120 100 80 60 40

Cost of offset at high ETS price

20 0

2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Completion year for abatement measures

Abatement Offsetting: base price Offsetting: high price

Note: The costs of net zero include both the present value of the costs of abatement, as well as the present value of the expenditure of offsetting the unabated emissions. Throughout all scenarios it is assumed that unabated emissions are being offset from 2030 onwards. All costs are presented in present value terms, discounted at 3.5%, as per the HM Treasury Green Book guidance. The assessment period covers the years 2019 50. The expenditure on offsets is estimated using the forecast for the prices of ETS from National Grid.

Figure 7.11 shows how carbon emissions might evolve over time under a scenario of full electrification of domestic and commercial heating by 2030. The emissions produced after 2030 originate from the carbon footprint of electricity used to power the heating systems.

Figure 7.11 Illustrative evolution of emissions from domestic and commercial heating

200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049 Domestic sector Commercial sector

Note: The figure considers emissions from the existing property stock only. As the new properties are built in the future, all else equal, the overall emissions will increase. However, based on discussions with industry, it is unlikely that modern properties will be equipped with fossil-fuel heating systems, so are unlikely to require any further abatement. Moreover, to the extent that the energy management solutions become more efficient, the average consumption per property will tend to decrease over time across all properties, which may more than offset the upward pressure on emissions from the addition of new (relatively energy-efficient) housing stock.

Figure 7.12 presents the illustrative spilt of the total cost of implementing the heating emission abatement measures by 2030, split between abatement and offset expenditure.

Figure 7.12 Illustration of cumulative costs of net zero measures in the heating sector

140 120 100 80 60 40

20 0

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049 Abatement Offsets

Note: The costs of net zero include both the present value of the costs of abatement, as well as the present value of the expenditure of offsetting the unabated emissions. Throughout all scenarios it is assumed that unabated emissions are being offset from 2030 onwards. All costs are presented in present value terms, discounted at 3.5%, as per the HM Treasury Green Book guidance. The assessment period covers the years 2019 50. The expenditure on offsets is estimated using the base case forecast for the prices of ETS from National Grid.

The costs presented in the figure above represent incentives necessary to ensure that consumers find it beneficial to switch to electric heating alternatives[3]. The distribution of costs between consumers, the electricity industry and government can vary, particularly in light of the choice of fiscal policy measure and the wider economic and social issues faced by households and businesses[4].

Figure 7.13 provides an illustration of what the cost of net zero in the domestic and commercial heating sectors could be, depending on the assumed average cost of equipment and insulation required for the abatement, the target year for completion of the abatement measures and the price of offsets.

Figure 7.13 - Illustrative range of the cost of net zero measures in the heating sector

In the scenario of high cost of heating and insulation equipment, high offset prices and a 2030 target for completion of all abatement measures (heating and insulation), the total cost may amount to £147m

180

159

160 153

147  146  148

140

120

100

80

60

53  51  52  53  54

40

20 In the scenario of low cost of heating and insulation equipment, low offset prices and a 2035 target for completion of all abatement measures (heating and insulation), the total cost may amount to £51m

0

2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Completion year for abatement measures

Note: The costs of net zero include both the present value of the costs of abatement, as well as the present value of the expenditure of offsetting the unabated emissions. Throughout all scenarios it is assumed that unabated emissions are being offset from 2030 onwards. All costs are presented in present value terms, discounted at 3.5%, as per the HM Treasury Green Book guidance. The assessment period covers the years 2019 50. The expenditure on offsets estimated using the base case forecast for the prices of ETS from National Grid.

The quantitative assessment for the net zero measures in the heating sector was conducted separately for domestic and commercial properties. The two subsections below describe the approach taken in the assessment.

Residential heating

This scenario[5] assumes that:

 domestic properties in Jersey currently heated with oil and LPG will be retrofitted with air

source heat pumps, electric boilers or a combination of smart panels and storage heaters; and that

 properties requiring insulation (depending on the type of property) are treated with one or

more installations of loft insulation; cavity wall insulation; draught proofing; hot water cylinder insulation; and/or window upgrade.

Figures 7.14 and 7.15 show the illustrative cumulative cost of emission abatement (no offsets included) in the domestic sector under different target years, and the associated emissions trajectory.

Figure 7.14 Range of the costs of insulation and electrification upgrades in the domestic heating sector under different abatement timelines

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049

Completion year for abatement measures

2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Note: All costs are presented in present value terms, discounted at 3.5%, as per the HM Treasury Green Book guidance. The assessment period covers the years 2019 50. The expenditure presented in the figure above does not include the cost of offsets.

Figure 7.15 - Illustrative evolution of emissions in the domestic heating sector under different abatement timelines

120 105 90 75 60 45 30 15 0

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049

Completion year for abatement measures

2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Heating of commercial properties

Analysis of the heating of commercial properties was based on the total amount of energy consumed by industry and Government, as reported in the Jersey Energy Trends Report[1].

This approach was taken because the data limitations in relation to the distribution of size (and heating requirements) for commercial properties, do not permit for more granular modelling to be undertaken[2].